Copa America Betting: Uruguay v Paraguay

Copa America / James Eastham / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Luis Suarez celebrates one of his goals in Uruguay's 2-0 semi-final win over Peru

"Luis Suarez has personal as well as collective reasons to be motivated:he is joint-top of the scoring charts alongside Sergio Aguero (Argentina) so needs just one goal to claim the Golden Boot outright."

After another profitable major tournament James Eastham picks out your best betting options for the Buenos Aires final on Sunday night.

Match Odds

How bizarre that going into the final of a major international tournament, one of the contenders has yet to actually win a game in 90 minutes. In some ways, however, it makes our job easier: it's impossible to recommend Paraguay to win the game in normal time at odds of [4.8] considering their record of five straight draws in the competition.

Both statistically and in terms of the football they have played, Uruguay are a far more appealing prospect. They brushed aside Peru in the semi-finals having defended stoutly in their quarter-final win over Argentina. Given the standards they have set, the [2.04] on Oscar Tabarez's side winning in 90 minutes is a good selection.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Paraguay's defence has been the key to their progress to the final: they played out goalless draws against Brazil in the quarter-finals and Venezuela in the semi-finals before winning on penalties on both occasions. With their back four performing so obdurately, few bettors will want to back anything other than under 2.5 goals here, especially since Uruguay have failed to break the 2.5-goal barrier in their two knock-out games (1-1 v Argentina in the quarter-finals and 2-0 v Peru in the semi-finals).

But the price of [1.53] on unders is so short that the [2.86] on overs almost becomes appealing. If pushed, I'd pick the latter, as Paraguay will obviously have to show a different side to their game (should one exist) if Uruguay open the scoring before half-time - something they've done in three of five games so far.

To Score

Luis Suarez was in magnificent form in the semis, scoring both goals in the win over Peru to underline the ability that has made him such a favourite at Anfield since he arrived on Merseyside six months ago. If Uruguay are to win this game without needing to resort to penalties, the 24-year-old striker is the man most likely to break the deadlock. He has personal as well as collective reasons to be motivated, too: he is joint-top of the scoring charts alongside Sergio Aguero (Argentina) so needs just one goal to claim the Golden Boot outright. At [2.6], Suarez looks a good price to score in normal time.

Uruguay Win to Nil

If you believe Uruguay will win in 90 minutes but are looking for a bigger price than the [2.04] mentioned in the Match Odds section, the best selection is on Uruguay to win without a conceding a goal. After all, they're facing a side that has failed to score in their last 240 minutes of football and found the net in only two of five matches in the competition. Uruguay's defence stood firm in the semi against a Peru attack that bears comparison with Paraguay's, so 'Yes' in the Uruguay Win to Nil market will attract plenty of takes at [2.88].

Best Bet: Luis Suarez in the 'To Score' market @ [2.6]
Other Recommended Bet: Uruguay to win in 90 minutes @ [2.04].

Don't forget - every single Copa America game is available for free via Betfair's fantastic Live Video service.

James Eastham has made 4.32pts profit from 23pts staked on the tournament so far (18.8% ROI). You can follow him on twitter: @james_eastham

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Copa America Betting: Paraguay progress amidst chaos

Copa America / Michael Lintorn / 21 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Paraguay celebrating their shootout success before things turned nasty

"Paraguay [[3.0]] can achieve an even more unique feat by becoming the first team to triumph in the competition without actually winning a single game."

A post-match scrap overshadowed the action on the pitch as Paraguay earned a place in Sunday's final against Uruguay by defeating Venezuela on penalties.

After the shocks of the quarter-finals, the semi-finals went the way that the odds suggested, with Paraguay joining Uruguay in Sunday's Copa America Final courtesy of a penalty shootout victory over the tournament's surprise package Venezuela.

And while the [1.49] favourites to claim the trophy, Uruguay, will be looking to make history with a record 15th title, Paraguay [[3.0]] can achieve an even more unique feat by becoming the first team to triumph in the competition without actually winning a single game.

This was Gerardo Martino's side's second straight spot-kick success and followed three draws in the group stage, meaning every single one of their encounters to date have finished level, with the [3.25] on them completing a full house in Buenos Aries sure to appeal.

If they were unfortunate not to take three points when they last met Venezuela in Group B though, seeing a 3-1 lead eradicated in the final few minutes of that match, then there is no doubt that lady luck was in their corner in the final-four collision.

Venezuela, who were [310.0] to go all the way before it all started on July 1, had a goal disallowed and hit the woodwork three times before eventually being beaten in the shootout, punished for one tame attempt by Franklin Lucena.

Their sense of injustice was strengthened by the referee's failure to dismiss Dario Veron, who went on to score the decisive penalty.

Sadly, their fine effort in this year's Copa America might not live as long in the memory as the scenes that followed their elimination. The two squads engaged in the on-the-pitch brawl that appears almost a monthly tradition in South America, which is expected to be investigated by the organisers.

As far as the final is concerned, Uruguay boast the head-to-head advantage having won three of the last four clashes, and are [2.02] to end Paraguay's drawing streak by prevailing in 90 minutes. Don't forget - every single Copa America game is available for free via Betfair's fantastic Live Video service.

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Copa America Diary: Paraguay must tighten up against Brazil

Copa America / Tim Vickery / 17 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Paraguay fans prepare to cheer on their team against the defending champions

"Paraguay are leaking, Brazil keeper Julio Cesar has not been the same since last year’s World Cup, and the possibility of Thiago Silva missing out increases the chances of goals."

Tim Vickery marvels at Brazil's strength in depth and wonders if Paraguay can cut out the defenisves lapses that have cost them so far. Meanwhile, could Venezuela shock Chile?

Few teams in the world are capable of what Brazil did last Wednesday. For much of the game against Ecuador they were dismal, horribly slow and laboured. Their goalkeeper had an off night. And yet they still won in comfort.

Granted, it was only Ecuador, a team experiencing problems in both penalty areas. But even so, what stands out about Brazil is the depth of individual talent and athleticism through the team - Argentina, for example, would kill to have a full-back with half the attacking threat of a Maicon or a Daniel Alves. So however poor the collective performance, there is always the chance that a rapid counter-attack or a solo moment of magic could change the scenario.

Last Saturday, Paraguay went into the 89th minute holding a 2-1 lead against Brazil, and then were victims of one such moment, Ganso's pass setting up Fred for the equaliser. Paraguay's template for today's match in La Plata will almost certainly be the same. They will seek to close down Brazil's full backs - and hope that the tricky Estigarribia down the left proves as effective against Maicon as he was last week against Daniel Alves.

Coach Gerardo Martino will want to win the ball high up the field and break quickly. A concern is the latest injury suffered by Roque Santa Cruz, man of the match last Saturday - though if he fails to recover Nelson Haedo Valdez is a lively replacement. And Brazil have an important injury doubt of their own, key centre back Thiago Silva struggling to be fit in time.

The message from the Paraguay camp is that today's game is their equivalent of last year's World Cup quarter-final, when they pushed eventual champions Spain all the way before going down 1-0. Perhaps the fear is that the memories of giving away a late equaliser last Saturday are fresher. Martino confessed that his side were still suffering the trauma of that goal when they astonishingly allowed Venezuela to draw on Wednesday despite going into the last five minutes with a 3-1 lead. There will be no repeat of the back three formation used at the start of the Venezuela match - but will there be a repeat of late defensive jitters if Paraguay are holding a lead towards the end against Brazil? The fact that extra time will now be played if scores are level after 90 minutes - an innovation in the Copa - surely tips the balance all the more in the direction of the favourites.

Meanwhile, Chile are clear favourites against Venezuela in San Juan, where the red hordes will once more cross the border to roar on their team. Earlier this week Chile's former great striker Ivan Zamorano said that he would give almost anything from his own career for the chance to play just 15 minutes with the current side - an indication of the enthusiasm Chile are generating.

That defensive unit, though, continues to be a concern. And against Paraguay last Wednesday Venezuela not only gave a demonstration of their fighting spirit and self -esteem but also showed their strength in depth, making five changes with no appreciative loss of performance. This is the consequence of work carried out over a number of years - Venezuela qualified for the 2009 World Youth Cup, and have been feeding in players from that generation to the senior side. They are no longer the whipping boys, and though Chile are quite rightly favourites, Venezuela [6.2] are worth a look

Bet of the day: I'm going to go for over 3.5 goals in the Brazil-Paraguay game [3.85]. Paraguay are leaking, Brazil keeper Julio Cesar has not been the same since his mistake in last year's World Cup quarter-final, and the possibility of Thiago Silva missing out increases the chances of goals.

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Copa America Betting: Brazil v Paraguay

Copa America / Tobias Gourlay / 16 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Nestor Ortigoza is Paraguay's key player

"If Martino puts two narrow lines of four on the pitch to stifle Brazil, the Seleccao’s best route to goal might be with Maicon"

Brazil and Paraguay meet for a second time in the tournament on Sunday. Tobias Gourlay fancies Mario Menezes' favourites will do better than last time

Brazil

Thiago Silva's participation is doubtful after he missed training on Friday with a thigh injury. Benfica's Luisao or Chelsea's David Luiz would be the most likely replacements to join captain Lucio in central defence.

Maicon will probably keep his place at right-back ahead of Dani Alves, who made one of the mistakes that have led to Brazil's statistically sound defence conceding twice in each of their last two group games. Goalkeeper Julio Cesar has also been unusually error-prone.

Mario Menezes' other change might be to bring Jadson, who connected well with the playmaker Ganso against Paraguay last time, back into the team for Robinho.

Paraguay

Paraguay are perhaps the only team in this low-scoring tournament to have enhanced their reputation for attacking football. Their stock is now high because their starting point was low - five matches in South Africa last summer produced only five goals for them and their opponents - but the skilful midfield play of San Lorenzo's Nestor Ortigoza should not be ignored.

Gerard Martino, the coach, cannot rely on defensive errors by Brazil again. To make the semi-finals, he must recover his team's old defensive solidity without diminishing Ortigoza's creative influence.

Match Odds

Brazil are [1.66] favourites to win in 90 minutes, despite being a minute away from losing to Paraguay in Cordoba last Saturday.

Menezes' four-man offensive unit seemed to have learnt a bit more about each other in the intervening victory over Ecuador.

Reviewing Paraguay's five tournament goals so far, they have come from defensive mistakes (two by Brazil, one by Venezuela) and set pieces (a corner and a free-kick near the corner flag against Venezuela).

Centre-forward Lucas Barrios did not have a single shot on goal against Brazil last time out. Ecuador shut the entire team out in a goalless draw. If Lucio organises his defence properly at set pieces and the rest of the back four stays focused on its defensive duties, Brazil should outscore them.

Over/Under Goals

Quarter-finals have often been high-scoring in recent Copa Americas. Since their introduction in 1993, 17/28 have gone Over 2.5 Goals.

Brazil's last two matches have included ten goals - that's as many as we saw in six Group A games and six Group C games. Paraguay's most recent outings have been just as high-octane, drawing their final Group B game 3-3 with Venezuela.

Six of the teams' ten meetings this century have gone Over 2.5 Goals, which is a [2.10] shot for this game. It is a tempting play, but risky until we know how Martino is going to set up Paraguay.

To Score

Neymar and Alexandre Pato each scored twice in Brazil's 4-2 win over Ecuador. It is popular to demarcate Brazil's attacking unit as a quarter, but these two are much more likely goalscorers than Ganso, Robinho or Jadson. Neymar and Pato took nine of the team's 13 shots against Ecuador and, if you back both of them to score anytime, you'll make a profit if either one of them find the back of the net.

Maicon, the right-back, took two of the other four shots against Ecuador. Both of them were on target. If Martino puts two narrow lines of four on the pitch to stifle Brazil, the Seleccao's best route to goal might be with Maicon around the outside. [12.0] would be a good price on a player who has scored six times in 63 internationals.

Best Bet: Back Brazil @ [1.66] to win?
Recommended Bet: Back Maicon To Score @ [12.0]

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

Don't forget - every single Copa America game is available for free via Betfair's fantastic Live Video service.

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