Italian Football 
/ Dave Farrar / 01 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Leonardo could be the one smiling come Saturday night
"And the market reflects exactly that, with Inter at [2.72] and Milan at [3.0], but I think Inter are a bit more superior than that price suggests, and so I’m happy to back them."
Dave Farrar looks ahead to the Milan derby where Inter look the bet and Udinese's away trip to Lecce. And you all know what that means.
At around 10pm on Saturday night we'll know: or at least we'll have a much clearer idea of which team will come out on top in one of the most intriguing Serie A races in years. If Inter win at San Siro on Saturday, then they will go to the top of the table for the first time since Leonardo took over, while if Milan emerge with a victory then they will be five points clear with seven games left and surely cruising to the title. At the moment Milan are [2.24] to win the Scudetto, having traded as low as [1.26], while Inter are [2.5}, having gone as high as [9.2]. And Napoli mustn't be forgotten either: they're trading at [8.0], and a draw in the derby could leave the way open for them to make a late run and steal the Scudetto away from San Siro.
Onto the game itself, and it's time to ponder that old footballing saying about the team which handles the pressure the best coming out on top. I know that will irritate many of you, but such has been the build up, and such will be the atmosphere, that it's particularly true here.
Milan have not been dealing well with the pressure of leading Serie A, and the Rossoneri appear to be crumbling just when it matters. Massimiliano Allegri's team have picked up just one point from their last two games, against poor opposition in Bari and Palermo, and now they must pick themselves up for the challenge of Inter without Zlatan Ibrahimovic, still stupidly suspended, still endlessly frustrating. If you add to that the fact that Antonio Cassano and Alexandre Pato are both carrying injuries, and that Kevin Prince Boateng and Clarence Seedorf will be the men trying to provide the creativity behind the strikers, then you veer towards it being Inter's night.
But then you consider the suspension of Lucio and the possible absences of both Andrea Ranocchia and Cristian Chivu, and you can't help but wonder about Inter defensively. On the face of it, it looks an even game, with Inter just having the edge. And the market reflects exactly that, with Inter at [2.72] and Milan at [3.0], but I think Inter are a bit more superior than that price suggests, and so I'm happy to back them. The over/under 2.5 goals market is also interesting.
This is a fixture which rarely finishes 0-0, and can be thrilling, and although Milan won 1-0 earlier in the season, I think that we'll see very different approaches here. Leonardo will send Inter out to win, knowing that this is their best chance of turning the title race decisively in their favour, while Milan might start tentatively, but a goal will open this game up and two talented strike forces could end up producing quite a match. I fancy Inter to win, and possibly dish out a season changing thrashing (remember they won this fixture 4-0 last season). If that happens, then bets on the Nerazzurri and on the "overs" will both come good.
Recommendation:
Back Inter to beat Milan @ [2.72]
Back over 2.5 Goals in Milan v Inter @ [2.22]
Lecce v Udinese
Udinese are the other fly in the title ointment, and if they'd only started their magnificent run earlier, then I'm sure they'd be champions. They're trading at [19.5] now, having touched a high of [1000.00], and I fully expect them to go to the seaside and beat Lecce, and possibly move to within four points of the lead. Regular readers of this column (both of you) will know that there's a simple way to profit with Udinese which has worked pretty well for us since the turn of the season and there's certainly no reason to desert it now.
You should be very wary of backing over 2.5 goals in Udinese home games, as they can struggle to score against teams who sit back and defend against them, but you should be very keen to back over 2.5 goals when Udinese are away from home and able to counter attack and to utilise space. Lecce will let them do that, and the nine consecutive Udinese away games which produced at least three goals will almost certainly turn into ten on Sunday afternoon. Udinese beat Lecce 4-0 at the Friuli earlier in the season, and we could very well see the kind of score that we had when Lecce played Palermo at the Via Del Mare in February. It was 4-2 to the visitors then, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if we saw something similar on Sunday, so I'm happy to go for over 3.5 goals, rather than stick with the [1.8] about over 2.5. And if other results go their way, then the outsiders from Udine will be shortened even more for an unlikely title win.
Recommendation Over 3.5 goals in Lecce v Udinese @ [3.1]
Finally a word to the Serie A schedulers. Given that we have so many weekends without a big fixture in this league, did we really have to cram the Milan derby, Roma v Juve and Napoli v Lazio into the same weekend? It makes for a feast this Saturday and Sunday, but those games would have brightened up a couple of dark January Sundays. For what it's worth, I think that Roma will beat Juve and Napoli and Lazio will draw. And all of that will play into the hands of both Milan clubs....and Udinese!
It's a match that could have even more impact on the Serie A title race than usual and as ever, the tactics and the players named in the starting eleven will make a huge difference to the outcome. Michael Cox...
He's the Marmite of European football - you either love him or hate him. Yes, Zlatan Ibrahimovic is an enigma, but his performances over the next few weeks could decide where the Serie A title ends up....
Udinese are bidding for a Champions League place but can struggling Catania disrupt their form? Meanwhile, Milan head to Palermo in search of a vital three points. Dave Farrar selects the best bets....
No comments:
Post a Comment