Golf Form Guide: Favourites to enjoy a good week

Golf Form Guide / Mike Norman / 27 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Italian starlet Matteo Manassero

"Of the European Tour professionals on show Matteo Manassero is easily the class act in the field, and after finishing second and sixth in the last two weeks he is the form player too

Whilst most people are turning their attention to next week's Masters there's still a relatively big prize to be won in Texas this week, whilst in Europe, a young Italian is hoping to win in his homeland says Mike Norman.

Although I didn't select the winner personally, the Form Guide fared pretty well at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Tiger Woods, fourth on our list prior to last week, was an emphatic winner and I'm sure a popular selection amongst many of you. Add to that, Kevin Na - a big price recommendation - and Ernie Els both recorded top-five finishes, so all in all it wasn't a bad week.

On the subject of Woods it was great to see him almost back to his best. Two years ago I said he will never be the same player again; obviously referring to the pre-scandal Tiger Woods. Whilst there's a distinct possibility I could now be wrong in that regard I feel I was more than justified with my comments.

It was plainly obvious that Woods had other issues on his mind than just golf during 2010 and for the most part of last year, and I made some decent money laying him on a regular basis. Based on this year's performances however, Woods - barring Rory McIlroy perhaps - looks the man everyone has to beat again.

The former world number one, Tiger that is, can be backed at just [5.3] to win next week's US Masters, whilst McIlroy is available to back at [6.8].

PGA Tour - Shell Houston Open

(Tournaments used: Arnold Palmer Invitational, Transitions Championship, WGC Cadillac Championship, Puerto Rico Open, Honda Classic, Mayakoba Classic, Northern Trust Open, AT&T Pebble Beach)

Phil Mickelson (2)... 26.5 (W 2011)
Charl Schwartzel (2)... 18 (T5 2010)
Lee Westwood (2)... 17.5 (T10 2010)
Graeme McDowell (2)... 13.5
Keegan Bradley (2)... 11.5
Henrik Stenson (1)... 11.5 (T5 2009)

*number in brackets after a player's name is the number of top-10 finishes achieved in last six weeks/tournaments on tour
**information after a players' points relates to wins (W), top-five (T5) and top-10 (T10) finishes in corresponding tournament in previous three years

I have mixed feelings about this week's Shell Houston Open. Given that it's incredibly difficult for a golfer to win back-to-back tournaments I always wonder why anyone teeing it up at next week's Masters would want to win in Texas this week. I remember Steve Rawlings - aka The Punter and a big Phil Mickelson fan - being gutted that Lefty won here last year without the great man (Steve that is) having a penny on.

I know Lee Westwood's putting will need to improve massively if he is to win at Augusta in 10 days time, but as I've already backed him for the Masters I'm not overly keen on him winning this week. But as the betting indicates, Westy has every chance of triumphing here. He has been in decent form of late - as he always is - and finished eighth (2010) and 11th (2009) at this venue in recent years.

Mickelson heads this week's Form Guide but that's thanks largely to his form from six weeks ago as well as winning this event in 2011. He's gone off the boil recently and I'd much rather back Charl Schwartzel and Keegan Bradley, both of whom are far more consistent and arguably better players these days.

Recommended Bets: Lee Westwood @ [13.0], Charl Schwartzel @ [25.0], Keegan Bradley @ [20.0]

European Tour - Sicilian Open

(Tournaments used: Trophee Hassan II, Open de Andalucia, WGC Cadillac Championship, Avantha Masters, Dubai Desert Classic)

Matteo Manassero (2)... 13
Jose-Manuel Lara... 10 (T5 2011*)
Raphael Jacquelin... 9.5 (W 2011*)

*2011 Sicilian Open was played at a different venue to the one being used this week

I hate putting up favourites, especially in single figures, as my main selection but there's absolutely no getting away from young Matteo Manassero this week. Of the European Tour professionals on show he is easily the class act in the field, and after finishing second and sixth in the last two weeks he is the form player too. Adding further confidence is the fact that he is playing in his homeland at a venue that is pretty much virgin to everyone.

Recommended Bet: Matteo Manassero @ [8.6], Jose-Manuel Lara @ [60.0]

With just two weeks to the Masters Luke Donald's game looks in great shape says Mike Norman, but who looks in fine form ahead of this week's two main tournaments? Read on to find out......

Mike Norman assesses the form either side of the pond and selects a couple of golfers at the peak of their powers who have also played well in their respective tournaments previously....

Mike Norman takes an early look at this week's World Golf Championship event as well as discussing why Rory McIlroy's putting has helped him become the number one golfer in the world....

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Champions League Betting: Seeded favourites in real danger

Champions League / Matthew Walton / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mario Gomez and Bayern Munich have plenty to think about ahead of their second leg against Basel

"But even those backers who expect the ‘European powerhouses’ of Bayern and Inter Milan, just a goal down at the mid-point of the ties, to bounce back and beat Basel and Marseille, should note the facts."

Bayern Munich, Inter Milan, Chelsea and Arsenal were amongst the teams coming out on top at the group stages who have it all to do going into the second legs of the last 16 stages. What clues do the stats give us about how to bet, asks Matthew Walton.

Popular wisdom says teams who win their opening Champions League group are virtually guaranteed a place in the quarter-finals.

After all... winning their initial section ensures an easier R16 tie, against a weaker team, who finished second in their group. There's also the added bonus of travelling away for the first leg and so playing the all important second leg at home.

Makes sense.

How come, therefore, since the current Champions League format was implemented in 2003/04, are we still to see a single season where all eight of these group winning, or seeded, teams have collectively qualified for the last eight.

Last year was a good year... seven of the eight group winners making it through, but previous seasons have been something of a mixed bag (4, 5, 6, 7, 5 and 6) in terms of success.

That's a fairly significant 29% failure rate for these teams - supposedly 'nailed-on' to qualify. And, once again, this season we're not destined to see a clean sweep by the group winners.

Quite remarkably, six table-topping sides (the highest figure since 2003/04) have lost the first leg of their home-away ties... hardly the best way to go about qualification.

Only Barcelona (3-1 winners at Bayer Leverkusen) and Real Madrid (1-1 at CSKA Moscow) escaped a first leg defeat.

Good news for the Spanish duo... not so good for the other half dozen.

Reason being, on the stats, losing the first leg, no matter that its against a so-called weaker team, severely damages a club's chances of progression in the competition.

In fact, the last eight seasons have seen seeded teams lose the first leg on no fewer than 22 occasions... resulting in 14 of them subsequently going out. That's a 64% failure rate.

This figure suggests that three, maybe four, of the six first leg losers are destined to exit the tournament.

And they are... Apoel (0-1 to Lyon), Benfica (2-3 Zenit), Arsenal (0-4 Milan), Chelsea (1-3 Napoli), Inter (0-1 Marseille) and Bayern (0-1 Basel).

Admittedly, each one of these has home advantage for the second leg matches. But that may not prove enough to save some of them.

Prime candidates are the English pair of Chelsea and Arsenal.

Chelsea's first leg conquerors, Napoli, are as short as [1.4] to qualify, whilst the side who demolished Arsenal, Milan, are arguably a big price under the circumstances... at [1.03] http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=104541859&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013.

Both Premier League teams face a huge challenge after comprehensive away defeats.

But even those backers who expect the 'European powerhouses' of Bayern and Inter Milan, just a goal down at the mid-point of the ties, to bounce back and beat Basel and Marseille, should note the facts.

Of the aforementioned 22 teams (away losers in the first leg), their record in the return home fixture only reads W12 D4 L6.

These sides still only win just over half these matches. Matches that they must win to stand any chance of moving forward in the competition.

That would probably explain why Inter trade at a rather big-looking [3.0] to overcome their French opponents, Marseille. That... and some very dodgy form in Serie A.

So whether Bayern, equally troubled at home, are value at [1.51] to see off their Swiss rivals is open to debate.

Given the facts, Basel are actually the call... if you're a real value merchant. Or, if you don't fancy taking on the mighty Munich then consider Zenit St. Petersburg (also winners in the first leg but and odds-against to qualify) who face Benfica. The Russians trade at [2.28] to progress.

And looking beyond the R16, on the basis of these current ties, we could see a very open set of Quarter-Finals. Make no mistake, a couple of 'minnows' look likely to make the last eight.

The draw, as ever, will be crucial but a couple of outright prices, notably for two of the Italian sides, might prove good trading material further down the line... Milan [13.5] and especially Napoli [27.0] being the teams in question.

Should they go through, and the QF/SF pairings go favourably, their odds could shorten appreciably well ahead of the next round... and that could prove another potential source of profit!

Key Statistic

No seeded team which lost the first match, the away leg, in the R16 by two goals or more has ever managed to turn it around in the second leg. Every one has been eliminated. Arsenal and Chelsea both fall into this category this season.

Recommended Bets

Zenit St. Petersburg to qualify [2.28]

Napoli (back to lay) in outright winner market.

James Eastham expects plenty of entertainment in the Portuguese capital on Tuesday night....

Michael Lintorn has examined the Opta stats and picked out four bets for Tuesday's Champions League games, in which he sees neither home side triumphing......

APOEL are going to need to snap out of their Champions League goal drought fairly sharpish if they are to avoid elimination on Wednesday......

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Mali v Ivory Coast: Favourites ready to cruise through to final

African Cup Of Nations / James Eastham / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Didier Drogba and team-mates celebrate a goal in their 3-0 quarter-final win

"Do Mali have the firepower to breach the Ivory Coast defence and make a game of this semi-final? My feeling is yes, even though Mali have managed just four goals in four games. They have more attacking talent than that goals tally suggests – and, as they're rank outsiders, all the pressure is on Ivory Coast."

James Eastham expects Ivory Coast to win but says their magnificent defensive record is about to end.

Mali v Ivory Coast, 19:00 GMT, British Eurosport, Match Odds: Mali 9.2, Ivory Coast 1.51, The Draw 4.3.

Ivory Coast were pre-season favourites to lift the trophy and have retained top position in the outright betting all the way through the tournament.

After recording three wins out of three in the group phase the Ivorians beat Equatorial Guinea 3-0 to take their place in the last four.

Despite the wonderful attacking talent in their squad Ivory Coast's progress has been built on a defence that has yet to concede a goal. Progress has been functional rather than flamboyant, but it's working for a nation determined to end their trophy drought.

"When we played the Nations Cup in 2010, 2006 and other years, we played great football and we didn't win anything," St Etienne attacker Max Gradel told the BBC. "But today the most important thing - as the coach tells us every day - is winning and it doesn't matter how you win.

"Everything our coach is telling us to do, we're doing it. On the pitch and off the pitch he's the boss."

Do Mali have the firepower to breach the Ivory Coast defence and make a game of this semi-final? My feeling is yes, even though Mali have managed just four goals in four games. They have more attacking talent than that goals tally suggests - and, as they're rank outsiders, all the pressure is on Ivory Coast.

That's why I would avoid the Ivory Coast to win to nil market at [1.91] or Ivory Coast to keep a clean sheet at [1.81]. Mali will throw everything at the favourites, and have better attacking players than Equatorial Guinea, who failed to find the net in the quarter-finals.

My main selection on the game would be Over 2.5 Goals at [2.28]. This is because Ivory Coast scored three times in the last eight and I give Mali a good chance of scoring, but also because of the stats from this tournament and semi-finals down the years. Fourteen of 28 (50%) matches in the competition so far have featured over 2.5 goals, and six of the last 12 Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals have had three goals or more. The odds-against price is therefore worth taking.

My second bet would be to oppose Ivory Coast keeping a clean sheet. The market offers a good price on the favourites conceding because of their excellent defensive record to date. You can back 'No' in the Ivory Coast Clean Sheet? market at [2.18].

Finally, there is historic evidence that one the semi-finals will result in a comfortable victory. Five of the last 12 Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals have seen a side triumph by three goals or more (two 3-0 scorelines, two 4-0s and a 4-1). Therefore you ought to consider backing Ivory Coast -1.5 Asian handicap at around [2.25] if you expect Didier Drogba and co. to get through.

Best Bet: Mali v Ivory Coast Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.28].
Other Recommended Bet: Ivory Coast not to Keep a Clean Sheet @ [2.18].

P&L: £10 staked on all James Eastham's tips during the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America would have netted you a profit of £223.70 (33.4% ROI)

James Eastham expects this semi-final to go with the market even though Ghana have disappointed so far....

Feeling like Jack Nicholson in an Antonioni film, making do with basic levels of French in Gabon and predicting the demise of Mali at the hands of tournament favourites the Ivory Coast. It's Jonathan Wilson's diary....

Jonathan Wilson discusses a weekend of quarter-final matches and explains why he is especially look forward to Sunday......

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Ivory Coast v Burkina Faso: Favourites to grab a second win

African Cup Of Nations / James Eastham / 25 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Dider Drogba scored the winner in Ivory Coast's opening game

Burkina Faso's opening performance and Ivory Coast’s immense attacking potential (their squad contains Gervinho, Max Gradel, Seydou Doumbia, Salomon Kalou and Yaya Toure) makes over 2.5 goals a worthwhile option.

James Eastham believes Ivory Coast's second group game will be a high-scoring encounter.

Ivory Coast v Burkina Faso, 19:00 GMT, Match Odds: Ivory Coast [1.49], Burkina Faso [9.2], The Draw [4.4].

Ivory Coast failed to live up to expectations in managing only a 1-0 victory over Sudan last Sunday, but how often do tournament favourites earn spectacular opening-day wins? If tournaments are all about peaking at the right time, there was enough in The Elephants' performance to suggest there's plenty more to come from them.

Ivory Coast will be confident going into the game thanks to those 3pts already in the bag (you can read a report of their win here). In contrast, Burkina Faso are under pressure having lost 2-1 to Angola in their opening game. The highlight of their match was Alain Traore's 25-yard free-kick, but some of their defending was below-par, suggesting Ivory Coast will get plenty of scoring opportunities if they pick their moments carefully.

Burkina's performance and Ivory Coast's immense attacking potential (Drogba scored the winning goal over Sudan and their squad also contains Gervinho, Max Gradel, Seydou Doumbia, Salomon Kalou and Yaya Toure) makes over 2.5 goals a worthwhile option. At some point in the match, Burkina Faso will have to attack as Ivory Coast and Angola already have a win each and they must close the gap. Therefore I expect good scoring opportunities at both ends - and while Ivory Coast's attacking options are superior, Traore and Rennes winger Jonathan Pitroipa both have the ability to unlock the favourites' defence.

Over 2.5 Goals at [2.32] is my main pick on the game, and I wouldn't talk anybody out of backing Ivory Coast to collect 3pts in order to guarantee their safe passage to the knockout phase. The tournament favourites are [1.49] to win the match, so Ivory Coast -1.0 Asian handicap at [1.83] is an alternative.

An alternative to the Over 2.5 Goals bet is to back both teams to score at [2.22]. With this bet, you're covering the 1-1 draw.

Best Bet: Ivory Coast v Burkina Faso Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.32].
Other Recommended Bet: Ivory Coast -1.0 Asian Handicap @ [1.83].

* James Eastham's tips for betting.betfair.com made a profit at both the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America

James Eastham believes Angola will make it two wins out of two when they face Sudan in Group B....

Zambia's determination to do well in Gabon is undimmed by their shock win over Senegal, says Tobias Gourlay...

Equatorial Guinea somehow won their first match but we didn't find out too much about how good they are. Senegal on the other hand lost their opening match but there were signs they're about to improve. A win here can...

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Ivory Coast v Sudan: Tournament favourites to make winning start

African Cup Of Nations / James Eastham / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ivory Coast has some outstanding attacking talent in their squad

"Of course, all tournaments throw up upsets, but there’s no point opposing Ivory Coast because there’s no evidence that Sudan are good enough to earn a win or draw. The problem, as always with short-priced favourites, is how to make them pay."

James Eastham believes Ivory Coast will avoid any slip-ups against rank outsiders Sudan on Sunday afternoon.

Ivory Coast v Sudan, KO 16:00 GMT, Eurosport, Match Odds: Ivory Coast 1.23, Sudan 19.5, The Draw 6.6.

Even the most casual observer of African football would describe this as a mismatch. A look at the markets tells you how far apart Ivory Coast and Sudan are.

Francois Zahoui's Ivory Coast are [1.28] to win Group B, and as short as [2.74] to win the tournament. Sudan are [17.0] outsiders to win the pool, and last in the outright betting at [300.0].

They may hail from the same continent but a glance through the two squads tells you these nations inhabit different footballing worlds. Didier Drogba, Yaya Toure and Cheick Tiote are among the most high-profile members of Ivory Coast's party; in contrast, Sudan's 23-man group was drawn entirely from their domestic league, with all but four players coming from Al Hilal and Al Merreikh.

Of course, all tournaments throw up upsets, but there's no point opposing Ivory Coast because there's no evidence that Sudan are good enough to earn a win or draw. The problem, as always with short-priced favourites, is how to make them pay. The [1.23] on Ivory Coast winning in 90 minutes will be too skinny for most bettors, so I've scoured the markets for more appealing alternatives.

My favourite three selections are Ivory Coast to be leading at HT and FT ([1.71]), Ivory Coast with a -1.5&-2.0 start on the Asian handicap ([1.96]) and Ivory Coast to win to nil ([1.67]). Thirteen of 23 wins (57%) have been to nil in the first round of matches at Africa Cup of Nations tournaments dating back to 2004, but I'd make the chances of Ivory Coast winning while keeping a clean sheet here bigger because Sudan are weak opposition.

Backing Ivory Coast (whose chances of victory are analysed by Michael Lintorn here) on the Asian handicap is also a good call, as you'll make money as long as Ivory Coast win by two goals or more. Considering the attacking riches in their squad - Drogba, Seydou Doumbia, Salomon Kalou, Gervinho, Max Gradel and others - they are capable of running up a three- or four-goal winning scoreline.

Best Bet: Ivory Coast to win to nil @ [1.67]
Other Recommended Bet: Ivory Coast -1.5&-2.0 Asian handicap @ [1.96]

* James Eastham's tips for betting.betfair.com made a profit at both the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America

James Eastham expects tournament dark horses Burkina Faso to make a winning start against Angola on Sunday....

Jonathan Wilson returns with his first African Cup of Nations diary of 2012 as he weighs up the chances of two of the tournament minnows......

Tobias Gourlay expects his pre-tournament picks, the Lions of Senegal, to start as he hopes they will go on against Zambia this weekend...

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League One Betting: Owls to upset title favourites?

English Football League / Alan Dudman / 01 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Former Bury forward Ryan Lowe has just joined Sheffield Wednesday

"The Owls have finally got their goal-getter in Ryan Lowe, and he should link up well with the big forward Gary Madine, whose hold-up play is good, and is magnificent in the air."

League One takes centre stage during the international break, and Alan Dudman believes Sheffield Wednesday can upset title favourites Charlton in front of the Sky cameras on Monday evening.

Charlton [1.98] v Sheffield Wednesday [3.4]; The Draw [3.5]

(Monday 5th September, Live on Sky Sports One, 19:45)

An intriguing match in front of the cameras, with a case to be made for both. Charlton are now a force to be reckoned with in the division, and trade as title favourites at [5.0], having picked up 13 points from an excellent start to their season. They remain unbeaten.

Sheffield Wednesday have won all three of their home games this term, but haven't been as good on their travels (losing both). However, manager Gary Megson has got them trying to pass the ball, and he's also landed the much needed striker in the transfer window.

Charlton sealed a 2-1 win at Bury on Saturday, but found themselves soaking up lots of pressure from the hosts. The Shakers can be quite a physical side, and the Addicks found themselves sitting far too deep, forcing themselves to go long. Bury's forward Ryan Lowe caused the Londoners lots of problems last weekend, and he's just signed for Sheffield Wednesday.

The Owls have finally got their goal-getter in Lowe, and he should link up well with the big forward Gary Madine, whose hold-up play is good, and is magnificent in the air. Lowe will be the craftier of the two, in a potentially decent strike force.

Wednesday are showing good signs, and Saturday's 3-2 win against Scunthorpe showed some improvement, in particular the ball out from wide. It might be enough to tempt in small wager on the away side, with a cover on the Over 2.5 Goals - as both are capable of scoring.

Back Sheffield Wednesday to beat Charlton @ [3.4]
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.04]
Back Johnnie Jackson First Goalscorer @ [13.0] or bigger

Scunthorpe [2.34] v Colchester [3.2]; The Draw [3.6]

Scunthorpe have not enjoyed the best start to life in League One, although one or two of those games were harsh on the Iron. They have been unlucky yes, but manager Alan Knill is fed up of the 'unlucky' moniker.

Knill's problem has been his side's inability to keep possession, whilst the defence has been making far too many individual errors. On the plus side, Scunthorpe have got goals in them, and they do look dangerous in the opponents half - having showed that in the 3-2 defeat to Sheffield Wednesday.

Those two factors lead me to believe goals will be scored in this game. The fact they are playing Colchester seals the deal.

The Essex outfit have scored 15 goals in the seven league and cup games they've played this season, and have hit the Over 2.5 Goals make-up five times already. Colchester are hugely entertaining, and like to attack especially on their travels. There is no chance manager John Ward will go for a 0-0, as his team are brimming with confidence having blasted away Oldham last weekend.

Colchester's Anthony Wordsworth is playing the best football of his career, whilst Ian Henderson has already bagged four. Hopefully some more entertainment is in store.

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.85]
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ [3.2]
Back 2-2 @ [10.0] & 2-3 @ [22.0]

Notts County [2.18] v Bournemouth [3.8], The Draw [3.4]

Bournemouth look a side struggling at the moment, and Saturday's 2-0 home defeat to Walsall is miles away from last term's exciting play under Eddie Howe. The Cherries can't seem to break teams down at the moment, not surprising considering their best strikers have all been sold.

Manager Lee Bradbury has got his team plugging away, but they lack any kind of goal threat, and worryingly trade at [3.5] in the relegation market.

Notts County look a far more rugged and resilient outfit. Saturday's 2-0 defeat at Preston was harsh, considering both goals were late (and one from the goalkeeper). The Magpies defended really well at Deepdale, and kept out a dangerous side for long periods.

Back Notts County to beat Bournemouth @ [2.18]
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [2.0]
Back 1-0 Correct Score @ [9.2]
Back Notts County Clean Sheet @ [3.1]

Ian Lamont explains why he's sticking with Morecambe - for now - as he looks ahead to the weekend's League Two action......

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

After demolishing Premier League outfit Norwich in midweek Alan Dudman believes MK Dons will put in another good display this weekend under the excellent leadership of Karl Robinson....

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Copa America Betting: Why Uruguay are worthy favourites

Copa America / Michael Lintorn / 21 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Oscar Tabarez's continues to prove a positive influence on his Uruguay side

"Paraguay have shown twice in Argentina and once at the World Cup that they have the nerves of steel required when it comes to shootouts, converting 12 of their 13 penalties."

It has been a tournament littered with shocks, yet with two teams left, Uruguay are firm favourites to take the trophy. Michael Lintorn looks at whether that status is justified...

Without actually performing that well, Paraguay have reached the Copa America Final undefeated. But despite proving extremely difficult to beat, with Brazil twice failing to find a way past them, they are [3.0] outsiders to be crowned champions.

The reason for that is the huge amount of faith that punters have in Uruguay, the best performing South American nation at last summer's World Cup, who are [1.49] favourites to be the last ones standing once again, and have been responsible for 79 per cent of the money traded in the market.

Uruguay tick all the boxes when it comes to potential winners. They have the superior historical record in the competition having claimed 14 titles to Paraguay's two, the last of which was earned 32 years ago.

In addition, they have been the more impressive of the two in the latest edition, albeit having only won two of their five games in normal time, which is why they are above-evens at [2.08] to triumph in 90 minutes. All five of Paraguay's matches have finished level.

That is the main concern when it comes to backing Oscar Tabarez's side to get their hands on the trophy, especially as Paraguay have shown twice in Argentina and once at the World Cup that they have the nerves of steel required when it comes to shootouts, converting 12 of their 13 penalties.

However, while Gerardo Martino's men are yet to lose, they have faced just one other country ranked among South America's seven finest by FIFA, an out-of-form Brazil. By contrast, they have ended three of their last four meetings with Uruguay empty-handed.

Diego Forlan did the damage in their last clash but Luis Suarez will be desperate to be the difference-maker this time as he bids to pull clear of eliminated joint-top goalscorer Sergio Aguero. The Liverpool forward is the [1.25] frontrunner in that market.

A post-match scrap overshadowed the action on the pitch as Paraguay earned a place in Sunday's final against Uruguay by defeating Venezuela on penalties....

Having gone one step further than they did at last summer's World Cup, Uruguay have one hand on the Copa America trophy, with Luis Suarez the favourite to be top goal-getter....

These two have reached the semi-finals against the odds - and the upsets look set to continue when they meet in the semi-final on Wednesday night, writes James Eastham....

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Bundesliga Betting: Evolving Bayern are favourites yet again

German Football / Michael Lintorn / 14 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Germany defender Jerome Boateng is set to shore up Bayern's backline

"You have to go all the way back to between 1994 and 1996 to find the last example of two years passing by without Bayern being crowned champions."

Bayern Munich finished ten points shy of champions Borussia Dortmund last season - and even that only after a late flurry - but are favourites to regain the Bundesliga shield.

There have only been five occasions in the last 13 years in which Bayern Munich have failed to get their hands on the Bundesliga shield and such a disappointment never passes by without major action being taken to prevent a repeat.

That is why you have to go all the way back to between 1994 and 1996 to find the last example of two years passing by without them being crowned champions, though interestingly in that instance it was their current dethroners Borussia Dortmund that kept them away from top spot.

Bayern's latest attempt to rebuild has seen veteran tactician Jupp Heynckes return for a third spell having outperformed them with Bayer Leverkusen in 2010-11. The 66-year-old will be aware that this could be his last chance to add to the two titles that he won with the club over two decades ago.

On the pitch, midfielder Hamit Altintop and veteran striker Miroslav Klose, who hasn't replicated his international form at club level in recent years, have left on free transfers for Real Madrid and Lazio.

The majority of the big names are still there and look set to stay however, like Philipp Lahm, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Arjen Robben, Franck Ribery, Thomas Muller and last term's Bundesliga top scorer Mario Gomez.

In a bid to give those stars a better supporting cast, several additions have been made, with Manuel Neuer arriving in goal and his former Schalke team-mate Rafinha joining from Genoa. The backline is about to be strengthened further with a deal reached to sign Jerome Boateng from Manchester City.

Given the trouble Bayern have had finding forwards who consistently produce, they aren't gambling on Gomez delivering again, instead bringing in second-tier top scorer Nils Petersen, Japanese prodigy Takashi Usami and, most surprisingly, Tranmere's Dale Jennings, who is likely to start in the B team.

The consequence of all that is that they are as ever favourites to win the Bundesliga at [1.61], a long way clear of holders Borussia Dortmund at [6.4]. Odds of [22.0] are offered meanwhile on Heynckes claiming the Champions League trophy that he won with Real Madrid in 1997-98.

Kevin Hatchard previews three matches from the final round of Bundesliga games after a successful season of tipping...

Borussia Dortmund have already been crowned champions but with the attitude they've shown and the type of football they've been playing they're unlikely to stop winning anytime soon. Take advantage, says Kevin Hatchard....

It's been a pretty tough last six or seven years for Borussia Dortmund, who in different circumstances may have gone into adminstration rather than winning this year's Bundesliga. Richard Aikman explains how they did it....

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SPL Betting: Celtic favourites to win slowly evolving league

Scottish Football / Michael / 01 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Celtic manager Neil Lennon salutes his captain Scott Brown after a goal against Rangers

"That Rangers were able to top the table with the largest points haul in six years at a time when they were bankrupt suggests that the gap won’t be closing any time soon."

Celtic haven't won the SPL in any of the last three seasons yet they are the early favourites to be crowned champions of Scotland in 2011-12 at [1.85], with Rangers [2.16] to sustain their dominance in the absence of Walter Smith, who is being replaced by rookie manager Ally McCoist.

But the loss to the league of a ten-time title winner is far from the main problem in Scottish football, as the owners of every SPL club strive to find a format that makes the division more interesting. It's a tricky task given that regardless of whether there are ten, 12 or 14 teams involved, there will still be two significantly stronger than all the others.

The idea of downsizing from 12 to ten is unworkable, according to promoted Dunfermline's chairman John Yorkston, who is unsurprisingly keen on a setup that boosts his side's chances of a sustained spell in the top-flight. His preferred plan is for there to be a pool of 14, though it remains to be seen whether having a dozen lambs to the slaughter will be more entertaining than ten.

So what can be done? One utterly outrageous concept that would understandably be laughed out of Glasgow by the Old Firm but would, in this writer's opinion, succeed in livening things up would be to make double points available against the Big Two, so that a draw against Celtic would gain Kilmarnock two points and a victory over Rangers would earn St Mirren four.

Of course, there's almost no incentive for either of the country's two giants to accept the proposal, however it would have the bonus benefit of preventing Neil Lennon from moaning about the rest of the league not performing to their potential against Rangers, as they'd never be short of motivation.

The other more plausible prospect that gets pundits talking is to march the Gers and Bhoys off into the English football pyramid, yet while that would undoubtedly make for a more competitive SPL, it would see both interest levels in the division and an already unflattering UEFA coefficient plummet.

That Rangers were able to top the table with the largest points haul in six years at a time when they were bankrupt suggests that the gap won't be closing any time soon. Further evidence that the Old Firm's pulling power is still relatively intact is provided by the fact that Reading star Shane Long is rumoured to be on the verge of snubbing Premier League suitors to join Celtic.

Neil Lennon's agent Martin Reilly is adamant that the Celtic boss won't be forced out of the club by those making his life hell, ahead of what promises to be a thrilling finale to a gripping SPL title race.

Something has to give at Parkhead this Sunday as both Celtic and Rangers put their 100% records on the line in a bid to top the SPL.......

Tobias Gourlay imagines that Neil Lennon's first-ever European tie as a manager will end in defeat....

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Eurovision 2011: Favourites prepare for semi stroll

Eurovision Song Contest / Eliot Pollak / 10 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ell and Nikki from Azerbaijan are fancied to go well - and why not - they make a lovely couple don't they?

"Whilst there is obviously a wee bit of glory in winning the semi, the aim for each ‘artist’ would be simply to reach the final. Think of Usain Bolt jogging towards the line in a 100m Olympics heat, before ploughing your earnings into a Semi-Final ‘Winner’ bet."

Europe is such an unwieldy beast that we have to split the Eurovision hopefuls into two - but that shouldn't endanger the fancied countries, says Eliot Pollak

With the big five of Spain, Italy, Germany, France and the old UK all bulldozing their way straight through to the final, our Eurovision attention turns to the two semi-finals, from which ten nations will emerge from each, for the dubious honour of competing in Saturday night's Dusseldorf showdown.

The first point to consider in the betting is the markets themselves. Whilst there is obviously a wee bit of glory in winning the semi, the aim for each 'artist' would be simply to reach the final. Think of Usain Bolt jogging towards the line in a 100m Olympics heat, before ploughing your earnings into a Semi-Final 'Winner' bet. It is little surprise therefore, that most of the liquidity can be found in the 'To Qualify' market.

It is no surprise to see Russia and Azerbaijan as the two favourites to go through - the Azerbaijani entry is hotly fancied to win the whole thing (more of which later in the week).

The long shots to qualify (aside from San Marino) are the Portuguese, possibly due to being one of only two countries in this semi, to risk singing in their native language - the other being Poland. Opting to warble in any language other than English is Eurovision suicide - after all, there has only been one winner since 1998 who has completely shunned our mother tongue.

Having had your bet, BBC3 at 20:00 on Tuesday night is your place to watch the first Semi-Final, where Sara Cox will be revealing to the nation that she is still alive, by ramming a commentary down our necks, in her usual subtle, dulcet tones.

Dan Fitch takes a look at the most weird and wonderful performances at Eurovision....

Dan Fitch takes a look at the problems that face the UK as they attempt to win Eurovision....

Germany will be wheeling out last year's winner Lena Meyer-Landrut while Britain has employed the 'talents' of ageing 'boy' band Blue, even Ireland are putting their faith in the star names with Jedward preparing to perform. But can the proven...

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India are Cricket World Cup favourites after dramatic win

Sri Lanka / Maxliu / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Tendulkar v Murali is the battle to relish in the World Cup Final

"India scored 260, a decent total on a tough pitch, and Pakistan always looked unlikely to reach that target."

Pakistan put up brave chase in thrilling semi-final but it's the Little Master and co. who will take on Sri Lanka in the final...

The match of the century - that's what today's Cricket World Cup semi-final between India and Pakistan was billed as and in the end it was the hosts who prevailed.

India now trade as [1.66] favourites to win the tournament when they meet Sri Lanka [2.48] on Saturday.

MS Dhoni's men were backed at [2.28] midway through the contest after they struggled to build a on strong start. Sachin Tendulkar was their star man with a score of 85 but it could have been different if Pakistan had been sharper in the field.

India scored 260, a decent total on a tough pitch, and Pakistan always looked unlikely to reach that target. Misbah-Ul-Haq was their best batsman with 56 but they were all out for 231, 29 runs short.

The result means that we now have the mouthwatering prospect of seeing Sachin Tendulkar compete against Muttiah Muralitharan in what will undoubtedly be a terrific World Cup final this Saturday.

Let us know what you thought the semi-finals and who you think will win the final below...

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