Copa America 
/ Tobias Gourlay / 16 July 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Nestor Ortigoza is Paraguay's key player
"If Martino puts two narrow lines of four on the pitch to stifle Brazil, the Seleccao’s best route to goal might be with Maicon"
Brazil and Paraguay meet for a second time in the tournament on Sunday. Tobias Gourlay fancies Mario Menezes' favourites will do better than last time
Brazil
Thiago Silva's participation is doubtful after he missed training on Friday with a thigh injury. Benfica's Luisao or Chelsea's David Luiz would be the most likely replacements to join captain Lucio in central defence.
Maicon will probably keep his place at right-back ahead of Dani Alves, who made one of the mistakes that have led to Brazil's statistically sound defence conceding twice in each of their last two group games. Goalkeeper Julio Cesar has also been unusually error-prone.
Mario Menezes' other change might be to bring Jadson, who connected well with the playmaker Ganso against Paraguay last time, back into the team for Robinho.
Paraguay
Paraguay are perhaps the only team in this low-scoring tournament to have enhanced their reputation for attacking football. Their stock is now high because their starting point was low - five matches in South Africa last summer produced only five goals for them and their opponents - but the skilful midfield play of San Lorenzo's Nestor Ortigoza should not be ignored.
Gerard Martino, the coach, cannot rely on defensive errors by Brazil again. To make the semi-finals, he must recover his team's old defensive solidity without diminishing Ortigoza's creative influence.
Match Odds
Brazil are [1.66] favourites to win in 90 minutes, despite being a minute away from losing to Paraguay in Cordoba last Saturday.
Menezes' four-man offensive unit seemed to have learnt a bit more about each other in the intervening victory over Ecuador.
Reviewing Paraguay's five tournament goals so far, they have come from defensive mistakes (two by Brazil, one by Venezuela) and set pieces (a corner and a free-kick near the corner flag against Venezuela).
Centre-forward Lucas Barrios did not have a single shot on goal against Brazil last time out. Ecuador shut the entire team out in a goalless draw. If Lucio organises his defence properly at set pieces and the rest of the back four stays focused on its defensive duties, Brazil should outscore them.
Over/Under Goals
Quarter-finals have often been high-scoring in recent Copa Americas. Since their introduction in 1993, 17/28 have gone Over 2.5 Goals.
Brazil's last two matches have included ten goals - that's as many as we saw in six Group A games and six Group C games. Paraguay's most recent outings have been just as high-octane, drawing their final Group B game 3-3 with Venezuela.
Six of the teams' ten meetings this century have gone Over 2.5 Goals, which is a [2.10] shot for this game. It is a tempting play, but risky until we know how Martino is going to set up Paraguay.
To Score
Neymar and Alexandre Pato each scored twice in Brazil's 4-2 win over Ecuador. It is popular to demarcate Brazil's attacking unit as a quarter, but these two are much more likely goalscorers than Ganso, Robinho or Jadson. Neymar and Pato took nine of the team's 13 shots against Ecuador and, if you back both of them to score anytime, you'll make a profit if either one of them find the back of the net.
Maicon, the right-back, took two of the other four shots against Ecuador. Both of them were on target. If Martino puts two narrow lines of four on the pitch to stifle Brazil, the Seleccao's best route to goal might be with Maicon around the outside. [12.0] would be a good price on a player who has scored six times in 63 internationals.
Best Bet: Back Brazil @ [1.66] to win?
Recommended Bet: Back Maicon To Score @ [12.0]
Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay
Don't forget - every single Copa America game is available for free via Betfair's fantastic Live Video service.
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