Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
February 2, 2014
August 19, 2012
UK Politics: Coalition carnage makes Labour better value by the day
If seats like Corby shift decisively, we are looking at a Labour majority, currently available at 2.915/8.
Paul Krishnamurty anticipates more bad news and voter dissatisfaction for the Coalition as he explains why Labour are the party to back at the next election...
It is a safe bet that Conservative HQ were expecting a poll bounce from the Olympics, yet despite three weeks of national euphoria and countless photo-ops, Labour retain their substantial lead. There may be a feelgood factor around, but increasingly few feel anything but disdain for the coalition. Forty-five percent think it should end immediately, doubtless including many Tory and Lib Dem MPs.
The problem for both parties is that it won't. Having legislated for fixed term parliaments, engineering a new General Election date is almost impossible. Nor, given dire poll ratings, is it in either party's interest to contest one until the latest possible date. Instead, they have nearly three years of divided, crisis-management government to look forward to. Both parties' grassroots and backbenchers will become ever more restless, increasing the likelihood of either David Cameron, Nick Clegg or both facing a leadership challenge.
One might assume, therefore, that Labour would be all the rage with punters, yet at 1.84/5 to win most seats next time, the market still points towards a very close contest. It may not for much longer.
Labour have led every poll since March by an average of around nine percent. Irrespective of 'mid-term blues', the mere act of coalition fundamentally altered voting patterns. Within weeks of the Lib Dems joining the Tories in government, Labour's ratings rose by around six percent. Then as now, their bounce came despite poor ratings for the leader, trust and economic competence. For at least three decades since the formation of the SDP by ex-Labour Ministers, the Lib Dems positioned themselves on the Left so, quite logically, a substantial section of their electoral base regarded any deal with the Tories as a betrayal of basic principles. These aren't voters who returned to Labour out of admiration for Ed Miliband - they did so because the 'new politics' left them with nowhere else to go.
While these changed electoral dynamics favour Labour, a constantly negative news cycle makes a Tory comeback unlikely. When it isn't George Osborne's catastrophic economic management, its rising rail fares, falling living standards, NHS privatisation or sleaze. Much of the Tory base is disillusioned over the lack of meaningful Euroscepticism. Given such a tough climate, the last thing this coalition needs is a poisonous split over House of Lords reform and boundary changes.
All of this points to more bad news and public dissatisfaction in the short-term. Expect both Cameron and Clegg to suffer a rough ride at their party conferences, whereas Miliband's party appears united. Then in November, there's the Corby by-election - the first in a Tory-held seat this parliament, for which 1.11/10 chances Labour are near-certainties if the market is correct. If they win big, expect the grim coalition narrative to worsen.
Furthermore, if the Lib Dems block the changes to constituency boundaries, the Tories' task to win most seats, let alone a majority, becomes much harder. Remember, they couldn't win a majority on these boundaries despite perfect circumstances for an opposition in 2010. If seats like Corby shift decisively, we are looking at a Labour majority, currently available at 2.915/8.
Like any bet, backing Labour does involve risk although potential pitfalls may be overstated. The Tories could theoretically reverse 20 years of electoral trends and start attracting new, younger voters from beyond their southern Home Counties heartlands, but there's zero indication. Alternatively, the conventional wisdom that Ed Miliband lacks charisma and Prime Ministerial pedigree could damage Labour. Ed's negative ratings, however, are already factored in and if anything, offer him a chance to exceed low expectations. If charisma is everything, how did Francois Hollande defy recent electoral history to beat a charismatic Conservative French President? Many Tories may be banking on a repeat of the Thatcher experience - trailing heavily mid-term before gaining a second majority in 1983. Unlike her though, Cameron has no North Sea Oil, split opposition or affordable, winnable overseas war.
Rather, the likeliest gamechanger involves a change in the Lib Dem leadership. Nick Clegg's brand is irretrievably soiled, but were Vince Cable to step into his shoes, both Labour and Conservatives might start to sweat. Vince communicates with voters unlike anyone else in Parliament. He is that rare breed - a politician who talks human, while being seen as competent and trustworthy. His elder statesman profile could contrast favourably with this relatively young generation of politicians.
Even in this scenario, however, Labour seem less likely to suffer. Whoever is leader, there are many on the Left who will never forgive the Lib Dems and there are very few competitive Lab/Lib marginals. Yet in the Con/Lib marginals that Cameron needs to have any hope of a future majority, Cable's name on the ticket could be pivotal. In short, for at least the next 12-18 months, everything points towards Labour.
Recommended Bets
Labour to win most seats at next election @ 1.84/5
Labour to win an overall majority @ 2.8815/8
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July 15, 2012
UK Politics Betting: To turn things around, Cameron must sack his hapless Chancellor
"On a personal level, the turning point for Osborne's reputation was his 'millionaires budget'. Nobody can remember a budget still being unwound and rewritten three months later."
Paul Krishnamurty is pulling no punches when it comes to his assessment of what David Cameron needs to do to stop the rot.
MPs head off on their summer holidays on Tuesday, offering Conservative and Lib Dems an opportunity to survey the wreckage formerly known as their coalition. The honeymoon period, when everything could be blamed on their inheritance from Labour, has passed and with greater scrutiny applied, David Cameron's government is lurching from one disaster to another. This week's was a massive Tory rebellion against House of Lords reform, but while that may endanger coalition stability, public discontent goes far deeper. Despite voters lacking trust in Labour's policy or leader, the opposition is now steadily polling http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ around nine points ahead and 1.9n/a favourites to win the next election.
Whether these turn out to be mid-term blues or the beginning of the end depends on Cameron's response. All PMs have the opportunity to change course and redefine their premiership, so long as they're willing to take tough decisions and justify them. Decisions don't get much tougher than sacking your closest political ally, yet Cameron's chances of winning the next election may rely upon removing his increasingly toxic and discredited Chancellor, George 'Gideon' Osborne.
A strange myth has developed in recent years, declaring Osborne to be a master strategist, the Tories' answer to Peter Mandelson. While his friend Cameron worried about 'detoxification' and other branding exercises like 'Compassionate Conservatism', Osborne managed the domestic policy agenda as Shadow Chancellor. His reputation grew during the 2007 party conference, when Osborne's dramatic commitment to cut inheritance tax wrong-footed Gordon Brown, who panicked and cancelled plans for a snap election. The wisdom of that ploy, however, was always dubious. While indeed preventing an early election that may have been lost, the inheritance tax plan proved a handicap for the Tories, reinforcing their image as the 'party of the rich'.
Likewise plenty of experts warned Osborne's radical cuts agenda amounted to economic suicide, yet the Westminster commentariat rarely applied proper scrutiny, preferring to concentrate on the political effects. There is no shortage of scrutiny now, as politicians and journalists wonder where Osborne's promised growth disappeared to and why. When even the CBI are criticising their economic policy, you know the Tories are in trouble and the public smell it. Last week's Yougov poll on the economy confirmed this downward trajectory, finding that 65% now think the coalition is doing a bad job, while 51% think cuts are hurting the economy.
On a personal level, the turning point for Osborne's reputation was his 'millionaires budget'. Nobody can remember a budget still being unwound and rewritten three months later. It smacked of incompetance, prompted something like 23 u-turns and fatally undermined the Chancellor's credibility. How could a 'master strategist' not foresee the damage caused by cutting taxes for the rich, while raising them on pensioners and pasty-eaters?
Then in a mooted attempt to 'reclaim the iniative' from Labour, Osborne politicised the Libor Scandal, accusing Labour ministers of collusion. Yet his lack of evidence, and the subsequent bitter recriminations in Parliament, bemused and appalled older, wiser Tories. Even colleague Andrea Leadsom believes he now owes Balls an apology.
There is still time for Cameron to save himself. Abandoning Osborne's economic 'Plan A' in favour of stimulus will represent a humiliating u-turn, but manageable if presented by a different face, representing a relaunch. A couple of potential replacements could be former Chancellor Ken Clarke, or 'safe pair of hands' Defence Minister Phillip Hammond. Tony Blair's allies have claimed his biggest mistake was not replacing Gordon Brown as Chancellor. Will Cameron end up suffering similar regret?
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April 23, 2012
London Mayor Betting: Never mind politics. Boris is winning this personality contest
Big-hitters eyeing up 1.241/4 about Boris would do well to remember David Miliband being turned over for the Labour leadership, not to mention huge-priced upsets in by-elections and US primaries.
With less than a fortnight until London's mayoral election, the government is in disarray, says Paul Krishnamurty. And yet Boris Johnson defies political gravity with a healthy lead over Ken Livingstone in the polls. Is there anyway back for the Labour candidate?
Whether it's increasingly unpopular public service cuts, Cabinet-inspired panic at the petrol pumps or any number of complaints about George Osborne's 'millionaires' budget', the government lurches from one disaster to another. The Conservative Party's national poll rating is in steep decline, trailing Labour by up to 13 points in last week's surveys. Surely then, there couldn't be a better time to unseat a Tory Mayor?
After all, London has long been considered a Labour city and when respondents were asked about voting for the Greater London Assembly, Ed Miliband's party recorded another healthy ten point lead. Yet when it comes to the contest that will dominate the headlines, Boris Johnson continues to defy political gravity, consistently polling http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/5197 around six percent ahead of his predecessor Ken Livingstone after second preferences have been re-allocated.
Love or hate him, it is increasingly hard to avoid the conclusion that Livingstone was the wrong choice to be Labour candidate. Indeed, the fact Ken prompts extreme, passionate opinions on either side is part of the problem. From the challenger's perspective, any election should be about the incumbent's record - which, in Boris' case, has struggled to withstand scrutiny in numerous debates. Yet rather than rising tube fares, falling police numbers or Boris' lack of leadership during the London riots, the biggest topic under discussion has been Ken's tax rate.
Such sustained attacks on Livingstone's character, given a platform in Tory-supporting newspapers or talk radio shows, are all the more lethal due to the nature of this contest. Unlike any other major UK election, the Mayoralty has always been as much about the individual as the party. Remember, when Ken was elected in 2000, he did so as an independent having quit Labour over their dodgy selection process. Whereas that would almost always be impossible in a General Election, Ken's personal popularity overwhelmed the official Labour candidate Frank Dobson. Back then, he was billed as the outspoken maverick, a brand long since assumed by Boris, leaving Ken trying to escape being defined as 'yesterday's man'.
Successful political comebacks are rare, especially in a cynical era when a candidate's mistakes or weaknesses attract vast amounts of coverage compared to their strengths. As a consequence of the emnities made during a long political career, Ken is struggling to marshall his own natural supporters. Labour peer Lord Sugar's attacks on Twitter were a hammer blow to the campaign, while other party figures have flocked to independent Siobhan Benita. In such a close contest, neither man can afford to lose their own party's core supporters but while the Tory vote is splintering nationally, UKIP are nowhere to be seen in the capital.
Nevertheless, the race is not over yet. Recent political history is littered with late turnarounds and upsets. Big-hitters eyeing up 1.241/4 about Boris would do well to remember David Miliband being turned over for the Labour leadership at similarly short quotes, not to mention various huge-priced upsets in by-elections and US primaries.
Indeed, Ken supporters may take strange solace from their own party's recent shock defeat in Bradford West. Then, George Galloway utilized social media to maximise turnout, catching out pollsters who'd banked on the old rules where young and minority voters fail to turn up at the polls. Livingstone's campaign has a similar grassroots feel to it and for this election, Galloway and Respect party leader Salma Yaqoob are firmly in his corner. If it can be heard above the trivia, Ken's message of cutting tube fares, rents and restoring the EMA has dynamite potential on the doorstep, particularly among young, normally apathetic voters.
Last but not least, there's still time to turn around a six percent deficit. Eleven days is a long time in politics, especially in a tight election where the main protagonists fail to inspire. Just ask Nick Clegg.
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March 13, 2012
US Politics: All eyes on Newt's last stand in the Deep South
US Politics 
/ Paul Krishnamurty / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Newt Gingrich
"Newt Gingrich, currently third in the delegates race with just two Southern wins to his name, has indicated that he will withdraw if suffering another bad night."
More news and views from Paul Krishnamurty as the race to become the Republican candidate reaches the Deep South.
Tuesday's Republican primaries could be a make or break night in the race to line up against President Obama in November. While [1.17] favourite Mitt Romney retains a substantial lead in delegates, these two contests in the Deep South are far from fertile territory for the man labelled a 'Massachuesetts Liberal' by his rivals.
The betting for both Alabama and Mississippi suggests a couple of genuine three-runner races, and if anyone can complete the double, they will emerge with significant momentum.
Newt Gingrich, currently third in the delegates race with just two Southern wins to his name, has indicated that he will withdraw if suffering another bad night. If so, that could be fantastic news for Rick Santorum, who won Kansas easily on Saturday and would then be in a position to dominate the anti-Romney vote. Likewise, a win for Romney in either contest would strengthen the air of inevitability about his candidacy.
The problem for both men, however, is that Gingrich increasingly looks like starting as favourite for both contests, potentially adding a further twist to this tight race. Today's polls fail to clarity the picture. The three candidates are separated by no more than four percentage points in these two states, whereas two national polls show either Romney or Santorum 4% ahead, depending which firm one wants to believe.
Paul Krishnamuty with the latest on events across the pond where the race to become the Republican candidate in the presidential elections goes on. Mitt Romney may have won Ohio but it was Rick Santorum who was the 'moral winner' of the night....
The race for the Republican nomination goes into overdrive on Tuesday - will Mitt Romney seal the deal or will Messrs Santorum, Gingrich and Paul scupper him once again? Our own Paul - Krishnamurty - explains the complex voting process and selects the best bets......
Romney now [1.27] for the Republican nomination after holding off Santorum challenge to extend lead ahead of Super Tuesday bonanza...
March 5, 2012
US Politics: How to make money betting on Super Tuesday
US Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 05 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Some of America's key political battlegrounds vote on Super Tuesday
"If Romney wins, he will have the candidacy all but sewn up. Victory for Santorum, however, could signal a reversal of momentum that transforms the race."
The race for the Republican nomination goes into overdrive on Tuesday - will Mitt Romney seal the deal or will Messrs Santorum, Gingrich and Paul scupper him once again? Our own Paul - Krishnamurty - explains the complex voting process and selects the best bets...
It may seem like the Republican nomination race has been running for an eternity, but in numerical terms at least, we're only just getting started. Of the total 2,286 delegates up for grabs, only 317 have so far been awarded from the 12 states to have voted already. Ten more states decide on Tuesday, with a further 437 delegates in play. The various distinctions between each particular contest, types of delegate and process for distributing them is extremely complicated, so it may be best to refer to this comprehensive guide from the New York Times' Nate Silver. Here's the lowdown on Tuesday's ten contests.
Total Delegates: 66
Latest odds: Romney [1.3]. Santorum [4.3]
Of the ten states voting on Super Tuesday, Ohio is undoubtably the most significant for two reasons. First, with polls showing a virtual dead-heat, this is the contest into which Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have thrown the most resources. If the former wins, he will have his party's candidacy all but sewn up. A win for Santorum, however, could signal a reversal of momentum that transforms the longer race.
Secondly, this will probably be the most important swing state in November. Ohio has picked the last ten winning Presidents, so each candidate's ability to connect with it's rural, blue-collar inhabitants is deemed a useful guide to wider electorability. Fears that Romney does no such thing keeps Republicans strategists awake at night. Nevertheless, market moves in the wake of Romney's three key victories in Arizona, Michigan and Washington must offer them some relief. Previous polls showing double-digit leads for Santorum had seen the former Pennsylvania Senator's price collapse to [1.4], but with the gap now substantially reduced, Romney is back into [1.27].
Total Delegates: 49
Latest odds: Romney [1.01]. Paul [36.0]
Events in Virginia explain why Romney seems increasingly likely to win the nomination, despite many weaknesses and significant hostility from his party's base. Whereas Romney's massively funded campaign never stopped organising after defeat in 2008, his principal rivals only recently moved into first gear. Six months ago, few thought either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich was a front-line candidate or likely to be the standard-bearer of the right. Consequently, neither got enough signatures to ensure a place on this ballot, and a state that might otherwise have proved extremely difficult for Romney is now a certain victory, with only Ron Paul in opposition.
Total Delegates: 58
Latest odds: Santorum [1.65], Romney [2.5]
This Southern state is an absolute must-win for Santorum, although again his challenge seems to be losing momentum. Romney was always expected to struggle in this ultra-Conservative part of America, and Santorum looked a shoe-in at [1.2] just a week ago when polls showed him ahead by up to 21%. The most recent numbers show that lead reduced to just 4%, forcing his odds out to [1.65].
Total Delegates: 76
Latest odds: Gingrich [1.05], Romney [16.0]
Georgia offers the most delegates of any Super Tuesday state and, as Newt Gingrich's home state, seems likely to buck recent nationwide trends. As odds of [1.05] suggest, the former Speaker is expected to clean up and earn enough delegates to justify staying in the contest. Regrouping here has been the gameplan ever since losing Florida, although Newt wasn't counting on Santorum emerging to steal his thunder as the 'anti-Romney' in the meantime. Gingrich's route to the Presidency now seems extremely convoluted, relying on neither Romney or Santorum doing enough to be declared the wider 'winner' on Super Tuesday, which might then make his own campaign seem relevant again.
Total Delegates: 43
Latest odds: Santorum [1.18], Romney [8.0], Gingrich [8.0]
If the New York Times Primary Projections are to be believed, Oklahoma is Santorum's best chance of a Super Tuesday victory, estimated at 91%. The market agrees, with [1.18] his last price matched.
Total Delegates: 27
Latest odds: Romney [1.26], Paul [5.0], Santorum [8.2]
This is one of three minor caucuses where an almost total lack of polling makes it very hard to get a clear picture. Romney won here in an otherwise poor 2008 campaign so must be expected to do so again, but there is one potential complication. Alaska is Sarah Palin's state, and as the most prominent voice in the "Anyone but Romney" faction within the Tea Party, her intervention could make a difference. On the other hand, her term as Governor was so controversial that her relevance and popularity should not be taken as a given.
Total Delegates: 32
Latest odds: Romney [1.03], Paul [26.0], Santorum 65.0]
Similarly, a lack of polling makes Idaho hard to predict. Arguably the best guide is the strength of each candidate's organisation. Santorum and Gingrich lack the resources to fight far beyond their main targets, so are unlikely to trouble Romney's super-rich campaign in this type of contest. However, Ron Paul has made targetting the caucuses his central strategy, and the advantage of his supporters' presence could potentially pull off a shock somewhere. Given that Paul won a Straw Poll in Idaho, this looks as likely as anywhere.
Total Delegates: 28
Latest odds: Romney [1.25], Santorum [6.2], Paul [8.0]
Again it's hard to get a clear picture of opinion in this state, although the fact Romney won here in 2008 should bode well for his chances. So must the endorsement of popular former Governor, Senator John Hoeven.
Total Delegates: 41
Latest odds: Romney [1.01], Santorum [65.0], Paul [65.0]
This is the state where Romney was formerly Governor, so anything other than an easy win would represent an enormous shock.
Total Delegates: 17
Latest odds: Romney [1.05], Santorum [10.0]
Likewise this neighbouring state, historically one of the America's most moderate, is safe Romney country and unlikely to offer much in the way of betting interest.
Romney now [1.27] for the Republican nomination after holding off Santorum challenge to extend lead ahead of Super Tuesday bonanza...
All the latest on the US presidential election race, including why Mitt Romney has got himself into a bit of a pickle over the past few weeks and is worth taking on at very short odds-on for the Michigan primary....
More drama from the US as social conservative candidate pulls off shock hat-trick and Romney backers get burnt. Paul Krishnamurty explains what it all means for the race and the markets......
February 26, 2012
US Politics Betting: Will money-buyers get burnt again in Michigan?
US Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 26 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Mitt Romney seems to be the Republican front runner purely because of a lack of decent opposition
"Indeed, Romney's problem remains an almost total lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy, owing his front-runner status to the weaknesses of others."
All the latest on the US presidential election race, including why Mitt Romney has got himself into a bit of a pickle over the past few weeks and is worth taking on at very short odds-on for the Michigan primary.
With the Republican race approaching what could be a decisive phase, punters will be keeping a close eye on two pivotal primaries this Tuesday, in Michigan and Arizona. Mitt Romney remains just [1.32] to win his party's nomination, and no better than [1.2] for either primary, but the market has already proved an unreliable guide. After Romney was turned over at [1.01] in Colorado, money-buying seems either very brave or very stupid.
It feels like we've been here before. Prior to the Florida contest, Romney's principal opponent gathered a head of steam and went favourite for the primary. Then, Newt Gingrich met his opponent's wall of well-financed attack-ads and after a lacklustre performance in the TV debates, Romney won comfortably. With Gingrich wounded, Rick Santorum became the new anti-Romney, delivering a devastating trio of defeats in the latest round of contests. However, Santorum's star has somewhat waned in the past week after his extreme social-conservative agenda came under the microscope. The former Pennsylvania Senator struggled in last week's CNN debate in Arizona, prompting polls to shift back towards Romney.
That may not, however, be the final story. Santorum may have more staying power than Gingrich, and critically, a more enthusiastic bedrock of support. Whereas Gingrich was always going to encounter troubles defending his chequered history, the case against Santorum is less clear-cut in electoral terms. The Republican hierachy fear Santorum's extreme views on contraception, abortion and the existence of Satan will make him a dream opponent for President Obama, but that doesn't necessarily apply to the Republican base. Santorum has out-performed polling expectations so far because the party's Christian base turned out for him. Although Romney's lead in Michigan has increased to 6%, differential turnout could reduce it. The fact this bitter race is increasingly turning off voters, hardly helps the favourite's cause.
Indeed, Romney's problem remains an almost total lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy, owing his front-runner status to the weaknesses of others. The significant anti-Romney faction has tried out one alternative after another, only to see Herman Cain, Rick Perry and then Gingrich falter under scrutiny. Even his core brand - as the candidate most likely to beat Obama - is disintegrating. Recent polls show the President comfortably ahead of all the Republican candidates, with Romney's numbers almost identical to those of Santorum. Presented with a choice between two candidates that are equally likely to lose in November, Republicans may prefer the one they agree most with, irrespective of mainstream opinion. Although he's slipped since last week's debate, a previous national head-to-head poll measuring Santorum 21% ahead of Romney, must have alarmed favourite backers.
It also alarmed Republican opinion-formers, who have started openly touting the prospect of a 'white knight' candidate. So long as the race remains divisive and likely headed for a 'brokered convention', the likes of Jeb Bush and Mitch Daniels cannot be entirely ruled out. Indeed after ABC reported a prominent Senator advocating a third President Bush, the Florida Governor was backed into just [10.5] for the nomination. Bush himself did nothing to quell the speculation by criticising the candidates for "appealing to people's fears and emotions."
Romney urgently needs a couple of resounding victories to keep the Santorum challenge at bay and dismiss this speculation. Arizona has long been regarded a 'banker' for him, but Michigan is less straightforward. Despite this being his home state, where his father was Governor, Romney's eltiist image seems a liability here. When he jokes about his wife's multiple Cadillac-ownership, it goes down about as well in austerity-hit Michigan as his $10,000 bet challenge to Rick Perry, or his lack of empathy with the poor. Even worse was his criticism of Obama's popular bailout of Detroit-based General Motors.
Santorum is hardly in touch with the average Michigan voter either, but he will at least be able to count on support from a sizeable evangelical community in the state. If the empty seats for Romney's hometown rally last week were anything to go by, he's going to have trouble getting his vote out. After what happened in Colorado, it must be worth risking a few pennies laying the favourite at very short odds-on again.
Recommended bet
Lay Mitt Romney for Michigan Primary @ [1.3]
More drama from the US as social conservative candidate pulls off shock hat-trick and Romney backers get burnt. Paul Krishnamurty explains what it all means for the race and the markets......
Republican Nomination is Romney's to lose as the market favourite bounces back from South Carolina with massive Florida victory...
Even if Mitt Romney does manage to win the Republican Party nomination, his battle with Newt Gingrich and other rivals may have irreparably damaged his chances of becoming President, says Paul Krishnamurty....
January 21, 2012
US Politics Betting: Carnage in Carolina as punters desert nominee-elect Romney
US Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Mitt Romney is no longer the favourite to win in South Carolina
"Nor are Romney's woes restricted to this single contest. An earlier victory in the opening Iowa Caucus was wiped out after a recount, with Rick Santorum declared the winner."
The last few days has seen a number of important events that have turned the race to be the Republican candidate on its head. All of which is playing into the hands of Barack Obama, says Paul Krishnamurty.
In keeping with a long history of political betting shocks, the race for the Republican nomination has been turned on it's head over recent days. When the final week of campaigning for the South Carolina Primary began, Mitt Romney was trading as low as [1.1] for both the nomination and tonight's pivotal contest. Suddenly, following a series of significant developments, he is friendless for South Carolina at [5.1] and drifting out to [1.4] for the wider contest.
The favourite's troubles began after a series of hostile ads inspired by chief rival Newt Gingrich, who had previously been on the receiving end of negative campaigning from Romney backers before the opening Iowa Caucus. As voters mulled over Romney's controversial corporate past at Bain Capital, the billionaire failed to neutralise criticism of his tax affairs. With the wind in his sails, Gingrich stepped up the pressure with two strong debate performances and polling in the Southern state was transformed. Having trailed Romney by 11 points only six days ago, the latest numbers have Gingrich ahead by 9%.
Nor are Romney's woes restricted to this single contest. An earlier victory in the opening Iowa Caucus was wiped out after a recount, with Rick Santorum declared the winner. A Gingrich victory tonight would now mean three different candidates had won the opening three races while a fourth, Ron Paul, remains a key player. Another significant development is the withdrawal of one-time favourite Rick Perry, and his subsequent endorsement of Gingrich. Perry was the one candidate with a potential donor base to rival Romney, and now their man has effectively confirmed the controversial former House Speaker as the principal anti-Romney candidate, that cash may well pour into Gingrich's coffers, therefore levelling the playing field.
However the race develops over the longer-term, it seems increasingly certain that Romney will be unable to declare an early victory and focus his attention on the later Presidential contest. Barack Obama, an eyecatching [1.83] to win a second term, must be delighted by this week's events. Punters wanting to learn in greater detail about the dynamics behind these intriguing races might gain something from checking out CNN's all-night coverage with Wolf Blitzer and a team of experts. Some of the detailed analysis frankly puts the UK media to shame.
Ahead of next Saturday's South Carolina primary, Paul Krishnamurty discusses the chances of a candidate who has been dubbed "dangerous", "revolutionary" and even "racist."...
Victory in second primray puts Romney on the path to nomination. But rivals might yet spring a surprise in South Carolina......
At odds of [1.03] to win, a Mitt Romney failure in the coming New Hampshire primary would be the mother of all politics betting shocks, so the story this week is how the front-runner's rivals fare, says Paul Krishnamurty...
June 21, 2011
Politics Betting: Miliband must pass by-election test
General Election Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment Ed Miliband needs to make the speech of his life at September's Labour Party conference
"Will the SNP's dramatic advance be sustained? If so, Britain's electoral maths will be drastically altered, and Labour's task to gain future majorities will become considerably tougher."
Labour's leader is said to be embattled but Paul Krishnamurty believes that the party remain the most likely to win the next General Election. The upcoming by-election in Inverclyde could tell us a lot though...
British politics is in a bizarre place right now. We have an increasingly unpopular government, split on many issues, repeatedly being forced to u-turn, and yet supposedly the man whose job is under the greatest threat is the leader of the opposition. Nine months into the job, Ed Miliband has taken his party's poll ratings to a nine-year high, yet has to face down plots from his own side and is written off by media pundits.
Such is the fate of being a Labour leader in opposition. We haven't seen anything like it at least since the 1980s, when Neil Kinnock had to face down his far Left despite regularly leading the polls. Then as now, such indisciplined opposition makes a difficult job all the harder, and the last thing Miliband needs right now is a by-election where Labour has everything to lose, and nothing to gain. Fair or not, changing the media narrative is never an easy task, so anything short of a resounding Labour victory in Inverclyde next Thursday is likely to result in knives being sharpened.
Doubtless some of Miliband's problems stem from last year's victory over his brother, but it was a disastrous defeat in the Scottish Parliament elections that gave his enemies ammunition. That defeat to the SNP took any shine off Labour's gains in English council elections, allowing a typically superficial commentariat to label a mixed night as a failure. Before we part with any cash on the Inverclyde outcome, or Miliband's future, we need to take a balanced look at those 'Super Thursday' results.
Without taking anything away from Alex Salmond, whose persona drove the SNP to an unprecedented victory and may yet transform British history, the nationwide results were predictable, accurately reflecting developments and polling since the last General Election. Lets rewind to that May 2010 contest. New Labour was a moribund brand. Bankrupt in both financial and philosophical terms, shorn of it's activist base, tired and divided after a long spell in government. They had already ceded Holyrood to the SNP, and if anything, the scale of defeat was better than expected.
Then British politics was turned on it's head, with a previously unthinkable coalition formed between the Tories and Lib Dems. The latter owed their electoral advances over the past decade to disaffected Labour supporters, attracted by first Charles Kennedy and then Nick Clegg's apparently left-wing platform. Given that their party originated from a 1980s alliance between the old Liberal Party and the centre-left SDP, it was no surprise to see the polls record the transfer en masse of left-wing Lib Dem voters to Labour. So when he finally took over in September, rather than inheriting Gordon Brown's 29% ratings, Miliband found himself in charge of a party in a promising high-30s polling position.
Apart from that understandable switch from Lib Dem to Labour, it is hard to see where public opinion has changed over the past 12 months, or how Miliband has affected it in either a positive or negative way. Labour remains an unpopular brand, blamed for the deficit and trailing on economic competance. Voters who switched from Labour to Conservative have yet to change their minds. Nor have the Scottish voters who supported Alex Salmond's centre-left alternative in 2006.
All of that was reflected last month. The Lib Dem vote collapsed, transferring to the SNP in Scotland, enabling Labour to gain 800 council seats in England and the Tories to pick up numerous Southern Tory/Lib Dem marginals. Labour's vote share in each region was in line with polling expectations. The results had little or no relevance to Ed Miliband's personal performance - the two stories were the Lib Dem collapse and a spectacular vote of confidence in Alex Salmond.
Labour clearly need to undergo the root and branch reforms that Miliband has set in train, but over all the national polling picture is very positive. If they are recording up to 43% at what should be their low point during this Parliament, they should take the world of beating at the next General Election when the arguments of 2010 will be old hat. Given the Tories long-term inability to advance beyond a core 37%, a return to the old two-party politics surely suits Labour better. I remain firmly of the view that [2.24] to win the next election is a fantastic bet, whoever is leader.
Scotland, however, is pivotal. The key question concerns whether the SNP's dramatic advance can be sustained in other elections. If so, Britain's electoral maths will be drastically altered, and Labour's task to gain future majorities will become considerably tougher. I'm not convinced they can. For the last two Holyrood elections, the inspirational Salmond has marshalled a strange anti-Labour tactical coalition, but when it comes to Westminster, voters tend to return to their own party.
Moreover, in order to break Labour's dominance in constituencies like Inverclyde, the SNP must improve on longstanding trends that have seen them underperform in elections for Westminster, compared to Holyrood. This phenomenon often applies to minority nationalist parties, such as the Quebec Nationalists in Canada, and can probably be explained by voters preferring a nationwide alternative when it comes to defending their interests in the capital.
Nevertheless, they do have by-election pedigree, most recently causing a massive upset in Glasgow East which put the skids under Gordon Brown's leadership. Given the media narrative, a similar upset would do the same to Ed Miliband. Winning Inverclyde, however, will be a gargantuan task for the SNP. This is rock-solid Labour territory, where they earned a 14,000 majority even in last May's disastrous poll. Granted the SNP came within 500 of victory in the equivalent Holyrood seat last month, but set against other losses elsewhere, holding on was a good result for Labour! Critically, Alex Salmond's name isn't on this ballot paper, so Labour must be the call, even at the prohibitive quote of [1.3].
The problem for Miliband is that his majority will almost certainly be substantially reduced. A lower turnout alone will hurt Labour, who always struggle to get their supporters out for minor elections. Gordon Brown probably benefitted from a personal vote in Scotland last May, whereas London-intelligentsia types like Miliband rarely connect north of the border. The likelihood is that, while victory might keep the dogs at bay for a while, Miliband's internal opponents are unlikely to disappear just yet. Ed's future, and the battle for the party's soul, will doubtless continue through to the party conference season in September, when he needs to make the speech of his life.
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