BMW PGA Championship: New drive needed for a winning Serg at the BMW

"Garcia was the major omission on that contact list. And major omissions are, of course, something at which Sergio excels."

Romilly Evans profiles Sergio Garcia who bids to put fifth-major implosion behind him at the European Tour's equivalent...

It may not be a truth trumpeted by those self-help gurus, but the secret to happiness is low expectations. You heard it here first. High expectations mean you're seldom elated and regularly disappointed. Lesser hopes, on the other hope, mean you're often pleasantly surprised.

Managing such outlooks, however, is easier said than done. And that fact goes some way to explaining exactly why Sergio Garcia has been looking so glum in recent seasons, despite possessing a game which effortlessly puts him on the periphery of the world's top 10 even when he's not playing his best. Four victories on three world tours in the past 18 months have also re-established Garcia as a consistent winner, but with the rub of the green he could have easily had a handful more.

The most recent near-miss came at the recent Players Championship at Sawgrass where the Spaniard had the lead alongside Tiger Woods before he made a big splash at the treacherous 17th hole. Two balls plunged into a watery grave gifting the "fifth major" to Woods.

It didn't help, of course, that Sergio made Tiger his prime beneficiary. Especially after their very public spat a day earlier. Garcia accused the game's Top Cat of disturbing him mid-swing by pulling a club from his bag to excite the large galleries watching the pair during the third round. Woods denied the accusations, sniping that it was "not real surprising that he's complaining about something," before adding that he had asked the marshals if he was clear to draw after Garcia had played.

Interestingly for a media looking to stoke the fires of a feud, Woods' testimony was later flatly denied by accompanying marshal, Gary Anderson. "Tiger didn't ask us nothing, and we didn't say nothing." Anderson's boss, John North, then fanned the flames even higher. "I was disappointed to hear Tiger's remarks. He was saying what was good for him. It lacked character."

That Woods would indulge in self-serving activities shouldn't shock anyone. He's made a legendary career out of it. And wrecked a family-man profile too. Garcia may be in a different league to Woods personally. As he retorted, "I'm not the bad guy here." Yet golf isn't an exercise in ethics. Garcia had previously planned to challenge Woods professionally.

Back in the day - in the final round of the 1999 USPGA to be precise - it looked as though Sergio might be the one contender who could chase Woods into the next generation. Maybe even catch Tiger by the tail and swing him around a bit. The flamboyant wunderkind burst on to the scene at Medinah with a miraculous eyes-wide-shut recovery from the roots of a tree. El Nino even had the audacity to taunt Tiger by gesturing at him "to come catch him."

Trouble for Garcia is: Tiger did catch him. Not just at Medinah. But over and over again since in the greatest rivalry never to materialise. Even at the 2006 Open at Hoylake, a more seasoned Garcia turned up for their final-round pairing, clad in brash canary yellow. Yet the sartorial statement was as misjudged as his subsequent play, tumbling off the pace and paving the way for Tiger's 11th major championship. "I just whopped Tweetie Pie," Woods would later text his address book.

Garcia was the major omission on that contact list. And major omissions are, of course, the lone blot on Garcia's CV. While Woods quickly blazed a trail to 14, the 33-year-old has stalled on the grid. And despite 57 attempts, he remains stuck on zero with an agonizing three runner-up berths, five top-fours and 17 top-10 finishes.

For most golfers, Garcia's résumé (which features 24 wins and a 2008 Players title) is to die for. But Garcia is not most golfers. His achievements pale in comparison to the man he was expected to rival. Just as those expectations once escalated, now they are subsiding. And after his Sawgrass demise, they are back at a new low. No-one expects Sergio to get the job done.

Paradoxically, though, maybe everything will be better for having been made worse. Talent certainly isn't shackling the Spaniard. Even his dodgy putting stroke has been restored this term - he is third in the key stat of Strokes Gained on the greens - so once again there appears no obvious weakness in his game.

Sergio should also feel inspired after his good pal, Adam Scott, finally put his own spell of major irritation behind him at Augusta in April. Few appreciate Garcia's innate ability more than the Australian. "Sergio can win any week, any course, any venue," elaborated Scott. "His ball-striking is that good and now his putting's on." It takes one to know one.

Scott was nearly 33 when he shook the major monkey off his back. He now looks ready for more. Similarly, greats like Phil Mickelson and Ben Hogan didn't break through till their early thirties before going on the win multiple majors. Even the lesser light of Stewart Cink was 36. Heck, Todd Hamilton was 38.

So, at 33, Sergio still has time on his side. And he will put be back in contention soon. Perhaps even at this week's BMW Championship at Wentworth, the European Tour's own "fifth major". At least he's now put a transatlantic sea of tears between him and his tormentor Tiger. All Garcia must do is not mistake a chance to succeed as another chance to fail.

The unpredictable Spaniard has more shots and perspective than most self-involved tour pros combined. He's the golfer most caddies want to chat to in the clubhouse, but the bag none wants to carry because of his wayward attitude on the course. Which makes him such a fascinating and exciting character.

To date, Garcia's passion and charisma have all too often been bootlegged by frustration. Frustration at expectations extinguished. But endless dissatisfaction and the desire to disprove the doubters can be harnessed as a positive force. It's certainly helping Garcia get out of bed in the morning. And for that, golf should always be grateful.

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Gordon Richards Stakes: Al Kazeem makes winning return

Al Kazeem returned from a 357-day lay-off with victory in the Gordon Richards Stakes...

Last seen when winning the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket, Roger Charlton's charge travelled well throughout the 10-furlong heat in the hands of James Doyle.

Ektihaam set out to make virtually all but Al Kazeem was cruising in behind turning for home before finally making his move with a furlong to go.

Thomas Chippendale made it a three-way finish by launching his challenge down the outside and while Al Kazeem possibly felt his long absence in the dying strides, he hung on by.

Thomas Chippendale claimed a narrow second with Ektihaam third.

Al Kazeem has entries in races such as the Coronation Cup and Prince Of Wales's Stakes this term but Charlton is targeting a trip to Ireland at the end of May.

Charlton said: "I was a bit apprehensive because a lot of mine will come on for the run. He looked great and that was a good effort.

"We know he gets a mile and half, but a mile and a quarter is a more commercial distance, as long as he can win good races over that distance, but he will have entries over a mile and a half as well.

"In the immediate future, I think he will go to the Curragh for Tattersalls Gold Cup."

Doyle is expecting his mount to progress for the run and said: "Since he's come back he's been galloping great at home and doing everything right.

"We expected this today. Today is a stepping stone to bigger things and he couldn't have done it any easier.

"It was his first run for ages so I didn't want to ask him to do too much too soon and when he got to the front he pricked his ears and lugged into the rail."

Thomas Chippendale pleased connections on his return but is now set for a step up in trip.

Barry Simpson, racing manager to owner Sir Robert Ogden, said: "The best three on form were first, second and third so you'd have to say that was a very good run. I think he might step up a couple of furlongs now."

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Timeform Irish SmartPlays: Winning to make an Impact on Sunday

"Winning Impact has been given a chance by the handicapper and shaped well in this corresponding race 12 months ago..."

Timeform's Irish team suggest three bets for Sunday's action at the Curragh...

Winning Impact has been given a chance by the handicapper and shaped well in this corresponding race 12 months ago. He could make a successful return, though Maude Adams was improving when last seen and could pick up where she left off, while both Greatest and Teoranta may have more to offer. The selection won a seven furlong handicap here last summer and has put up largely creditable efforts thereafter. He has been given a chance by the handicapper and seems sure to go well.

Parish Hall landed the Dewhurst when last seen 18 months ago and can make a winning return to action over a trip which promises to suit. Ernest Hemingway, trained by Aidan O'Brien, could be the one for the forecast. Parish Hall's juvenile campaign culminated in that half-length defeat of Power in the Dewhurst, but he missed 2012 due to injury. This trip ought to be right up his street and he is the class act at this level.

Something Graceful is on a fair mark and has hinted that this trip might bring about some improvement, so is selected for the in-form Jim Bolger yard. Beach of Falesa is in a similar mould, and is feared, while support for the lightly-raced Chill would look significant. The selection stuck on well to win 20-runner Leopardstown maiden, over a mile and a quarter, in August and got back to form when third over inadequate 1m at Dundalk in December. Her yard is in form, and she promises to be suited by this trip.

Timeform Irish SmartPlays:
All at the Curragh
Back Winning Impact @ 9.617/2 in the 15:50
Back Parish Hall @ 2.68/5 in the 16:20
Back Something Graceful @ 6.611/2 in the 16:50

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London Mayor Betting: Never mind politics. Boris is winning this personality contest

Big-hitters eyeing up 1.241/4 about Boris would do well to remember David Miliband being turned over for the Labour leadership, not to mention huge-priced upsets in by-elections and US primaries.

With less than a fortnight until London's mayoral election, the government is in disarray, says Paul Krishnamurty. And yet Boris Johnson defies political gravity with a healthy lead over Ken Livingstone in the polls. Is there anyway back for the Labour candidate?

Whether it's increasingly unpopular public service cuts, Cabinet-inspired panic at the petrol pumps or any number of complaints about George Osborne's 'millionaires' budget', the government lurches from one disaster to another. The Conservative Party's national poll rating is in steep decline, trailing Labour by up to 13 points in last week's surveys. Surely then, there couldn't be a better time to unseat a Tory Mayor?

After all, London has long been considered a Labour city and when respondents were asked about voting for the Greater London Assembly, Ed Miliband's party recorded another healthy ten point lead. Yet when it comes to the contest that will dominate the headlines, Boris Johnson continues to defy political gravity, consistently polling http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/5197 around six percent ahead of his predecessor Ken Livingstone after second preferences have been re-allocated.

Love or hate him, it is increasingly hard to avoid the conclusion that Livingstone was the wrong choice to be Labour candidate. Indeed, the fact Ken prompts extreme, passionate opinions on either side is part of the problem. From the challenger's perspective, any election should be about the incumbent's record - which, in Boris' case, has struggled to withstand scrutiny in numerous debates. Yet rather than rising tube fares, falling police numbers or Boris' lack of leadership during the London riots, the biggest topic under discussion has been Ken's tax rate.

Such sustained attacks on Livingstone's character, given a platform in Tory-supporting newspapers or talk radio shows, are all the more lethal due to the nature of this contest. Unlike any other major UK election, the Mayoralty has always been as much about the individual as the party. Remember, when Ken was elected in 2000, he did so as an independent having quit Labour over their dodgy selection process. Whereas that would almost always be impossible in a General Election, Ken's personal popularity overwhelmed the official Labour candidate Frank Dobson. Back then, he was billed as the outspoken maverick, a brand long since assumed by Boris, leaving Ken trying to escape being defined as 'yesterday's man'.

Successful political comebacks are rare, especially in a cynical era when a candidate's mistakes or weaknesses attract vast amounts of coverage compared to their strengths. As a consequence of the emnities made during a long political career, Ken is struggling to marshall his own natural supporters. Labour peer Lord Sugar's attacks on Twitter were a hammer blow to the campaign, while other party figures have flocked to independent Siobhan Benita. In such a close contest, neither man can afford to lose their own party's core supporters but while the Tory vote is splintering nationally, UKIP are nowhere to be seen in the capital.

Nevertheless, the race is not over yet. Recent political history is littered with late turnarounds and upsets. Big-hitters eyeing up 1.241/4 about Boris would do well to remember David Miliband being turned over for the Labour leadership at similarly short quotes, not to mention various huge-priced upsets in by-elections and US primaries.

Indeed, Ken supporters may take strange solace from their own party's recent shock defeat in Bradford West. Then, George Galloway utilized social media to maximise turnout, catching out pollsters who'd banked on the old rules where young and minority voters fail to turn up at the polls. Livingstone's campaign has a similar grassroots feel to it and for this election, Galloway and Respect party leader Salma Yaqoob are firmly in his corner. If it can be heard above the trivia, Ken's message of cutting tube fares, rents and restoring the EMA has dynamite potential on the doorstep, particularly among young, normally apathetic voters.

Last but not least, there's still time to turn around a six percent deficit. Eleven days is a long time in politics, especially in a tight election where the main protagonists fail to inspire. Just ask Nick Clegg.

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Josh's winning return?

Recommended Bets
Back Josh's Dreamway @ 4.03/1 in the 15:30 at Stratford
Back Marju King @ 16.015/1 in the 16:30 at Stratford

David Cleary serves up a pair of Sunday afternoon bets as he heads to Stratford for the jumps action...

After a week of high-quality action on the Flat and over jumps, today's fare in Britain has rather a low-key look to it, with Stratford and Wincanton staging some run-of-the-mill if quite competitive action over jumps.

The best bet of the day looks to be at Stratford, where Josh's Dreamway ought to get back to winning ways in the mares hurdle at 15:30. She probably found the ground a touch firm at Newbury last time but ran creditably from out of the handicap in the well-contested Mares Final, while on her previous start she hacked up at Exeter from a rival who's run well since. Conditions should be ideal for Josh's Dreamway and she's a confident selection.

More speculative is Marju King in the novices handicap hurdle there at 16:30. He is fitted with a tongue strap first time after finding little at Towcester earlier in the month. He traded odds on in running before fading that day and is on a good mark, while this sharp track ought to suit him much better than Towcester's stiff climb. This is quite competitive, and if there is money for Catch Tammy, who is very hard to assess, it should be noted, but Marju King has a better chance than his double-figure price suggests.

Recommended Bets
Back Josh's Dreamway @ 4.03/1 in the 15:30 at Stratford
Back Marju King @ 16.015/1 in the 16:30 at Stratford

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Winning debut for new tipster?

Timeform Radio Tip / Editor / 18 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Valrene separate herself from the pack with a win?

"Valrene has been sent off at massive odds in all four of her starts, and is getting progressively bigger 66/1, 100/1, 100/1 and 250/1. She will be much shorter today in a really poor race and has been solid in early trading on Betfair."

New Timeform Radio signing John O'Connell makes the picks today - will it be a winning debut? We'll find out after the 15:45 at Newton Abbot

It's a day of few firm betting propositions but the one that stands out for me is Valrene in the 15:45 at Newton Abbot.

She gets a good Timeform Rating (122) in the context of the race and with a question mark, or more appropriately a squiggle, against the top-rated Accordingtoeileen, who has something to prove after pulling up at Uttoxeter last time out, the road could be left clear for the six-year-old Valrene to gain a first success.

She has been sent off at massive odds in all four of her starts, and is getting progressively bigger 66/1, 100/1, 100/1 and 250/1. She will be much shorter today in a really poor race and has been solid in early trading on Betfair.

In fact, she belied her 250/1 starting price at Huntingdon last time with a creditable third to Sonoran Sands and the step-up in trip here is likely to be more in her favour. She only got third close home at Huntingdon and was staying on to good effect in that 2m 100y contest.

Recommended Bet
Back Valrene @ [2.72] in the 15:45 at Newton Abbot

David Cleary looks at Uttoxeter's Midlands Grand National card for today's best bets...

It's the biggest day of the jumps racing calendar as the Cheltenham Festival reaches its climax on Friday afternoon. Can Rory land his Yankee?...

It's day three of the Festival and Rory Delargy is continuing his bid to land a lucrative, four leg Betfair multiple......

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Indian Wells Tips: Nadal to extend winning record against Fed

Events / Sean Calvert / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

The outdoor courts favour Nad

"I made Rafa my outright selection for this event on the basis that conditions here suit his game and despite Federer’s more impressive performance in the previous round, I see no reason to switch allegiances in this tournament now."

It's men's semi-final day at the BNP Paribas Open with the headline act being another instalment of Nadal v Federer and Sean Calvert is backing the Spaniard to extend his good record against the Swiss master

It was a tale of two Argentines on Friday at the BNP Paribas Open.

My recommended bet resulted in a disappointing loss for Juan Martin Del Potro, but those who were on my advice of backing David Nalbandian to take the opening set against Rafa Nadal were rewarded with a [4.6] winner.

Saturday is men's semi-final day at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden and first up at around 6pm UK time is Novak Djokovic v John Isner with the world number one priced up at around [1.13] to advance to the final.

This will be the third meeting between the pair, with Djokovic holding a 2-0 lead so far in their series, but they haven't played each other since 2010.

Djokovic looks like he's just coming into form at the right time in this event after a sluggish start, while Isner should have no shortage of confidence after making his second successive Masters 1000 semi.

He also comes into this match with additional self belief after recording his first win over a top four player when he defeated Roger Federer in the Davis Cup recently, so he'll have the right mindset when he steps on court tonight.

I can't see it being quite enough against Djokovic, but the big man should be able to take the match over the 20.5 total games mark if he serves well, which he'll have to against arguably the best returner in men's tennis at the moment.

Nole should have too much variety and a little extra class in this one, but my bet would be the overs at around [1.8].

The second semi final will be part 28 of the Federer v Nadal series, with Rafa holding an 18-9 advantage in competitive matches against the Swiss maestro.

This will be their first ever meeting at Indian Wells and Rafa is priced up at around [1.75] for the win, which is pretty reasonable considering that he's won four of their last five competitive matches and hasn't lost to Federer on an outdoor hard court since Miami in 2005.

Indeed, Rafa leads their series on outdoor hard courts by 5-1 in competitive matches and 7-1 overall, so on the face of it the Spaniard looks a pretty good bet at the current price.

An interesting wager in this match could be the 'second set winner' market, as Rafa has won the second set in eight of their last nine matches in all competitions. If you can get around [1.8] that could be worth an investment.

I made Rafa my outright selection for this event on the basis that conditions here suit his game and despite Federer's more impressive performance in the previous round, I see no reason to switch allegiances in this tournament now.

Del Potro was hugely disappointing yesterday against Fed and admitted to mentally checking out after a bad call cost him the chance to break in the first game of the match, which is a shocking admission from a top-10 player.

Nadal on the other hand had to dig deep against Nalbandian and was a couple of points away from losing, which should have sharpened him up and I expect his usual tactic of wearing Federer's backhand down until it breaks will be victorious again tonight eventually.

Recommended Bet
Back Nadal to beat Federer at [1.75]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

Sean Calvert continues a week of tipping with a look at this intriguing quarter-final between Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer......

Big-serving John Isner and Sean's nemesis Gilles Simon go head-to-head tonight and though Isner looks the more likely winner, the better bet is that it will be a pretty long match os it's time to turn to the total games...

Sean Calvert found some winners yesterday and on a day where the favourites should mostly prevail, the best bet is the in-form Ryan Harrison. He's up against a player in Gilles Simon with a suspect record here at Indian Wells...

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Indian Wells Betting: Azarenka to keep the winning streak going

Events / Guy McCrea / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Victoria Azarenka has become mentally and physically stronger and is starting to manage her workload better

"Throughout her Australian Open title run, Azarenka exhibited emotional stability she had never shown before at the Slams – even when she got understandably nervous during her semi-final win over defending champion Kim Clijsters."

She's the Australian Open champion, the new World Number One and is on an unbeaten run spanning 17 matches. But what is it that's all of a sudden clicked in Victoria Azarenka's game that's made her the one to beat, asks Guy McCrea.

Seventeen straight match wins. Three titles, including a first Grand Slam crown at the Australian Open. World number one for the first time. It's definitely been the stuff of dreams so far in 2012 for Victoria Azarenka, currently priced around 2.98 favourite on Betfair to win the BNP Paribas Open.

Assessing Azarenka's rise, I like to think back to almost a year ago in Miami. There, Azarenka ripped through a slew of top names to lift her second Sony Ericsson Open title. Entry to the top 5 for the first time and then a maiden Grand Slam semi-final appearance at Wimbledon soon followed. Azarenka later ended her 2011 season with a runner-up finish at the year-end WTA Championships.

My point is that these first couple of months of 2012 - particularly her maiden major title in Melbourne - are simply the culmination of what was likely for some time. And thanks largely to that Grand Slam success, Azarenka already holds a greater acceptance of her status from most general tennis followers than Caroline Wozniacki ever did during her 67 week stay at the WTA summit.

For me, the key factor behind Azarenka's rise is that she is just so much more mentally strong than in the past, when she would often implode and lose matches that should have been won. Throughout her Australian Open title run, Azarenka exhibited emotional stability she had never shown before at the Slams - even when she got understandably nervous during her semi-final win over defending champion Kim Clijsters.

There have also been a couple of key changes in Azarenka's game. She has markedly improved her movement around the court and also hits her groundstrokes with much greater margin now than earlier in her career. Azarenka does still have weapons - her first serve and backhand can be extremely potent - but these changes have allowed her to fully prosper, particularly on the slow hardcourt surfaces which dominate modern professional tennis.

Add to this Azarenka's improved fitness record and you understand why she's reached the top. The Belarusian is clearly stronger and there is also evidence that she and her team are looking to better manage the demands of her playing schedule. Remember, this is a player who retired hurt from almost a third of the tournaments she played during the 2010 season.

Azarenka's withdrawal from Dubai two weeks ago is a good example. Fresh off winning the title in Doha, where she picked up an ankle knock - Azarenka decided she wasn't fit enough to go straight into playing another event the following week. In the past Azarenka's record suggests she may well have played, would have then struggled through a match or two before pulling out, having aggravated the problem.

Now fully fit again and still full of confidence, Azarenka is out to continue her winning streak at Indian Wells, one of the sport's most prestigious events. It is tough to bet against Azarenka on current form. After an opening round bye, she is unlikely to have too much trouble with Mona Barthel in their second round clash. The German is also a young woman on the rise, but she isn't good enough yet to entertain the upset. It has to be Azarenka [1.32] in straight sets.

Beyond that, it is true the world number one is still to show that she can consistently beat her good friend Caroline Wozniacki [11.5] and Petra Kvitova [5.4]. Both have had Azarenka's number in the past - not least Kvitova who beat the Belarusian three times in 2011, including at the WTA Championships final.

But far from being fearful of the prospect, I think Azarenka would fancy the challenge of playing one, or both of them should they meet in the latter stages in California. Kvitova hasn't played since reaching the Australian Open semi-finals and also hasn't proven yet that she can play her best tennis on American hardcourts. There is huge pressure too on Wozniacki, who is defending champion in Indian Wells. The Dane could crash out of the WTA top 5 for the first time since September 2009 if she can't produce another deep run in the desert.

Outside of those two, it is tough to see who else can really challenge Azarenka - especially in the absence of both Kim Clijsters and Serena Williams. Along with her sister Venus, the American has boycotted Indian Wells every year since a controversial incident back in 2001.

Maria Sharapova [7.0] is in decent form, but Azarenka thrashed the Russian in the Australian Open final and thrives in their match-up. There is also Agnieszka Radwanska [13.0] who Azarenka could meet in the quarter finals. The Pole has enjoyed an excellent past six months on the WTA, most recently winning in Dubai to crack the WTA top 5 for the first time. But tellingly, all her three losses so far in 2012 have come at the hands of Azarenka.

Who knows how long she can keep her streak going? But for the moment at least, everything points to a fourth straight WTA title of 2012 for Azarenka next weekend.

This is a tournament where handling the heat of the Californian desert is as important as serving and returning well. The rested Rafael Nadal returns for this one and with a good draw, is the man to side with, says...

Murray backers will be getting a value price about the British no.1 in today's final against Roger Federer......

It's a family affair in Dubai this week for the world number one, but Sean Calvert fancies a wager on Andy Murray at more attractive odds......

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Find Me a 100 Winner: Wind king Baddeley has winning assets

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Baddeley triumph at Doral?

"The current forecast suggests fairly strong wind speeds on all four days, which I suspect will considerably reduce the number of potential winners."

It's been a while since we saw a long odds winner at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. So what makes Paul Krishnamurty think this week's event could reverse the trend?

Recent history at Doral GC's famous 'Blue Monster' suggests this week's WGC-Cadillac Championship is anything but the ideal tournament for finding big-priced winners. Six of the last seven winners were proven major champions and as Nick Watney was another popular pick last year, it may be prudent to restrict this week's trading plan to just a single selection.

The last shock winner here was Craig Parry in 2004, who registered the sixth Australian victory at Doral since 1990, following on from Greg Norman and Steve Elkington's five titles. Given that Geoff Ogilvy later joined that list in 2008, there is clearly something Aussies like about this place, and yet another of their number looks the best value amongst this week's outsiders.

At odds of [120.00] Aaron Baddeley has plenty going for him. He made the top-15 on his first two attempts here in 2007 and 2008, and finished top-11 on his last two strokeplay starts. Baddeley's classy short game is always a big asset around this layout, where scrambling and putting have been the most pivotal stats in recent years. Furthermore, with seven professional titles, including three on the PGA Tour, usually at attractive odds, he has a win ratio that commands respect and has rewarded loyal followers.

In addition to all that, the biggest factor in Baddeley's favour is the weather forecast. One of the reasons why Aussies tend to fare well here is that, like many of their home courses, Doral is very exposed. The current forecast suggests fairly strong wind speeds on all four days, which I suspect will considerably reduce the number of potential winners. Under such circumstances, it really isn't asking that much for Badds to hit our first lay target at [15.0]. If he does, we'll quadruple the initial two unit outlay.

Recommended Bets
2u Aaron Baddeley @ [120.0]

Place order to lay 8u @ [15.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2012 Stats: +62 units

Florida golf suits some golfers more than others and this pair of selections have excelled in the Sunshine State previously, making them value picks at huge prices for Paul Krishnamurty...

It's a different format this week but the aim remains the same, to find a triple price winner. Paul Krishnamurty marks our card on the best outsiders to back at this week's Match Play event in Arizona....

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Betfair Free Friday Results: Zarkandar makes winning return at Newbury

News / Timeform / 17 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Zarkandar (centre) won the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury

"Running from a BHA mark of 151, last season's Triumph Hurdle winner looked potentially thrown-in..."

Champion Hurdle hopeful Zarkandar landed Newbury's Betfair Hurdle on Friday, whilst Long Run got back to winning ways and Sprinter Sacre enhanced his already lofty reputation...

Turning into the Newbury straight, Zarkandar did not look the most likely winner, with jockey Ruby Walsh asking the five-year-old to try and pick the leaders up. Emerging between rivals at the final flight, Zarkandar's stamina really came into evidence, and he gradually asserted his authority on the field.

Running from a BHA mark of 151, last season's Triumph Hurdle winner looked potentially thrown-in, but the dawdling early pace was unlikely to play to his strengths. Darlan, under Tony McCoy, was arguably travelling best turning for home but took a crashing fall at the third-last, hampering eventual runner-up Get Me Out of Here, with Raya Star and Sire de Grugy filling the remaining places.

Zarkandar is sure to improve for this seasonal return and can presently be backed at [7.4] for the Champion Hurdle.

The Nicky Hednerson-trained Long Run, winner of the King George and Gold Cup last season, gained his first win of the term in the Betfair Denman Chase as he beat stable mate Burton Port, returning from over a year on the sidelines, and What A Friend into second and third respectively.

Long Run had come up against a resurgent Kauto Star on his two previous starts this season, in the Betfair Chase and the King George, but with that opponent not in the line-up he managed to get back to winning ways.

Long Run heads the Gold Cup market at [3.55], whilst Burton Port, who put up an excellent performance on his return, is available at [13.0] and What A Friend at [50.0].

Sprinter Sacre, also trained by Nicky Henderson, gained his third win from as many starts over fences when easily landing the Betfair Super Saturday Chase. He had been extremely impressive in his previous starts but, up against his elders, including French Opera and Hold Fast, this was expected to be a more thorough test.

However, Barry Geraghty was motionless throughout onboard Sprinter Sacre, the six-year-old simply strengthening his position at the head of the Arkle market at [2.36].
...........
Timeform's Horses to Follow Extra Ascot Chase issue is out now and features no less than six big-race previews and an interview with Alan King.

Last week the world's highest Timeform rated sprinter Black Caviar (135+) put to rest any doubts about her handling 1400m with an emphatic victory in the G1 C F Orr Stakes at Caulfield however on Saturday she faces a new challenge....

With a big weekend of action 'Down Under', Timeform Radio brings you another international racing preview......

Long Run's connections declared themselves thoroughly satisfied after the Cheltenham Gold Cup hero continued his Festival preparations with a workmanlike victory at Newbury....

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Ivory Coast v Sudan: Tournament favourites to make winning start

African Cup Of Nations / James Eastham / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ivory Coast has some outstanding attacking talent in their squad

"Of course, all tournaments throw up upsets, but there’s no point opposing Ivory Coast because there’s no evidence that Sudan are good enough to earn a win or draw. The problem, as always with short-priced favourites, is how to make them pay."

James Eastham believes Ivory Coast will avoid any slip-ups against rank outsiders Sudan on Sunday afternoon.

Ivory Coast v Sudan, KO 16:00 GMT, Eurosport, Match Odds: Ivory Coast 1.23, Sudan 19.5, The Draw 6.6.

Even the most casual observer of African football would describe this as a mismatch. A look at the markets tells you how far apart Ivory Coast and Sudan are.

Francois Zahoui's Ivory Coast are [1.28] to win Group B, and as short as [2.74] to win the tournament. Sudan are [17.0] outsiders to win the pool, and last in the outright betting at [300.0].

They may hail from the same continent but a glance through the two squads tells you these nations inhabit different footballing worlds. Didier Drogba, Yaya Toure and Cheick Tiote are among the most high-profile members of Ivory Coast's party; in contrast, Sudan's 23-man group was drawn entirely from their domestic league, with all but four players coming from Al Hilal and Al Merreikh.

Of course, all tournaments throw up upsets, but there's no point opposing Ivory Coast because there's no evidence that Sudan are good enough to earn a win or draw. The problem, as always with short-priced favourites, is how to make them pay. The [1.23] on Ivory Coast winning in 90 minutes will be too skinny for most bettors, so I've scoured the markets for more appealing alternatives.

My favourite three selections are Ivory Coast to be leading at HT and FT ([1.71]), Ivory Coast with a -1.5&-2.0 start on the Asian handicap ([1.96]) and Ivory Coast to win to nil ([1.67]). Thirteen of 23 wins (57%) have been to nil in the first round of matches at Africa Cup of Nations tournaments dating back to 2004, but I'd make the chances of Ivory Coast winning while keeping a clean sheet here bigger because Sudan are weak opposition.

Backing Ivory Coast (whose chances of victory are analysed by Michael Lintorn here) on the Asian handicap is also a good call, as you'll make money as long as Ivory Coast win by two goals or more. Considering the attacking riches in their squad - Drogba, Seydou Doumbia, Salomon Kalou, Gervinho, Max Gradel and others - they are capable of running up a three- or four-goal winning scoreline.

Best Bet: Ivory Coast to win to nil @ [1.67]
Other Recommended Bet: Ivory Coast -1.5&-2.0 Asian handicap @ [1.96]

* James Eastham's tips for betting.betfair.com made a profit at both the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America

James Eastham expects tournament dark horses Burkina Faso to make a winning start against Angola on Sunday....

Jonathan Wilson returns with his first African Cup of Nations diary of 2012 as he weighs up the chances of two of the tournament minnows......

Tobias Gourlay expects his pre-tournament picks, the Lions of Senegal, to start as he hopes they will go on against Zambia this weekend...

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Winning at the Wynn

Articles / John Tabatabai / 09 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

It has been quite a profitable couple of days in Vegas after I chopped the "really easy" $200 rebuy tournament at the Wynn, which I mentioned in my previous blog entry, for $16,500. What made the victory all the more sweeter was the fact I chopped it up with my roommate for the trip! We were going to go out to celebrate but after a few late nights and the fact this tournament didn't finish until 0100 we just went to bed instead.

The following day, Thursday, I went shopping and impulse bought some trainers that are almost certainly going to have been returned by the time you have read this blog. They really aren't for me and I think I only bought them because I was wrapped up in the euphoria of winning a tournament. Thursday night was even more expensive after my plans for long cash session were ended prematurely by me being dragged out on what turned out to be a 12 hour session! We didn't leave Spearmint Rhinos until gone 0500 and even then we went to an after-party. I eventually got to bed just after 0900!

Needless to say Friday was a serious recovery day and I planned to take it nice and easy and chill until I was due to play in the Main Event. I was due to play on Sunday (Day 1d) but this has now been changed to Saturday (Day 1c), which means I will most likely miss going to the Palms with the rest of the Betfair Poker players. Apparently the Playboy bunnies hang out there, so that would certainly have been something to look forward to. I even had my flipcam ready to send you some video evidence of how good they really were. Never mind, I'll just have to win the "really easy" WSOP Main Event instead.

Before I go, I have rediscovered how to use Twitter so you can follow me here for chip counts and general non-insightful tweets!

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Malaysian Grand Prix: Hamilton not far from a winning formula

Formula One / Ralph Ellis / 05 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Anthony and Lewis have made their peace

"If the Australian Grand Prix was about the car – so Vettell won because his was quickest – then this week in Sepang will be much more to do with the driver."

While other stars whinge and curse, Lewis Hamilton is showing remarkable signs of maturity, says Ralph Ellis. But can he follow up his impressive performance in Australia with a win at Sepang this weekend?

I don't know about you, but I get fed up hearing about the pressure of being a superstar. People say that's why Wayne Rooney is so angry. They tell you it's why Tiger Woods can be the most surly man on a golf course. But frankly it's a lot of old nonsense.

Faced with an intrusive media, a public that wants to share every moment, and 'experts' who want to criticise your every move you can spend your time feeling resentful or you can relax, accept it's part of the price of fame and fortune, and share your life with the people who are paying your huge wages.

Encouragingly, it's a lesson that Lewis Hamilton seems to be learning. A couple of years ago you worried he was in overdrive heading towards the 'me, me, me' syndrome, but thankfully he appears to be growing up. As an example he slipped quietly into Brands Hatch at the weekend to watch younger brother Nicolas make his motor racing debut, and left little trace - apart from a lot of smiling faces.

You have to respect his enthusiasm for both his family and his sport. He had to fly 14,000 miles in between the Australian Grand Prix and Malaysia this weekend to give moral support to 19-year-old Nic, who suffers from cerebral palsy. And he hit a nice balance of not trying to hog the limelight from his kid brother, but accepting he couldn't be a recluse either and talking briefly to the media. "I am just incredibly proud. I was smiling the whole way through the race," he said.

Hamilton's enthusiasm for watching Renault Clio racing is a sign of the big moves he's made to sort his life out away from the track. He made peace with his dad while they were in the pits at Melbourne, too, and it won't do his performances any harm when he does get back behind the wheel this week.

If the Australian Grand Prix was all about the car - so Sebastian Vettell won because his was quickest - then this week in Sepang will be much more to do with the driver. Pirelli's boss Paul Hembery says the new tyres he's supplied will degrade far more quickly in the heat, so not even Sauber's rookie Mexican driver Sergio Perez, who drove Melbourne on just one change of tyres , will be able to finish in less than three pit stops. And the weather forecast says showers are probable.

Vettel's dominance - he's three wins on the bounce now including the back end of last season - means Hamilton's price has slid out to [5.9] to win in Malaysia. If he lands that he could give himself, and anybody brave enough to back him, plenty more to smile about.

Five things you might not know about Sergio Perez

1. Born January 1990 in Guadalajara, his father was a racing driver who also managed the career of Mexican Adrian Fernandez

2. He was six when he first tried go-karting and admits he cried because he was scared. Brother Antonio - now a NASCAR driver - laughed at him, as big brothers do, so he stuck with it and by the end of the day had fallen in love with driving

3. After winning karting titles in Mexico and America he moved to Germany aged 15 where he lived in a small room above a Bavarian restaurant.

4. His career has been supported by the family of Mexican Telcoms tycoon and businessman Carlos Slim, the world's richest man estimated to be worth more than 14 billion pounds

5. From a religious family, he races wearing a Jesus bracelet his grandmother gave him, and says he prays before each start "not to be safe, but to win"

James Frankland on what we know so far about the different cars ahead of the first race of the season....

You'll be able to read articles about every Grand Prix of 2011 on Betting.Betfair as well as a comprehensive, up-to-the-minute race preview when qualifying has finished. For now, here's a quick update on the latest Championship odds....

Rule changes, less durable tyres and Lewis Hamilton's battle with his ailing McLaren mean that the Formula 1 2011 season will involve all the drama and more of last year, says Ralph Ellis. That's why Sebastien Vettel is too short...

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Simon Rowlands: Official going, winning distances and longest SP

Ante-post / Simon Rowlands / 07 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

What will the going be described as on day one?

Our blogger takes a look at three of the Cheltenham Festival Specials markets available on Betfair...

With the Cheltenham Festival approaching fast, various specials markets have started springing up all over the betting industry. Some of these represent little more than 'hit and hope' jobs at this stage, but it is surprising to discover just how far a modest amount of research can take you with the others.

I decided to look at the markets for official going, winning distances and longest SP.

The following is the historical data since 2001, the year in which the meeting was cancelled due to foot and mouth:

The official going market is settled according to the official description of the majority of the ground on the hurdle course prior to the first race of the meeting. In this, it is subject to human interference in both the imperative to achieve a certain outcome ("good jumping ground") and in the possible inclination to believe that that outcome has been achieved, come what may (what might be termed the "mark your own exam paper" phenomenon).

Simon Claisse has been Clerk of The Course at Cheltenham since 2000 and Timeform, using race times as well as other information, has disagreed with his description in four of the last five years.

In other words, it matters little what the ground is, if Mr Claisse states it is "good", or more commonly "good to soft", that is what you will get paid out on. He even changed it from "good to soft" to a more credible "good" halfway through the first day of last year's meeting.

Claisse consults with famed weather forecaster John Kettley in the weeks leading up to the meeting and waters as he sees fit. Current odds of [1.42] on Betfair suggest that Claisse will achieve his goal of describing the ground for the first as "good to soft".

The state of the going - real, rather than imagined - has an impact on many other markets, not least that of winning distances. Wider modelling of margins confirms that they increase as the ground becomes softer, though more gradually than might be supposed.

Gauging the real significance of winning distances at the Cheltenham Festival has been akin to trying to herd cats over the years. Not only has the going varied, but the numbers and types of races have varied, too, as has the means by which the margins themselves are determined.

The meeting went from being a three-day one to a four-day one after the 2004 Festival, and there will be another race - making 27 in all - this year. That race is a two-and-a-half mile novice handicap chase, while the Jewson Chase becomes a non-handicap.

The final column in the spreadsheet takes into account the different means of returning winning margins prior to 2009 and adjusts those margins up to 27 races on a pro-rata basis. It is not that simple, of course, but it is some sort of a guide.

The average of this column is 102, which is close to the midpoint of both the winning distance odds market and the winning distance line market, but the median is just 92.

It seems to me as if a couple of wide-margin years recently (one of which was run on genuinely testing ground) might have skewed people's perception. There is also a tendency for people to bet "high" - to want something to happen, rather than not happen - with these markets.

A sell of the winning distance line at 100 or more and a back of winning distance odds of less than 90 lengths makes appeal unless there seems a good likelihood of conditions turning testing. It should be noted that any abandoned or voided races will be made up at 10 lengths (see rules tab), even though the average winning margin has been just under 4 lengths.

The longest SP winner market is divided into "shorter than 33/1", "longer than 50/1" and in between. Bear in mind that just one instance of a rank outsider will trump everything else, and that, in the absence of that, just one instance of an in-between winner will trump the shorter-priced category. 187 of 209 races (89.5%) have been won by "unders", 21 races (10%) by "in between" and just 1 race (0.5%) by "overs".

If you convert that into probabilities, the implication is that the true odds should, respectively, be something like: [15.0]; [1.23]; and [8.2]. In the last nine years, the in-between category has prevailed eight times and the rank outsiders once.

I am, however, very sceptical that this is representative. A better measure - one which shows the middle category to have been overperforming greatly (and probably randomly) against expectation - is likely to be the average amount of the book taken up by each category in races in which a horse's true chance has been established from the Betfair SP.

This eliminates the so-called favourite-longshot bias and produces expected figures of 93.5% unders, 5.5% in between and 1% overs. The resulting probabilities produce (by my reckoning) estimated likely odds of [1.84] in between; [4.2] overs; and [4.6] unders.

It may seem counter-intuitive, but, with the market as it is, unders looks the best bet. It could be expected to come off only about 22% of the time, and has done so not once recently, but [8.0] is too big if you believe theory and past market expectation rather than potentially misleading evidence.

Our blogger takes a look at three of the Cheltenham Festival Specials markets available on Betfair......

Timeform's Phil Turner joins Alan Dudman to discuss the Arkle, the Jewson and the RSA Chase....

Timeform's Harry Bowles joins Alan Dudman to run his eye over the four Grade 1 novice hurdles at the Festival....

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The 5 lowest winning US Masters scores

US Masters / Dan Fitch / 03 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

The only man to make it onto this list twice.

Dan Fitch looks at the lowest winning scores ever hit at the U.S. Masters.

The phrase 'under par' means to perform below average, except in the context of golf, where to finish under par is the entire point of the sport.

When it come to the Masters Tournament, there are a group of men who have excelled at the art of finishing under par. Here are the five lowest winning scores at the Masters.

Tiger Woods score of 16 under par not only saw him win the Masters, but also complete the Grand Slam, having won the US Open, British Open and PGA Championship in 2000.

Woods scored an unremarkable -2 on the first day, before moving into joint second place on the second day of the tournament by scoring a six-under 66 to put him -8. Tiger took the lead on the Saturday with a four-under 68 and repeated the feat on the final day, to finish -16, ahead of the -14 David Duval.

In last year's Masters, Phil Mickelson won the title for the third occasion with his best ever score of -16.

Mickelson got off to a flying start with a five-under score of 67 to put him in joint second place. He then scored a one-under 71 on the second day, before bouncing back with another 67 on the Saturday to leave himself -11 and one shot off the leader Lee Westwood. On the concluding day, Mickelson hit a third 67 to leave himself -16, three strokes ahead of Westwood.

Jack Nicklaus won his second US Masters title by setting a then record score of -17. The winning margin of nine strokes over the tied Arnold Palmer and Gary Player was also a record, that stood until it was beaten by Tiger Woods in 1997.

Nicklaus started quickly with a score of -5 on the first day and scored a one-under par 71 on day two. On the Saturday Nicklaus hit a brilliant -8 and added a round of -3 on the concluding Sunday, to give himself an unprecedented winning score.

The victory in 1965 was the second of a total of six that the Golden Bear won between 1963 and 1986.

Nicklaus' record lasted for eleven years, until Raymond Floyd equalled it in 1976. Floyd hit the ground running, with a score of -7 on the first day and -6 on the second, to leave him -13.

The looming shadow of Nicklaus was not far behind though, trailing by five shots on -8. Floyd kept his cool over the weekend to extend his lead with two -2 scores of 70, while Nicklaus faded away. The master-chipper eventually won the title by eight strokes over the second-placed Ben Crenshaw.

Here's Floyd hitting a hole-in-one at the Masters some 19 years later.

The joint-record held by Nicklaus and Floyd was beaten in 1997 by the then 21-year old Tiger Woods. His score of -18 also saw him break Nicklaus' record for the biggest margin of victory, with Woods finishing twelve strokes ahead of the second-placed Tom Kite.

Woods' achievement was all the more remarkable considering the poor start he made. He was +4 after the first nine holes, but fought back to finish the first 18 at -2. A six-under 66 gave Woods the lead on -8 on the second day, before a 65 on the Saturday brought him to -15.

The final day saw Woods go round in 69 to finish -18. The Masters was his first major championship and his winning margin of 12 strokes was a record for any major tournament, until he broke his own record by winning the 2000 U.S. Open by a 15-shot margin.

Dan Fitch looks at the lowest winning scores ever hit at the U.S. Masters....

On current form Tiger Woods would be a [50.0] shot for the Masters but memories of past Masters ensure he holds up as the [5.8] favourite - and that's crazy, argues Paul Krishnamurty...

The golf season enjoys a very mini break over the next fortnight so Steve focuses minds for the year to come with a quintet of bets that will be placed in 2011...

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Big fat Gypsy winning?

Timeform Radio Tip / Jeremy Grayson / 05 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jeremy is hoping for a big price winner at Wetherby today

"Finding a very solid-looking each-way proposition is the way to go, and Gypsy George is exactly that."

Lots of young hopefuls take to the racecourse for their probable final pre-Cheltenham outings this afternoon, but it's to the far older guard that Jeremy Grayson turns for two recommendations.

Dom D'Orgeval has been allowed to drift back down to a historically very low rating of 124 by the assessor ahead of his appearance in this afternoon's 3m4f handicap chase at Ffos Las (15:10), and this despite posting several placed efforts in spring 2010 that were some way ahead of his mark.

A staying-on second over 3m2.5f at Newbury last March particularly encourages in the context of this race, given Ffos Las's near-identical course configuration to the Berkshire track and today's slightly longer trip. Ground drier than that day's soft won't inconvenience, either, judged on the Listed Aintree second on good which followed that effort.

Over at Wetherby, there may be plenty tempted to lay the returning Cheltenham Foxhunter hero Baby Run in the hunter chase at 15:50 on the grounds of jockey inexperience, the race being 16-year-old Willie Twiston-Davies's first over regulation fences. However, the very stylish, mature winning rides that he gave his first two point-to-point rides at Dunthrop recently sound a note of caution against assuming he won't be up to today's task.

Finding a very solid-looking each-way proposition instead looks the way to go in this race, and Gypsy George is exactly that. Despite dabblings with extreme-distance races such as the Welsh and Midlands Nationals during the last two years, a straightforward 3m-3m1f around a left-handed course has endured as his best trip / track combination, and his 10l second to Ballabriggs at Ayr a year ago looks even better now than it did then.

Going will remain fine so long as it gets no firmer (rain is forecast), and Seanin and Graeme McPherson are in a fair run of form for a small yard at present, with two wins and two places from eight runners this last week alone.

There's a good quality card at Leopardstown in Ireland, but Musselburgh also features a couple of really interesting contests, including the Scottish Triumph Hurdle......

Timeform run the rule over the next week's racing, which starts with an all-star card at Leopardstown on Sunday and ends with another at Newbury on Saturday......

The Irish Hennessy meeting at Leopardstown is the last stepping stone before the Cheltenham Festival for many leading ante-post fancies from across the Irish Sea and the four Grade 1 events on the card all promise to be high-class renewals....

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