The Big Wednesday Multiple: Barcelona to kick off a 7/1 shot

"Back Barcelona @ 1.36 (4/11);

Back Brentford @ 2.05 (21/20);

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Partick v Morton @ 1.72 (8/11);

Back Under 2.5 Goals in Real Garcilaso v Cerro Porteno @ 1.66 (4/6);

The Multiple pays approximately 8.05 (7/1)"

It's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections: 

Bet 1: Barcelona (HOME) @ 1.36 (4/11) - Sky Sports Two at 19:45

Barcelona will likely be without Lionel Messi, at least from the start, for their Champions League quarter-final second leg against PSG but I'm more than confident that they will get the win and progress to the last four.

The match in Paris finished 2-2 last week but the 2011 winners dominated large portions of that game and it took a late goal to deny them victory. Lionel Messi went off injured at half time and while he has trained with the squad, it is highly likely that he will be on the bench at best for Barca. 

In any event, Cesc Fabregas played the false nine role against Mallorca on Saturday and he scored three and set another up. With the likes of David Villa and Andres Iniesta in the team, Barcelona have more than enough firepower to continue their incredible home record in the Champions League.

PSG have done well to reach the last eight given that it's their first appearance in Europe's elite club competition since 2004. They have of course spent plenty of money, but then so did Manchester City and they have gone out in the group phase for two years straight.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic is the key man and while he will want to shoot down his former side, I just don't think the midfield will be able to cope with that of their opponents, especially as Blaise Matuidi is suspended. 

Bet 2: Brentford (AWAY) @ 2.05 (21/20)  

Our away win comes from slightly less glamorous surroundings as promotion chasing Brentford travel to Crewe, knowing that three points will take them into third place and within striking distance of the top two.

The Bees have been buzzing this season under the stewardship of Uwe Rosler. The German has got a fantastic chance of leading them into the Championship as if they win their games in hand, they will be in second position, just a single point off Doncaster who are top.

They need to put a couple of poor results behind them though - a loss at MK Dons and then a draw at Coventry. They have been much stronger at home and their recent away stats haven't been that great, however I think that now we're at the business end of the campaign, their class and will to win will shine through.

A further reason why I think that they will take all three points tonight is that Crewe lifted the Johnstone's Paint Trophy at Wembley on Sunday and it will be hard for the players to get up for this clash, especially as they have little to play for in the league.

Steve Davis' men have been in decent form lately but I have my suspicions that the players were putting in that extra bit of effort to try and make the Wembley starting XI and now that it's over, they could go into 'holiday mode' something that Swansea have done since lifting the Capital One Cup.

Bet 3: Partick v Morton (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.72 (8/11)  

Our search for goals lands us in Scotland as Partick Thistle host Greenock Morton in a mouth-watering top of the table clash in the First Division.

Partick are top and they will want to stay there as only one team get promoted to the Premier Division. They have a two point cushion over tonight's opponents in second, and they have a game in hand. 

Alan Archibald has had a fantastic run since being appointed manager in January and he is yet to lose a game in the league - winning eight and drawing two. 

As far as the goals go, Thistle's fixtures have been averaging 3.07 per 90 minutes, with 19 of their 30 going over 2.5, including 12 of their 15 at Firhill Stadium.

Greenock really need to win this evening as even if they draw, it's unlikely that Partick will drop enough points in their remaining five matches to surrender first place and promotion to the top flight.

While Alan Moore's side have lost two of their last three on the road, those are their only away defeats this season, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that they can pull it off.

One thing they have in their favour is their firepower away from Cappielow Park. The Ton haven't failed to score yet this term and they have netted 13 in their last five, including four at both Airdrie and Dunfermline.

Bet 4: Real Garcilaso v Cerro Porteno (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.66 (4/6) - Betfair Live Video at 23:45

We finish with a late kick-off in Peru as Real Garcilaso host Cerro Porteno in a Copa Libertadores Group Six clash.

Real Garcilaso could really do with a win tonight as it would move them into second place, three points ahead of Deportes Tolima with just one game remaining. As that game would be away at Santa Fe, anything other than victory would leave them with a bit of a mountain to climb as you would have to assume that Tolima would beat Cerro Porteno in their final fixture.

Freddy García's should win, they are red-hot favourites to do so, but I can't see them scoring too many goals. They have netted just three times from four games in this competition this season, with two of those coming away from home. They won the reverse fixture 1-0, but it took an 88th minute winner to do so.

Cerro Porteno are the group's whipping boys as they have lost all four matches thus far. In fairness to them though, they haven't been getting thrashed and all of the defeats were by a single goal margin. 

The Paraguayan outfit have been regulars in the Libertadores over the past few years and it's interesting to note that since 2010, eight of their 12 matches away from Estadio General Pablo Rojas have gone under 2.5 goals.

Recommended Multiple
Back Barcelona @ 1.36 (4/11); Back Brentford @ 2.05 (21/20); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Partick v Morton @ 1.72 (8/11); Back Under 2.5 Goals in Real Garcilaso v Cerro Porteno @ 1.66 (4/6); The Multiple pays approximately 8.05 (7/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

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The Big Match Tactical View: Chelsea v Barcelona

The lack of width upfront could lead to a surprise in the corners market

Chelsea v Barcelona, Wednesday 7:45, ITV1.

Match odds: Chelsea 5.55/1, Barcelona 1.731/1, The Draw 4.04/1

Barcelona may be favourites for this game and even stronger favourites for the tie, but expect Pep Guardiola to give Chelsea a lot of respect with his overall strategy and approach.

Guardiola remembers the tie at Stamford Bridge three years ago, when Chelsea came within minutes of knocking out Barcelona. Much has changed since then, at both clubs, but Guardiola expects a physical, powerful performance from Roberto Di Matteo's side here.

Therefore, he is likely to beef up his midfield. Rather than play three out-and-out forwards, Lionel Messi is likely to play alongside Alexis Sanchez upfront, with a nominal midfielder - Cesc Fabregas or Andres Iniesta - the third-highest player up the pitch, and the other deeper alongside Xavi Hernandez and Sergio Busquets. Another option would be to play Seydou Keita in the centre, though he has struggled for fitness in recent weeks.

The likely lack of width upfront could lead to a surprise in the corners market - Barcelona don't win many corners away from home in big games (three and two in the two away games at Milan this year, five at Real Madrid and three at Valencia in the league) and I'll back Chelsea to win more corners at 3.13/1.

At the back, Barcelona will probably play a back four rather than the more risky back three, and the big question mark is at left-back - Carles Puyol could play out there, with Gerard Pique and Javier Mascherano in the centre. Adriano would be a more adventurous option, but Guardiola is more likely to play it safe.

Roberto Di Matteo's major selection decision is between Didier Drogba and Fernando Torres upfront. Stylistically, Torres at his peak would be handy for getting in behind the Barcelona defence - and he had a great record against them in his Atletico Madrid days - but his form is clearly a greater consideration, and Drogba seems the better option. Mascherano may be comfortable at the back these days, but he's still not particularly powerful in the air, so Drogba is a decent option against him.

Di Matteo may look to the strategy Real Madrid used in last year's Copa Del Rey final, where they concentrated on getting the ball wide, before crossing for Cristiano Ronaldo and Pepe to challenge for in the air. Guardiola might respond to the threat of Drogba by asking his centre-backs to switch around during play, and making sure his best aerial centre-back stays with Drogba regardless of which side of the pitch he is on.

In deeper positions, expect Di Matteo to play physical but mobile players. Ramires is perfect for this game, in terms of his energy and his sudden burst of pace to get past Barcelona's first press. Raul Meireles could also be important, and if there's one player that might not suit this match from the start, it's Frank Lampard - who has been used deep in midfield alongside John Obi Mikel recently. Meireles and Michael Essien might be better options. There's also a decision to make at the back - Gary Cahill will probably replace David Luiz with Branislav Ivanovic at right-back, told to defend very narrow and likely to have no direct opponent if Iniesta starts on the right.

The key for Chelsea is not necessarily how to attack, but when to attack. Any approach against Barcelona will feature a period of standing off - it's just too difficult to press them for the entire game - but Di Matteo will have to combine that with either a counter-attacking threat, which Chelsea don't particularly specialise in - certainly not when compared to the 2004/05 game when they had the pace of Damien Duff on the break.

But they can look to that game for an example of a great start. There, Chelsea had a brilliant early spell of pressure and went 3-0 up after 20 minutes, then struck again in the final 15 minutes to progress. It may be entirely coincidental, but that approach would work well here - Barcelona are often slow to get going and settle down into their rhythm, as Real Madrid have showed by successfully pressing them at the start of matches. They can also tire late on after pressing so heavily, as Arsenal showed twice at the Emirates by turning 0-2 and 0-1 into 2-2 and 2-1 with late rallies.

Barcelona have learned from the Arsenal displays, and are now tighter at the back late on. But the early pressure could work, before Barcelona's dominance becomes clear, so I'll back Barcelona to win from behind at 10.09/1.

Recommended bets:
Chelsea in Corners Match Bet at 3.13/1
Barcelona to win from behind at 10.09/1

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Messi: The figures illustrating the Barcelona number 10's greatness

Spanish Football / Michael Lintorn / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Lionel Messi has scored 48 goals this season, more than all at Zaragoza and Sporting Gijon combined

"Messi's 228 goals in only 311 appearances for Barcelona leave him seven shy of Cesar Rodriguez’s benchmark of 235."

Rather than get drawn into the indefinable debate about whether Lionel Messi was better than Joey Scoresalot for FC Quitegood in the 1960s, why not simply appreciate the Barcelona magician for how special he is? Michael Lintorn picks out some of the stats and videos that showcase his brilliance...

Barcelona

Lionel Messi is already frightening close to becoming Barcelona's all-time leading scorer in official competitions, his 228 goals in only 311 appearances for the club leaving him seven shy of Cesar Rodriguez's benchmark of 235, which was set back in the 1950s.

Having tied the previous best of 47 in 2009-10, last season he smashed Brazilian legend Ronaldo's record for the most strikes in a single campaign with 53, and he is on course to up the ante again. His Leverkusen quintet takes him to 48 this term, a figure that he didn't reach until April 12 a year ago.

The Champions League

As odds of [1.01] indicate, Messi's heroics against Leverkusen leave him almost certain to finish as the Champions League top scorer for the fourth straight season, which would be another first.

He has already equalled his 2010-11 haul of 12, a joint-Champions League era best, leaving him with up to five opportunities to break it.

German great Gerd Muller is the only other four-time chart topper but required five years to achieve the feat, and also tied at the top in two of those.

By firing five past Leverkusen, Messi also set a Champions League era record for most goals in a game, becoming the first to do it since Soren Lerby for Ajax in a 10-0 breeze past Omonia 33 years earlier. Two seasons back he became the first to score four in a knockout match at home to Arsenal.

El Clasico

If it is performances in big matches that separate the good players from the greats, then Messi's record in arguably the most high-profile match in world football is a perfect illustration of why he is held in such a high esteem.

The 24-year-old has netted 13 times against Real Madrid, a tally that makes him the second most prolific Barcelona player ever to participate in the fixture after Cesar, with just two more strikes required for him to stand alone at the top.

He also leads the way when it comes to Clasico assists with ten and remains the youngest Clasico scorer, an honour he claimed - as you do - with a hat-trick as a 19-year-old back in March 2007.

The awards

Messi has been awarded the Ballon d'Or in each of the last three years, becoming just the second player in history to be anointed the best in the world three years in a row, following in the footsteps of current UEFA president Michel Platini.

He is the only man to have been picked by his fellow professionals in the FIFPro World XI in each of the last five seasons, as well as featuring in the fan-voted UEFA Team of the Year in each of the last four too.

Are there any other laudable accomplishments absent from this list? Of course there are, so please share them in the box below...

Lionel Messi is suspended for Barcelona's game with Sporting Gijon, but it's business as usual for Tobias Gourlay - and probably for Real Madrid too...

Pep Guardiola was forced to concede that he no longer expects to top La Liga, despite an impressive victory away to Atletico Madrid......

Tobias Gourlay can find fewer reasons than usual to doubt Barcelona away from home, but he does have questions about Real Madrid's ability to deal with Rayo Vallecano's burly forwards...

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The Big Match Tactical View: Barcelona v Valencia

Spanish Football / Michael Cox / 18 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Pep Guardiola and Unai Emery have great respect for one another, and relish their strategic battles

"Jeremy Mathieu has stormed forward to great effect against Barcelona this season"

The fourth meeting between the sides this season should be yet another interesting battle between two fine tacticians, says Michael Cox.

Barcelona v Valencia, Sunday 20:00, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: Barcelona [1.29], Valencia [12.5], The Draw [6.4].

Barcelona are ten points behind Real Madrid in La Liga, and we now have to consider something new about the side - level of motivation. Never before under Pep Guardiola has there been a question about how much effort Barcelona will put into their league performances, but now the league might be put to one side. After all, they're in the final of the Copa Del Rey, and remain [2.44] favourites for the Champions League.

Guardiola has a lot of respect for Unai Emery, and the tactical battles between the two have been particularly interesting in the last couple of years. In fact, in the past two league fixtures between the clubs at the Nou Camp, Guardiola has been forced into changing things at half time having been out-thought by Emery in the first half.

There is also more recent history between the two coaches - they've already faced each other twice in 2012, in the semi-final of the Copa del Rey. Barcelona came out on top in that two-legged tie, but Valencia caused them significant problems, as they did in the league meeting at the Mestalla, which ended in a 2-2 draw.

In the meetings this season, Guardiola has favoured his 3-4-3 system, rather than the variant of 4-3-3 he's used for the majority of his time in charge of the club. That approach has had mixed success - it dominates the centre of the pitch, but can be vulnerable to quick breaks down the flanks.

Valencia have exploited that weakness very well this season, almost exclusively down the left. There, Unai Emery has long favoured playing two left-backs in tandem against Barca, with Jeremy Mathieu generally lining up ahead of Jordi Alba, with the two switching around at will. That's now a key feature of the Valencia side, and whereas the primary reason for playing it against Guardiola's side was to stop Daniel Alves being such an attacking threat, it also works well in an attacking sense. Mathieu has stormed forward to great effect against Barcelona this season, and I expect him to feature prominently here, especially if Guardiola goes 3-4-3.

But he might not. In the first game between the sides this season he used Alves high up as the right-sided attacker, but he could play at right-back in a four, with Eric Abidal being either a left-back or a left-sided centre-back accordingly. In midfield, Xavi Hernandez will have a late fitness test, while Cesc Fabregas will probably be played in the front three alongside Lionel Messi and Alexis Sanchez.

Emery has a couple of decisions to make. First, how much will Valencia press? Often they've been very energetic at the Nou Camp but tired later on, and with two fewer days' rest after the sides' respective midweek Champions League clashes, this could be a risky strategy.

Second, who should Emery play in the centre of midfield? His 4-2-3-1 means he can play an attack-minded player behind the forward, like Pablo Piatti or Jonas, but here I think he might go for a more cautious approach, and play Ever Banega with David Albelda and Tino Costa behind. Albelda often seems to get into trouble against Barcelona, so I fancy him to be shown a card at [3.0].

The midfield battle will be dominated by the home side - the question is what Barcelona can do in the final third. At times this season the influence of Fabregas has made them a little too direct, and in a match like this I think Guardiola will encourage his side to be more patient with their passing. With that in mind, combined with Valencia's tendency to tire, I'll back Draw/Barcelona in the Half Time / Full time market at [5.0].

Recommended bets:
Albelda to be booked at [3.0]
Draw / Barcelona in Half Time / Full Time at [5.0]

The slaughter at the Bernabeu has become ritual. Tobias Gourlay performs a pre-mortem autopsy on Racing Santander, the next victims of Real Madrid....

Jonathan Wilson on how the great Bela Guttman only ever stayed for three years at one club and why the best that Pep Guardiola's Barcelona side have to offer may have come and gone....

As next week's Champions League games draw the attention of Real Madrid and Barcelona, Tobias Gourlay looks at whether they will have it all their own way against some tricky opponents...

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Have we seen the best of Guardiola's Barcelona side?

Champions League / Jonathan Wilson / 16 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Pedro didn't enjoy the way things went on Saturday night in Osasuna

"Guardiola has tinkered with the shape and has brought in at least two major signings each summer, as though he is conscious of the need for constant evolution."

Jonathan Wilson on how the great Bela Guttman only ever stayed for three years at one club and why the best that Pep Guardiola's Barcelona side have to offer may have come and gone.

As the league slips further away from Barcelona, it's hard not to wonder whether perhaps we have already seen the best of them, that the 3-1 victory over Manchester United at Wembley last season will stand as their greatest moment. They remain brilliant, of course, and the 3-1 win away to Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday showed why they remain favourites for the Champions League, but their struggles in the league
(or rather, relative struggles, for in any normal league in any normal season they would be streets clear) perhaps just hints at marginal decline.

There is an irony to this, of course, and it is that Jose Mourinho is likely to win the league (Real Madrid are [1.05] to do so; Barca out to [11.0]) and still leave Real Madrid in the summer. To topple this Barca would probably be his greatest triumph, but the cost would be dreadfully high. The struggle has led him to Machiavellian tactics which even by his standards, has lost him respect and led to constant friction with his squad and with the board.

The clash of the most egotistical player in the world, Cristiano Ronaldo, the most egotistical president in the world, Florentino Perez, and the most egotistical coach in the world was never likely to end well. What is odd is that it is still likely to end in the league
title, so Mourinho can join Raddy Antic, Vicente del Bosque and Fabio Capello in being forced out of the Bernabeu having done a job that, if judged by results alone, would be deemed a success.

Of course nobody can win everything all the time, and the collection
of trophies gathered by Pep Guardiola - 13 out of 15 available since he took over - is astonishing. Miss out on the league this season and come back and win it next, and it would be ludicrous to do anything other than salute the achievement - particularly if it is accompanied by a Champions League (which they are [2.4] to win). In fact, the
weekend defeat to Osasuna could be seen as an indication that - whether consciously or not - they have given up on the league to focus on the Champions League. Giving up, of course, is itself relative - they are [1.30] to beat Valencia at home on Saturday.

But there are the words of the great Hungarian coach Bela Guttmann to consider. "The third year," he said, "is fatal." If a manager stays at a club more than that, he said, his players tend to become bored and/or complacent and opponents start to work out counter-strategies. There are occasional exceptions, especially in weaker leagues, but at the highest level, it seems to hold true that great teams last a maximum of three years.

Guttmann escaped the three-year rule by never remaining in the same place long enough for stagnation to set in. The other solution is for the manager to stay put and for the players to change, which is the strategy Sir Alex Ferguson has employed in his unprecedentedly long spell at Manchester United. A hard-core of loyalists, seemingly immune to complacency having grown up in United's youth sides, have been
supplemented by a rolling cast of signings, with anybody whose hunger dipped being culled: after United had finished second in the league and lost in the FA Cup final in 1995, for instance, Mark Hughes, Andriy Kanchelskis and Paul Ince were all offloaded.

Teams who play a hard-pressing game seem especially prone to the syndrome. Victor Maslov's Dynamo Kyiv won their third successive Soviet title in 1968, but within 18 months their form had disintegrated to the point that Maslov was sacked. Ajax won a
hat-trick of European Cups between 1971 and 1973 before Johan Cruyff's
acrimonious departure after other players voted for Piet Keizer to take over as captain. Arrigo Sacchi's AC Milan won a scudetto and two European Cups before the sheer effort, mental and physical, of maintaining the hard-pressing approach overwhelmed them.

Guardiola has tinkered with the shape and has brought in at least two major signings each summer, as though he is conscious of the need for constant evolution. The stuttering away form this season, though, suggests he has not been able to hold of Guttmann's rule. Entropy gets to us all.

James Eastham says the English visitors are the smart pick in the San Siro on Wednesday night....

James Eastham says Benfica are good enough to earn a point on Wednesday evening....

There were no surprises in tonight's two Champions League first-leg ties as both Barcelona and Lyon recorded victories......

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Opta Stats: Bayer Leverkusen v Barcelona

Champions League / Michael Lintorn / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Lionel Messi is Champions League top scorer for a fourth straight season

Both Bayer Leverkusen and Barcelona enter the first leg of their round-of-16 clash on a low after domestic defeats at the weekend - who will react best?

Barcelona scored 20 goals in this season's Champions League group stage, equalling the all-time record set by Manchester United in 1998-99.

These sides have met on six occasions in European competition, Barcelona winning the last three encounters.

The Blaugrana allowed their opponents just seven shots on target in the group stage, fewer than any other team.

Barcelona have dominated possession in all of their 44 Champions League matches under Pep Guardiola's management.

Leverkusen have only kept six clean sheets in their last 42 Champions League matches.

Barcelona could become the first away team to win more than once at the BayArena in the Champions League.

Starting with his goal in the 2009 Final, Lionel Messi has scored 27 goals in his last 28 Champions League starts, including six in five this season.

Bayer Leverkusen picked up seven points from losing positions this season in the Champions League group stage, more than any other team.

Liverpool are the last side to dump Barcelona out at the last-16 stage of the Champions League, back in the 2006-07 season.

They helped see off Manchester United in the group stage, but Wednesday's trip to Russia could be the toughest test yet this season for Benfica......

The heroes of the group stage have their work cut out prolonging their Champions League adventure away to knockout round veterans Lyon......

We've lost some big guns already in the Champions League and though the likes of Real Madrid and Barcelona undrstandably still head the market, this could provide a great chance for Arsenal to go far in this year's edition....

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Valencia v Barcelona: Visitors to recover and seal first-leg victory

/ Michael Lintorn / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

The Copa del Rey offers Barcelona's best chance of domestic silverware

"Valencia have triumphed in each of their last four two-legged ties with Barcelona, the last of which occurred in the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey four years ago."

Barcelona head to Valencia for the first leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final on the back of two rotten performances and results, but Michael Lintorn expects them to react well...

Valencia v Barcelona, Wednesday 20:00, Sky Sports 3, Match odds: Valencia [5.4], Barcelona [1.77], The Draw [3.9]

There's so much to factor into betting on this encounter, before even considering how much of an impact the two-leg scenario will have on both coach's strategising.

The case for Valencia is far stronger than for most sides facing Barcelona. They have triumphed in each of their last four two-legged ties with the Catalan giants, the last of which occurred in the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey four years ago.

In addition, Barcelona have prevailed on just two of their last eight trips to the Mestalla and their domestic away form this season falls way short of their lofty standards, Saturday's draw at struggling Villarreal marking their seventh travelling stutter.

But despite all that, you can't look at Barcelona's unusually big odds of [1.77] and not feel tempted. Their record on the road remains flawless in the cups after all, with six wins in six and AC Milan and Real Madrid among those conquered, while Valencia have won only two of their last seven games.

The decisive trend in prompting this writer to back the visitors even after the poor displays against Real Madrid and Villarreal though is that they have never gone three matches without a victory under Pep Guardiola, bouncing back on ten occasions, and by an average win margin of three goals.

Correct score

Barcelona have won all three of their Copa del Rey away fixtures by a one-goal margin however, while ten of Valencia's 11 home defeats since November 2008 have come in the same fashion.

So Guardiola's men are unlikely to recover as emphatically this time, especially as Unai Emery is fairly cautious in these games and will prioritise ensuring that his team head to the Camp Nou with progress still possible. 0-1 [[9.4]] and 1-2 [[9.2]] consequently appeal as correct score options.

Best Bet: Barcelona to win @ [1.77]
Other Recommended Bet: Barcelona to win 1-0 @ [9.4] or 2-1 @ [9.2]

Barcelona head to Valencia for the first leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final on the back of two rotten performances and results, but Michael Lintorn expects them to react well......

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

Talk that AC Milan are still scrambling for a way to sign Carlos Tevez perseveres, however while that move remains highly unlikely, there has been plenty of action in Milan on deadline day......

James Eastham expects this match to follow the form book as Group D reaches its tantalising conclusion....

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Barcelona v Real Madrid: Fabregas to help Barca to another win

Spanish Football / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Cesc Fabregas has few regrets about leaving Arsenal

"He (Fabregas) has 13 goals so far this season and six in his last six matches. He offers better value at [2.7] to score than Lionel Messi at odds-on.

Barcelona are very much in the driving seat after a 2-1 wi in the first leg but they won't be taking their feet off the gas given who they're up against. Cesc Fabregas is a good bet to score in yet another win for Pep Guardiola, says Jamie Pacheco.

You've got to feel for Jose Mourinho. However well Real Madrid play, however many goals they score, however much they entertain, it's never enough. It's never enough because whatever they do, Barcelona seem to do it a little better. Time and time again.

But maybe we shouldn't feel sorry for him. Football fans talk about singing when you're winning. When he was winning the Champions League with FC Porto, the Premier League with Chelsea and knocking the same Barcelona out of the Champions League en route to winning it with Inter Milan, there was plenty of singing. There was plenty of boasting, inventing of nicknames and goading, too. He enjoyed those moments, making himself come across as a genius who knew more than his counterparts, prepared better for games than them and motivated his players that little bit better. The problem with not winning gracefully is that you're an obvious target when you stop winning. That said, whereas he may have expected some abuse from other clubs' fans, I'm not sure he expected it from his own. Let's not forget that Real Madrid are after all still in the Champions League and still top of La Liga.

Match Odds

When we previewed this match last week, we reminded our dear reader of the cold facts. Real Madrid hadn't beaten Barcelona in their last 12 attempts. After last week's result, it's now 13.

Barcelona's price seems a bit too big. They're the ones who are on a high after last week's win and there's unlikely to be any chance of them just managing their lead and trying to settle for a draw. Firstly because Barca don't play for draws and secondly because any chance to run their rivals' noses in it is a good chance.

There's also a danger that if things don't go their way, Real's players may start to lose their discipline, something that we don't often see too much amongst Barcelona's. A sending-off is short enough at [2.4] so we won't be going for that but if there is one, it's likely to be a Real player taking an early bath and playing with ten men against Barcelona is nigh-on impossible. Either way, Barcelona are worth a bet at [1.68].

Both teams to score?

The "yes" option served us very well last week after being flagged up as the best bet of the match. The price is exactly the same ([1.68]) as it was last week but with Real having no choice but to chase the tie, our chances of the bet being landed are even better. For all their attacking prowess, it's now five straight matches that Barcelona have gone without keeping a clean sheet. We have no concerns about Barcelona not scoring (they've scored in 33 of 35 matches this season) and though it may well prove irrelevant in the context of the tie, Real should manage at least one.

To Score

Cesc Fabregas has been in outstanding goalscoring form this campaign. Any suspicions that he'd find it hard to get a game have surely been dissipated. In part that's because of his versatility which allows him to play in just about every position of the forward six in Barcelona's 4-3-3 (bar that of the central striker), in part because Barcelona play so many matches that rotation is essential rather than preferable and finally for the simple reason that he's a wonderful player. He has 13 goals so far this season and six in his last six matches. He offers better value at [2.7] to score than Lionel Messi at odds-on.

To be shown a card

We've saved the best for last. What's happened in the last few years to that kid with the wonder left foot, mummy's boy haircut and placid temperament? A few things. For starters he's turned into the best player on the planet bar none, he cut his hair when he realised supermodels don't date anyone with that bad a haircut and lastly, he's started to give a little back in the old retribution stakes. It's little wonder given the atrocities that are done to him during 90 minutes by opposition defenders but in the process Lionel Messi has picked up three bookings in his last six matches. He's likely to be provoked plenty in this game, and not just by Pepe. Look to get a price of around [3.6] on Messi being cautioned again.

Best Bet: Back Barcelona to win @ [1.68]

Recommended Bets:

Back Cesc Fabregas to score @ [2.7]
Back Lionel Messi to be shown a card at [3.6]

Dressing room bust-ups, indiscipline on the field and a viscious press are making life difficult for Jose Mourinho, says Ben Lyttleton. But the Special One's team remain top of La Liga and could well deny Barcelona a fourth consecutive title......

Tobias Gourlay previews Barcelona's trip to the Rose Garden of nouveau riche Malaga and the daunting task facing Marcelo Bielsa and Athletic Bilbao at the Bernabeu...

Pepe's vicious attack has attracted much of the attention following Barcelona's latest Clasico triumph, but Jose Mourinho isn't proving too popular either......

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La Liga Betting: Real Madrid surge clear of beaten Barcelona

Spanish Football / Michael Lintorn / 28 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Real Madrid are now six points clear and strong favourites to win La Liga

"Barcelona have a chance to do some damage limitation on Tuesday when they entertain Rayo Vallecano."

Real Madrid punished Barcelona's first loss of 2011-12, virtually guaranteeing that they will enter the first Clasico of the campaign in top spot.

How can a team who have been flawless on their Champions League travels continue to perform so ineptly on the road domestically? That question is sure to give Pep Guardiola a few restless nights after his side fell six points behind Real Madrid.

Just days after claiming a fifth successive away European victory against Italian champions AC Milan, Barcelona were felled 1-0 in the Spanish capital by lowly Getafe, who had won only two of their first dozen La Liga games.

The occasion marked the title holders' first defeat in 28 matches, but while that unbeaten run deserves plenty of credit, a loss as visitors had been on the cards, albeit appearing more likely to occur on their return to Madrid in a fortnight for the Clasico.

Guardiola's men, who haven't failed to finish first in any of his three seasons as coach, have taken just nine points from a possible 18 away from the Camp Nou, and their two triumphs were 1-0s against struggling Sporting Gijon and Grenada.

Real Madrid negotiated another potentially tricky tie earlier on Saturday with a seventh straight win over neighbours Atletico to extend a lead that on current form they will be optimistic of increasing further when they welcome their rivals.

And having emerged as favourites in the aftermath of their 3-2 success at third-placed Valencia a week ago, they are now clear frontrunners at [1.57], with Barcelona flying all the way out to [2.76].

Barca have a chance to do some damage limitation on Tuesday when they entertain Rayo Vallecano, who have only lost two of their seven away fixtures since promotion, pocketing as many points as the champions.

Victor Valdes and co haven't been breached once at home in domestic action, so it's no shock that they are [1.08] to close the gap to three points. Rayo have been defeated by more than one goal just twice though, so consider opposing Barcelona to win both halves at [1.48].

Tobias Gourlay expects Real Madrid to win the city derby with Atletico as usual, but wonders whether Barcelona will struggle on their trip to the Spanish capital...

Tobias Gourlay expects Real Madrid to increase the gap between the big two and the rest with a win at third-placed Valencia on Saturday night...

It may only be November, but this is already shaping up to be a crucial game in the race for the La Liga title...

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Martin Schleich Claims EPT Barcelona over Kostic, Katchalov

Poker News / Short-Stacked Shamus / 02 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Martin Schleich, 2011 EPT Barcelona Champion (Photo credit: PokerNews / PokerStars)

After five long days of play, Martin Schleich of Germany has bested a field of 811 to claim the Season 8 European Poker Tour Barcelona Main Event title. Schleich survived a hard-fought, 14-hour final table that finally came to an end with his elimination of the Spaniard Dragan Kostic in second. Eugene Katchalov finished third, just missing in his quest for poker's triple crown.

Katchalov entered Thursday's final table as the short stack among the final eight, but the Ukrainian quickly went to work, scoring two double-ups early on, the second resulting in the elimination of the last woman standing in the event, Isabel Baltazar of France.

First Katchalov managed to get his short stack all in with Ah-Qs versus Saar Wilf's Qc-9c and survived. Then just a few minutes later Baltazar ran her pocket queens into Katchalov's Ad-Ac to hit the rail in eighth.

That brought Katchalov back to the middle of the pack with close to 3 million chips, though there was still much ground between him and leaders Raul Mestre (Spain), Tomeu Gomila (Spain), and Wilf (Israel), all of whom were sitting in the 5-5.5 million range.

Spaniard Juan Manuel Perez was the next elimination in seventh, ousted by Gomila after the latter's 10c-10d held up versus Perez' Ad-Kh. Then Katchalov, who'd become short-stacked again, managed to score two more double-ups through Gomila and Mestre, including one in which Katchalov caught a needed three-outer on the river to survive.

In that hand -- versus Gomila -- Katchalov was all in before the flop with Ah-Jh against Gomila's As-4c. The flop came 6d-4h-8d, pairing Gomila's four, and after the 9d turn things looked especially bleak for Katchalov. But the Jc landed on the river to save him.

Then, after doubling through Mestre and winning a few more pots, Katchalov was suddenly atop the counts with six players left. Meanwhile, Wilf had slipped into short-stack status, and soon was all in with As-2d versus Katchalov who held 3d-3c. The five community cards came Jc-5c-4s-10h-2s, and Wilf was out in sixth.

That hand increased Katchalov's lead, pushing him up around 9 million chips and making his prospects for achieving that triple crown -- a WSOP bracelet, a WPT title, and an EPT title -- look very possible.

Gomila was the next to depart in fifth, losing a race with As-Kh versus Schleich's Qc-Qd. Then it was Katchalov busting yet Mestre in fourth. In that one Mestre was all in with Ad-5d versus Katchalov's Qc-10d, but by the turn Mestre was already drawing dead as Katchalov had made a queen-high straight.

The remaining three players -- Katchalov, Schleich, and Kostic -- battled for over four hours (with breaks), their stacks near even for the start of that period, then eventually Katchalov becoming the short stack.

Finally Katchalov reraised his remaining 3.3 million all in with 7s-7s and was called by Schleich who held 9s-9h. A seven flopped, but so did a nine as the first three cards came out 7d-9c-3d. The turn was the 8s and the river the 2s, and Katchalov was out in third.

That hand gave Schleich about a two-to-one advantage over Kostic with 15.5 million to Kostic's 8.775 million.

Those two fought for nearly an hour, with Kostic closing the gap then falling back again. Finally, with the blinds at 120,000/240,000, Kostic open-raised all in with Ac-7h and was called by Schleich who tabled Ah-9s. The board came Qc-5h-2c-Kc-9h, and Schleich had claimed the EPT trophy and €850,000 first prize.

The EPT's next stop will be in London at the Hilton Metropole Hotel September 30-Oct 6. After breaking records with the 811 entrants at EPT Barcelona, it will be interesting to see if the tour can top the field of 848 who played last year's EPT London Main Event where David Vamplew of Scotland won the title and £900,000.

Final Table Payouts

1st: Martin Schleich (Germany) -- €850,000
2nd: Dragan Kostic (Spain) -- €532,000
3rd: Eugene Katchalov (Ukraine) -- €315,000?
4th: Raul Mestre (Spain) -- €244,000?
5th: Tomeu Gomila (Spain) -- €185,000?
6th: Saar Wilf (Israel) -- €145,000?
7th: Juan Manuel Perez (Spain) -- €105,000
8th: Isabel Baltazar (France) -- €73,000

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Pre-season Friendly Betting: Barcelona v Bayern Munich

Betfair Live Video / Michael Lintorn / 27 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Bayern Munich beat Italian champions AC Milan on penalties to earn this tie

"The hosts are taking the tournament more seriously than their guests because it marks their final friendly action before the start of the new campaign."

There is another hugely appetising friendly that Betfair customers can watch for free on Wednesday, as Barcelona and Bayern Munich contest the Audi Cup Final...

This writer's suggestion to lay Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the Audi Cup semi-finals proved shrewd - unlike the under 2.5 goals suggestion for Barca's 2-2 draw with Internacional - but both progressed regardless with the aid of a penalty shootout.

The consequence is that the lucky supporters at the Allianz Arena get to see two giants of European football with four Champions League wins apiece collide in Wednesday night's final, with home advantage enough to render Bayern slight frontrunners to triumph in 90 minutes at [2.74].

Barcelona aren't far behind at [2.78], though it could be judged a surprise that they are outsiders at all given the dominant manner with which they saw off the [1.61] Bundesliga favourites 5-1 on aggregate when they last met in the Champions League quarter-finals in 2008-09.

Counting against Jupp Heynckes' side are poor recent results, their one 90-minute victory in four fixtures coming against fan club Red Bulls Taubenbach. The fact that Barcelona have started pre-season with draws against Hajduk Split and Internacional points to another as the best bet at [3.45].

One other thing worth noting is that the hosts are taking the tournament more seriously than their guests because it marks their final friendly action before the start of the new campaign, and they fielded effectively their strongest available team against AC Milan on Tuesday.

By contrast, Barcelona are without their Copa America stars Dani Alves, Javier Mascherano, Lionel Messi and new signing Alexis Sanchez, and despite the big-name absentees still opted for a mix of experience and youth, so if you play the "draw no bet" market, Bayern appear the sounder option.

There is no favourite when it comes to over/under 2.5 goals, with both options priced at [1.96], but overs looks more attractive as two of their last three clashes have filled that criteria. It is [1.63] that both sides score in this match, which Betfair customers can watch through the Live Video service.

Best Bet: The draw @ [3.45]
Other Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ [1.96]

Few pre-season games attract 74,244 fans but this meeting of capital clubs from Germany and Spain is a rare exception that you can watch live on Betfair......

Barcelona are not as certain of victory over South American giants Internacional in the semi-finals of the Audi Cup as their odds suggest, says Michael Lintorn....

One of the most enticing friendlies of the summer is available for Betfair customers to watch on Tuesday afternoon as Valencia and PSV meet in the Karnten Cup....

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Ultimate Barcelona Manchester United line-up revealed

Champions League / Dan Thomas / 27 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Lionel Messi was picked by 98% of the 20,000 people who picked their Europe's Ultimate XI

"As sponsors to both finalists, we are delighted to announce a team that pays tribute to the incredible performances of both clubs this season.”

Lionel Messi was named in a whopping 98% of teams as football fans around the world voted on the best hybrid line-up of FC Barcelona and Manchester United players, ahead of the Champions League Final between the two clubs.

Through the specially-created Europe's Ultimate XI microsite, more than 20,000 punters answered the call from Betfair, who sponsor both clubs, to select their dream starting XI from both finalists.

And the process has produced a mouth-watering team worth an estimated £1 billion in transfer value.

With fans of both clubs involved, loyalties were put to the test as supporters weighed-up the credentials of naming their favourite stars, or replacing them with the opposition.

United centre back Nemanja Vidic was perhaps surprisingly the most frequently-picked defender from both squads, with 81% selecting the Serbian.

More unexpected was that Vidic was the surprise choice as most popular Manchester United player, edging ahead of England star Wayne Rooney, who earned a starting place in 78% of teams.

In midfield, despite being the subject of intense media attention, Ryan Giggs received backing of fans all over the globe. Nearly six in ten (59%) of would-be managers selected the Welsh winger in their fantasy formation.

And, despite enjoying cult hero status with Barca fans for his trophy-laden spells as player and manager, Pep Guardiola was no match for the experience of Sir Alex Ferguson, with more than six out of ten Spaniards choosing the Knight of the Realm as boss.

Europe's Ultimate XI: (4-3-3 formation)

Sir Alex Ferguson

Edwin Van der Sar

Dani Alves
Gerard Pique
Nemanja Vidic
Eric Abidal

Xavi Hernadez
Andres Iniesta
Ryan Giggs

Lionel Messi
Wayne Rooney
David Villa

Betfair's Leo Thompson said: "Our customers and football fans everywhere have had their say, and come up with an awe inspiring and unbeatable line-up of talent. As sponsors to both finalists, we are delighted to announce a team that pays tribute to the incredible performances of both clubs this season."

There's still time to pick your own ultimate XI and share it via Facebook and Twitter. For more information visit: europesultimatexi.betfair.com

Want to know how Manchester United can stop Barcelona? Michael Cox assesses the likely patterns of play and selection conundrums ahead of Saturday's Champions League final....

Smart bettors will look beyond the result, because there is some excellent value on offer in some of the other markets before the showdown at Wembley on Saturday night, writes James Eastham....

Two famous clubs. One fascinating final. Mike Norman takes a look at how both Manchester United and Barcelona made it to Saturday's mouthwatering Wembley showpiece....

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Big Match Tactical View: Barcelona v Manchester United

Champions League / Michael Cox / 26 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Rooney and Javier Hernandez are in great form

"Iniesta had a great game against United two years ago, and I fancy him for anytime scorer at around [8.4]."

Want to know how Manchester United can stop Barcelona? Michael Cox assesses the likely patterns of play and selection conundrums ahead of Saturday's Champions League final.

A repeat of the 2009 final sees Manchester United heading to Wembley and hoping for a different result. Whilst Barcelona's dominance in that final has been rather overstated in the two years since - only after Barca made it 2-0 were United really outclassed - there is no doubt that Sir Alex Ferguson's men start as underdogs.

Ferguson has a couple of decisions to make going into this match. The first one is simple - a choice at right-back between John O'Shea, Rafael and Fabio da Silva. O'Shea offers the experience and a more solid presence, but his lack of attacking endeavour in 2009 may make Ferguson turn to one of the Brazilian twins.

His second one is more complex. His 'big game' front six has been fairly settled in recent weeks - Ryan Giggs and Michael Carrick in the centre, Antonio Valencia and Park Ji-Sung on the flanks, and Wayne Rooney just off Javier Hernandez upfront. The decision, considering Barcelona's midfield dominance, is whether Ferguson should sacrifice Hernandez for another central midfielder - probably Darren Fletcher, who has returned from a virus to be fit for this game. Hernandez seems a more likely bet - his pace will cause Barcelona's high defensive line problems. And even if they drop deeper to take account of Hernandez's speed, that will simply open up space in the hole for Rooney.

This is all assuming that Ferguson doesn't have a major surprise up his sleeve.
Pep Guardiola's selection is easier. His only problem is at left-back - Eric Abidal might well be fit in time, but if not Carles Puyol will probably play there, with Javier Mascherano again filling in at centre-back. Elsewhere, it's likely to be Barcelona's familiar front six, with Lionel Messi deep in the centre of the pitch.

Messi, of course, is the key player. How can he not be? In 2009, United were flummoxed by his central positioning - he switched places with Samuel Eto'o and Ferguson never really worked out how to deal with it. Eto'o scored the first from the right, Messi bagged the second from the centre. This time around, United know Messi will start in the centre, and Ferguson will be able to plan for Messi's movement. It's unlikely that any specific player will be told to pick him up - United will focus on keeping it tight between the lines, which means that if the midfield press, the defence will have to press too. This could cause problems for United's centre-backs - particularly Nemanja Vidic, a fabulous penalty box defender, but one who looks vulnerable on the turn. I fancy him to be shown a card at [3.0].

United's second task is how to break up Barcelona's passing game. In 2009 they pressed well from the front, dominating the first ten minutes and forcing Pep Guardiola to admit after the game that he was surprised how much they closed down early on. That looks likely to be the strategy again, though the central midfield partnership of Giggs and Carrick might prove to be too immobile against Xavi Hernandez and Andres Iniesta. The latter had a great game against United two years ago, and I fancy him for anytime scorer at around [8.4].

However, perhaps we're all focusing too much upon how United can stop Barca, and not how they can hurt the Spanish champions. United have been in great form going forward in recent weeks, partly because of the return to full fitness of Valencia. He'll be up against Barca's weakest position, left-back, and whoever his opponent is, he'll fancy his chances in one-on-one situations. Getting the ball out quickly to him will be key for United.

Hernandez' pace is another obvious outlet if he starts, whilst Park's clever positioning on the left-hand side can also cause opponents problems. The Korean is perhaps the ultimate 'defensive' winger, but he's shown his worth when it comes to goalscoring over the past year or so, particularly in big games. If Daniel Alves focuses too much on attacking, Park might get in behind.

It's also worth considering the referee in this one - Viktor Kassai likes to keep the game flowing.

The important factor here is not about the balance of play - Barcelona will dominate possession - but about what happens in the final third. United need to counter quickly, or Barca might defeat them convincingly again.

Recommended Bets
Vidic to be shown a card at [3.0]
Iniesta to score anytime at [8.4]

Manchester United's veteran midfielder has been imperious in the Champions League this season. Max Liu believes the great man might yet be the match winner at Wembley......

There aren't many areas of the Barca team that could be described as weak but the leftback position may be an area where Manchester United will get some joy, says Ben Lyttleton...

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Champions League Betting: Barcelona v Real Madrid

Champions League / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 02 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Cristiano Ronaldo may let frustration and jealously get the better of him on the night

"But I’d rather take on Cristiano Ronaldo at anything below [2.6]. Yes, he scored against Barcelona in the two prior matches but the first was a penalty and the second came in extra-time. For the most part in the first leg he looked isolated, uninspired and quite frankly, a little fed up. Barcelona will have most of the ball for large periods of the game again and Real’s chances will be at a premium so the smart money is on Ronaldo drawing another blank."

Barca are all but in the final of the Champions League once again. The circumstances are such that another win is on the cards for them with a particularly miserable night for Cristiano Ronaldo, so bet accordingly, says Jamie Pacheco.

First things first. I was surprised Pepe got his marching orders for that challenge on Dani Alves. It was high and a little reckless (even though not much contact was made) but a straight red was inconsistent with the way Wolfgang Stark had refereed the match up to that point.

With the possible exception of Sergio Ramos' booking which was for a downright cynical foul, most of the cards brandished up to then were for persistent fouling. Stark got the Pepe incident wrong but the truth is the blame lies with Alves for making such a meal of it. It's not the first time we've seen the Brazilian do this on a football pitch and he's not alone in doing what he felt he needed to be done to turn a finely-balanced match his team's way. What it means though is that Pep Guardiola's team have lost the right to talk about playing football in the right way and in the right spirit. Because it wasn't just Alves; throughout the match virtually every Barca player was guilty of brandishing imaginary cards, shouting in Stark's face and generally putting pressure on the ref to punish the opposing players. Sadly we've seen plenty of this from Mourinhos' sides in the past but on the night, Barca were just as bad as them.

Match Odds

Barcelona have won 21 of their last 23 matches in all competitions; the other two were league draws against Mallorca and the 1-1 stalemate against Real a few weeks back. For what it's worth, I felt Barcelona were the better side for much of the match well before the sending-off and that the best Real could have hoped for prior to Pepe's dismissal was a goalless draw.

Sergio Ramos is a bit of a loose cannon but Real will miss his positional awareness and experience of playing big matches. The reason Pepe is so important for Real in that anchor role is because of his heading ability that would have allowed him to dominate Barcelona's much smaller midfield when it came to any aerial battles. They'll miss him too.

If you've ever seen Barca play for a draw just because they don't actually need to, you've matched more of them than I have. It's not a huge price at [1.7], but they're that price for a reason.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

The absence of the two aforementioned players will make Real weaker at the back and the chance of goals obviously increases for that reason alone. That said, rarely did Real threaten at all in the first leg so there's no reason why they should all of a sudden pose such a threat at the Camp Nou. Overs will probably pay out one way or another at 1.68 but you'd probably be better off backing Barca 3-0 at [16.0] if you fancy the three goal barrier to be broken.

To Score

There will be plenty wanting to get with Lionel Messi to score once again at odds of [2.0] or better and to be honest, I can't blame them.

But I'd rather take on Cristiano Ronaldo at anything below [2.7]. Yes, he scored against Barcelona in the two prior matches but the first was a penalty and the second came in extra-time. For the most part in the first leg he looked isolated, uninspired and quite frankly, a little fed up. Barcelona will have most of the ball for large periods of the game again and Real's chances will be at a premium so the smart money is on Ronaldo drawing another blank.

To be shown a card?

In normal circumstances the [2.5] on another sending-off in this match would be appealing given what's gone on between these two over the past three weeks. But these aren't normal circumstances because I don't think there's any way a Barcelona player will allow himself to get sent off in the second leg of a tie that is all but done and dusted; that would just be giving Real what they want, irrespective of the latter being knocked out anyway. Meaning [2.5] on a Real player getting his marching orders again, looks a tad short. The better option is to go in search of a couple of Real players who may let the occasion get the better of them.

Alvaro Arbeloa ([2.5)] was given the run-around in the first leg and will be seeing plenty of Lionel Messi running straight at him. Further upfield the aforementioned Cristiano Ronaldo ([4.0]) may have to endure Messi proving once again that it's him and not Ronaldo who is the best player on the planet and this may be the night the Portuguese skipper lets his frustrations out on opponent or referee.

Recommended Bets:

Best Bet: Lay Cristiano Ronaldo to score anytime at [2.7]

Other Recommended Bet: Back Barcelona to win at [1.7]

Barcelona beat Real Madrid tonight with Lionel Messi scoring twice after Pepe was dismissed and have one foot in the final of the Champions League....

Looking ahead to one of the most eagerly-awaited European games in years, James Eastham says Jose Mourinho's resurgent hosts are underestimated against their deadly rivals....

Things have generally gone in the Special One's favour in his battles against the Barca boss. But could Pep Guardiola turn it around in the semi-final of the Champions League?...

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Champions League Betting: Real Madrid v Barcelona

Champions League / James Eastham / 26 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Barcelona celebrate scoring in the Copa del Rey final - will they be celebrating on Wednesday night?

"Home advantage appears to be a definite advantage in Champions League semi-final first legs: the record of home sides at this stage of the competition over the past decade is W9-D8-L3. Those stats suggest the value lies with Real or the draw."

Looking ahead to one of the most eagerly-awaited European games in years, James Eastham says Jose Mourinho's resurgent hosts are underestimated against their deadly rivals.

For Barcelona, Andres Iniesta is a doubt with a calf injury. The visitors have defensive worries, too: Eric Abidal and his understudy Adriano are both missing, so Carles Puyol is being tipped to play at left-back.

For the hosts, Ricardo Carvalho is suspended, so Raul Albiol will partner Sergio Ramos at the heart of the defence. With Germany midfielder Sami Khedira injured, Xabi Alonso and Pepe will line-up in central midfield, as they might have done anyway. Emmanuel Adebayor is expected to lead the forward line ahead of Angel di Maria, Mesut Ozil and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Match Odds

The two recent meetings between the sides (1-1 at Santiago Bernabeu in the league, 0-0 after 90 minutes on neutral territory in the Copa del Rey final) underlined how little there is to choose between them. After the 5-0 mauling he suffered at the hands of Barcelona earlier in the season Jose Mourinho appears to have learned the lesson and made Real much more difficult to beat against their greatest enemies.

It's almost impossible to separate the sides based on those recent head-to-head clashes so the historic tournament stats provide an excellent guide for bettors wanting to stake on the match outcome. Home advantage appears to be a definite advantage in Champions League semi-final first legs: the record of home sides at this stage of the competition over the past decade is W9-D8-L3. Those stats suggest the value lies with Real or the draw, as the hosts are [2.84] to win, the draw [3.4] and Barcelona [2.78]. For me, the best options are backing the draw, laying Barcelona or using the Asian handicap market instead (see below).

Under / Over 2.5 goals

Fifteen of the last 20 Champions League semi-finals have had under 2.5 goals, with an average number of goals per game of 1.6. The price of [1.87] on unders seems too big, especially when you take into account the negative tactics Jose Mourinho has employed in the two meetings between the sides this month.

If you're looking for a bigger price in the goals markets, consider under 1.5 goals at [3.65]. On the basis of the historic stats, the price should be odds-on: 12 of the last 20 semi-final first legs have had under 1.5 goals.

Asian Handicap

If you had backed the home side with a -0 start on the Asian handicap in each of the 20 Champions League semi-final first legs over the past 10 years, you would have had nine winning bets, three losing bets and your stakes returned eight times. In a match where there is so little to choose between the sides on current form, I'm inclined to listen to the historic trends, making Real Madrid -0 at [1.98] a viable alternative to backing either Real or the draw, or laying Barcelona. If the game ends all-square, you'll get your stakes back. If Real win, you'll make a profit.

To Qualify

I would make Barcelona slight rather than strong favourites to win the tie. The Catalans' price of [1.59] to reach the final gives them a 63% chance. This looks too big to me. Real, at [2.68], offer better value.

Top Stat: The average number of goals per game in the last 20 Champions League semi-final first legs is 1.6.

Best Bet: Real Madrid v Barcelona under 2.5 goals @ [1.87].
Other Recommended Bet: Real Madrid -0 Asian handicap @ [1.98].

Things have generally gone in the Special One's favour in his battles against the Barca boss. But could Pepe Guardiola turn it around in the semi-final of the Champions League?...

If you need an explanation of who the two big stars are ahead of this match you don't watch enough football. Magical Matthew Walton tells us how to go about dealing with Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi in the goalscorer...

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Big Match Tactical View: Real Madrid v Barcelona

Champions League / Michael Cox / 26 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Madrid stop Messi?

"It’s difficult to refute the idea that Mourinho has won the battle so far."

Things have generally gone in the Special One's favour in his battles against the Barca boss. But could Pepe Guardiola turn it around in the semi-final of the Champions League?

One of the greatest possible match-ups for a European football semi-final; Real Madrid v Barcelona, Jose Mourinho v Pep Guardiola, two legs, one final place up for grabs. We may have seen these teams face-off twice in recent weeks, but this two-legged tie is far, far more important than the league or Copa del Rey matches.

Those matches provided plenty of clues about how this tie will shape up, however, and it's difficult to refute the idea that Mourinho has won the battle so far. In the league game he managed to snatch a point from 1-0 down despite being reduced to ten men, and in the cup final Real started better, weathered the storm in the second half, and then pounced in extra-time.

Interestingly, he used completely different tactics in the two matches. In the League, Real sat relatively deep behind the ball and let Barcelona play, seeking to attack mainly on the break to exploit Barcelona's high line. In the Cup, Real pressed higher up the pitch - they played without a traditional striker, used Cristiano Ronaldo up front, and also pushed Pepe forward ahead of Xabi Alonso in a 4-1-4-1 system, using he and Sami Khedira as aggressive midfield hustlers to get into the faces of Xavi Hernandez, Andres Iniesta and Sergio Busquets.

The danger for Mourinho is that he may have used his joker already, even before the most important battle. Using Pepe as a midfielder and Ronaldo as a forward were moves many expected, but not in the first two games. His other idea may be to use Marcelo as a left-winger with Alvaro Arbeloa at left-back in order to stop the dangerous runs of Daniel Alves from right-back - but that might be a little too defensive for the first leg at the Bernabeu.

Of course, in these Guardola v Mourinho contests (and this game is the eighth in the last two seasons between the two, with the ninth coming next week) we're used to going into the games thinking that the ball is in Mourinho's court. We usually know how Guardiola will set his side out, and it's up to Mourinho to find the tactics to stop Barca. That might not be the case here, however. Barcelona looked rather impotent in the cup final against Real - with Xavi and Iniesta denied time on the ball, Messi had to drop deeper and deeper to try and create, which meant Barcelona's main goal threat was further away from the Real Madrid goal.

David Villa has been desperately out of form - though he did score at the weekend - and Pedro Rodriguez has been rushed back, and isn't 100% fit. It's not unthinkable that Guardiola could vary his tactics, by dropping one of Villa or Pedro in order to play an extra man in midfield - Javier Mascherano, perhaps - and push Andres Iniesta into the front three. This would mean Iniesta could drop back and provide some creativity, leaving Messi able to play higher up the pitch. Aside from that, expect Guardiola's usual side, as Carles Puyol looks like being fit in time.

Mourinho has been hampered by the loss of Sami Khedira, who will miss both these matches. The return of Lassana Diarra is a boost, but whether he can play that hustling role as effectively as Khedira remains to be seen. Mourinho could also call upon Esteban Granero, an intelligent central midfielder, to play alongside Xabi Alonso and Pepe. Real have been very physical in the centre of the pitch, and one would expect the same again. They've also had a red card in each of the three Clasicos so far this season, and I fancy another one here, available at around [3.0]. Pepe, Alvaro Arbeloa and Sergio Ramos are three to watch in this respect.

Up front, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Mourinho go without a striker again, with Ronaldo and Mesut Ozil providing the attacking threat, with Angel di Maria on the left, blocking Alves' runs. Emmanuel Adebayor has done well when coming off the bench in the previous two games, and Mourinho might want a similar pattern of play here - keep it tight early on, then open up in the second half. I think a 0-0 at half time is a good bet if it creeps over the [3.0] mark, especially as this outcome has occurred in the last two meetings between the sides.

Recommended Bets
'Yes' in 'Sending Off' at [3.0]
'0-0' in 'Half Time Score' at [3.0]

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Champions League Betting: Barcelona v Shakhtar Donetsk

Champions League / James Eastham / 06 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Lionel Messi is one of the reasons Barcelona have been so free-scoring in this season's competition

"The price on both teams scoring in the game looks far too big at [2.2] considering Shakhtar's excellent scoring record in the competition. The Ukrainian champions have scored in all four away games so far, averaging 2.5 goals a game on the road."

James Eastham explains why Josep Guardiola's tournament favourites won't have things all their own way at Camp Nou on Wednesday night.

Introduction

Barcelona have problems as the back: Carles Puyol and Eric Abidal will be missing. Midfielder Sergei Busquets is likely to step in as centre-back, with Javier Mascherano replacing the Spain international in the midfield anchor role. Brazilian Adriano, in his first season at the club, is expected to replace Abidal at left-back.

Shakhtar are likely to put out the same side as they did against Roma in the last 16 away leg. They won 3-2 on that occasion.

Match Odds

Barcelona are aiming for a ninth consecutive home Champions League victory, so it's no surprise they're as short as [1.23] to win on the night. Josep Guardiola's side are runaway favourites to win the competition ([2.38] in the outright market), so you were never going to find appealing odds on a first-leg home victory.

Is there any point laying the hosts? Shakhtar Donetsk are an excellent counter-attacking side, as they underlined with their 3-2 win away to Roma in the last 16 first leg - and it's worth remembering they caused a surprise by winning 3-2 at Camp Nou in a group-stage game in December 2008 (they scored with their only three attempts on target that night).

You can lay Barca at [1.25], back the draw at [7.4] or support Shakhtar at [17.5]. With Barcelona such a formidable force at home, however, the prices look fair to me, so I'd leave the match odds market alone.

Under / Over

Barcelona's firepower always makes over 2.5 goals a compelling bet at Camp Nou, although only one of their three group games at home had three goals or more: after thrashing Panathinaikos 5-1, they recorded 2-0 victories over FC Copenhagen and Rubin Kazan. Looking at Barcelona's fixtures in all competitions this season, however, 17 of 24 (71%) have had over 2.5 goals.

Add the stats from Shakhtar's away games, and over 2.5 goals becomes an even stronger proposition. All four of their away games have featured three goals or more, with a goals average of 4.25 goals a game. These figures justify the price of [1.55] on over 2.5 goals. Given the stats, over 3.5 goals is worth considering at [2.38], too.

Both Teams to Score

The price on both teams scoring in the game looks far too big at [2.2] considering Shakhtar's excellent scoring record in the competition. The Ukrainian champions have scored in all four away games so far, averaging 2.5 goals a game on the road. Barcelona have kept two clean sheets in four home matches, but the pace and precision of Shakhtar's counter-attacks suggests the odds-against price is too big, especially as Barcelona will be without two members of their best back four in Puyol and Abidal.

Correct Scoreline

This market is usually too speculative for me, but with the chances of Shakhtar scoring underestimated, I'd consider splitting my stakes across 2-1 and 3-1 Barcelona victories. These outcomes are available at [12.0] and [13.0] respectively.

Top Stat: Shakhtar have scored at least once in all four away games in this season's Champions League proper

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score @ [2.2].

Other Recommended Bets: 2-1 and 3-1 Barcelona victories at [12.0] and [13.0] respectively.

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Champions League Betting: Barcelona v Arsenal

Champions League / Tobias Gourlay / 06 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Spanish Villa: Arsenal might not like what they find in the Camp Nou on Tuesday

"Thirty-six of Barca’s 37 league goals at the Camp Nou this season have come from open play"

Leo Messi has been off-colour in a couple of recent games, but David Villa is rested and raring to go against Arsenal on Tuesday night, says Tobias Gourlay

Jack Wilshere, who impressed many in the first leg, has declared himself fit for this match. But Theo Walcott and Robin van Persie are out, while Cesc Fabregas and Alex Song face fitness tests. With or without them, Arsenal are [3.75] outsiders to qualify, despite a 2-1 advantage.

Carles Puyol, and Gerard Pique, Barcelona's usual central defenders, are ruled out, but the Spanish champions believe the rest of the squad will be available after they rested players in Saturday's match with Real Zaragoza.

Pep Guardiola is Barca's main cause for concern. The coach has a back problem that has forced him to spend recent nights in hospital. He was at the Camp Nou for the win over Zaragoza and, as chief implenter of Barca's tactical variations, his absence would be noticed on Tuesday night.

Match Odds

Barcelona are [1.31] to win in 90 minutes. Since the first leg, they have won 4/4 league games. In contrast, Arsenal have lost a cup final, drawn a home league game and won only a couple of other matches - one of them against Leyton Orient.

Guardiola is W5-D1-L0 at home in Champions League knockout ties and Arsenal, who have lost 5/6 on the road in this competition, do not have a big enough bus to park. It is hard to argue with the layers.

Under / Over

Barcelona created quite a few good chances at the Emirates, but were profligate in front of goal. They were wasteful too against Valencia last week and only won 1-0.

Leo Messi missed one-on-ones in both games and he seemed to tense up - as though the pressure of being the world's best player might be getting to him. But, as Arsenal might remember, if he scores early, he scores often.

Even if you fancy Messi to do well again in this fixture, there is no value in backing Over 2.5 Goals at [1.47].

To Score

Thirty-six of Barca's 37 league goals at the Camp Nou this season have come from open play. Set pieces and penalties are not their thing - they are about sharp interplay and darting runs into the box.

Some of those runs were mistimed a fortnight ago, when they were caught offside nine times, but even then David Villa scored once. [2.5] or more would be a good price at which to back him to do the same again this week.

Best Bet: Back David Villa To Score at [2.5]

You can now follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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Champions League Betting: Arsenal v Barcelona

Champions League / Tobias Gourlay / 15 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can greased lightning strike twice? Theo Walcott will worry Barcelona's defence again.

"Barca don't handle pace as well as they do every other aspect of their beautiful game"

Arsenal and Barcelona should produce another enthralling match at the Emirates on Wednesday, says Tobias Gourlay.

Arsenal have been in the Champions League quarter finals three seasons in a row. To make it four, they must beat Barcelona. Surprisingly, Samir Nasri is available to Arsene Wenger, who must do without Bacary Sagna and Abou Diaby.

The Spanish champions are without their captain, Carles Puyol, but should otherwise be at full strength, which means the Gunners must cope with their MVP front three. Leo Messi, David Villa and Pedro have already scored more than 50 goals in La Liga this season.

Match Odds

A year ago, these two drew a quarter-final first leg 2-2. Barca gave a masterclass, went 2-0 up, then knocked off early. It was as close as Arsenal have come to losing at home in Europe for a while. No team from outside England has beaten them in 27 Champions League games at the Emirates. This season, they won 3/3 in the group stage.

Barcelona's win at Panathinaikos in the final round of the group stage was their first in six Champions League away games and only their second in 12. They don't often lose either - last season's famous defeat to Jose Mourinho's Inter is the only one under Pep Guardiola. Which means they must be drawing a lot. Nine in their last 12, to be precise. What price another one this week?

[3.95], since you ask.

Under / Over

There were nine goals in the 2010 tie. No wonder Over 2.5 Goals is a [1.69] shot for this match. Guardiola will ignore the fact it is a first leg and send his team out as usual. They will harry their hosts, demand possession of the ball and give them no time to settle. In doing so, they will give Arsenal's talented midfielders opportunities to counterattack. The expectation of goals appears well founded.

To Score

Theo Walcott scored the goal that gave Arsenal hope in this fixture 12 months ago. There are a couple of reasons to think he can do the same again: he's still quick; the Catalans still keep a very high defensive line. Barca don't handle pace as well as they do every other aspect of their beautiful game and the English flyer might be the home side's most potent attacking threat. Despite an injury, Walcott has scored a career-best 10 goals already this season.

At the other end, there is value in backing the third prong of Barca's attacking trident. Pedro has scored in 10 of his 12 Liga and Champions League starts since mid November. Like Walcott, his pace will help him against defenders who will play high up the pitch. And one of those defenders might be Sebastien Squillaci, who was a part of Sevilla teams that conceded 10 goals in three defeats to Barca during his time in Spain.

Best Bet: Back Theo Walcott To Score at [6.0]
Recommended Bet: Back Pedro To Score at [4.0]

You can now follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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