Olympic Football: Are Uruguay being underestimated?

"Uruguay are the sole nation to have prevailed every time they have participated."

Michael Lintorn offers five reasons to consider backing Uruguay for the men's gold, and also talks up Switzerland's chances...

It isn't often that a case is presented for a competition's third favourites being underrated, however that argument is certainly applicable to the Uruguay men's team at London 2012, who are some distance behind Brazil and Spain at 8.67/1 to claim gold.

The progress
Uruguay are some distance clear of 2.721/1 favourites Brazil in the FIFA world rankings and deservedly so after upstaging them at both World Cup 2010 and Copa America 2011. They reached the semi-finals of the former and won the latter to establish themselves as South America's current top team.

The talent
The age limits rule out the likes of Diego Lugano and Diego Forlan, but Uruguay's squad features plenty of senior stars and an absolutely stunning set of attacking talents trumping Spain and perhaps Brazil. Luis Suarez, Edinson Cavani, Abel Hernandez and Gaston Ramirez are all among their options.

The Olympic pedigree
While Brazil have never secured Olympic gold and Spain only did it on home soil, Uruguay have twice triumphed, with both victories occurring in Europe. They are the sole nation to have prevailed every time they have participated, those wins accompanying their first spell as a major international force.

The coach
Whereas many countries have separate coaches running the Olympic and senior sides, Uruguay can call on the veteran tactician responsible for all their recent success, Oscar Tabarez, in London. Brazil have their national boss Mano Menezes in place too though he is nowhere near as proven at this level.

The Olympic factor
This isn't the World Cup, where only a limited number of teams realistically have a shot at the top prize. The last 11 editions have produced ten different winners and not all of those were established threats, for example Poland, Nigeria and Cameroon. Brazil have competed 12 times without winning.

The other price that leaps out in the market is the 19.018/1 on Switzerland grabbing gold. They aren't paired with any of the four favourites, joining Mexico, South Korea and Gabon in Group B and tend to bring their best to global tournaments, conceding just once in seven games at the last two World Cups. They have wisely called upon international goalkeeper Diego Benaglio too.

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Copa America Betting: Uruguay v Paraguay

Copa America / James Eastham / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Luis Suarez celebrates one of his goals in Uruguay's 2-0 semi-final win over Peru

"Luis Suarez has personal as well as collective reasons to be motivated:he is joint-top of the scoring charts alongside Sergio Aguero (Argentina) so needs just one goal to claim the Golden Boot outright."

After another profitable major tournament James Eastham picks out your best betting options for the Buenos Aires final on Sunday night.

Match Odds

How bizarre that going into the final of a major international tournament, one of the contenders has yet to actually win a game in 90 minutes. In some ways, however, it makes our job easier: it's impossible to recommend Paraguay to win the game in normal time at odds of [4.8] considering their record of five straight draws in the competition.

Both statistically and in terms of the football they have played, Uruguay are a far more appealing prospect. They brushed aside Peru in the semi-finals having defended stoutly in their quarter-final win over Argentina. Given the standards they have set, the [2.04] on Oscar Tabarez's side winning in 90 minutes is a good selection.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Paraguay's defence has been the key to their progress to the final: they played out goalless draws against Brazil in the quarter-finals and Venezuela in the semi-finals before winning on penalties on both occasions. With their back four performing so obdurately, few bettors will want to back anything other than under 2.5 goals here, especially since Uruguay have failed to break the 2.5-goal barrier in their two knock-out games (1-1 v Argentina in the quarter-finals and 2-0 v Peru in the semi-finals).

But the price of [1.53] on unders is so short that the [2.86] on overs almost becomes appealing. If pushed, I'd pick the latter, as Paraguay will obviously have to show a different side to their game (should one exist) if Uruguay open the scoring before half-time - something they've done in three of five games so far.

To Score

Luis Suarez was in magnificent form in the semis, scoring both goals in the win over Peru to underline the ability that has made him such a favourite at Anfield since he arrived on Merseyside six months ago. If Uruguay are to win this game without needing to resort to penalties, the 24-year-old striker is the man most likely to break the deadlock. He has personal as well as collective reasons to be motivated, too: he is joint-top of the scoring charts alongside Sergio Aguero (Argentina) so needs just one goal to claim the Golden Boot outright. At [2.6], Suarez looks a good price to score in normal time.

Uruguay Win to Nil

If you believe Uruguay will win in 90 minutes but are looking for a bigger price than the [2.04] mentioned in the Match Odds section, the best selection is on Uruguay to win without a conceding a goal. After all, they're facing a side that has failed to score in their last 240 minutes of football and found the net in only two of five matches in the competition. Uruguay's defence stood firm in the semi against a Peru attack that bears comparison with Paraguay's, so 'Yes' in the Uruguay Win to Nil market will attract plenty of takes at [2.88].

Best Bet: Luis Suarez in the 'To Score' market @ [2.6]
Other Recommended Bet: Uruguay to win in 90 minutes @ [2.04].

Don't forget - every single Copa America game is available for free via Betfair's fantastic Live Video service.

James Eastham has made 4.32pts profit from 23pts staked on the tournament so far (18.8% ROI). You can follow him on twitter: @james_eastham

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Copa America Betting: Why Uruguay are worthy favourites

Copa America / Michael Lintorn / 21 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Oscar Tabarez's continues to prove a positive influence on his Uruguay side

"Paraguay have shown twice in Argentina and once at the World Cup that they have the nerves of steel required when it comes to shootouts, converting 12 of their 13 penalties."

It has been a tournament littered with shocks, yet with two teams left, Uruguay are firm favourites to take the trophy. Michael Lintorn looks at whether that status is justified...

Without actually performing that well, Paraguay have reached the Copa America Final undefeated. But despite proving extremely difficult to beat, with Brazil twice failing to find a way past them, they are [3.0] outsiders to be crowned champions.

The reason for that is the huge amount of faith that punters have in Uruguay, the best performing South American nation at last summer's World Cup, who are [1.49] favourites to be the last ones standing once again, and have been responsible for 79 per cent of the money traded in the market.

Uruguay tick all the boxes when it comes to potential winners. They have the superior historical record in the competition having claimed 14 titles to Paraguay's two, the last of which was earned 32 years ago.

In addition, they have been the more impressive of the two in the latest edition, albeit having only won two of their five games in normal time, which is why they are above-evens at [2.08] to triumph in 90 minutes. All five of Paraguay's matches have finished level.

That is the main concern when it comes to backing Oscar Tabarez's side to get their hands on the trophy, especially as Paraguay have shown twice in Argentina and once at the World Cup that they have the nerves of steel required when it comes to shootouts, converting 12 of their 13 penalties.

However, while Gerardo Martino's men are yet to lose, they have faced just one other country ranked among South America's seven finest by FIFA, an out-of-form Brazil. By contrast, they have ended three of their last four meetings with Uruguay empty-handed.

Diego Forlan did the damage in their last clash but Luis Suarez will be desperate to be the difference-maker this time as he bids to pull clear of eliminated joint-top goalscorer Sergio Aguero. The Liverpool forward is the [1.25] frontrunner in that market.

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