Politics Betting: Miliband must pass by-election test

General Election Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ed Miliband needs to make the speech of his life at September's Labour Party conference

"Will the SNP's dramatic advance be sustained? If so, Britain's electoral maths will be drastically altered, and Labour's task to gain future majorities will become considerably tougher."

Labour's leader is said to be embattled but Paul Krishnamurty believes that the party remain the most likely to win the next General Election. The upcoming by-election in Inverclyde could tell us a lot though...

British politics is in a bizarre place right now. We have an increasingly unpopular government, split on many issues, repeatedly being forced to u-turn, and yet supposedly the man whose job is under the greatest threat is the leader of the opposition. Nine months into the job, Ed Miliband has taken his party's poll ratings to a nine-year high, yet has to face down plots from his own side and is written off by media pundits.

Such is the fate of being a Labour leader in opposition. We haven't seen anything like it at least since the 1980s, when Neil Kinnock had to face down his far Left despite regularly leading the polls. Then as now, such indisciplined opposition makes a difficult job all the harder, and the last thing Miliband needs right now is a by-election where Labour has everything to lose, and nothing to gain. Fair or not, changing the media narrative is never an easy task, so anything short of a resounding Labour victory in Inverclyde next Thursday is likely to result in knives being sharpened.

Doubtless some of Miliband's problems stem from last year's victory over his brother, but it was a disastrous defeat in the Scottish Parliament elections that gave his enemies ammunition. That defeat to the SNP took any shine off Labour's gains in English council elections, allowing a typically superficial commentariat to label a mixed night as a failure. Before we part with any cash on the Inverclyde outcome, or Miliband's future, we need to take a balanced look at those 'Super Thursday' results.

Without taking anything away from Alex Salmond, whose persona drove the SNP to an unprecedented victory and may yet transform British history, the nationwide results were predictable, accurately reflecting developments and polling since the last General Election. Lets rewind to that May 2010 contest. New Labour was a moribund brand. Bankrupt in both financial and philosophical terms, shorn of it's activist base, tired and divided after a long spell in government. They had already ceded Holyrood to the SNP, and if anything, the scale of defeat was better than expected.

Then British politics was turned on it's head, with a previously unthinkable coalition formed between the Tories and Lib Dems. The latter owed their electoral advances over the past decade to disaffected Labour supporters, attracted by first Charles Kennedy and then Nick Clegg's apparently left-wing platform. Given that their party originated from a 1980s alliance between the old Liberal Party and the centre-left SDP, it was no surprise to see the polls record the transfer en masse of left-wing Lib Dem voters to Labour. So when he finally took over in September, rather than inheriting Gordon Brown's 29% ratings, Miliband found himself in charge of a party in a promising high-30s polling position.

Apart from that understandable switch from Lib Dem to Labour, it is hard to see where public opinion has changed over the past 12 months, or how Miliband has affected it in either a positive or negative way. Labour remains an unpopular brand, blamed for the deficit and trailing on economic competance. Voters who switched from Labour to Conservative have yet to change their minds. Nor have the Scottish voters who supported Alex Salmond's centre-left alternative in 2006.

All of that was reflected last month. The Lib Dem vote collapsed, transferring to the SNP in Scotland, enabling Labour to gain 800 council seats in England and the Tories to pick up numerous Southern Tory/Lib Dem marginals. Labour's vote share in each region was in line with polling expectations. The results had little or no relevance to Ed Miliband's personal performance - the two stories were the Lib Dem collapse and a spectacular vote of confidence in Alex Salmond.

Labour clearly need to undergo the root and branch reforms that Miliband has set in train, but over all the national polling picture is very positive. If they are recording up to 43% at what should be their low point during this Parliament, they should take the world of beating at the next General Election when the arguments of 2010 will be old hat. Given the Tories long-term inability to advance beyond a core 37%, a return to the old two-party politics surely suits Labour better. I remain firmly of the view that [2.24] to win the next election is a fantastic bet, whoever is leader.

Scotland, however, is pivotal. The key question concerns whether the SNP's dramatic advance can be sustained in other elections. If so, Britain's electoral maths will be drastically altered, and Labour's task to gain future majorities will become considerably tougher. I'm not convinced they can. For the last two Holyrood elections, the inspirational Salmond has marshalled a strange anti-Labour tactical coalition, but when it comes to Westminster, voters tend to return to their own party.

Moreover, in order to break Labour's dominance in constituencies like Inverclyde, the SNP must improve on longstanding trends that have seen them underperform in elections for Westminster, compared to Holyrood. This phenomenon often applies to minority nationalist parties, such as the Quebec Nationalists in Canada, and can probably be explained by voters preferring a nationwide alternative when it comes to defending their interests in the capital.

Nevertheless, they do have by-election pedigree, most recently causing a massive upset in Glasgow East which put the skids under Gordon Brown's leadership. Given the media narrative, a similar upset would do the same to Ed Miliband. Winning Inverclyde, however, will be a gargantuan task for the SNP. This is rock-solid Labour territory, where they earned a 14,000 majority even in last May's disastrous poll. Granted the SNP came within 500 of victory in the equivalent Holyrood seat last month, but set against other losses elsewhere, holding on was a good result for Labour! Critically, Alex Salmond's name isn't on this ballot paper, so Labour must be the call, even at the prohibitive quote of [1.3].

The problem for Miliband is that his majority will almost certainly be substantially reduced. A lower turnout alone will hurt Labour, who always struggle to get their supporters out for minor elections. Gordon Brown probably benefitted from a personal vote in Scotland last May, whereas London-intelligentsia types like Miliband rarely connect north of the border. The likelihood is that, while victory might keep the dogs at bay for a while, Miliband's internal opponents are unlikely to disappear just yet. Ed's future, and the battle for the party's soul, will doubtless continue through to the party conference season in September, when he needs to make the speech of his life.

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Labour to win Inverclyde @ [1.3]
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Barnsley-Central By-Election Betting: A time to go with your heart

UK Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 28 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

The BNP will be targetting Barnsley Central

"A low turnout looks guaranteed, and this is where the BNP come into play. They can't possibly win the seat, but achieving second place might only require 16% - the Tories and Lib Dems scored 17% each last May, on a full General Election turnout, when their national poll ratings were much higher."

A toxic mix of spending cuts and a corrupt MP has combined to give the BNP the chance of a strong by-election performance in Barnsley this week, and that presents most punters with a rare moral conundrum says Paul Krishnamurty

Anyone serious about gambling knows that golden rule number one is to never let your heart rule your head. Normally this is no problem. Only yesterday, this Arsenal fan couldn't resist backing Birmingham at value odds to win the Carling Cup. When it comes to the rather more serious business of politics, however, putting principles to one side is simply not an option.

In most cases, it wouldn't be a problem. At the last General Election, I was happy to back Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems in constituencies where they were fancied. There is a precedent, however. Back in the 2000 US Presidential Election, having read extensively about George W Bush's new brand of 'compassionate conservatism' and how it would affect America and the wider world, I opted out of backing my prediction. A good move, because looking in the mirror the next day would have been impossible.

A similar moral conundrum has been swirling around my head these last few days, in weighing up Thursday's Barnsley Central by-election. As odds of [1.01] suggest, it would be a shock of epic, unimaginable proportions for Labour to lose this seat. Which leaves one betting option, on who finishes second, and I have a horrible feeling it could go to the BNP.

Extremists thrive on dissatisfaction with the mainstream political classes. That is a sentiment increasingly widely shared, but Barnsley has better reason than most. This election is only happening because the Labour MP Eric Illsley was imprisoned for expenses fraud. Barnsley voters might well ask why Illsley retained the Labour candidacy last May, when investigations must have already begun.

But if a section of this electorate wants to protest against Labour, where are they to turn? This is a working-class Northern, Labour stronghold - exactly the type of area about to be particularly badly hit by massive cuts to their local government budget. A mining town that used to be Arthur Scargill's base, at the heart of the 1980s conflict with the Thatcher government. Most people around here would never even dream of voting Conservative, and there's never been any substantial Liberal Democrat presence either. Neither have won 20% of the vote in any of the last four General Elections, so one must assume they won't bother wasting too many resources fighting a contest that will certainly result in defeat.

A low turnout looks guaranteed, and this is where the BNP come into play. They can't possibly win the seat, but achieving second place might only require 16% - the Tories and Lib Dems scored 17% each last May, on a full General Election turnout, when their national poll ratings were much higher. In that same contest, on what was otherwise a terrible night for Nick Griffin's band of racists and convicted football hooligans, the BNP scored 8.9%. They also scored 8.6% in the neighbouring constituency, compared to less than 2% nationally. Even more worryingly, the BNP scored around 18% in Barnsley in the 2009 European Elections, on a similarly low turnout.

Such consistent (relative) electoral success in Barnsley, and indeed Yorkshire generally, leads me to conclude that they are under-estimated in the market without Labour, having been matched at up to [38.0]. I hope with every fibre of my being that they flop abysmally, but fear the Nazis might make Friday morning's headlines. Such is the paucity of their 'movement', even grabbing third place would be deemed newsworthy.

So what to do? I will be sitting it out, although I understand if other punters refuse to allow their values and political beliefs to interfere with their betting. If your conscience can cope, then the BNP represent the best value betting option without Labour. But my wider advice is for the overwhelming majority of decent Barnsley voters. Please, get out and vote on Thursday. Don't let the extremists get some cheap publicity because of apathy. If you're angry about immigration, vote for the non-racist UKIP. If you're on the Left and angry with Labour, vote Socialist, Green or an independent. Alternatively, if you genuinely think that making a bunch of racist football hooligans the political face of Barnsley is a good idea, Britain remains a free country.

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