If seats like Corby shift decisively, we are looking at a Labour majority, currently available at 2.915/8.
Paul Krishnamurty anticipates more bad news and voter dissatisfaction for the Coalition as he explains why Labour are the party to back at the next election...
It is a safe bet that Conservative HQ were expecting a poll bounce from the Olympics, yet despite three weeks of national euphoria and countless photo-ops, Labour retain their substantial lead. There may be a feelgood factor around, but increasingly few feel anything but disdain for the coalition. Forty-five percent think it should end immediately, doubtless including many Tory and Lib Dem MPs.
The problem for both parties is that it won't. Having legislated for fixed term parliaments, engineering a new General Election date is almost impossible. Nor, given dire poll ratings, is it in either party's interest to contest one until the latest possible date. Instead, they have nearly three years of divided, crisis-management government to look forward to. Both parties' grassroots and backbenchers will become ever more restless, increasing the likelihood of either David Cameron, Nick Clegg or both facing a leadership challenge.
One might assume, therefore, that Labour would be all the rage with punters, yet at 1.84/5 to win most seats next time, the market still points towards a very close contest. It may not for much longer.
Labour have led every poll since March by an average of around nine percent. Irrespective of 'mid-term blues', the mere act of coalition fundamentally altered voting patterns. Within weeks of the Lib Dems joining the Tories in government, Labour's ratings rose by around six percent. Then as now, their bounce came despite poor ratings for the leader, trust and economic competence. For at least three decades since the formation of the SDP by ex-Labour Ministers, the Lib Dems positioned themselves on the Left so, quite logically, a substantial section of their electoral base regarded any deal with the Tories as a betrayal of basic principles. These aren't voters who returned to Labour out of admiration for Ed Miliband - they did so because the 'new politics' left them with nowhere else to go.
While these changed electoral dynamics favour Labour, a constantly negative news cycle makes a Tory comeback unlikely. When it isn't George Osborne's catastrophic economic management, its rising rail fares, falling living standards, NHS privatisation or sleaze. Much of the Tory base is disillusioned over the lack of meaningful Euroscepticism. Given such a tough climate, the last thing this coalition needs is a poisonous split over House of Lords reform and boundary changes.
All of this points to more bad news and public dissatisfaction in the short-term. Expect both Cameron and Clegg to suffer a rough ride at their party conferences, whereas Miliband's party appears united. Then in November, there's the Corby by-election - the first in a Tory-held seat this parliament, for which 1.11/10 chances Labour are near-certainties if the market is correct. If they win big, expect the grim coalition narrative to worsen.
Furthermore, if the Lib Dems block the changes to constituency boundaries, the Tories' task to win most seats, let alone a majority, becomes much harder. Remember, they couldn't win a majority on these boundaries despite perfect circumstances for an opposition in 2010. If seats like Corby shift decisively, we are looking at a Labour majority, currently available at 2.915/8.
Like any bet, backing Labour does involve risk although potential pitfalls may be overstated. The Tories could theoretically reverse 20 years of electoral trends and start attracting new, younger voters from beyond their southern Home Counties heartlands, but there's zero indication. Alternatively, the conventional wisdom that Ed Miliband lacks charisma and Prime Ministerial pedigree could damage Labour. Ed's negative ratings, however, are already factored in and if anything, offer him a chance to exceed low expectations. If charisma is everything, how did Francois Hollande defy recent electoral history to beat a charismatic Conservative French President? Many Tories may be banking on a repeat of the Thatcher experience - trailing heavily mid-term before gaining a second majority in 1983. Unlike her though, Cameron has no North Sea Oil, split opposition or affordable, winnable overseas war.
Rather, the likeliest gamechanger involves a change in the Lib Dem leadership. Nick Clegg's brand is irretrievably soiled, but were Vince Cable to step into his shoes, both Labour and Conservatives might start to sweat. Vince communicates with voters unlike anyone else in Parliament. He is that rare breed - a politician who talks human, while being seen as competent and trustworthy. His elder statesman profile could contrast favourably with this relatively young generation of politicians.
Even in this scenario, however, Labour seem less likely to suffer. Whoever is leader, there are many on the Left who will never forgive the Lib Dems and there are very few competitive Lab/Lib marginals. Yet in the Con/Lib marginals that Cameron needs to have any hope of a future majority, Cable's name on the ticket could be pivotal. In short, for at least the next 12-18 months, everything points towards Labour.
Recommended Bets
Labour to win most seats at next election @ 1.84/5
Labour to win an overall majority @ 2.8815/8
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