Champions League 
/ Michael Cox / 26 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Wayne Rooney and Javier Hernandez are in great form
"Iniesta had a great game against United two years ago, and I fancy him for anytime scorer at around [8.4]."
Want to know how Manchester United can stop Barcelona? Michael Cox assesses the likely patterns of play and selection conundrums ahead of Saturday's Champions League final.
A repeat of the 2009 final sees Manchester United heading to Wembley and hoping for a different result. Whilst Barcelona's dominance in that final has been rather overstated in the two years since - only after Barca made it 2-0 were United really outclassed - there is no doubt that Sir Alex Ferguson's men start as underdogs.
Ferguson has a couple of decisions to make going into this match. The first one is simple - a choice at right-back between John O'Shea, Rafael and Fabio da Silva. O'Shea offers the experience and a more solid presence, but his lack of attacking endeavour in 2009 may make Ferguson turn to one of the Brazilian twins.
His second one is more complex. His 'big game' front six has been fairly settled in recent weeks - Ryan Giggs and Michael Carrick in the centre, Antonio Valencia and Park Ji-Sung on the flanks, and Wayne Rooney just off Javier Hernandez upfront. The decision, considering Barcelona's midfield dominance, is whether Ferguson should sacrifice Hernandez for another central midfielder - probably Darren Fletcher, who has returned from a virus to be fit for this game. Hernandez seems a more likely bet - his pace will cause Barcelona's high defensive line problems. And even if they drop deeper to take account of Hernandez's speed, that will simply open up space in the hole for Rooney.
This is all assuming that Ferguson doesn't have a major surprise up his sleeve.
Pep Guardiola's selection is easier. His only problem is at left-back - Eric Abidal might well be fit in time, but if not Carles Puyol will probably play there, with Javier Mascherano again filling in at centre-back. Elsewhere, it's likely to be Barcelona's familiar front six, with Lionel Messi deep in the centre of the pitch.
Messi, of course, is the key player. How can he not be? In 2009, United were flummoxed by his central positioning - he switched places with Samuel Eto'o and Ferguson never really worked out how to deal with it. Eto'o scored the first from the right, Messi bagged the second from the centre. This time around, United know Messi will start in the centre, and Ferguson will be able to plan for Messi's movement. It's unlikely that any specific player will be told to pick him up - United will focus on keeping it tight between the lines, which means that if the midfield press, the defence will have to press too. This could cause problems for United's centre-backs - particularly Nemanja Vidic, a fabulous penalty box defender, but one who looks vulnerable on the turn. I fancy him to be shown a card at [3.0].
United's second task is how to break up Barcelona's passing game. In 2009 they pressed well from the front, dominating the first ten minutes and forcing Pep Guardiola to admit after the game that he was surprised how much they closed down early on. That looks likely to be the strategy again, though the central midfield partnership of Giggs and Carrick might prove to be too immobile against Xavi Hernandez and Andres Iniesta. The latter had a great game against United two years ago, and I fancy him for anytime scorer at around [8.4].
However, perhaps we're all focusing too much upon how United can stop Barca, and not how they can hurt the Spanish champions. United have been in great form going forward in recent weeks, partly because of the return to full fitness of Valencia. He'll be up against Barca's weakest position, left-back, and whoever his opponent is, he'll fancy his chances in one-on-one situations. Getting the ball out quickly to him will be key for United.
Hernandez' pace is another obvious outlet if he starts, whilst Park's clever positioning on the left-hand side can also cause opponents problems. The Korean is perhaps the ultimate 'defensive' winger, but he's shown his worth when it comes to goalscoring over the past year or so, particularly in big games. If Daniel Alves focuses too much on attacking, Park might get in behind.
It's also worth considering the referee in this one - Viktor Kassai likes to keep the game flowing.
The important factor here is not about the balance of play - Barcelona will dominate possession - but about what happens in the final third. United need to counter quickly, or Barca might defeat them convincingly again.
Recommended Bets
Vidic to be shown a card at [3.0]
Iniesta to score anytime at [8.4]
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