"On a personal level, the turning point for Osborne's reputation was his 'millionaires budget'. Nobody can remember a budget still being unwound and rewritten three months later."
Paul Krishnamurty is pulling no punches when it comes to his assessment of what David Cameron needs to do to stop the rot.
MPs head off on their summer holidays on Tuesday, offering Conservative and Lib Dems an opportunity to survey the wreckage formerly known as their coalition. The honeymoon period, when everything could be blamed on their inheritance from Labour, has passed and with greater scrutiny applied, David Cameron's government is lurching from one disaster to another. This week's was a massive Tory rebellion against House of Lords reform, but while that may endanger coalition stability, public discontent goes far deeper. Despite voters lacking trust in Labour's policy or leader, the opposition is now steadily polling http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ around nine points ahead and 1.9n/a favourites to win the next election.
Whether these turn out to be mid-term blues or the beginning of the end depends on Cameron's response. All PMs have the opportunity to change course and redefine their premiership, so long as they're willing to take tough decisions and justify them. Decisions don't get much tougher than sacking your closest political ally, yet Cameron's chances of winning the next election may rely upon removing his increasingly toxic and discredited Chancellor, George 'Gideon' Osborne.
A strange myth has developed in recent years, declaring Osborne to be a master strategist, the Tories' answer to Peter Mandelson. While his friend Cameron worried about 'detoxification' and other branding exercises like 'Compassionate Conservatism', Osborne managed the domestic policy agenda as Shadow Chancellor. His reputation grew during the 2007 party conference, when Osborne's dramatic commitment to cut inheritance tax wrong-footed Gordon Brown, who panicked and cancelled plans for a snap election. The wisdom of that ploy, however, was always dubious. While indeed preventing an early election that may have been lost, the inheritance tax plan proved a handicap for the Tories, reinforcing their image as the 'party of the rich'.
Likewise plenty of experts warned Osborne's radical cuts agenda amounted to economic suicide, yet the Westminster commentariat rarely applied proper scrutiny, preferring to concentrate on the political effects. There is no shortage of scrutiny now, as politicians and journalists wonder where Osborne's promised growth disappeared to and why. When even the CBI are criticising their economic policy, you know the Tories are in trouble and the public smell it. Last week's Yougov poll on the economy confirmed this downward trajectory, finding that 65% now think the coalition is doing a bad job, while 51% think cuts are hurting the economy.
On a personal level, the turning point for Osborne's reputation was his 'millionaires budget'. Nobody can remember a budget still being unwound and rewritten three months later. It smacked of incompetance, prompted something like 23 u-turns and fatally undermined the Chancellor's credibility. How could a 'master strategist' not foresee the damage caused by cutting taxes for the rich, while raising them on pensioners and pasty-eaters?
Then in a mooted attempt to 'reclaim the iniative' from Labour, Osborne politicised the Libor Scandal, accusing Labour ministers of collusion. Yet his lack of evidence, and the subsequent bitter recriminations in Parliament, bemused and appalled older, wiser Tories. Even colleague Andrea Leadsom believes he now owes Balls an apology.
There is still time for Cameron to save himself. Abandoning Osborne's economic 'Plan A' in favour of stimulus will represent a humiliating u-turn, but manageable if presented by a different face, representing a relaunch. A couple of potential replacements could be former Chancellor Ken Clarke, or 'safe pair of hands' Defence Minister Phillip Hammond. Tony Blair's allies have claimed his biggest mistake was not replacing Gordon Brown as Chancellor. Will Cameron end up suffering similar regret?
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