Italian Football 
/ Dave Farrar / 25 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Antonio Cassano (ineligible in Europe) returns to the side but it may not be enough to beat Napoli
"I’m tempted by the [5.3] which is available about Napoli causing a shock, but without Lavezzi they’re likely to be happier with a draw than they might have been."
There's a long way to go yet in this season's Serie A race and they may well drop points as soon as Monday night when Napoli come calling. Elsewhere Udinese can spring a bit of an upset of their own.
Palermo v Udinese
The Palermo president Maurizio Zamparini has been winning friends and influencing people again this week, telling the press in Sicily that the recent poor run of the men in pink and black is "all the coach's fault."
Delio Rossi and the Udinese boss Francesco Guidolin will be able to compare notes on Signor Zamparini, as Guidolin has been fired three times from the Palermo hotseat. Guidolin is in the happier position at the moment, with his Udinese side the team of 2011 so far, and now that Alexis Sanchez is back from suspension, they're likely to give Palermo a real run for their money. Fabrizio Miccoli is out with an injury for the home team, and with Palermo having lost their last two matches in disappointing fashion, Udinese may just be a bit of value at [3.5] to go to the Renzo Barbera and win.
Recommendation: Back Udinese to beat Palermo @ [3.5]
Roma v Parma
While European football fans were concentrating on the Champions League in midweek, there was a significant and slightly surprising result in Serie A, but it's one that will have passed many people by.
In their first game since Claudio Ranieri left the club, Roma went to Bologna and won 1-0 in what was a pretty dull game. The result was significant because Roma don't really do dull, having conceded fourteen goals in their previous four Serie A matches, but in a new formation, and with a new impetus, they despatched a decent Bologna side fairly comfortably.
It seems too simplistic to say that senior players had fallen out with Ranieri, and that the group had stopped trying, but rumours coming out of the club suggest that this was the case, and that Roma might be set for a focused and successful end of the season. Caretaker manager Vincenzo Montella is organised, intelligent, and popular, and that might be enough.
Roma should certainly be too good for Parma, who have hidden from the outside world this week after a desperate 2-2 draw against Cesena, and they're only four points away from relegation after a terrible 2011 so far. It could well be a second clean sheet in a row for Roma, and they're always dangerous going forward, so rate good value at odds against to give the visitors a goal start on the Asian Handicap.
Recommendation ROMA -1 on Asian Handicap @ [2.1]
Milan v Napoli
The Monday evening game in Serie A is unquestionably the match of the weekend, and quite possibly the ninety minutes that will define the rest of the season. Milan go into the weekend three points clear of Napoli, and five points clear of Inter, although by the time that these two play on Monday night, Inter could well have reduced the gap to two.
Milan are no shoo-ins to win the title, and this is the first of seven really difficult games which face them on a difficult run-in. The Rossoneri are definitely too short at [1.74] to finish the season as champions, with a trip to Juventus to come next week, and the Milan derby to follow not long afterwards.
The game is being played on Monday night because of Napoli's Europa League match against Villareal, and once the initial disappointment of being eliminated has abated, the Neapolitans will probably see that their ability to focus on Serie A is a good thing.
Tottenham exposed Milan's occasional lack of inspiration in front of goal, and Napoli are able to do likewise, although they will be seriously hampered by the absense of the suspended Ezequiel Lavezzi. I'm tempted by the [5.3] which is available about Napoli causing a shock, but without Lavezzi they're likely to be happier with a draw than they might have been.
Milan are still missing Andrea Pirlo, but those of you who were unimpressed by them in the Champions League should remember that the Serie A version of Milan features Antonio Cassano, who can provide the creativity which they so sorely lacked against Spurs, but is ineligible to play in Europe. The Napoli win can't go unbacked purely on value terms (after all both Roma and Juve have won at Milan this season), but it should be supported with a bet on under 2.5 goals at [1.83]. Napoli will stifle for a half, and then try and sprit away a win. They may well succeed, but I doubt that it will be pretty to watch.
Recommendation: Under 2.5 Goals in Milan v Napoli @ [1.83]
Napoli to win @ [5.3]
There's a long way to go yet in this season's Serie A race and they may well drop points as soon as Monday night when Napoli come calling. Elsewhere Udinese can spring a bit of an upset of their own....
The Tinkerman has gone but whoever replaces him at Roma - and it might yet be the current Chelsea boss - will need to overhaul an ageing squad, says Ben Lyttleton....
Both Fiorentina and Sampdoria look sharp in front of goal so it's worth backing overs when they meet this weekend, says Dave Farrar. Meanwhile, how fortunes have changed since the last time Udinese met Brescia and an entertaining Saturday night...
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