Copa America 
/ Tim Vickery / 17 July 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Paraguay fans prepare to cheer on their team against the defending champions
"Paraguay are leaking, Brazil keeper Julio Cesar has not been the same since last year’s World Cup, and the possibility of Thiago Silva missing out increases the chances of goals."
Tim Vickery marvels at Brazil's strength in depth and wonders if Paraguay can cut out the defenisves lapses that have cost them so far. Meanwhile, could Venezuela shock Chile?
Few teams in the world are capable of what Brazil did last Wednesday. For much of the game against Ecuador they were dismal, horribly slow and laboured. Their goalkeeper had an off night. And yet they still won in comfort.
Granted, it was only Ecuador, a team experiencing problems in both penalty areas. But even so, what stands out about Brazil is the depth of individual talent and athleticism through the team - Argentina, for example, would kill to have a full-back with half the attacking threat of a Maicon or a Daniel Alves. So however poor the collective performance, there is always the chance that a rapid counter-attack or a solo moment of magic could change the scenario.
Last Saturday, Paraguay went into the 89th minute holding a 2-1 lead against Brazil, and then were victims of one such moment, Ganso's pass setting up Fred for the equaliser. Paraguay's template for today's match in La Plata will almost certainly be the same. They will seek to close down Brazil's full backs - and hope that the tricky Estigarribia down the left proves as effective against Maicon as he was last week against Daniel Alves.
Coach Gerardo Martino will want to win the ball high up the field and break quickly. A concern is the latest injury suffered by Roque Santa Cruz, man of the match last Saturday - though if he fails to recover Nelson Haedo Valdez is a lively replacement. And Brazil have an important injury doubt of their own, key centre back Thiago Silva struggling to be fit in time.
The message from the Paraguay camp is that today's game is their equivalent of last year's World Cup quarter-final, when they pushed eventual champions Spain all the way before going down 1-0. Perhaps the fear is that the memories of giving away a late equaliser last Saturday are fresher. Martino confessed that his side were still suffering the trauma of that goal when they astonishingly allowed Venezuela to draw on Wednesday despite going into the last five minutes with a 3-1 lead. There will be no repeat of the back three formation used at the start of the Venezuela match - but will there be a repeat of late defensive jitters if Paraguay are holding a lead towards the end against Brazil? The fact that extra time will now be played if scores are level after 90 minutes - an innovation in the Copa - surely tips the balance all the more in the direction of the favourites.
Meanwhile, Chile are clear favourites against Venezuela in San Juan, where the red hordes will once more cross the border to roar on their team. Earlier this week Chile's former great striker Ivan Zamorano said that he would give almost anything from his own career for the chance to play just 15 minutes with the current side - an indication of the enthusiasm Chile are generating.
That defensive unit, though, continues to be a concern. And against Paraguay last Wednesday Venezuela not only gave a demonstration of their fighting spirit and self -esteem but also showed their strength in depth, making five changes with no appreciative loss of performance. This is the consequence of work carried out over a number of years - Venezuela qualified for the 2009 World Youth Cup, and have been feeding in players from that generation to the senior side. They are no longer the whipping boys, and though Chile are quite rightly favourites, Venezuela [6.2] are worth a look
Bet of the day: I'm going to go for over 3.5 goals in the Brazil-Paraguay game [3.85]. Paraguay are leaking, Brazil keeper Julio Cesar has not been the same since his mistake in last year's World Cup quarter-final, and the possibility of Thiago Silva missing out increases the chances of goals.
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