Opta Stats: Early goals for Bayern Munich, none at all for Inter

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Until last week, it looked like Mario Gomez would challenge Lionel Messi to be Champions League top scorer

"Mario Gomez has scored 14 goals in his last 12 Champions League appearances (excluding qualifiers)."

Michael Lintorn has looked over the Opta stats and found reasons for Bayern Munich fans to be optimistic, but very few positives omens for Inter...

Bayern Munich v FC Basel

Nine of Bayern's 11 goals have been netted in the first half, the highest proportion in the Champions League this season (82%)
This stat suggests that the chunky odds usually offered on the first half producing more goals than the second 45 are well worth taking. Further support for such a wager is provided by the fact that nine of the 13 goals at the Allianz Arena in the Champions League this season have come before the break.

Mario Gomez has scored 14 goals in his last 12 Champions League appearances (excluding qualifiers)
And the Bundesliga's top scorer fired three past Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga on Saturday to draw a line under a rare four-game drought, the first of those coming as early as the fifth minute. The German international grabbed the opener in two of his side's three home encounters in the group stage.

Inter v Marseille

Marseille have never scored more than once in their 15 encounters against Italian opposition in Europe (excluding Intertoto Cup)
This is one of several under 2.5 goals indicators, another one being that Marseille have the worst shooting accuracy figure of any team in the last 16, with just 37% of their efforts hitting the target. Their last six matches have all featured two goals or fewer, as have four of Inter's last half-dozen.

Marseille have kept nine clean sheets in their last 13 Champions League games
Inter have lost their last three clashes with Didier Deschamps' men 1-0, and their chances of finally scoring against them this time aren't great given that they have been shut out in seven of their last ten fixtures in all competitions. They haven't struck in the first 70 minutes of any of their last seven.

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Mario Gomez to score first against FC Basel @ [3.8]
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Did CSKA Moscow's late equaliser in Russia merely delay the inevitable, or can they stun Real Madrid at the Bernabeu? Here's the Opta take on things......

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Bayern Munich's fierce European home record suggests that this round-of-16 tie is far from finished despite FC Basel's shock first-leg triumph......

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Opta Stats: Inter v Marseille

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

It has been a stressful few months for Inter's likable coach Claudio Ranieri

Inter's first win in ten away to Chievo on Friday prompted tears of joy from Claudio Ranieri. Will there be even wilder celebrations against Marseille?

Marseille have beaten Inter by the same scoreline of 1-0 in each of their three meetings (the previous two games in the 2003-04 UEFA Cup quarter-final).

Marseille are the only team with a 100% record against Inter in European competition (excluding qualifiers).

Marseille have never scored more than once in their 15 encounters against Italian opposition in Europe (excluding Intertoto Cup).

Inter have failed to win their last three Champions League games (one draw, two defeats).

The Nerazzurri have won just one of their last five Champions League home games, losing four times.

Marseille are the only team to have won a Champions League game this season after going two goals behind (following their crucial 3-2 win over Borussia Dortmund).

Inter have won four and lost seven of their last 12 Champions League matches.

Marseille have kept nine clean sheets in their last 13 Champions League games.

Four out of OM's last five Champions League goals have come from dead-ball situations.

Marseille have won four of their last six Champions League games on the road (one draw, one defeat).

Inter's last four Champions League goals have been scored by four different Argentine players (Samuel, Milito, Álvarez and Cambiasso).

Andre Ayew has scored 50% of Marseille's Champions League goals this season (four out of eight).

Marseille have recorded the worst shooting accuracy amongst teams who have qualified for the last 16, hitting the target with just 37% of their attempts.

Michael Lintorn has looked over the Opta stats and found reasons for Bayern Munich fans to be optimistic, but very few positives omens for Inter......

Did CSKA Moscow's late equaliser in Russia merely delay the inevitable, or can they stun Real Madrid at the Bernabeu? Here's the Opta take on things......

Bayern Munich's fierce European home record suggests that this round-of-16 tie is far from finished despite FC Basel's shock first-leg triumph......

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Serie A Betting: No reason why Catania can't go and stun Inter

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Claudio Ranieri's early honeymoon period at Inter has come to an end and Wesley Sneijder may move on as well if Inter's fortunes don't improve

"They were dreadful in Naples, and the big problem from week to week with Claudio Ranieri’s side is that they don’t seem to have any set pattern of play. Players seem unsure, the ball is moved too slowly, and they are vulnerable on the counter attack."

The Rome derby is the biggest match of the weekend in terms of Media interest and there's a decent bet there but the better bet may lie with Catana's trip to Inter Milan. Claudio Ranieri's days are already numbered and the vistors could deliver the killer blow.

Roma v Lazio

It's hard to know what to make of Roma under Luis Enrique. There are times when you watch them and feel that the young Spanish coach really has something, when they play with tempo and energy and look capable of overwhelming even the best sides.

And yet there are other occasions, last week's capitulation against Atalanta for example, when the players look as if they're meeting for the first time. Daniele De Rossi absence through indiscipline was a huge factor in last week's defeat, and his presence in the centre of the midfield is always key for Roma.

He's back for this weekend's derby, and Roma are [2.28] to see off a Lazio side which has struggled both on and off the field in the last few weeks. Edy Reja is still in charge despite offering an angry resignation and has a terrible injury list to deal with.

Lazio's tiredness and evident lack of team spirit has been a reason to oppose them in recent weeks, and that proved profitable until they managed a 1-0 win against Fiorentina last time out.

That was a solid performance, and makes me swerve Roma for the derby. I'm not suggesting that Lazio are a bet at [3.75], but I do feel that they have enough about them to avoid defeat against a team as unpredictable as Roma. That makes the draw a decent, if small stakes, bet for the game of the weekend, with Roma too short and Lazio more than capable of frustrating them.

Recommendation Roma v Lazio draw @ [3.4]

Lecce v Genoa

Every Serie A fan's favourite lunatic, Serse Cosmi, is in the process of doing an extraordinary job at Lecce.

Two wins in a row have taken them to within two points of safety, and for a team which looked relegated at Christmas, there is suddenly hope. Cosmi may not be Arrigo Sacchi in terms of his tactical astuteness, but what he has always had is the ability to motivate players, and make them absolutely sure of the job that he expects them to do.

This has worked well at the Via Del Mare, and now Lecce face a Genoa team which looks shorn of confidence, and whose awful defensive record gives Lecce a chance of making it three wins in a row.

Genoa have conceded more goals than any other team in Serie A this season, quite an achievement when you consider the presence of teams like Novara in the division, and in their last five away games, they have shipped 19 goals. That makes them vulnerable to the likes of Juan Cuadrado and Luis Muriel, and the way that this game is likely to be set up tactically means that goals seem certain. Lecce are no great shakes defensively either, and these two could serve up an open and entertaining game. Over 3.5 goals in attractively priced at [3.5], and I'm happy to take a view that the Via Del Mare may be the place to be on Sunday afternoon.

Recommendation Back Over 3.5 goals in Lecce v Genoa @ [3.5]

Inter v Catania

Inter's woes continued with a fourth consecutive defeat last weekend at Napoli, and this Sunday night they face an in-form Catania team, hoping to add themselves to the names of Novara and Bologna as recent improbable winners at the San Siro.

Catania are [5.5] to get the three points, with Inter trading at [1.76], and I just can't see any justification to make Inter odds-on.

They were dreadful in Naples, and the big problem from week to week with Claudio Ranieri's side is that they don't seem to have any set pattern of play. Players seem unsure, the ball is moved too slowly, and they are vulnerable on the counter attack.

Catania have won three of their last four, and the vibrant way that they play will put Inter under severe pressure. Inter have failed to score in their last five matches, and even though Ranieri has been assured that his job is safe no matter what the outcome on Sunday, I'm not sure that he'll be able to survive another humiliation. You can argue that Catania had to wait until last weekend to get their first win away from home, but I see that result as a positive, and while a lay of Inter is tempting, there's no reason not to take a big price about Catania coming good.

Recommendation Back Catania to beat Inter @ [5.5]

Michael Lintorn takes an early look at Sunday's Rome derby, which could have a major impact on the battle for Italy's final Champions League place......

Seven defeats in eight have made it clear that Inter are in desperate need of rebuilding both on and off-the-field......

The top two clubs in Serie A go head-to-head on Saturday night and Dave Farrar is surprised to see Juventus so generously priced for the win....

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Serie A Betting: Disjointed Inter surely set for a hectic summer

Italian Football / Michael Lintorn / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Wesley Sneijder is Inter's biggest star, yet they fare better without him

"It will be this summer’s appointment that decides if the rot stops, and only if whoever is hired is allowed a greater input in transfer policy, which has been a shambles post-Mourinho."

Seven defeats in eight have made it clear that Inter are in desperate need of rebuilding both on and off-the-field...

According to popular football parlance, a month is a long time in football, but if that's the case then it has to be considered an absolute eternity at Inter.

In late January, Claudio Ranieri was a hero and a scudetto push was expected. Five weeks on, they are seventh, nine points off the Champions League places, staring at a first silverware-free season since 2003-04 and talk has turned to who will be their fifth coach since Jose Mourinho left in 2010.

It is tough to gauge how much blame should be handed to Ranieri, far from the first to struggle with this squad and the mastermind of their finest winning streak since Mourinho's exit. However, seven losses in eight is difficult to survive at any level, let alone in Italy with Massimo Moratti as your boss.

His failure to find a solution to the problem posed by Wesley Sneijder's return has proven disastrous, and has led to the staggering statistic that Inter have taken only 12 points from 13 games with the playmaker, compared to 24 in the 12 that he missed.

This writer would have been tempted to keep him on the bench, letting Ranieri maintain the 4-4-2 that was working well, then switch to either 4-4-1-1 or 4-3-1-2 mid-match depending on if they were chasing or seeing things out.

Perhaps this idea is unrealistic, as a coach will get far more stick losing while ignoring his star man, but the alternative strategy, constantly altering formations and personnel in search of a winning formula, has gone just as badly. In Sunday's 1-0 defeat to Napoli, they even ended up with the three at the back that saw Gian Piero Gasperini hounded out in September.

Ranieri won't resign and it is unclear whether he will be axed now or given a chance to overturn the 1-0 first-leg deficit in their Champions League round-of-16 tie with Marseille. That's a [3.0] prospect and quite the challenge for a team who have fired seven blanks in their last eight fixtures.

Any change this term will likely be temporary, with a figurehead like Giuseppe Baresi, Luis Figo or Roberto Baggio stepping in. It will be this summer's appointment that decides if the rot stops, and only if whoever is hired is allowed a greater input in transfer policy, which has been a shambles post-Mourinho.

Assuming the endless Pep Guardiola gossip is as fanciful as it appears, Zenit St Petersburg's Luciano Spalletti looks the best candidate. He might not even want it, though it will be the end of the Russian season then too and - if he finishes first again [[1.46]] - it may feel like the right time to head home.

The top two clubs in Serie A go head-to-head on Saturday night and Dave Farrar is surprised to see Juventus so generously priced for the win....

Unsurprisingly, AC Milan's attempt to get Zlatan Ibrahimovic's ban cut so that he could face former club Juventus has failed, enhancing the Old Lady's chances in the fight for first......

Before Real Madrid fans get too excited about the prospect of Jose Mourinho's possible departure, they should look at the current state of the two clubs he managed previously. Inter Milan in particular, are in a whole world of trouble,...

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Serie A Betting: Inter the value, Udinese the super value

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 01 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Leonardo could be the one smiling come Saturday night

"And the market reflects exactly that, with Inter at [2.72] and Milan at [3.0], but I think Inter are a bit more superior than that price suggests, and so I’m happy to back them."

Dave Farrar looks ahead to the Milan derby where Inter look the bet and Udinese's away trip to Lecce. And you all know what that means.

At around 10pm on Saturday night we'll know: or at least we'll have a much clearer idea of which team will come out on top in one of the most intriguing Serie A races in years. If Inter win at San Siro on Saturday, then they will go to the top of the table for the first time since Leonardo took over, while if Milan emerge with a victory then they will be five points clear with seven games left and surely cruising to the title. At the moment Milan are [2.24] to win the Scudetto, having traded as low as [1.26], while Inter are [2.5}, having gone as high as [9.2]. And Napoli mustn't be forgotten either: they're trading at [8.0], and a draw in the derby could leave the way open for them to make a late run and steal the Scudetto away from San Siro.

Onto the game itself, and it's time to ponder that old footballing saying about the team which handles the pressure the best coming out on top. I know that will irritate many of you, but such has been the build up, and such will be the atmosphere, that it's particularly true here.

Milan have not been dealing well with the pressure of leading Serie A, and the Rossoneri appear to be crumbling just when it matters. Massimiliano Allegri's team have picked up just one point from their last two games, against poor opposition in Bari and Palermo, and now they must pick themselves up for the challenge of Inter without Zlatan Ibrahimovic, still stupidly suspended, still endlessly frustrating. If you add to that the fact that Antonio Cassano and Alexandre Pato are both carrying injuries, and that Kevin Prince Boateng and Clarence Seedorf will be the men trying to provide the creativity behind the strikers, then you veer towards it being Inter's night.

But then you consider the suspension of Lucio and the possible absences of both Andrea Ranocchia and Cristian Chivu, and you can't help but wonder about Inter defensively. On the face of it, it looks an even game, with Inter just having the edge. And the market reflects exactly that, with Inter at [2.72] and Milan at [3.0], but I think Inter are a bit more superior than that price suggests, and so I'm happy to back them. The over/under 2.5 goals market is also interesting.

This is a fixture which rarely finishes 0-0, and can be thrilling, and although Milan won 1-0 earlier in the season, I think that we'll see very different approaches here. Leonardo will send Inter out to win, knowing that this is their best chance of turning the title race decisively in their favour, while Milan might start tentatively, but a goal will open this game up and two talented strike forces could end up producing quite a match. I fancy Inter to win, and possibly dish out a season changing thrashing (remember they won this fixture 4-0 last season). If that happens, then bets on the Nerazzurri and on the "overs" will both come good.

Recommendation:

Back Inter to beat Milan @ [2.72]

Back over 2.5 Goals in Milan v Inter @ [2.22]

Lecce v Udinese

Udinese are the other fly in the title ointment, and if they'd only started their magnificent run earlier, then I'm sure they'd be champions. They're trading at [19.5] now, having touched a high of [1000.00], and I fully expect them to go to the seaside and beat Lecce, and possibly move to within four points of the lead. Regular readers of this column (both of you) will know that there's a simple way to profit with Udinese which has worked pretty well for us since the turn of the season and there's certainly no reason to desert it now.

You should be very wary of backing over 2.5 goals in Udinese home games, as they can struggle to score against teams who sit back and defend against them, but you should be very keen to back over 2.5 goals when Udinese are away from home and able to counter attack and to utilise space. Lecce will let them do that, and the nine consecutive Udinese away games which produced at least three goals will almost certainly turn into ten on Sunday afternoon. Udinese beat Lecce 4-0 at the Friuli earlier in the season, and we could very well see the kind of score that we had when Lecce played Palermo at the Via Del Mare in February. It was 4-2 to the visitors then, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if we saw something similar on Sunday, so I'm happy to go for over 3.5 goals, rather than stick with the [1.8] about over 2.5. And if other results go their way, then the outsiders from Udine will be shortened even more for an unlikely title win.

Recommendation Over 3.5 goals in Lecce v Udinese @ [3.1]

Finally a word to the Serie A schedulers. Given that we have so many weekends without a big fixture in this league, did we really have to cram the Milan derby, Roma v Juve and Napoli v Lazio into the same weekend? It makes for a feast this Saturday and Sunday, but those games would have brightened up a couple of dark January Sundays. For what it's worth, I think that Roma will beat Juve and Napoli and Lazio will draw. And all of that will play into the hands of both Milan clubs....and Udinese!

It's a match that could have even more impact on the Serie A title race than usual and as ever, the tactics and the players named in the starting eleven will make a huge difference to the outcome. Michael Cox...

He's the Marmite of European football - you either love him or hate him. Yes, Zlatan Ibrahimovic is an enigma, but his performances over the next few weeks could decide where the Serie A title ends up....

Udinese are bidding for a Champions League place but can struggling Catania disrupt their form? Meanwhile, Milan head to Palermo in search of a vital three points. Dave Farrar selects the best bets....

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Champions League Betting: Inter Milan v Bayern Munich

Champions League / James Eastham / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Super Mario, super form. Mario Gomez is a good bet on the 'to score' market

"Inter are a shadow of the side that won this competition last season although they’ve improved since Leonardo replaced Rafa Benitez as manager. Many of the players may be the same as last season but the side’s form has been unconvincing in European and domestic competition since the departure of Jose Mourinho. "

It's a repeat of last year's final but Inter aren't half the team they were and are up against a side who starteed poorly but are on a good run just now. James Eastham identifies the best betting options.

Introduction

Bayern goalkeeper Thomas Kraft and striker Mario Gomez ought to be fit. The pair picked up knocks against Mainz on Saturday.

Last season's two-goal Champions League final scorer Diego Milito looks set to miss out with a hamstring strain. Samuel Eto'o and Goran Pandev are expected to start up front. January signing Giampaolo Pazzini is ineligible.

Match Odds

Inter are a shadow of the side that won this competition last season although they've improved since Leonardo replaced Rafa Benitez as manager. Many of the players may be the same as last season but the side's form has been unconvincing in European and domestic competition since the departure of Jose Mourinho. Inter finished second in their opening-phase pool behind Champions League debutants Tottenham, and lie 3rd in Serie A, 5pts behind leaders AC Milan.

Bayern are in excellent form, winning six of their last eight Bundesliga matches to climb from seventh to second in the table. Much of this is down to the return from injury of Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben. The pair have been in sparkling form, with RIbery having a particular motivation on Wednesday night: he missed last season's Champions League final against Inter through suspension.

The pace and precision of Bayern's breaks gives the visitors as much chance as Inter of winning the game. I'd back Bayern at [3.4], or lay Inter at [2.3] if you want to cover the draw.

Inter are [2.1] to qualify, with Bayern [1.83]. Bayern look the better bet to me.

Both Teams to Score

If, as expected, Gomez is fit, Bayern's chances of scoring an away goal will improve: the giant Germany international has been in fantastic form this season, scoring 18 times in 22 league games and adding six in six Champions League appearances. A Bayern attack comprising Gomez, Ribery and Robben will be confident of getting on the scoresheet against an Inter defence that has conceded in 15 of its last 17 league games.

Inter are a free-scoring side, too, as their tally of 33 goals in their last 13 league goals shows. Back 'Yes' in Both Teams to Score market at [1.8].

To Score

Gomez would be my selection considering his outstanding form in the competition and this season in general. He's available at [3.2].

Best Bet: Back 'Yes' in Both Teams to Score market @ [1.8].

Other Recommended Bets: Lay Inter @ [2.3] and back Mario Gomez to score anytime @ [3.2].

It's a repeat of last year's final but Inter aren't half the team they were and are up against a side who starteed poorly but are on a good run just now. James Eastham identifies the best betting options....

Real Madrid have lost every game they have ever played at the Stade Gerland. Someone Special is needed if they are to do any better in Lyon on Tuesday night, says Tobias Gourlay....

There was upsets galore in week one of the round of 16 so how will the likes of Manchester United, Chelsea and Real Madrid fare this week? asks Matthew Walton....

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Serie A Betting: Roma to derail Inter from the title race

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 04 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mirko Vucinic is just the sort of player who can give Inter's defence real trouble this weekend

"It was Palermo’s movement that troubled Inter, and that makes the contribution of Mirko Vucinic crucial. If he fires, then I fancy Ranieri’s team. They certainly shouldn’t be the price that they currently are against a team who struggled to break down awful Bari on Thursday night. "

There's a big match this weekend involving two of the three sides who can realistically challenge AC Milan for the Serie A title. The winner will be in a strong position to test the Rossoneri and it may turn out to be outsiders Roma.

Inter v Roma

The only two teams who look like realistically challenging Milan for the Scudetto go head to head on Sunday night in a game which will define the rest of their seasons.

Had Napoli managed to win in Chievo on Wednesday, then you could add their name to the list, but I just don't see how they can recover from a blow like that, and it's down to Leonardo and Claudio Ranieri to throw down a challenge to Massimiliano Allegri. Both teams need Milan to slip up, but if they can win their games in hand, Roma could close to six points behind the Rossoneri, and Inter to four.

That equation makes Sunday crucial, and makes a draw of little use to either side. Given Inter's porous defence, and Leonardo's gung ho style, it's tempting to tip over 2.5 goals at [1.83], but there's so much riding on the game that I could see the ninety minutes being a little more stifling than people think.

Given the extent to which Inter have got away with it in recent weeks, though, I do think Roma are a bet at [4.1]. They'll miss Phillippe Mexes, but Inter look light at the back as well, and if Palermo can get to within a penalty miss and some bad defending of beating the Nerazzurri, then Roma can certainly do a job on them.

It was Palermo's movement that troubled Inter, and that makes the contribution of Mirko Vucinic crucial. If he fires, then I fancy Ranieri's team. They certainly shouldn't be the price that they currently are against a team who struggled to break down awful Bari on Thursday night.

Vucinic got the winner when Roma beat Inter back in September, and the visitors will have happy memories of winning here against Milan before the winter break. I just think that the style of the game suits Roma, and don't forget the joy they will derive if they can beat a team containing Giampaolo Pazzini. It was his goal for Sampdoria in Rome last season which effectively cost Roma the title. It could be a Roma win against Pazzini that ignites their challenge this time round. An if you want to take a chance at a bigger price, then now is the time to punt Roma for the title at [13.5]. They're no good things, but with Milan and Inter both overrated, there are worse bets.

Recommended Bet: Back Roma to beat Inter @ [4.1]

Lecce v Palermo

Anyone who gambles and indeed writes a column like this can fall foul of backing teams that have served them particularly well over the years, and a friend at work rather sarcastically asked if I fancied goals in the Inter against Palermo game last week.

He confidently told me that I had a blind spot about Palermo and that he's be selling goals on the spreads. My only regret was that the game only had five goals, rather than the seven or eight that it really should have produced, as I wanted to obliterate the smile from his his face, rather than simply wipe it off. I accept, though, that I have a blind spot for the men in pink (the "the" in that sentence is key), which is largely down to the amazing hospitality that you encounter when you visit the Renzo Barbera.

Smiling faces and impossibly beautiful women serving fresh espresso at half time will always win me over. Palermo are at Lecce on Sunday, and will still have bad memories of the extent to which Lecce pushed them when the sides met in Sicily.

Palermo trailed 2-0, and needed a late late equaliser to salvage a draw. This should be a similarly open game, with Lecce unlikely to sit back, and Palermo able to counter attack and over run Gigi Di Canio's team. Both teams will probably score, but I'll give that option a swerve at [1.7] or thereabout, and instead will go with Palermo to fire again, and be vulnerable enough defensively to make this an entertaining game. I expected over 2.5 goals to be round about the [1.8] mark, which makes the [1.98] which is available, a bit of value.

Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals in Lecce v Palermo @ [1.98]

Two final thoughts for this week. One is that Cesena might be overpriced to cause a massive upset in Naples at [17.0]. Napoli were dreadful in midweek and are looking very leggy at the moment. (You should be looking to back an excellent Villarreal side to beat them in the Europa League).

And the second is that, if Andy Carroll is worth 35 million pounds, then what price Giampaolo Pazzini? Well, the answer is 11.5 million which he instantly started to repay with his remarkable substitute performance for Inter against Palermo. The perception that Italian strikers don't travel well to England is being confirmed by Mario Balotelli, but surely Spurs or Liverpool should have taken a punt on Pazzini.

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