Champions League Betting: Barcelona v Shakhtar Donetsk

Champions League / James Eastham / 06 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Lionel Messi is one of the reasons Barcelona have been so free-scoring in this season's competition

"The price on both teams scoring in the game looks far too big at [2.2] considering Shakhtar's excellent scoring record in the competition. The Ukrainian champions have scored in all four away games so far, averaging 2.5 goals a game on the road."

James Eastham explains why Josep Guardiola's tournament favourites won't have things all their own way at Camp Nou on Wednesday night.

Introduction

Barcelona have problems as the back: Carles Puyol and Eric Abidal will be missing. Midfielder Sergei Busquets is likely to step in as centre-back, with Javier Mascherano replacing the Spain international in the midfield anchor role. Brazilian Adriano, in his first season at the club, is expected to replace Abidal at left-back.

Shakhtar are likely to put out the same side as they did against Roma in the last 16 away leg. They won 3-2 on that occasion.

Match Odds

Barcelona are aiming for a ninth consecutive home Champions League victory, so it's no surprise they're as short as [1.23] to win on the night. Josep Guardiola's side are runaway favourites to win the competition ([2.38] in the outright market), so you were never going to find appealing odds on a first-leg home victory.

Is there any point laying the hosts? Shakhtar Donetsk are an excellent counter-attacking side, as they underlined with their 3-2 win away to Roma in the last 16 first leg - and it's worth remembering they caused a surprise by winning 3-2 at Camp Nou in a group-stage game in December 2008 (they scored with their only three attempts on target that night).

You can lay Barca at [1.25], back the draw at [7.4] or support Shakhtar at [17.5]. With Barcelona such a formidable force at home, however, the prices look fair to me, so I'd leave the match odds market alone.

Under / Over

Barcelona's firepower always makes over 2.5 goals a compelling bet at Camp Nou, although only one of their three group games at home had three goals or more: after thrashing Panathinaikos 5-1, they recorded 2-0 victories over FC Copenhagen and Rubin Kazan. Looking at Barcelona's fixtures in all competitions this season, however, 17 of 24 (71%) have had over 2.5 goals.

Add the stats from Shakhtar's away games, and over 2.5 goals becomes an even stronger proposition. All four of their away games have featured three goals or more, with a goals average of 4.25 goals a game. These figures justify the price of [1.55] on over 2.5 goals. Given the stats, over 3.5 goals is worth considering at [2.38], too.

Both Teams to Score

The price on both teams scoring in the game looks far too big at [2.2] considering Shakhtar's excellent scoring record in the competition. The Ukrainian champions have scored in all four away games so far, averaging 2.5 goals a game on the road. Barcelona have kept two clean sheets in four home matches, but the pace and precision of Shakhtar's counter-attacks suggests the odds-against price is too big, especially as Barcelona will be without two members of their best back four in Puyol and Abidal.

Correct Scoreline

This market is usually too speculative for me, but with the chances of Shakhtar scoring underestimated, I'd consider splitting my stakes across 2-1 and 3-1 Barcelona victories. These outcomes are available at [12.0] and [13.0] respectively.

Top Stat: Shakhtar have scored at least once in all four away games in this season's Champions League proper

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score @ [2.2].

Other Recommended Bets: 2-1 and 3-1 Barcelona victories at [12.0] and [13.0] respectively.

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Champions League Betting: Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma

Champions League / Tobias Gourlay / 07 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Broken wings: can Vincenzo Montella help Roma fly again?

"Roma last kept a clean sheet away from home in Europe four years and 13 games ago"

Tobias Gourlay does not think Vincenzo Montella can stop Roma's season crash-landing in Donetsk on Tuesday night.

Roma's 3-2 defeat to Mircea Lucescu's Shakhtar Donetsk in the first leg of this tie encouraged Claudio Ranieri's resignation and might well cost the Italian club its place in the quarter finals. Shakhtar are [1.15] favourites to go through.

Ranieri has been replaced by Vincenzo Montella, the 'Little Aeroplane' who used to play alongside Francesco Totti in some of Roma's best recent years. For his first-ever European game as a coach, Montella must do without suspended playmaker Jeremy Menez and right-back Marco Cassetti,

Roma's players might have improved their attitude since Ranieri's departure, but the new coach looks set to use a formation not much different from his predecessor's.

Match Odds

Shakhtar are unbeaten in 11 European home games and won each of their three group-stage games at the Donbass Arena in this season's Champions League.

Montella is W2-D1-L0 in Serie A to date, but his squad still lacks players to give the team width. His need to attack might favour the hosts, whose 4-2-3-1 is designed for the counter-attack and worked well two weeks ago.

Under / Over

Roma last kept a clean sheet away from home in Europe four years and 13 games ago. Defending cannot be a priority on Tuesday night because they need to score twice to stand a chance of qualification.

Lucescu claims: "The worst thing is for a team to play boring football. For me, if you are boring you should not play at all." If he is true to his words this week, he will free his wingers from any defensive duties and Over 2,5 Goals will be too long at [1.96].

Both Teams to Score?

Roma have scored in each of the 14 away games they have played since being held to a goalless draw by Parma in October. Exclude a trio of 1-0 defeats in England and the Giallorossi have also scored in 9/10 Champions League away games.

Good attacking record, poor defensive record? It must be Both Teams to Score at [1.8]

Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals at [1.96]
Recommended Bet: Back Both Teams to Score at [1.8]

You can now follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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Champions League Betting: Roma v Shakhtar Donetsk

Champions League / Tobias Gourlay / 15 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Eduardo has converted one in every two chances he's been given in this season's Champions League.

"Shakhtar should certainly create a few chances against a team that lacks a true holding midfielder and whose defence is often isolated."

Shakhtar might be rusty, but they can still dent Claudio Ranieri's hopes of extending his tenure at Roma much longer, says Tobias Gourlay.

Roma coach Claudio Ranieri is missing first-choice goalkeeper Julio Sergio and playmaker David Pizarro on Wednesday night. At least one of Francesco Totti and Jeremy Menez should return to the team after starting on the bench at the weekend.

Shakhtar Donetsk have not played a competitive game for more than two months. Mircea Lucescu's side overcame similar calendar-related disadvantages to win the UEFA Cup a couple of years ago, but this is the first time they have have been put to the test in the knockout stages of the Champions League. Brazilian playmaker Fernandinho is still recovering from a broken leg and will not take any part in this game.

Match Odds

Shakhtar qualified from their group ahead of Arsenal. Lucescu, who has coached in Italy and tasted success in the Stadio Olimpico with Pisa and Brescia many years ago, has assured Roma that his team will be 'hard to beat' in this tie.

The market is listening, to some extent, and makes Roma less likely to win than not ([2.12]). Although the Italians' poor domestic form - one point from nine in February and 8th place overall in Serie A - also has something to do with this.

Under / Over

Roma are the only team among the last 16 who have not kept a clean sheet in the Champions League this season. Shakhtar scored seven times in three group-stage away games, which all went Over 2.5 Goals. The visitors' lack of a match fitness is a concern, but the numbers say Over 2.5 Goals is too long at [2.24]. All three of Roma's group-stage home games went that way too.

To Score

Shakhtar should certainly create a few chances against a team that lacks a true holding midfielder and whose defence is often isolated. Who better than Eduardo to be on the end of those chances? Well, there are probably a few you can think of, but the ex-Arsenal striker has scored three goals from only six shots in the competition so far.

Meanwhile, Roma forward Marco Borriello has scored in four of his last five Champions League appearances. With creative support from Totti or Menez or both, the Italian international should get opportunities to further improve his good record.

Best Bet: Back Eduardo To Score at [6.0]
Recommended Bet: Back Marco Borriello To Score at [3.0]

You can now follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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