Champions League 
/ James Eastham / 26 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Barcelona celebrate scoring in the Copa del Rey final - will they be celebrating on Wednesday night?
"Home advantage appears to be a definite advantage in Champions League semi-final first legs: the record of home sides at this stage of the competition over the past decade is W9-D8-L3. Those stats suggest the value lies with Real or the draw."
Looking ahead to one of the most eagerly-awaited European games in years, James Eastham says Jose Mourinho's resurgent hosts are underestimated against their deadly rivals.
For Barcelona, Andres Iniesta is a doubt with a calf injury. The visitors have defensive worries, too: Eric Abidal and his understudy Adriano are both missing, so Carles Puyol is being tipped to play at left-back.
For the hosts, Ricardo Carvalho is suspended, so Raul Albiol will partner Sergio Ramos at the heart of the defence. With Germany midfielder Sami Khedira injured, Xabi Alonso and Pepe will line-up in central midfield, as they might have done anyway. Emmanuel Adebayor is expected to lead the forward line ahead of Angel di Maria, Mesut Ozil and Cristiano Ronaldo.
Match Odds
The two recent meetings between the sides (1-1 at Santiago Bernabeu in the league, 0-0 after 90 minutes on neutral territory in the Copa del Rey final) underlined how little there is to choose between them. After the 5-0 mauling he suffered at the hands of Barcelona earlier in the season Jose Mourinho appears to have learned the lesson and made Real much more difficult to beat against their greatest enemies.
It's almost impossible to separate the sides based on those recent head-to-head clashes so the historic tournament stats provide an excellent guide for bettors wanting to stake on the match outcome. Home advantage appears to be a definite advantage in Champions League semi-final first legs: the record of home sides at this stage of the competition over the past decade is W9-D8-L3. Those stats suggest the value lies with Real or the draw, as the hosts are [2.84] to win, the draw [3.4] and Barcelona [2.78]. For me, the best options are backing the draw, laying Barcelona or using the Asian handicap market instead (see below).
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Fifteen of the last 20 Champions League semi-finals have had under 2.5 goals, with an average number of goals per game of 1.6. The price of [1.87] on unders seems too big, especially when you take into account the negative tactics Jose Mourinho has employed in the two meetings between the sides this month.
If you're looking for a bigger price in the goals markets, consider under 1.5 goals at [3.65]. On the basis of the historic stats, the price should be odds-on: 12 of the last 20 semi-final first legs have had under 1.5 goals.
Asian Handicap
If you had backed the home side with a -0 start on the Asian handicap in each of the 20 Champions League semi-final first legs over the past 10 years, you would have had nine winning bets, three losing bets and your stakes returned eight times. In a match where there is so little to choose between the sides on current form, I'm inclined to listen to the historic trends, making Real Madrid -0 at [1.98] a viable alternative to backing either Real or the draw, or laying Barcelona. If the game ends all-square, you'll get your stakes back. If Real win, you'll make a profit.
To Qualify
I would make Barcelona slight rather than strong favourites to win the tie. The Catalans' price of [1.59] to reach the final gives them a 63% chance. This looks too big to me. Real, at [2.68], offer better value.
Top Stat: The average number of goals per game in the last 20 Champions League semi-final first legs is 1.6.
Best Bet: Real Madrid v Barcelona under 2.5 goals @ [1.87].
Other Recommended Bet: Real Madrid -0 Asian handicap @ [1.98].
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