UK Politics 
/ Paul Krishnamurty / 28 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
The BNP will be targetting Barnsley Central
"A low turnout looks guaranteed, and this is where the BNP come into play. They can't possibly win the seat, but achieving second place might only require 16% - the Tories and Lib Dems scored 17% each last May, on a full General Election turnout, when their national poll ratings were much higher."
A toxic mix of spending cuts and a corrupt MP has combined to give the BNP the chance of a strong by-election performance in Barnsley this week, and that presents most punters with a rare moral conundrum says Paul Krishnamurty
Anyone serious about gambling knows that golden rule number one is to never let your heart rule your head. Normally this is no problem. Only yesterday, this Arsenal fan couldn't resist backing Birmingham at value odds to win the Carling Cup. When it comes to the rather more serious business of politics, however, putting principles to one side is simply not an option.
In most cases, it wouldn't be a problem. At the last General Election, I was happy to back Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems in constituencies where they were fancied. There is a precedent, however. Back in the 2000 US Presidential Election, having read extensively about George W Bush's new brand of 'compassionate conservatism' and how it would affect America and the wider world, I opted out of backing my prediction. A good move, because looking in the mirror the next day would have been impossible.
A similar moral conundrum has been swirling around my head these last few days, in weighing up Thursday's Barnsley Central by-election. As odds of [1.01] suggest, it would be a shock of epic, unimaginable proportions for Labour to lose this seat. Which leaves one betting option, on who finishes second, and I have a horrible feeling it could go to the BNP.
Extremists thrive on dissatisfaction with the mainstream political classes. That is a sentiment increasingly widely shared, but Barnsley has better reason than most. This election is only happening because the Labour MP Eric Illsley was imprisoned for expenses fraud. Barnsley voters might well ask why Illsley retained the Labour candidacy last May, when investigations must have already begun.
But if a section of this electorate wants to protest against Labour, where are they to turn? This is a working-class Northern, Labour stronghold - exactly the type of area about to be particularly badly hit by massive cuts to their local government budget. A mining town that used to be Arthur Scargill's base, at the heart of the 1980s conflict with the Thatcher government. Most people around here would never even dream of voting Conservative, and there's never been any substantial Liberal Democrat presence either. Neither have won 20% of the vote in any of the last four General Elections, so one must assume they won't bother wasting too many resources fighting a contest that will certainly result in defeat.
A low turnout looks guaranteed, and this is where the BNP come into play. They can't possibly win the seat, but achieving second place might only require 16% - the Tories and Lib Dems scored 17% each last May, on a full General Election turnout, when their national poll ratings were much higher. In that same contest, on what was otherwise a terrible night for Nick Griffin's band of racists and convicted football hooligans, the BNP scored 8.9%. They also scored 8.6% in the neighbouring constituency, compared to less than 2% nationally. Even more worryingly, the BNP scored around 18% in Barnsley in the 2009 European Elections, on a similarly low turnout.
Such consistent (relative) electoral success in Barnsley, and indeed Yorkshire generally, leads me to conclude that they are under-estimated in the market without Labour, having been matched at up to [38.0]. I hope with every fibre of my being that they flop abysmally, but fear the Nazis might make Friday morning's headlines. Such is the paucity of their 'movement', even grabbing third place would be deemed newsworthy.
So what to do? I will be sitting it out, although I understand if other punters refuse to allow their values and political beliefs to interfere with their betting. If your conscience can cope, then the BNP represent the best value betting option without Labour. But my wider advice is for the overwhelming majority of decent Barnsley voters. Please, get out and vote on Thursday. Don't let the extremists get some cheap publicity because of apathy. If you're angry about immigration, vote for the non-racist UKIP. If you're on the Left and angry with Labour, vote Socialist, Green or an independent. Alternatively, if you genuinely think that making a bunch of racist football hooligans the political face of Barnsley is a good idea, Britain remains a free country.
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