In-running Week: Winter Derby yields promising signs

In-running / Neil Munro / 27 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Neil was a keen observer at Lingfield (above) this week

"Cai Shen's premium conditions seem to be when the ground is good to firm, although he has won on good ground."

Neil Munro has a spring in his step as he considers some pointers for the upcoming Flat season as well as one that might return to big fences soon...

I love this time of year. We have just had the thrill of Cheltenham, we have the excitement of the Grand National Aintree meeting coming up, and the flat season is sneaking up on us. The first sign of that was the Winter Derby at Lingfield where we saw one of my in-running list horses for the flat season.

Cai Shen

Cai Shen made his All-Weather debut in the Winter Derby and, despite having a very wide draw, ran really well to go down a close second. Richard Hannon's four-year-old colt is tactically versatile but, with no obvious pace, I thought Jamie Spencer would try to get near the front and dictate from a prominent position. I should have known better as he settled Cai Shen on the outside near the back of the pack. But the colt travelled supremely well, as he always does, despite not taking the final bend very well, and traded at deep odds-on. Overall, he has traded at half his BSP in ten of his 12 races, with four victories. I don't have any issues with him and he will pick up a decent race or two this season. His premium conditions seem to be when the ground is good to firm, although he has won on good ground.

Advice: Back Cai Shen pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake at half BSP in the run. Put up a further offer to lay at deep odds-on.

Noble Storm

This column studies all forms of racing but my heart will always be with sprinters. For me, nothing is more fulfilling than analysing a sprint handicap. So I was so looking forward to seeing Noble Storm run in the Listed sprint at Lingfield having been off the track for eight months. He loves to try and travel on the pace and Graham Gibbons managed to get him there, but after so long off, he never really settled and was never going to see out the race. He traded shorter but not to half his BSP. Overall, he's hit his mark 24 times in 28 runs so he will throughout the season.

Advice: With a 29% win ratio, I'm happy to back Noble Storm pre-race at BSP and then lay out my stake at half BSP in the run.

Petit Robin

Another to come back from a long lay-off, Petit Robin ran well enough in defeat over hurdles at his favourite track of Newbury. It will be interesting to see if connections head back over the bigger fences as he had quite a serious shoulder injury. But wherever connections go I would be using a back-to-lay strategy for this natural front-runner.

Advice: Back Petit Robin at BSP prior to the race and lay out your stake at half BSP in the run with an additional offer to lay our more at odds-on.

After four days of ups and downs at the Cheltenham Fesitval, Neil Munro reflects on what in-running bettors learned at Prestbury Park......

Neil Munro provides an entertaining account of a race that was run exactly as he thought it would be. He also two profiles a pair of horses for you to add to the in-running portfolio......

Neil Munro identifies seven horses that it could pay to bet on in-play at this year's Cheltenham Festival......

Amazon Sports Center

Handicappers' Corner: Baker proves the difference in Winter Derby

Handicappers' Corner / Timeform / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Premio Loco ran to a figure of 119 in the Winter Derby

"A figure of 119 is the highest awarded to the Winter Derby winner since the race was introduced in 1998..."

Though the culmination of the all-weather season, it's difficult to see Winter Derby day at Lingfield as anything other than the beginning on the new Flat season given the quality of horses and the promising performances on show. David Johnson takes a look at them from the Timeform ratings perspective...

Winter Flat racing fans were denied the opportunity to see much of George Baker throughout the season after a fall at Wolverhampton in October saw him suffer a broken arm which kept him off the track for over three months, but since his return, he's been regularly reminding them of what they have missed, and there was no greater example of his talents than his ride on Premio Loco in the Winter Derby.

If ever there was an example of a race won and lost in the early part of the race, then this was it. Both Baker and Jamie Spencer, on runner-up Cai Shen, had wide draws to overcome, and with just half a length between them at the line, Baker's decision to be aggressive and take his horse forward into a prominent position was surely crucial, saving ground as well as getting first run in a race that the sectional times confirm was run to suit those ridden prominently.

Premio Loco was rated 122 at his peak in 2010, and it reflects well on his trainer Chris Wall that he is just about as good as ever as an 8-y-o, running to a figure of 119 on Saturday and defying a Group 2 penalty for his success in last year's Park Stakes.

A figure of 119 is the highest awarded to the Winter Derby winner since the race was introduced in 1998 and is marginally higher than what the five-year race standards would suggest.

The runner-up Cai Shen deserves plenty of credit too and is in for a good season, the fact he matched his pre-race rating of 114 suggesting he can build on it when things go more his way. A head behind him was Circumvent who returned to pick of his 3-y-o form in running to 113.

A couple of listed races supported the card and it was Gusto that took the Spring Cup for Richard Hannon. Hannon has brought back Dubawi Gold and Paco Boy in this race in recent times, so it would be surprising if this proves to be the highlight of Gusto's career.

Gusto improved to a figure of 111, the highest awarded to the winner since the race was introduced, but he remains rated behind the third, Bannock (113) whose performance figure of 104+ would surely have been bettered had he not had to race so wide from stall 10. The runner-up Kenny Powers was fit from Dubai and showed much-improved form to earn a rating of 106, finishing strongly from further back than ideal.

The form of the Hever Sprint Stakes looks all the more shaky. There's no doubt Fratellino improved on anything he'd done previously, and he's now rated 111, up 9 lb from 102. But having had the ideal run through, it would be a surprise if he could confirm the form against some of his higher-rated rivals who weren't seen to best effect, notably the fast-finishing second Spirit Quartz (up to 112, bare performance figure of 109+) and the hampered Medicean Man (remains on 115).

The 1m maiden saw Forgotten Hero run out an impressive winner, and he could have a classic trial on his agenda. Sent off odds-on to beat Horris Hill-third Hazaz, he comfortably came home 6 lengths clear of that rival, and though running only to a bare figure of 92+, is now rated 102p.

Over in the States, former Ed McMahon inmate Went The Day Well put himself in line for a crack at the Kentucky Derby with his success in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park.

Representing the same connections as Animal Kingdom, who won the same contest twelve months ago and followed up in the Run For The Roses, Went The Day Well earned a rating of 117, still 7lb behind current favourite, Union Rags.

Race Passes subscribers already enjoy access to our ratings, form & in-play data. And now there's more - we've added a list of Horses In Focus, last 3 runs on the meeting summary & coverage of big races abroad. And all for the same price!

Exciting though it was, The Breeders' Cup promised more than it delivered and needs to look to its laurels. Simon Rowlands considers the event from a rating point of view, in a week which also featured the Melbourne Cup and some good jumps action......

Form rather than hype, substance over style, achievement more than potential. That has long been the Timeform mantra, but this weekend's best Flat action provided an exception. Timeform Flat handicapper David Johnson explains....

It's had its knockers but, with Ascot bathed in autumn sunshine and high-quality fields for all five pattern races, few can argue that British Champions Day was anything but a resounding success. David Johnson reflects on the results from a ratings perspective......

Future Champions Day was the highlight of the racing in Europe this weekend, but, with neither the Middle Park nor Dewhurst producing a commanding winner, it's most unlikely that Timeform's Champion two-year-old was in action. We may, however, still have seen a top-class colt, as David Johnson reveals....

Amazon Sports Center

Timeform Daily: Winter Derby, Saturday, Lingfield 15:25

Race of the Day / Timeform / 23 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Chris Wall's Premio Loco

"Proven Group race performer Premio Loco was narrowly touched off in this race in 2009 and looks sure to give supporters another good run..."

Timeform take a look at the feature race on Saturday, Lingfield's Group 3 Winter Derby run over a mile and a quarter...

Premio Loco was touched off in this contest in 2009. Largely creditable efforts either side of his Group 2 win at Doncaster in September and no reason to think he won't be thereabouts once more.

Black Spirit's last win came in 1m Sandown handicap in summer 2010. Largely held his own in better company since, rounding off with a fourth in Group 3 at Newbury in September and gelded in the interim.

Cai Shen's progress continued in 2011, registering second win of the year when making all in a 1¼m minor event at Doncaster in September. Well worth a try in this grade, but wide draw not ideal.

Circumvent's sole win in 2011 when landing a 9f Goodwood handicap in September, but good second in a listed contest over this C&D in November and no forlorn hope if on top of his game after a break.

Emerald Wilderness has been rejuvenated this winter, winning 3 handicaps over this C&D. Failed to sparkle both tries on a recent jaunt to Dubai, though, and this looks tough on return.

Junoob has been successful twice at up to 1½m at this venue since being claimed from Amy Weaver in December, having something in hand when capturing a listed race last time and not out of this by any means.

Loyalty won 6 times on polytrack in 2011. Good effort from a poor position when third to Junoob in C&D listed race in February, but unable to repeat it last time and this tougher still.

Lyssio Useful form when twice placed in listed races for Peter Schiergen. Matched those efforts when second at Meydan for new yard in January, but below par at that venue since and tried in a hood now.

Our Joe Mac has been resurgent since cheekpieces fitted, winning 1¼m York handicap in August. Not disgraced on return from a spell hurdling when mid-field behind Junoob over C&D last month and visor applied now.

Riggins made most of a drop in the weights over 1m here in November. Ran to a similar level when attempting repeat win in a listed race at Kempton next time, but yet to prove he stays this far.

Suits Me - NR

Myplacelater thrived in 2010, winning 5 times up to 1½m. Better than form figures suggest when mixing it in good company last year and one to consider on first run for Richard Fahey.

Sooraah progressed into a genuine listed performer in 2011 and fine effort when landing a 1m Meydan handicap in February. Below par in Group 3 last time, though, and stamina to prove on first try at 1¼m.

Vivacious Vivienne showed further progress when twice making frame in listed races last term. Promising return when third over an inadequate 1m on polytrack this month and place prospects back at this trip.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Premio Loco
2. Myplacelater
3. Cai Shen

Timeform View: Proven Group race performer Premio Loco was narrowly touched off in this race in 2009 and looks sure to give supporters another good run for their money after proving himself as good as ever last term. Myplacelater was better than her form figures suggest last year and also makes the shortlist on her first run for Richard Fahey, alongside Cai Shen and Circumvent.

..............
Racehorses of 2011 is out now and contains essays on the top performers, over 300 photos, Timeform Top 100s and much more. Click HERE to secure your copy.

Timeform run the rule over the Betfair. Don´t Settle For Less Handicap Hurdle at Newbury on Friday......

Timeform bring you a runner-by-runner guide to a fascinating novice chase over two miles and two furlongs at Fontwell on Thursday......

Timeform offer you a runner-by-runner guide to the 14:40 at Haydock this afternoon, a handicap hurdle over two and a half miles......

Amazon Sports Center

Timeform Daily: Winter Derby, Saturday, Lingfield 15:10

Race of the Day / Timeform / 25 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Lingfield Races

"Nice Style has come back better than ever this winter and is selected to take the step up in class in his stride."

Timeform give their views on the Winter Derby...

Big Creek was a useful performer in Italy, though he ended last year out of form and has not fired in Dubai so far this year. He looks up against it in this company unless first-time cheekpieces spark improvement.

Cockney Class got back on the up last autumn, finishing third in a Musselburgh handicap off 88 and sixth of 13 in a nine-furlong Newmarket Group 3 on his final start. More will be needed if he's to make a winning AW bow in this company, though.

Dansili Dancer was an impressive winner of the eleven-furlong Rosebery Handicap last spring and rounded off 2010 with a good win at Kempton. He is clearly well suited by this surface and has run well here in the past. He is a leading contender.

Franco Is My Name was progressive on the AW in 2010, winning five times at up to eleven furlongs. He looks up against it in this company, though, and his attitude has taken a turn for the worse of late.

Hidden Glory won twice over a mile on the AW for Pat Eddery, and returned to his best for this yard when beating Scamperdale over C&D in January. He has been well held since, though, and is flying too high this time.

Layline goes well at Lingfield, beating Scamperdale in a C&D handicap before a creditable third to Suits Me in a minor event. He put up another fair effort last time but more improvement is needed upped in class.

Mister Green is a hold-up performer who usually travels strongly. He excelled himself in this race 12 months ago but has been beaten off handicap marks in the low 70s on his last three starts and is impossible to recommend.

Nice Style won four on the bounce at up to eleven furlongs in Ireland in 2008 for Ger Lyons, and has done well for his new yard this winter, defying a mark of 94 in a C&D handicap in January. He has good claims despite the step up in class.

Nideeb has improved since being switched to the AW, winning twice, including a C&D listed event in November. He was a good second at Kempton when last seen and can't be ignored given his polytrack record.

Shamir won a maiden over seven furlongs here in 2010, and went on to land a brace of mile handicaps at Kempton. His form looks to be some way short of what will be required to triumph in this grade, though.

Suits Me is a smart and reliable front runner who had plenty in favour when winning a minor event over C&D last month. He had excuses when unable to dominate last time and should be seen to better effect here.

Pachattack was better than ever last year, making all to win listed races at Newcastle and Newbury, and she added to that tally in the valuable Maple Leaf Stakes at Woodbine in November. She is likely to be in the mix again.

Silver Grey is often highly tried and is possibly flattered by some of her efforts, but there is nothing wrong with her third in a listed race at Yarmouth (1¼m) in September. She was well held on last month's reappearance, though.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Nice Style
2. Nideeb
3. Dansili Dancer

Timeform View: Nice Style has come back better than ever this winter and is selected to take the step up in class in his stride. Nideeb and Dansili Dancer head the list of dangers.

Today's Race of the Day comes from Newbury......

Plenty of in-form runners oppose in this seven-furlong handicap......

Timeform take you through the field for this handicap hurdle......

Betfair website