Spanish Football 
/ Michael Cox / 18 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Pep Guardiola and Unai Emery have great respect for one another, and relish their strategic battles
"Jeremy Mathieu has stormed forward to great effect against Barcelona this season"
The fourth meeting between the sides this season should be yet another interesting battle between two fine tacticians, says Michael Cox.
Barcelona v Valencia, Sunday 20:00, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Barcelona [1.29], Valencia [12.5], The Draw [6.4].
Barcelona are ten points behind Real Madrid in La Liga, and we now have to consider something new about the side - level of motivation. Never before under Pep Guardiola has there been a question about how much effort Barcelona will put into their league performances, but now the league might be put to one side. After all, they're in the final of the Copa Del Rey, and remain [2.44] favourites for the Champions League.
Guardiola has a lot of respect for Unai Emery, and the tactical battles between the two have been particularly interesting in the last couple of years. In fact, in the past two league fixtures between the clubs at the Nou Camp, Guardiola has been forced into changing things at half time having been out-thought by Emery in the first half.
There is also more recent history between the two coaches - they've already faced each other twice in 2012, in the semi-final of the Copa del Rey. Barcelona came out on top in that two-legged tie, but Valencia caused them significant problems, as they did in the league meeting at the Mestalla, which ended in a 2-2 draw.
In the meetings this season, Guardiola has favoured his 3-4-3 system, rather than the variant of 4-3-3 he's used for the majority of his time in charge of the club. That approach has had mixed success - it dominates the centre of the pitch, but can be vulnerable to quick breaks down the flanks.
Valencia have exploited that weakness very well this season, almost exclusively down the left. There, Unai Emery has long favoured playing two left-backs in tandem against Barca, with Jeremy Mathieu generally lining up ahead of Jordi Alba, with the two switching around at will. That's now a key feature of the Valencia side, and whereas the primary reason for playing it against Guardiola's side was to stop Daniel Alves being such an attacking threat, it also works well in an attacking sense. Mathieu has stormed forward to great effect against Barcelona this season, and I expect him to feature prominently here, especially if Guardiola goes 3-4-3.
But he might not. In the first game between the sides this season he used Alves high up as the right-sided attacker, but he could play at right-back in a four, with Eric Abidal being either a left-back or a left-sided centre-back accordingly. In midfield, Xavi Hernandez will have a late fitness test, while Cesc Fabregas will probably be played in the front three alongside Lionel Messi and Alexis Sanchez.
Emery has a couple of decisions to make. First, how much will Valencia press? Often they've been very energetic at the Nou Camp but tired later on, and with two fewer days' rest after the sides' respective midweek Champions League clashes, this could be a risky strategy.
Second, who should Emery play in the centre of midfield? His 4-2-3-1 means he can play an attack-minded player behind the forward, like Pablo Piatti or Jonas, but here I think he might go for a more cautious approach, and play Ever Banega with David Albelda and Tino Costa behind. Albelda often seems to get into trouble against Barcelona, so I fancy him to be shown a card at [3.0].
The midfield battle will be dominated by the home side - the question is what Barcelona can do in the final third. At times this season the influence of Fabregas has made them a little too direct, and in a match like this I think Guardiola will encourage his side to be more patient with their passing. With that in mind, combined with Valencia's tendency to tire, I'll back Draw/Barcelona in the Half Time / Full time market at [5.0].
Recommended bets:
Albelda to be booked at [3.0]
Draw / Barcelona in Half Time / Full Time at [5.0]
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