Olympic Football: Are Uruguay being underestimated?

"Uruguay are the sole nation to have prevailed every time they have participated."

Michael Lintorn offers five reasons to consider backing Uruguay for the men's gold, and also talks up Switzerland's chances...

It isn't often that a case is presented for a competition's third favourites being underrated, however that argument is certainly applicable to the Uruguay men's team at London 2012, who are some distance behind Brazil and Spain at 8.67/1 to claim gold.

The progress
Uruguay are some distance clear of 2.721/1 favourites Brazil in the FIFA world rankings and deservedly so after upstaging them at both World Cup 2010 and Copa America 2011. They reached the semi-finals of the former and won the latter to establish themselves as South America's current top team.

The talent
The age limits rule out the likes of Diego Lugano and Diego Forlan, but Uruguay's squad features plenty of senior stars and an absolutely stunning set of attacking talents trumping Spain and perhaps Brazil. Luis Suarez, Edinson Cavani, Abel Hernandez and Gaston Ramirez are all among their options.

The Olympic pedigree
While Brazil have never secured Olympic gold and Spain only did it on home soil, Uruguay have twice triumphed, with both victories occurring in Europe. They are the sole nation to have prevailed every time they have participated, those wins accompanying their first spell as a major international force.

The coach
Whereas many countries have separate coaches running the Olympic and senior sides, Uruguay can call on the veteran tactician responsible for all their recent success, Oscar Tabarez, in London. Brazil have their national boss Mano Menezes in place too though he is nowhere near as proven at this level.

The Olympic factor
This isn't the World Cup, where only a limited number of teams realistically have a shot at the top prize. The last 11 editions have produced ten different winners and not all of those were established threats, for example Poland, Nigeria and Cameroon. Brazil have competed 12 times without winning.

The other price that leaps out in the market is the 19.018/1 on Switzerland grabbing gold. They aren't paired with any of the four favourites, joining Mexico, South Korea and Gabon in Group B and tend to bring their best to global tournaments, conceding just once in seven games at the last two World Cups. They have wisely called upon international goalkeeper Diego Benaglio too.

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Olympics 2012 Build-Up: The worst Olympic moments

As much as we can't wait for the London Olympics and have many fond memories of previous stagings, there has been some not-so-memorable moments in the Games history. Alex Lee looks back at some of the worst...

Terrorism

Emotions often run high in the Olympic Games, but people having a bit of a cry after narrowly missing out on the medals pales into insignificance alongside the altogether more horrific events of 1972. That year, Palestinian terrorist organization Black September was found responsible for the kidnapping and murder of eleven Israeli athletes and officials, and the fatal shooting of a West German policeman, during the Olympics in Munich.

Tit-for-tat boycotts

Rather than concentrate on putting aside their long-rumbling political differences by competing in the Olympics, 1980 Olympics saw the USA boycott the Moscow Olympics as part of a package of actions initiated by the Americans to protest the Soviet war in Afghanistan. With depressing predictability, this was followed four years later in 1984 when the Olympics was boycotted by the Soviet Union and other Communist-friendly countries.

Ben Johnson drugs cheat

The 1988 100 metres final had been hyped up beyond recognition in the days building up to it, but the pre-race excitement was nothing compared to the post-event shock. Carl Lewis was widely expected to coast the race, but Canadian Ben Johnson breezed past Lewis as if he'd imbued some sort of wonder drug. Trouble was, it turned out he had done. Drugs cheat Johnson, as he is now commonly known, had taken the banned steroid stanozolol and his gold medal was swiftly removed from his trophy cabinet. Lewis' silver, therefore, became gold and Linford Christie's bronze became silver.

Mary Decker/Zola Budd

It's rare that a women's race is given as much media attention as this one. South African-born and barefoot runner Zola Budd, who had been 'fast-tracked' through as a British citizen for the purpose of competing in the 1984 Olympics faced the glamorous and much-supported Mary Decker in the final of the 3000 metres. To cut to the chase, Budd and Decker collided three times just past the half-way point of the race, with the third collision sending Decker sprawling off the track and clearly upsetting Budd. The partisan crowd booed Budd, blaming her for Decker's downfall, when video evidence has since proved the incident was totally accidental. Budd finished a disappointing seventh, later claiming that she slowed down so as not to face the wrath of the crowd if she'd won.

Greg Louganis smashes his head

Despite the incident being broadcast with predictable regularity every time diving is mentioned on TV, you cannot help but scream 'OUCH' when Greg Louganis cracks his head against the diving board. In trying to perform a complicated mid-air manoeuvre (a reverse 2 and a half pike, fact fans), Louganis suffered concussion after his miscalculation caused him to smash his bonce, rather than simply hurtle gracefully water-wards. The American had the last laugh, however, taking the gold medal in two events - the three metre springboard and the 10 metre platform.

Paula Radcliffe misses out

Multi-medallist Paula Radcliffe holds the World Record for the marathon and has won countless cross country, 5000 metres and 10,000 metres events in her career, but an Olympic gold medal has eluded her, with her most recent attempt, in 2008, ending ignominiously. Despite winning the New York Marathon in November 2007, Radcliffe finished a lowly 23rd which with hindsight wasn't a bad effort considering she'd broken her leg in the May.

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July Cup Preview: The Olympic picks

Athleticism and talent is what the Olympics is all about, and the same goes for horse racing, so Jamie Lynch has married the two to try and unearth the July Cup winner...

Hidden Gem-ili. Adam had 'em. Adam and Beli-eve. Gemili, Gemili, Gemili, Gemili: Life is but a dream. If you could patent headlines like you can patent inventions, then we need never do a patent bet again, too busy counting cash, because some of the above, and a few better ones besides, will be used and abused in the next month in conjunction with the big Olympics-related story: Adam Gemili.

Gemili, the new sensation of British athletics, this week became World Junior 100m Champion, in the process breaking the national youth record with a non-Turftrax time of 10.05 secs. To put that in some context, the quickest 100m times in the world so far this year have been 9.75 by Yohan Blake, 9.76 by Usain Bolt, and 4.66 (hand timed) by Tom Queally at around 2:32pm on the 19th of last month. What makes it all the more of a feel-good, flag-waving, Richard Curtis-esque story is that, only six months ago, the boy Gemili had an entirely different career, as a footballer, employed by Dagenham & Redbridge and playing on loan for lowly Thurrock.

Adam Gemili had come to a dead end down one career path, as a footballer, but all along he had the potential to be a champion sprinter, and here he is with the chance to express himself truly and fully by showcasing his speed on the biggest stage. Sounds a lot like Strong Suit, who has come to a dead end down one career path, as a miler, but all along had the potential to be a champion sprinter, and here he is with the chance to express himself truly and fully by showcasing his speed on the biggest stage, in the Group 1 July Cup.

He's treading a well-worn path. Since 2000, seven July Cup winners - Agnes World, Mozart, Pastoral Pursuits, Les Arcs, Marchand d'Or, Starspangledbanner and Dream Ahead - had tried to be moulded into something they weren't, raced over at least a mile (or two, amazingly, in the case of Les Arcs), prior to reverting to sprinting with a Group 1 bang.

Strong Suit is top-rated by Timeform in the July Cup, and therefore you might think it's a very simple equation: best form in the line-up + high cruising speed + drop back to sprinting = certainty. If only. If only racing was that simple. Unfortunately, the calculation doesn't end there, as some division has to be done, and in Strong Suit's case it's the going. Since he was slammed by Dream Ahead in the Middle Park in October 2010, incidentally the last time he raced at as short as six furlongs, Strong Suit hasn't gone near soft ground, by connections' design, and conditions at Newmarket have reduced his winning percentage chance (to 9%) as well as my enthusiasm for him: from McDonalds-coffee hot to carvery-veg lukewarm.

If Strong Suit is Adam Gemili, let's see if we can fit the other July Cup contenders to appropriate Olympians, past or present, and work out their percentage chance.

BATED BREATH: Viktor Lisitsky. The nearly man. Russian gymnast Lisitsky, who competed at the '64 and '68 games, holds the unenviable record of most silver medals (five) without any gold. Lisitsky would have swept the board in many other eras, in common with Bated Breath who has had to settle for second in four Group 1s so far. Still, a brilliant, consistent athlete, and damned handsome to boot. Winning chance: 21%

DANDY BOY: Adam Gemili's slightly less talented brother, if he's got one. To label him as a poor man's Strong Suit is unfair, so let's say a not-so-rich man's Strong Suit; shorter on raw ability but identical in profile in that he has spent much of his time over longer trips while looking a sprinter, a point proved at Royal Ascot when, reverted to six furlongs, he won the Wokingham under a big weight. Winning chance: 8%

GENKI: Brendan Foster (in his capacity as commentator and not athlete). Familiar and always nice to see him at the big events, but while he just about justified his presence in his prime, he's not really up to it these days. Winning chance: 1.5%

HAWKEYETHENOO: Liz McColgan. Scottish, tough, likeable, legs of iron, but too one paced to win at the top level. Winning chance: 1.5%

KRYPTON FACTOR: Wilson Kipketer. Shunned the country he started in, but took off once he did. Won three times at the World Championships, or the Dubai Carnival as it was for Krypton Factor, but struggled to reproduce that form in other competitions. Winning chance: 3.8%

LIBRANNO: John Regis. Powerful, front-running, barrel-shaped, second-tier sprinter, always gave his running - and won more than his share at Group 2 level - but not good enough to outspeed the leading sprinters of his time. Winning chance: 6%

MAYSON: Phillips Idowu. Injury restricted early career, yet looked a prospective worldbeater once he got going, but wheels have come off lately, and questions persist about current physical well-being. Winning chance: 3%

SEPOY: Jana Pittman-Rawlinson. Australian 400m hurdler who was prolific in her field, until some British-based intervention (married English athlete Chris Rawlinson), and the problems started then, never quite the same under different management. Winning chance: 7%

SIRIUS PROSPECT: Mo Farah. Transformed and very successful in 2011, looked destined for the top, but not yet the same force this year, albeit step back in right direction last time out. Winning chance: 5%

SOCIETY ROCK: Matthew Clive Pinsent. Often overshadowed, often underestimated, often overlooked, but a very high-achiever with several 'been there and done that' t-shirts in his wardrobe, and he has more power and ability than most of his rivals in this particular Olympic line-up. A good sidekick obviously helps, though, and Society Rock has the best in Ryan Moore. Winning chance: 23%

THE CHEKA: Nick Skelton. Seems to have been around for donkey's years - in fact he has been around for donkey's years - but the big prize always has been and always will be beyond him. Winning chance: 2.4%

ORTENSIA: Willie Davenport. An Olympian who liked the sun but evidently wasn't so good in colder climates: he won gold in the '68 summer Olympics (110m hurdles) but trailed down the field as part of the bobsleigh team at the winter games in '80. Ortensia didn't look so effective at wintry Royal Ascot as she had at home in sunny Australia. Winning chance: 8.4%

REPLY: Tom Daley. Precocious. Might not have trained on as expected. Winning chance: 2.6%

FIRE LILY: Beth Tweddle. No beauty. Younger than you might think, because she's done a lot, but hard to see her suddenly finding the required improvement to win on the biggest stage, at which she's tried and failed previously. Winning chance: 5.8%

There it is then, the July Cup in Olympian format, and the one with the highest percentage winning chance, according to the scientific and precise calculations, is Matthew Pinsent, a.k.a. Society Rock. Contrary to popular belief, Society Rock isn't only an Ascot specialist, but compliant with popular belief, Society Rock does relish soft ground, and proven ability under such conditions is absolutely crucial, as Strong Suit (a.k.a Adam Gemili) may discover. While all eyes were on Black Caviar (a.k.a. Fanny Blankers-Koen) and the unfolding drama at the line in the Diamond Jubilee, Society Rock was flying home after a slow start, but for which he'd have won, and he can make amends here.

Recommendation: Row in with Pinsent, a.k.a.Society Rock, in the July Cup.

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