African Cup Of Nations 
/ James Eastham / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Didier Drogba and team-mates celebrate a goal in their 3-0 quarter-final win
"Do Mali have the firepower to breach the Ivory Coast defence and make a game of this semi-final? My feeling is yes, even though Mali have managed just four goals in four games. They have more attacking talent than that goals tally suggests – and, as they're rank outsiders, all the pressure is on Ivory Coast."
James Eastham expects Ivory Coast to win but says their magnificent defensive record is about to end.
Mali v Ivory Coast, 19:00 GMT, British Eurosport, Match Odds: Mali 9.2, Ivory Coast 1.51, The Draw 4.3.
Ivory Coast were pre-season favourites to lift the trophy and have retained top position in the outright betting all the way through the tournament.
After recording three wins out of three in the group phase the Ivorians beat Equatorial Guinea 3-0 to take their place in the last four.
Despite the wonderful attacking talent in their squad Ivory Coast's progress has been built on a defence that has yet to concede a goal. Progress has been functional rather than flamboyant, but it's working for a nation determined to end their trophy drought.
"When we played the Nations Cup in 2010, 2006 and other years, we played great football and we didn't win anything," St Etienne attacker Max Gradel told the BBC. "But today the most important thing - as the coach tells us every day - is winning and it doesn't matter how you win.
"Everything our coach is telling us to do, we're doing it. On the pitch and off the pitch he's the boss."
Do Mali have the firepower to breach the Ivory Coast defence and make a game of this semi-final? My feeling is yes, even though Mali have managed just four goals in four games. They have more attacking talent than that goals tally suggests - and, as they're rank outsiders, all the pressure is on Ivory Coast.
That's why I would avoid the Ivory Coast to win to nil market at [1.91] or Ivory Coast to keep a clean sheet at [1.81]. Mali will throw everything at the favourites, and have better attacking players than Equatorial Guinea, who failed to find the net in the quarter-finals.
My main selection on the game would be Over 2.5 Goals at [2.28]. This is because Ivory Coast scored three times in the last eight and I give Mali a good chance of scoring, but also because of the stats from this tournament and semi-finals down the years. Fourteen of 28 (50%) matches in the competition so far have featured over 2.5 goals, and six of the last 12 Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals have had three goals or more. The odds-against price is therefore worth taking.
My second bet would be to oppose Ivory Coast keeping a clean sheet. The market offers a good price on the favourites conceding because of their excellent defensive record to date. You can back 'No' in the Ivory Coast Clean Sheet? market at [2.18].
Finally, there is historic evidence that one the semi-finals will result in a comfortable victory. Five of the last 12 Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals have seen a side triumph by three goals or more (two 3-0 scorelines, two 4-0s and a 4-1). Therefore you ought to consider backing Ivory Coast -1.5 Asian handicap at around [2.25] if you expect Didier Drogba and co. to get through.
Best Bet: Mali v Ivory Coast Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.28].
Other Recommended Bet: Ivory Coast not to Keep a Clean Sheet @ [2.18].
P&L: £10 staked on all James Eastham's tips during the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America would have netted you a profit of £223.70 (33.4% ROI)
James Eastham expects this semi-final to go with the market even though Ghana have disappointed so far....
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