Watford v Crystal Palace: Two club legends give their verdict on the Playoff Final

"Although Palace defended well against Brighton, I really can’t see Watford not scoring at Wembley. I think the game will get stretched towards the end of normal time and Watford will win it 2-1 (10.09/1)."

- Nick Wright

It's Watford v Crystal Palace in the Championship Playoff Final. Callum Davis spoke to Shaun Derry and Nick Wright, two men who know what it's like to reach the Premier League through the playoffs with Crystal Palace (in 2004) and Watford (in 1999) respectively, about their memories of the showpiece occasion and who they fancy for promotion this time round...

What are your memories of the game?

Shaun Derry (SD): My main memory of the game is that it was incredibly tight. We were coming into the game as underdogs while West Ham had been relegated the previous season and everyone fancied them to go back up. We didn't let any of that talk faze us at all in the build up to the game and our preparation couldn't have been better. The manager, Iain Dowie, kept drilling into us that we were more prepared than them and he turned out to be completely right. They were probably more nervous than us as the pressure was all on them to get promoted and as a result they didn't really threaten us. Despite the significance of the game, we were all very relaxed as a team and I think that helped us to play to our fullest potential on the day.

Nick, what are your memories of your spectacular goal?

Nick Wright (NW): I get asked this a lot and I honestly remember it all perfectly! As the ball came over I was in my usual position on the edge of the six yards box and I remember Andy Todd was defending under the bar. Andy headed the ball out to me with more of a looping header rather than a proper clearance. It all happened very quickly but as the ball came over my shoulder I just focused on getting as good a contact on it as it I could. I had to look through a pair of legs to see where the ball had gone but as soon as I saw the net move I knew I'd scored it. From then I remember I ran as fast as I could up the other end of the pitch towards the Watford fans where I was pole axed by Paul Robinson from behind with a rugby tackle that could have genuinely ended my career!

Was it the highlight of your career?

SD: Oh of course yes. Obviously it gave me my first taste of the Premier League and I was incredibly relieved and thankful to be given the opportunity to play at the top level with Palace. But more than that I was proud of the way we went about it. Iain Dowie had taken over near the beginning of the season when we were second from bottom of the Championship and at that stage we weren't thinking about the playoffs at all, it was more about making sure that we were going to stay up.

To go from that position to ending up in the Playoff Final and then getting promoted was an incredible experience. Iain Dowie managed to create a real close knit group of a team with a great team spirit and I see a lot of that team spirit in this season's Palace side.

NW: Oh definitely, people always say that their dream as a boy was to score in an FA Cup Final, and that was certainly mine too, but let me tell you the feeling of scoring that goal was even better. To score the best goal of my career in the biggest game in the club's history to take them to the Premier League was unreal.

What do you make of the current side?

SD: I always keep an eye out for how Palace do because it's still a club which means an awful lot to me. Just over two years ago they were close to going out of business and to see where they are now is a real pleasure for me to watch. They've taken huge steps since those dark days and I really hope they can go one step further and make the Premier League.

For me the core of their side is the back four and the two holding players in front. Everything they do is based around that stability which they have at the back, and in Miles Jedinak they have a real leader who has stepped up to the plate as captain without Paddy McCarthy in the side. I wasn't surprised at all to see how well they played against Brighton and that performance was all down to the back six making themselves so difficult to break down. It allowed Palace to soak up the pressure from Brighton and gave players like Wilfried Zaha and Yannick Bolasie the room to break on the counter.

NW: I do a lot work for Watford Radio so I've been fortunate enough to watch them a lot this season so I've been able to keep good track of them. I have to say that they're an exceptionally talented side. Their quality of movement, passing ability and creativity has been fantastic to watch.

My only concern is that they have relied on a handful of key players to get the job done this season and when those players don't perform the team tend not to function either.

Can your team win?

SD: I've got a sneaky feeling that Palace can do it. In many ways Watford and Brighton are very similar sides, they both like to keep possession and attack as much as possible and, as they proved at the Amex, Palace are well suited to play against a team like that. If the Palace back six can keep Watford's front three of Vydra, Anya and Deeney quiet then I think they'll will nick a win just like we did in 2004.

NW: Yeah of course they can and I'm fully expecting them to. I was at the game on Friday against Leicester and the atmosphere at the end after that finish to the game was unbelievable. The town and the team are on a massive high and I'd even go as far to say that the momentum is more with Watford than it is with Palace. There are also some good omens on our side as well, it's seven years since Watford were promoted in 2006 and it was seven years before that when we won the Play-Off Final against Bolton. I'm just praying that the seven year rule continues to be true for us!

Your recommended bet?

SD: Like I said I think Palace will try to make it a tight game and will try and soak up all the pressure from Watford. I have a funny feeling that it could be a repeat of the 2004 final so I'll go for Palace to shave it 1-0 (9.08/1) . Saying that I can see it being incredibly close! To a certain extent Watford are an unknown quantity with the amount of foreign players they have in the team so Palace will need to do their homework.

NW: Although Palace defended well against Brighton, I really can't see Watford not scoring at Wembley. I think the game will get stretched towards the end of normal time and Watford will win it 2-1 (10.09/1). 

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Home and Away: Yeovil to extend impressive run in play-off six pointer

Bet 1: Yeovil Town (HOME) @ 2.98

Bet 2: MK Dons (AWAY) @ 2.54

Jonno Turner looks to build on a value win in Germany yesterday with two more picks - this time from League One.

We're off to Somerset for our first pick of the day - and it's a massive game in the League One play-off picture, as sixth placed Yeovil Town host fifth placed Swindon at Huish Park.

The home side have lost just one of their last 13 outings, and that will give them much confidence ahead of the final push, as they eye a final place in the top six.

Boss Gary Johnson will be delighted with his side's consistency of late - and eight wins from their last nine on their own patch puts them in pole position to take maximum points from this clash, against a Swindon side which has been wobbling in recent weeks.

The Glovers have been in lethal attacking form in recent weeks, and 21 goals scored in their last eight in front of their own fans suggests that they have more than enough quality to overcome their visitors here.

And Johnson has strengthened his squad further - bringing in Latvia international midfielder Vitalijs Maksimenko from Brighton and Charlton striker Jordan Cook - who are both expected to play a part this evening.

Swindon travel to Yeovil under a bit of a cloud, with ex-boss Paolo di Canio having walked out on the Robins, and sparking a downturn in form.

Kevin MacDonald is the new man tasked with leading the away side to success, but there is much confusion around the club at the moment - with a transfer embargo meaning that they can't bring players in - and that threatens to derail their whole season.

Just one win from five - and a 2-1 loss at Brentford in their last outing on the road - isn't the kind of return that the Robins will need to show if they are to secure their place in the play-offs.

But Swindon have slipped so much that they are now within catching distance of 10th place - and anything but a win here will put them at real risk of dropping out of the leading pack completely.

MacDonald will be without influential midfielder Alan Navarro, who is injured - and he has had to turn to the youth players to make up a full squad for this clash.

Bet 1: Yeovil Town (HOME) @ 2.98

Staying in the third tier now, as MK Dons travel to Staffordshire to face Crewe Alexandra at Gresty Road - and Karl Robinson's side will be desperate to build on an impressive 3-0 victory over Tranmere last weekend.

The Dons go into this tie sitting 12th in the table - and that will be a disappointment to them as they would have been looking to make an impact on the play-offs as a minimum this year.

But so tight is this division that a win could lift the visitors to 57 points - and with a couple of wins of the top seven, with the end of the campaign in sight.

Robinson's side have certainly hit form at the right time, and just one loss from their last seven suggests that they have a determination about them that makes them very hard to beat.

And the away side have lost just two of their last nine on the road - an enviable return at any level.

Hosts Crewe line up for this clash sitting two below their guests in 14th, and look set for mid table obscurity this season.

Steve Davis' charges are 12 points off the play-offs and 15 points off the relegation zone, which suggests that, although they have nothing to play for, they have nothing to worry about either.

And no wins from four on their own patch indicates that the Alex may struggle in this encounter, as they welcome a Dons side full of momentum.

Davis will be without teenage starlet Max Clayton, who has been called up to the England U19s squad, and will be looking for his attackers to step up to the plate tonight - having not scored more than a single goal in any of their last five home games.

Bet 2: MK Dons (AWAY) @ 2.54

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NFL Post-Season Betting: What are the seeds of play-off success?

"Mark Twain was right: facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable"

Romilly Evans examines the rankings for the NFL play-offs and wonders if the stats will bear them out

Rankings are there for a reason. That said, any seeding system - by its very nature - can only be premised on past performance. It cannot foretell what is to come. And this glaringly obvious observation has been eloquently demonstrated by the NFL play-offs, where many prominent seeds have fallen by the wayside time and time again along the years.

But a journalist waxing predictable about the glorious unpredictability of sport is about as insightful and rare as a comedian talking about the tears of a clown. So, in order to avoid a similar fate, I'll try and restrict my reflections to the salient statistics for the dog-eat-dog landscape of play-off country.

In the post-season, a high seeding affords the leading four teams in each conference homefield advantage and even a bye week in which to rest their weary limbs, while the lesser light contest Wildcard Weekend.

Home games are undeniably a huge advantage in the NFL. Both stats and theory bear this out. And so does the narrower frame of play-off history, where 66% of home sides have prevailed in their opening matches (88 games) since the current 12-team format was introduced in 1990.

Still, while all four home teams were successful in the 2011 Wildcard Round, three of the four away sides defied the stats in 2010. Mark Twain was right: facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable.

So here are a few sturdier numbers which should inform your punting pointers (again, since 1990)...

• No AFC No.5 seed has ever made it to the Super Bowl. That's bad news for this year's Indianapolis Colts.

• Only two out of 16 NFC No.4 seeds have won their Divisional game. Which means the Washington Redskins' post-season stay could be short-lived.

And if you're more interested in this week's Wildcard Round...

• The AFC No.3 seed is 78% likely to win their Wildcard game. So Texans fans can put the champagne on ice.

• While in the NFC, the No.4 seed is deemed 73% likely to prevail in their opening match. So it's good and bad news for the Skins.

Or if you're looking further down the road to the Super Bowl...

• Beware the top dogs.

In the past four years alone, five No.1 seeds have lost their play-off openers. And 2009 is the only time since 1993 when both No. 1 seeds (AFC and NFC) have made it to the Super Bowl. This year's pre-eminent pair of the Denver Broncos and the Atlanta Falcons should accordingly take note. More recently, there have been eight instances since 2000, when one of these top seeds has crashed out early doors, while the other has wound up as the losing Super Bowl finalist.

• 2011: the No. 1 Green Bay Packers lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 New England Patriots lose the Super Bowl.

• 2007: the No. 1 Dallas Cowboys lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 New England Patriots lose the Super Bowl.

• 2006: the No. 1 San Diego Chargers lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 Chicago Bears lose the Super Bowl.

• 2005: the No. 1 Indianapolis Colts lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 Seattle Seahawks lose the Super Bowl.

• 2004: the No. 1 Pittsburgh Steelers lose the Conference game, the No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles lose the Super Bowl.

• 2002: the No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles lose the Conference game, the No. 1 Oakland Raiders lose the Super Bowl.

• 2001: the No. 1 Pittsburgh Steelers lose the Conference game, the No. 1 Rams lose the Super Bowl.

• 2000: the No. 1 Tennessee Titans lose the Divisional game, the No. 1 Giants lose the Super Bowl.

Whichever way you cut the statistical deck, though, it's an inevitable conclusion that Wildcard Weekend (formerly known as Walkover Weekend) is no longer the province of uncompetitive match-ups. In fact, in five of the last six Super Bowls, at least one finalist was a protagonist of the Wildcard Round.

The seeds of doubt have once again been sown. My, isn't sport gloriously unpredictable?

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Championship Playoff Result: Swans reach the Premier League

Championship / Joe Dyer / 30 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Scott Sinclair was Swansea's hero

"Wembley witnessed a to-and-fro classic."

Wembley witnesses another goalfest as Swansea edge the £90m match

The Championship's finest did it again, serving up a promotion classic as Reading and Swansea fought out a six goal thriller that ended with the Welsh side reaching the promised land of the Premier League.

The Swans sent their followers into dream land with a three goal first half to leave the Royals in a state of shock and reward In-Play backers of the 3-0 halftime score at [95.0].

But two early efforts from Reading after the break pulled them right back into it and Wembley witnessed a to-and-fro classic as both teams attempted to land a killer blow.

It was down to Scott Sinclair to settle matters when the Swans striker scored his second penalty and third of the game late on to take the Welsh side through to the big time. His 80th minute spot kick will have come as a blow to backers of Under 5.5 goals at [1.01] on Betfair.

Swansea were backed at a high of [13.5] to be promoted, Reading traded at a low of [1.93].

We caught up with Reading Assistant Manager Nigel Gibbs ahead of the Championship Play-Off final, often described as the richest game in football. We asked him about practising penalties, Brendan Rogers and just why this match means so much....

Swansea go into the final as marginal favourites but there are good reasons to think that shouldn't necessarily be the case. Side with the outsiders in a low-scoring contest, says Andrew French....

They've gone down, there's in-fighting at the club's annual dinner and the club are £80m in debt but a long list of men are lined up for the manager role at Upton Park...

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League One Betting: Leyton to edge towards the last play-off spot

English Football League / Alan Dudman / 28 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Russell Slade has Leyton Orient playing a good brand of football at the moment

"Back to reality, marbles recovered, Orient have got the class to win this. Earlier in the month they played Southampton off the park but lost 2-0, but there's a good mentality about the club and Slade can be a fairly attack-minded coach."

Matches are running out for Leyton Orient to make one last push for a play-off spot but this weekend's home game is a good chance to put some pressure on Bournemouth. Alan Dudman talks us through the other good League One bets.

Brighton [2.50] v Huddersfield Town [2.88], the draw [3.70]

Brighton have already been crowned League One champions, and maybe a sense of 'job done' was the reason for their Easter period that yielded just one point. Monday's 1-1 draw at Colchester showed up some uncharacteristic defensive lapses, and the league's meanest defence looked as though they had switched off slightly.

However, it was Saturday's 2-1 home loss to Southampton that would have had Sunday news editors drooling. Albion boss Gus Poyet said: "when you look back in 10 years time at who won the title, it was Brighton who play football by passing the ball - not kicking it into the box." Ouch!

Huddersfield meanwhile are 23 league games unbeaten and picked up maximum points over the holiday weekend, with wins against MK Dons and Dagenham. Despite the 3-1 and 2-1 victories, Terriers boss Lee Clark was not satisfied, citing the need to kill teams off when having the chances.

The Yorkshire outfit like width, and will have to attack Brighton here knowing that any chance of automatic promotion rests with two straight wins from their their remaining games. Clark has got Jordan Rhodes scoring again, whilst right winger Jack Hunt is a supreme talent with a bag of tricks better than the 'Great Soprendo'.

With the onus on the visitors to get a result, they have to score, and the overs are more appealing than the outrights.

Best bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.98]
Back 2-2 @ [22.00]

Leyton Orient [1.74] v Tranmere Rovers [4.90], the draw [3.85]

Remember those FA Cup exploits of Orient? Well I might be asking the same question in future articles regarding their play-off exploits. The Londoners have got momentum at a crucial time and picked up six points over Easter with victories over Peterborough and Carlisle. They've now got a real chance of making the final play-off spot if Bournemouth
make a mistake.

I think they can do it, although [15.00] in the promotion should be a decent trade believing that their south coast rival might slip up. Orient manager Russell Slade has achieved what I have never been able to achieve - to look good in a cap. For some reason I don't dig them, and they don't dig me. Slade has also taken the Os to dizzying new heights.

Back to reality, marbles recovered, Orient have got the class to win this. Earlier in the month they played Southampton off the park but lost 2-0, but there's a good mentality about the club and Slade can be a fairly attack-minded coach. I would expect a 4-4-2 once again, with the scheming Dean Cox pulling the strings from out wide.

Tranmere are as unpredictable as the great C.B Fry, and the 4-0 win over Exeter on Monday could easily be followed up with with a 4-0 defeat - as was the case earlier in the month at Sheffield Wednesday.

Back Orient to win 2-0 [11.00] and 3-0 [18.00]
Back Orient HT/FT @ [2.40]

Brentford [4.90] v Southampton [1.76], the draw [3.75]

The magnificent run of 10 wins in 12 games has taken Southampton to the brink of automatic promotion, but with Huddersfield breathing down their necks (see above), nothing less than three points will do this weekend for the visit to Griffin Park.

Brentford have nothing to play for, and are in a nice situation and playing under no pressure. The Londoners however have several injuries, and might be ripe for a peppering this weekend - despite being a tidy outfit themselves.

But Southampton are rolling, and with their magnificent away support, could be ready to unleash an onslaught. Saturday's 2-1 win over Brighton was achieved with high-balls into the box, lots of pressing, and lots of pressure. That tempo could be too much for a team whose season is finished. The Saints can go aerial and win ugly, or pretty on the floor - either way, they should win this.

Back 0-1 [9.00]. 0-2 [13.00]

Four good bets ahead of another intriguing weekend of League Two football. Over to Ian Lamont......

Brighton have been crowned League One champions and it will be interesting to see how they approach their next match at home to Southampton. Elsewhere, Bournemouth should be too good for Yeovil, says Alan Dudman....

This is a huge weekend at both ends of the table in League Two. Ian Lamont sorts out the good bets from the bad....

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The Championship Betting: Victory essential for Hornets' play-off push

Championship / Andrew French / 21 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Dougie Freedman is hoping his Crystal Palace side can get at least a point at Doncaster

"The Eagles were making a half-decent fist of staying up with only one defeat in four before suffering a damaging home defeat to Scunthorpe a week ago."

With just a handful of games to go the Easter programme has a big say in deciding who goes up and who goes down, and Andrew French is hoping Watford can see of Barnsley and push for a play-off spot.

Friday April 22
Coventry v Scunthorpe
If ever a change of manager has saved a season, then it certainly has for Coventry. The Sky Blues were in freefall under Aidy Boothroyd, plummeting from 5th in mid-December to 19th by mid-March due to a run of one win in 17 games. However, caretaker Andy Thorn has steered City to four games without defeat, three of which they have won - and victory in this game would end any last lingering doubts about the drop. Coventry have won their last two at home, including last weekend's defeat of promotion-chasing Millwall. They also fare well at the Ricoh Arena against teams in the bottom half, winning seven out of 10. Despite a morale-boosting away win at Crystal Palace last weekend, Scunthorpe still have plenty to prove on the road. That success was preceded by a run of 11 successive away defeats for the Iron, and the fact they have conceded at least once in each of their last 10 trips suggests Coventry will find the net.
Back Coventry at [1.88]

Doncaster v Crystal Palace
This fixture is really a case of never mind the quality, just find a winning bet. In form terms, these two are about as off-colour as you can find; Doncaster haven't won at home in seven attempts, Palace are without an away win in 15. In fact, Rovers haven't done much winning anywhere recently, with just one success in their last 15 outings. They have lost four of their last five and are not safe from the drop. So as much as they will want to win this one, they can't afford to lose it either - particularly as defeat would see them drop to 21st as Palace would leapfrog them.

The Eagles were making a half-decent fist of staying up with only one defeat in four before suffering a damaging home defeat to Scunthorpe a week ago. But Dougie Freedman's side did manage a draw in their last away game at Leicester, and they would happily take a point - although with two of their last three at home they can probably afford to be a little more cavalier than their hosts.
Lay Doncaster at [2.36]

Saturday April 23
Watford v Barnsley
Mathematically Watford are still play-off contenders, but they will almost certainly need to win this game for that statement still to be true after 90 minutes. The Hornets, tipped by many as relegation fodder, have far exceeded all expectations though and while their form recently has been poor (no wins in five), back-to-back draws at home to Norwich and away to Leeds shows they are in good heart. They also score goals, particularly at home; they have netted at least once in each of their last 13 outings at Vicarage Road and have only fired blanks twice in front of their own fans all season. They should be able to continue that good record against Barnsley, as only three sides (all in the bottom six) have conceded more away goals than the Tykes. They also have a dismal record when travelling to sides above them in the table, losing 10 of the 15 matches and failing to keep a clean sheet in any of them.
Back Watford at [1.92]

Since the start of 2011 Andrew has had 34 winning bets from 51 selections, resulting in a profit of £188.17 (£10 stake/liability on each selection)

There's still lots to play for in the Championship and Andrew French believes Preston, Hull and Crystal Palace can go along way to achieving their aims by securing vital home wins this weekend....

Andrew French is in terrific form currently and he believes Preston, Leicester, and plenty of goals at Vicarage Road, are the key to keeping that run going....

Bristol City's recent good form could come to an end at Barnsley says Andrew French, Ipswich should beat Crystal Palace, and expect goals in the Lions' Den when Millwall host promotion-chasing Leeds....

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