German Football 
/ Soccer Widow / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Underperformers. Neither Franck Ribery nor Arjen Robben have been at their best this season.
"Of its last 25 Bundesliga away games, Bayern has won only 40% and this season alone is not much better at only a 45% win ratio. Whoever identified this trend early and decided to lay Bayern away from home on a regular basis, has definitely cashed in."
Soccer Widow explains why the stats suggest Bayern Munich carry on being a false price on their travels and why their layers have been having one field day after another. This is a big match right here and it's thrown up another false price on a Bayern clean sheet.
Although Bayern goes into this match looking for its 900th victory in Bundesliga 1, the German press continues to produce copious amounts of copy analysing the Bavarian team's so called 'away curse', which has seen the team's performances on the road deteriorate significantly.
Of its last 25 Bundesliga away games, Bayern has won only 40% and this season alone is not much better at only a 45% win ratio. Whoever identified this trend early and decided to lay Bayern away from home on a regular basis, has definitely cashed in, especially as Bayern's reputation usually sees its odds in away matches vastly under-priced and, therefore, a very attractive lay proposition.
Bayern's season has been blighted with behind-the-scenes turmoil, a change of manager, and injuries to key players, with midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger again missing for Saturday's match. When he plays, Bayern looks composed, but when he is absent, there is definite fragility in the team.
For all of their apparent shortcomings, Bayern do sit in 2nd place in the league table and will play a newly resurgent Leverkusen team up to the lofty heights of 5th, following back-to-back victories. The talking point of this match is of course the fact that Bayern's new manager, Jupp Heynckes, was tempted away from Leverkusen but this should have no real effect on the usual ice-cold mentality of German teams in general and their mature and professional attitude towards big occasions.
Statistics related to the final value bet recommendations:
Head-to-Head (Leverkusen home, Bayern Munich away, 14 matches since 1998, in all competitions):
•Full time: four Leverkusen wins (28.6%); three draws (21.4%); seven Bayern wins (50%)
•Full time: last six results (most recent first): D-D-H-A-A-A
•Bayern Munich Clean Sheet: twice (21.4%)
•Over 1.5 Goals: 12 times (85.7%)
•Goal numbers in the last six of these fixtures (most recent first): 2-2-6-2-1-5
Bayer Leverkusen's last 25 Bundesliga 1 home games:
•Full time: 13 wins (52%); seven draws (28%); five defeats (20%)
•Full time: last six results (most recent first): H-D-H-A-H-D
•Away team clean sheet: four times (16%)
•Over 1.5 Goals: 21 times (84%)
•Goal numbers in the last six home matches (most recent first): 5-4-5-3-2-4
Bayern Munich's last 25 Bundesliga 1 away games:
•Full time: 10 wins (40%); nine draws (36%); six defeats (24%)
•Full time: last six results (most recent first): D-D-H-A-H-A
•Bayern Munich clean sheet: six times (24%)
•Over 1.5 Goals: 21 times (84%)
•Goal numbers in the last six matches (most recent first): 0-2-4-3-5-3
Summary:
Although Bayern have not lost to Leverkusen in their last 14 Bundesliga encounters (comprising 11 wins and three draws), Leverkusen's last victory against Germany's most celebrated team was not so long ago. In March 2009, Bayern lost 2:4 to Leverkusen in the DFB-Pokal quarter final in Düsseldorf. Taking the head-to-head performance as well as the last 25 matches into consideration, statistically speaking, Leverkusen's chances of winning this match are not so bad and, the price of the home win holds a mathematical advantage or 'edge'.
How the market arrived at odds of [3.05] for laying 'Bayern Clean Sheet' is a mystery to me as the statistics show Leverkusen is not short of goals at home and Bayern is always vulnerable to concede away from home. The market odds are therefore around 58% below their mathematical value, which represents a great lay bet.
Other Betting recommendations with good value:
•Back Leverkusen to win (odds: [5.0], 'true odds': 3.0, value 40%, probability: 33.3%)
•Back 'Over 1.5 Goals' (odds: [1.28], true odds: 1.18, value 50%, probability: 85%)
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