Champions League 
/ James Eastham / 06 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Lionel Messi is one of the reasons Barcelona have been so free-scoring in this season's competition
"The price on both teams scoring in the game looks far too big at [2.2] considering Shakhtar's excellent scoring record in the competition. The Ukrainian champions have scored in all four away games so far, averaging 2.5 goals a game on the road."
James Eastham explains why Josep Guardiola's tournament favourites won't have things all their own way at Camp Nou on Wednesday night.
Introduction
Barcelona have problems as the back: Carles Puyol and Eric Abidal will be missing. Midfielder Sergei Busquets is likely to step in as centre-back, with Javier Mascherano replacing the Spain international in the midfield anchor role. Brazilian Adriano, in his first season at the club, is expected to replace Abidal at left-back.
Shakhtar are likely to put out the same side as they did against Roma in the last 16 away leg. They won 3-2 on that occasion.
Match Odds
Barcelona are aiming for a ninth consecutive home Champions League victory, so it's no surprise they're as short as [1.23] to win on the night. Josep Guardiola's side are runaway favourites to win the competition ([2.38] in the outright market), so you were never going to find appealing odds on a first-leg home victory.
Is there any point laying the hosts? Shakhtar Donetsk are an excellent counter-attacking side, as they underlined with their 3-2 win away to Roma in the last 16 first leg - and it's worth remembering they caused a surprise by winning 3-2 at Camp Nou in a group-stage game in December 2008 (they scored with their only three attempts on target that night).
You can lay Barca at [1.25], back the draw at [7.4] or support Shakhtar at [17.5]. With Barcelona such a formidable force at home, however, the prices look fair to me, so I'd leave the match odds market alone.
Under / Over
Barcelona's firepower always makes over 2.5 goals a compelling bet at Camp Nou, although only one of their three group games at home had three goals or more: after thrashing Panathinaikos 5-1, they recorded 2-0 victories over FC Copenhagen and Rubin Kazan. Looking at Barcelona's fixtures in all competitions this season, however, 17 of 24 (71%) have had over 2.5 goals.
Add the stats from Shakhtar's away games, and over 2.5 goals becomes an even stronger proposition. All four of their away games have featured three goals or more, with a goals average of 4.25 goals a game. These figures justify the price of [1.55] on over 2.5 goals. Given the stats, over 3.5 goals is worth considering at [2.38], too.
Both Teams to Score
The price on both teams scoring in the game looks far too big at [2.2] considering Shakhtar's excellent scoring record in the competition. The Ukrainian champions have scored in all four away games so far, averaging 2.5 goals a game on the road. Barcelona have kept two clean sheets in four home matches, but the pace and precision of Shakhtar's counter-attacks suggests the odds-against price is too big, especially as Barcelona will be without two members of their best back four in Puyol and Abidal.
Correct Scoreline
This market is usually too speculative for me, but with the chances of Shakhtar scoring underestimated, I'd consider splitting my stakes across 2-1 and 3-1 Barcelona victories. These outcomes are available at [12.0] and [13.0] respectively.
Top Stat: Shakhtar have scored at least once in all four away games in this season's Champions League proper
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score @ [2.2].
Other Recommended Bets: 2-1 and 3-1 Barcelona victories at [12.0] and [13.0] respectively.
Tobias Gourlay explains why Leonardo, who is yet to win a Champions League match at the San Siro in five attempts with both Milan clubs, should get off the mark against Schalke...
We have some cracking ties this week and the neutral can look forward to plenty of goals and also a few tasty tackles. Here's what the stats say about the clean sheet and booings odds markets....
They're the hot favourites and have looked mighty impressive so far but Barcelona won't be lifting the Champions League in May, says the Betfair Contrarian. Here's why....
No comments:
Post a Comment