Italian Football 
/ Dave Farrar / 04 February 2011 / Leave a Comment Mirko Vucinic is just the sort of player who can give Inter's defence real trouble this weekend
"It was Palermo’s movement that troubled Inter, and that makes the contribution of Mirko Vucinic crucial. If he fires, then I fancy Ranieri’s team. They certainly shouldn’t be the price that they currently are against a team who struggled to break down awful Bari on Thursday night. "
There's a big match this weekend involving two of the three sides who can realistically challenge AC Milan for the Serie A title. The winner will be in a strong position to test the Rossoneri and it may turn out to be outsiders Roma.
Inter v Roma
The only two teams who look like realistically challenging Milan for the Scudetto go head to head on Sunday night in a game which will define the rest of their seasons.
Had Napoli managed to win in Chievo on Wednesday, then you could add their name to the list, but I just don't see how they can recover from a blow like that, and it's down to Leonardo and Claudio Ranieri to throw down a challenge to Massimiliano Allegri. Both teams need Milan to slip up, but if they can win their games in hand, Roma could close to six points behind the Rossoneri, and Inter to four.
That equation makes Sunday crucial, and makes a draw of little use to either side. Given Inter's porous defence, and Leonardo's gung ho style, it's tempting to tip over 2.5 goals at [1.83], but there's so much riding on the game that I could see the ninety minutes being a little more stifling than people think.
Given the extent to which Inter have got away with it in recent weeks, though, I do think Roma are a bet at [4.1]. They'll miss Phillippe Mexes, but Inter look light at the back as well, and if Palermo can get to within a penalty miss and some bad defending of beating the Nerazzurri, then Roma can certainly do a job on them.
It was Palermo's movement that troubled Inter, and that makes the contribution of Mirko Vucinic crucial. If he fires, then I fancy Ranieri's team. They certainly shouldn't be the price that they currently are against a team who struggled to break down awful Bari on Thursday night.
Vucinic got the winner when Roma beat Inter back in September, and the visitors will have happy memories of winning here against Milan before the winter break. I just think that the style of the game suits Roma, and don't forget the joy they will derive if they can beat a team containing Giampaolo Pazzini. It was his goal for Sampdoria in Rome last season which effectively cost Roma the title. It could be a Roma win against Pazzini that ignites their challenge this time round. An if you want to take a chance at a bigger price, then now is the time to punt Roma for the title at [13.5]. They're no good things, but with Milan and Inter both overrated, there are worse bets.
Recommended Bet: Back Roma to beat Inter @ [4.1]
Lecce v Palermo
Anyone who gambles and indeed writes a column like this can fall foul of backing teams that have served them particularly well over the years, and a friend at work rather sarcastically asked if I fancied goals in the Inter against Palermo game last week.
He confidently told me that I had a blind spot about Palermo and that he's be selling goals on the spreads. My only regret was that the game only had five goals, rather than the seven or eight that it really should have produced, as I wanted to obliterate the smile from his his face, rather than simply wipe it off. I accept, though, that I have a blind spot for the men in pink (the "the" in that sentence is key), which is largely down to the amazing hospitality that you encounter when you visit the Renzo Barbera.
Smiling faces and impossibly beautiful women serving fresh espresso at half time will always win me over. Palermo are at Lecce on Sunday, and will still have bad memories of the extent to which Lecce pushed them when the sides met in Sicily.
Palermo trailed 2-0, and needed a late late equaliser to salvage a draw. This should be a similarly open game, with Lecce unlikely to sit back, and Palermo able to counter attack and over run Gigi Di Canio's team. Both teams will probably score, but I'll give that option a swerve at [1.7] or thereabout, and instead will go with Palermo to fire again, and be vulnerable enough defensively to make this an entertaining game. I expected over 2.5 goals to be round about the [1.8] mark, which makes the [1.98] which is available, a bit of value.
Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals in Lecce v Palermo @ [1.98]
Two final thoughts for this week. One is that Cesena might be overpriced to cause a massive upset in Naples at [17.0]. Napoli were dreadful in midweek and are looking very leggy at the moment. (You should be looking to back an excellent Villarreal side to beat them in the Europa League).
And the second is that, if Andy Carroll is worth 35 million pounds, then what price Giampaolo Pazzini? Well, the answer is 11.5 million which he instantly started to repay with his remarkable substitute performance for Inter against Palermo. The perception that Italian strikers don't travel well to England is being confirmed by Mario Balotelli, but surely Spurs or Liverpool should have taken a punt on Pazzini.
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