Champions League 
/ Michael Cox / 26 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Can Madrid stop Messi?
"It’s difficult to refute the idea that Mourinho has won the battle so far."
Things have generally gone in the Special One's favour in his battles against the Barca boss. But could Pepe Guardiola turn it around in the semi-final of the Champions League?
One of the greatest possible match-ups for a European football semi-final; Real Madrid v Barcelona, Jose Mourinho v Pep Guardiola, two legs, one final place up for grabs. We may have seen these teams face-off twice in recent weeks, but this two-legged tie is far, far more important than the league or Copa del Rey matches.
Those matches provided plenty of clues about how this tie will shape up, however, and it's difficult to refute the idea that Mourinho has won the battle so far. In the league game he managed to snatch a point from 1-0 down despite being reduced to ten men, and in the cup final Real started better, weathered the storm in the second half, and then pounced in extra-time.
Interestingly, he used completely different tactics in the two matches. In the League, Real sat relatively deep behind the ball and let Barcelona play, seeking to attack mainly on the break to exploit Barcelona's high line. In the Cup, Real pressed higher up the pitch - they played without a traditional striker, used Cristiano Ronaldo up front, and also pushed Pepe forward ahead of Xabi Alonso in a 4-1-4-1 system, using he and Sami Khedira as aggressive midfield hustlers to get into the faces of Xavi Hernandez, Andres Iniesta and Sergio Busquets.
The danger for Mourinho is that he may have used his joker already, even before the most important battle. Using Pepe as a midfielder and Ronaldo as a forward were moves many expected, but not in the first two games. His other idea may be to use Marcelo as a left-winger with Alvaro Arbeloa at left-back in order to stop the dangerous runs of Daniel Alves from right-back - but that might be a little too defensive for the first leg at the Bernabeu.
Of course, in these Guardola v Mourinho contests (and this game is the eighth in the last two seasons between the two, with the ninth coming next week) we're used to going into the games thinking that the ball is in Mourinho's court. We usually know how Guardiola will set his side out, and it's up to Mourinho to find the tactics to stop Barca. That might not be the case here, however. Barcelona looked rather impotent in the cup final against Real - with Xavi and Iniesta denied time on the ball, Messi had to drop deeper and deeper to try and create, which meant Barcelona's main goal threat was further away from the Real Madrid goal.
David Villa has been desperately out of form - though he did score at the weekend - and Pedro Rodriguez has been rushed back, and isn't 100% fit. It's not unthinkable that Guardiola could vary his tactics, by dropping one of Villa or Pedro in order to play an extra man in midfield - Javier Mascherano, perhaps - and push Andres Iniesta into the front three. This would mean Iniesta could drop back and provide some creativity, leaving Messi able to play higher up the pitch. Aside from that, expect Guardiola's usual side, as Carles Puyol looks like being fit in time.
Mourinho has been hampered by the loss of Sami Khedira, who will miss both these matches. The return of Lassana Diarra is a boost, but whether he can play that hustling role as effectively as Khedira remains to be seen. Mourinho could also call upon Esteban Granero, an intelligent central midfielder, to play alongside Xabi Alonso and Pepe. Real have been very physical in the centre of the pitch, and one would expect the same again. They've also had a red card in each of the three Clasicos so far this season, and I fancy another one here, available at around [3.0]. Pepe, Alvaro Arbeloa and Sergio Ramos are three to watch in this respect.
Up front, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Mourinho go without a striker again, with Ronaldo and Mesut Ozil providing the attacking threat, with Angel di Maria on the left, blocking Alves' runs. Emmanuel Adebayor has done well when coming off the bench in the previous two games, and Mourinho might want a similar pattern of play here - keep it tight early on, then open up in the second half. I think a 0-0 at half time is a good bet if it creeps over the [3.0] mark, especially as this outcome has occurred in the last two meetings between the sides.
Recommended Bets
'Yes' in 'Sending Off' at [3.0]
'0-0' in 'Half Time Score' at [3.0]
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