Spanish Football 
/ Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Cesc Fabregas has few regrets about leaving Arsenal
"He (Fabregas) has 13 goals so far this season and six in his last six matches. He offers better value at [2.7] to score than Lionel Messi at odds-on.
Barcelona are very much in the driving seat after a 2-1 wi in the first leg but they won't be taking their feet off the gas given who they're up against. Cesc Fabregas is a good bet to score in yet another win for Pep Guardiola, says Jamie Pacheco.
You've got to feel for Jose Mourinho. However well Real Madrid play, however many goals they score, however much they entertain, it's never enough. It's never enough because whatever they do, Barcelona seem to do it a little better. Time and time again.
But maybe we shouldn't feel sorry for him. Football fans talk about singing when you're winning. When he was winning the Champions League with FC Porto, the Premier League with Chelsea and knocking the same Barcelona out of the Champions League en route to winning it with Inter Milan, there was plenty of singing. There was plenty of boasting, inventing of nicknames and goading, too. He enjoyed those moments, making himself come across as a genius who knew more than his counterparts, prepared better for games than them and motivated his players that little bit better. The problem with not winning gracefully is that you're an obvious target when you stop winning. That said, whereas he may have expected some abuse from other clubs' fans, I'm not sure he expected it from his own. Let's not forget that Real Madrid are after all still in the Champions League and still top of La Liga.
When we previewed this match last week, we reminded our dear reader of the cold facts. Real Madrid hadn't beaten Barcelona in their last 12 attempts. After last week's result, it's now 13.
Barcelona's price seems a bit too big. They're the ones who are on a high after last week's win and there's unlikely to be any chance of them just managing their lead and trying to settle for a draw. Firstly because Barca don't play for draws and secondly because any chance to run their rivals' noses in it is a good chance.
There's also a danger that if things don't go their way, Real's players may start to lose their discipline, something that we don't often see too much amongst Barcelona's. A sending-off is short enough at [2.4] so we won't be going for that but if there is one, it's likely to be a Real player taking an early bath and playing with ten men against Barcelona is nigh-on impossible. Either way, Barcelona are worth a bet at [1.68].
The "yes" option served us very well last week after being flagged up as the best bet of the match. The price is exactly the same ([1.68]) as it was last week but with Real having no choice but to chase the tie, our chances of the bet being landed are even better. For all their attacking prowess, it's now five straight matches that Barcelona have gone without keeping a clean sheet. We have no concerns about Barcelona not scoring (they've scored in 33 of 35 matches this season) and though it may well prove irrelevant in the context of the tie, Real should manage at least one.
Cesc Fabregas has been in outstanding goalscoring form this campaign. Any suspicions that he'd find it hard to get a game have surely been dissipated. In part that's because of his versatility which allows him to play in just about every position of the forward six in Barcelona's 4-3-3 (bar that of the central striker), in part because Barcelona play so many matches that rotation is essential rather than preferable and finally for the simple reason that he's a wonderful player. He has 13 goals so far this season and six in his last six matches. He offers better value at [2.7] to score than Lionel Messi at odds-on.
We've saved the best for last. What's happened in the last few years to that kid with the wonder left foot, mummy's boy haircut and placid temperament? A few things. For starters he's turned into the best player on the planet bar none, he cut his hair when he realised supermodels don't date anyone with that bad a haircut and lastly, he's started to give a little back in the old retribution stakes. It's little wonder given the atrocities that are done to him during 90 minutes by opposition defenders but in the process Lionel Messi has picked up three bookings in his last six matches. He's likely to be provoked plenty in this game, and not just by Pepe. Look to get a price of around [3.6] on Messi being cautioned again.
Best Bet: Back Barcelona to win @ [1.68]
Recommended Bets:
Back Cesc Fabregas to score @ [2.7]
Back Lionel Messi to be shown a card at [3.6]
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