Showing posts with label success. Show all posts
Showing posts with label success. Show all posts
December 24, 2013
May 21, 2013
Temple Stakes Preview: Sprinting our way to Haydock success
"Sole Power didn't improve when making a winning return to the UK in the Palace House last time, a performance figure of 122 matching that which he has achieved on three occasions previously, but the visual impression was startling..."
Timeform's Matt Gardner gets to grips with the feature race on Saturday, the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock Park...
As is so often the case when previewing a race ante-post, the one unfathomable with regards to the Temple Stakes is not who will run, but in what state the ground will be.
Assessing a handicap ante-post is a nightmare, as you then have marks and possible alternative targets to take into account, but it is often more straightforward with pattern races, as connections tend to point out just which race they are likely to assign their charge or, indeed, if they intend not to run at all. Roger Charlton, for example, was very helpful this morning by announcing that Mince would skip Haydock and instead head to Chantilly for the Prix du Gros-Chene at Chantilly next weekend.
That leaves us with a field of 19 to wade through, though once you deduct the sprinters that are all of a similar ability, yet unlikely to trouble the judge in a race of this nature, you are really only left with six. Eight at a push.
The pair that I'm struggling to include in the "potential winners" category are Kingsgate Native and Tangerine Trees, though if I'm being fair they both ran excellent races to finish second and third respectively in the Palace House at Newmarket. Kingsgate Native is something of an enigma these days, certainly talented but also untrustworthy, and he is just as likely to bomb out as he is to get his head in front for the first time since winning the Temple in 2010, whilst Tangerine Trees, who is seemingly in the middle of a revival, could go well if he continues to regain his form but will need to be right at his peak to trouble a few of these.
The solid option, as has been the case in the top-end sprints for a while now and will continue to be so unless something else emerges in the near future, is the Eddie Lynam-trained Sole Power, who more often than not runs his race. He arguably should have won more in his career to date, his defeat in the corresponding race last year at the hands of Bated Breath particularly painful for my wallet, but it is difficult to knock either his consistency or his attitude.
Sole Power didn't improve when making a winning return to the UK in the Palace House last time, a performance figure of 122 matching that which he has achieved on three occasions previously, but the visual impression was startling and it is possible to argue that he looked better than ever, with the five-year-old still straining Johnny Murtagh's reins two furlongs from home despite the race having been run at a decent pace.
Sole Power had his optimum conditions at Newmarket, a well-run five furlongs on quick ground, and if that comes about again on Saturday he will be a force to be feared.
Having mentioned that the sprint division could do with a couple of additions, some new kids on the block as it were, it would be wrong of us to not discuss the chances of Reckless Abandon, Pearl Secret and Swiss Spirit.
Of that trio Reckless Abandon is the youngest and, in the eyes of many, boasts the most potential, kicking off his three-year-old campaign with an unbeaten record which includes triumphs in the Norfolk Stakes, the Prix Morny and the Middle Park. He is a proper speedball and it is refreshing to see connections sticking to their guns, right in the assertion that he is a sprinter, rather than attempting to stretch out his stamina for a tilt at the Guineas (are you listening Moohaajim and co?).
The problem facing Reckless Abandon is the same one to have faced many a three-year-old sprinter, in that they find it most difficult to mix it with their elders. If anything this issue is exacerbated with Clive Cox's charge, as he is forced to carry a 4 lb Group 1 penalty, and on his first run of the season he could just prove susceptible.
Pearl Secret is a four-year-old but has taken to the track on an equal number of occasions to Reckless Abandon, five to be precise. He made an instant impression, landing his first three assignments in impressive fashion prior to taking a listed race at Sandown, where he wasn't quite so flashy but was disadvantaged by the distinct lack of pace. He carried my cash on his first foray into Group 1 company in the Nunthorpe last year but could hardly have had more go against him, racing on the unfavoured stand-side having had just about the worst of the draw before being hampered a furlong out, finishing with any amount of running left.
It is well worth forgiving that effort, and the suspicion remains that he will develop into a real top-notch sprinter, though the murmurs emanating from the David Barron camp are that they wouldn't mind a spot of rain before Saturday. Looking at the forecast, I'm not so sure that their prayers will be answered.
Swiss Spirit has had much more racing than either of the two we've just discussed but my inkling is that we are yet to see the best of him. He has always struck as one with plenty of talent and that talent has surfaced on occasion, particularly so when scoring in a Group 3 at Newbury last year, but his headstrong ways often got the better of him. A change of stable from David Elsworth to John Gosden over the summer caught the eye, as did his performance in the Duke of York on his reappearance, making good headway approaching the final furlong before fading in the closing stages.
Swiss Spirit is sure to be sharper for that run and, such is the pace he has shown in his races, he will not be inconvenienced by the return to five furlongs. If anything, he could thrive at this distance and, allied with a faster surface, could finally show the latent ability he has long since hinted at possessing.
The others to make up our shortlist are Maarek and Spirit Quartz, with the first mentioned of definite interest were the heavens to open and the latter a consistent performer, if just a shade below the top level.
Where does that leave us in terms of a bet then? Well, if I'm honest, I'm not entirely sure. Sole Power is the solid option and created an excellent impression when winning the Palace House, so it is incredibly difficult to take him on, but both Pearl Secret and Swiss Spirit boast confirmed ability alongside as yet untapped potential.
The wise play is to get Sole Power on side, safe in the knowledge of a good run, and to also take a bit of a chance on one of the exciting horses. Pearl Secret has the most scope for improvement but may want a bit more juice in the ground so I will take Swiss Spirit, who could thrive with this combination of five furlongs on a quick surface.
Recommendations:
Back Sole Power @ 4.216/5
Back Swiss Spirit @ 11.010/1
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April 9, 2013
Roma v Lazio: Totti can inspire the Giallorossi to derby success
"The price can perhaps be explained by Lazio’s poor form in the spring. They’re 16th in the second half of the season in Serie A, a dip that’s attributable to injuries to key players..."
Back Roma to win @ 2.021/1
James Horncastle previews Monday night's Rome derby and believes Serie A legend Francesco Totti can add to his goal tally in a Roma victory...
Roma v Lazio
Monday 19:45, live on ESPN
When you get to Francesco Totti's age it's good to set objectives in order to motivate yourself to keep going.
In the long-term, the Roma captain wants to score the 48 goals required to reach the former Lazio striker Silvio Piola and become the all-time top scorer in the history of Serie A.
In the short-term, he aims to find the net in Monday night's eagerly anticipated Rome derby. Because if Totti were to do so, he would join Dino da Costa and Marco Delvecchio as the players to have scored most against Lazio in Roma's history.
Totti, it must be said, has traditionally found the going quite tough against Lazio. He has scored only eight times against them in 20 years, whereas Da Costa managed to get nine in the space of just two and a half between October 1956 and April 1959. Delvecchio did it in five between 1997 and 2002.
Although Totti's last goal against Lazio came two years ago, there's reason to believe he'll add to his total on Monday.
From a personal perspective, the 36-year-old is having an excellent season. Totti is the only Serie A player to have reached double figures for goals (11) and assists (10) this term. Italy coach Cesare Prandelli has even spoken about the prospect of calling him up for the 2014 World Cup should he be performing at this level this time next year.
Back him To Score at the best price available once the market becomes more liquid.
The exchange makes Roma favourites to win the 138th derby at 2.021/1. That might strike some as strange. Fifth placed Lazio have won the last three derbies in a row and are three points ahead of Roma in seventh. So why does the market have them at 4.1n/a?
The price can perhaps be explained by Lazio's poor form in the spring. They're 16th in the second half of the season in Serie A, a dip that's attributable to injuries to key players in particular Miroslav Klose - who, according to coach Vladimir Petkovic is still a slight doubt for Monday along with Stefano Mauri. Add into the mix some poor officiating, slices of bad luck and going deep into the Europa League where they're in the quarter-finals and you have your answer.
Lazio lost 2-0 to Fenerbahçe in Istanbul on Thursday night. As it happens, they've never won in Serie A after an away leg in the Europa League this season. They felt particularly hard done by on the sending off of Ogenyi Onazi and on the penalty that Stefan Radu was harshly adjudged to have given away. While it's not as though Lazio need getting up for the derby, they've promised to channel their anger at these perceived injustices into it anyway.
Which brings us nicely on to discipline. There have been seven red cards in the last four Rome derbies. So why not back there to be another one at 2.89/5.
Also penalties can be anticipated. There have been five scored in the last seven meetings between Roma and Lazio. Three of them have been put away by Hernanes, who is also worth considering to score at anytime at the best price available. Given there have been Over 2.5 Goals in three of the last five derbies too, it might be worth getting on that too even at 1.8810/11.
Recommended Bets
Back Roma to win @ 2.021/1
Back Francesco Totti To Score @ best price available
Back Hernanes to score @ best price available
Back a Sending Off @ 2.89/5
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.8810/11
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January 4, 2013
NFL Post-Season Betting: What are the seeds of play-off success?
"Mark Twain was right: facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable"
Romilly Evans examines the rankings for the NFL play-offs and wonders if the stats will bear them out
Rankings are there for a reason. That said, any seeding system - by its very nature - can only be premised on past performance. It cannot foretell what is to come. And this glaringly obvious observation has been eloquently demonstrated by the NFL play-offs, where many prominent seeds have fallen by the wayside time and time again along the years.
But a journalist waxing predictable about the glorious unpredictability of sport is about as insightful and rare as a comedian talking about the tears of a clown. So, in order to avoid a similar fate, I'll try and restrict my reflections to the salient statistics for the dog-eat-dog landscape of play-off country.
In the post-season, a high seeding affords the leading four teams in each conference homefield advantage and even a bye week in which to rest their weary limbs, while the lesser light contest Wildcard Weekend.
Home games are undeniably a huge advantage in the NFL. Both stats and theory bear this out. And so does the narrower frame of play-off history, where 66% of home sides have prevailed in their opening matches (88 games) since the current 12-team format was introduced in 1990.
Still, while all four home teams were successful in the 2011 Wildcard Round, three of the four away sides defied the stats in 2010. Mark Twain was right: facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable.
So here are a few sturdier numbers which should inform your punting pointers (again, since 1990)...
• No AFC No.5 seed has ever made it to the Super Bowl. That's bad news for this year's Indianapolis Colts.
• Only two out of 16 NFC No.4 seeds have won their Divisional game. Which means the Washington Redskins' post-season stay could be short-lived.
And if you're more interested in this week's Wildcard Round...
• The AFC No.3 seed is 78% likely to win their Wildcard game. So Texans fans can put the champagne on ice.
• While in the NFC, the No.4 seed is deemed 73% likely to prevail in their opening match. So it's good and bad news for the Skins.
Or if you're looking further down the road to the Super Bowl...
• Beware the top dogs.
In the past four years alone, five No.1 seeds have lost their play-off openers. And 2009 is the only time since 1993 when both No. 1 seeds (AFC and NFC) have made it to the Super Bowl. This year's pre-eminent pair of the Denver Broncos and the Atlanta Falcons should accordingly take note. More recently, there have been eight instances since 2000, when one of these top seeds has crashed out early doors, while the other has wound up as the losing Super Bowl finalist.
• 2011: the No. 1 Green Bay Packers lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 New England Patriots lose the Super Bowl.
• 2007: the No. 1 Dallas Cowboys lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 New England Patriots lose the Super Bowl.
• 2006: the No. 1 San Diego Chargers lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 Chicago Bears lose the Super Bowl.
• 2005: the No. 1 Indianapolis Colts lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 Seattle Seahawks lose the Super Bowl.
• 2004: the No. 1 Pittsburgh Steelers lose the Conference game, the No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles lose the Super Bowl.
• 2002: the No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles lose the Conference game, the No. 1 Oakland Raiders lose the Super Bowl.
• 2001: the No. 1 Pittsburgh Steelers lose the Conference game, the No. 1 Rams lose the Super Bowl.
• 2000: the No. 1 Tennessee Titans lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 Giants lose the Super Bowl.
Whichever way you cut the statistical deck, though, it's an inevitable conclusion that Wildcard Weekend (formerly known as Walkover Weekend) is no longer the province of uncompetitive match-ups. In fact, in five of the last six Super Bowls, at least one finalist was a protagonist of the Wildcard Round.
The seeds of doubt have once again been sown. My, isn't sport gloriously unpredictable?
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September 3, 2012
US Racing Preview: Shanghai Hopeful of success at Saratoga
Shanghai Bobby could show quite a bit of improvement on his 112p rating now that he steps up from a pair of good wins at around five furlongs...
Simon Rowlands looks ahead to Monday's racing in the US...
In much the same way that there is no "I" in "team", but both "I" and "me" in Timeform, there is no "u" (pronounced "you") in Labor Day in the US but there is in Labour Day in Canada. Make of that what you will.
Labor Day, or Labour Day, falls on the first Monday in September and means that punters and punsters alike have plenty of good racing to go at in North America on the first day of the week for a change.
Just about the most prestigious race of all is the G2 Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga (due off at 16:52 local time, 21:52 BST). With $300k in purse money, this seven-furlong race should go some way to clarifying the pecking order among the top juvenile males. The race was won by Currency Swap in 2011, a colt who is not far off the best sprinters/milers 12 months on.
Bern Identity was top Timeform juvenile in North America for a while, but his win in the Sanford Stakes here in July was workmanlike rather than better, and the runner-up that day, Handsome Jack, had been given a slightly bigger beating by Shanghai Bobby previously.
Shanghai Bobby is a son of Harlan's Holiday, who was high-class at nine and ten furlongs, and he could show quite a bit of improvement on his 112p rating now that he steps up from a pair of good wins at around five furlongs.
With a number of unknowns in opposition, not least his stable-companions Lawn Man and Overanalyze, support for Shanghai Bobby cannot be with maximum confidence. But he sets a good standard, with the likelihood of more to come, and looks the one to beat.
Del Mar stages the other G2 on Labor Day, the Yellow Ribbon Handicap for fillies and mares over eight and a half furlongs on turf (post time 18:00 locally, 02:00 on Tuesday BST).
The race is something of a rerun of the G2 John C Mabee Stakes at course and distance in August. City To City got up on the line that day to deny All Star Heart, and the pair oppose on the same terms while dominating the Morning Line along with the lightly-raced Byrony.
However, it would be folly to overlook the Mabee third, Go Forth North, who lines up 3 lb better off for one and a half lengths and has plenty of form in the book which suggests she can go close at a bigger price. She made the running that day but has performed well from off the pace, too.
Go Forth North does not win often, it has to be said, but her consistency could well see her hit the board again and a "show" bet (to finish in first three) on the Tote is recommended.
Parx racetrack near Philadelphia stages some fine racing, not least the $350k G3 Smarty Jones (16:40 local time, 21:40 BST) over an extended mile on dirt. Dwyer Stakes winner Teeth of The Dog deserves to be popular under ideal conditions, despite conceding weight to the majority of his rivals, and the main question is whether he will be a value price. Anything over 3.0 would make appeal.
The Labour Day meet at Woodbine in Canada features a couple of $200k races for two-year-olds, but a better proposition for punters may be the $125k Algoma Stakes (due off at 13:57 locally, 18:57 BST). Awesome Fire is the Morning Line favo(u)rite but drops in distance back on a synthetic surface and looks to have plenty on her hands with Tee Game, Casa Loma and possibly It's Gail.
Additionally, Awesome Fire's come-from-behind style is helped by a strong pace up front, which is by no means certain to unfold here. She is worth laying if at 4.0 or shorter on Betfair.
Recommendations
1 pt win Shanghai Bobby
1 pt show (Tote) Go Forth North
1 pt win Teeth of The Dog
lay to lose 2 pts Awesome Fire
Bet on the big international race meetings over the next six weeks and you could win a VIP trip to the Breeders' Cup. Find out more about our offer HERE
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March 10, 2011
Follow The Money: Eyre Square aims for first success
Follow the Money 
/ Follow The Money / 10 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
/ Follow The Money / 10 March 2011 / Leave a Comment One of today's movers wants to come out of the shadows with a first win
"Bearneen Boy has been well backed from [9.4] in to [6.2]."
Today's Follow The Money comes from Carlisle and Folkestone...
Our first selection come from Carlisle in the 14:10 where Eyre Square has been supported from [2.06] in to [1.84]. Keith Reveley's runner is switching back to hurdles today and ran with some promise in his two previous novice hurdle starts last season. Switching to fences this season, he's won three of his last five over fences. He looks to be improving all the time and punters feel he can gain a first success over hurdles as he runs here without a penalty.
Next we move to today's negative in the 14:50 at Folkestone where Neil Harvey has drifted from [2.47] out to [3.6]. Nick Gifford trained runner was a bumper and hurdle winner last season and he ran well on his chase debut last month after being off the track for 696 days. He could clearly build on that run today, but punters are looking to take him on, maybe they feel he could bounce and today's good ground could also be against him as both his wins have come on heavy ground.
Our last selection comes from Folkestone and in the 15:55 where Bearneen Boy has been well backed from [9.4] in to [6.2]. This former Irish point to point winner has very little to recommend him on recent form. He did, however, win over Course and Distance back in February last year and, as he runs off the same mark today, punters are hoping he can repeat that success today.
Recommended bets:
Back Eyre Square @ [1.84] Carlisle 14:10
Lay Neil Harvey @ [3.6] Folkestone 14:50
Back Bearneen Boy @ [6.2] Folkestone 15:55
Today's Follow The Money comes from Carlisle and Folkestone......
Today's market movers come from Fontwell, Lingfield and Catterick...
Today's market movers come from Newcastle, Exeter and Southwell....
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