Champions League 
/ Tobias Gourlay / 06 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Spanish Villa: Arsenal might not like what they find in the Camp Nou on Tuesday
"Thirty-six of Barca’s 37 league goals at the Camp Nou this season have come from open play"
Leo Messi has been off-colour in a couple of recent games, but David Villa is rested and raring to go against Arsenal on Tuesday night, says Tobias Gourlay
Jack Wilshere, who impressed many in the first leg, has declared himself fit for this match. But Theo Walcott and Robin van Persie are out, while Cesc Fabregas and Alex Song face fitness tests. With or without them, Arsenal are [3.75] outsiders to qualify, despite a 2-1 advantage.
Carles Puyol, and Gerard Pique, Barcelona's usual central defenders, are ruled out, but the Spanish champions believe the rest of the squad will be available after they rested players in Saturday's match with Real Zaragoza.
Pep Guardiola is Barca's main cause for concern. The coach has a back problem that has forced him to spend recent nights in hospital. He was at the Camp Nou for the win over Zaragoza and, as chief implenter of Barca's tactical variations, his absence would be noticed on Tuesday night.
Match Odds
Barcelona are [1.31] to win in 90 minutes. Since the first leg, they have won 4/4 league games. In contrast, Arsenal have lost a cup final, drawn a home league game and won only a couple of other matches - one of them against Leyton Orient.
Guardiola is W5-D1-L0 at home in Champions League knockout ties and Arsenal, who have lost 5/6 on the road in this competition, do not have a big enough bus to park. It is hard to argue with the layers.
Under / Over
Barcelona created quite a few good chances at the Emirates, but were profligate in front of goal. They were wasteful too against Valencia last week and only won 1-0.
Leo Messi missed one-on-ones in both games and he seemed to tense up - as though the pressure of being the world's best player might be getting to him. But, as Arsenal might remember, if he scores early, he scores often.
Even if you fancy Messi to do well again in this fixture, there is no value in backing Over 2.5 Goals at [1.47].
To Score
Thirty-six of Barca's 37 league goals at the Camp Nou this season have come from open play. Set pieces and penalties are not their thing - they are about sharp interplay and darting runs into the box.
Some of those runs were mistimed a fortnight ago, when they were caught offside nine times, but even then David Villa scored once. [2.5] or more would be a good price at which to back him to do the same again this week.
Best Bet: Back David Villa To Score at [2.5]
You can now follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay
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