Showing posts with label defeat. Show all posts
Showing posts with label defeat. Show all posts

August 26, 2014

US Open 2014 Men's Betting: Back Karlovic to defeat Nieminen in battle of the veterans

"Nieminen has a 6-15 record on outdoor hard courts against the big servers in my list of players and he's lost 11 of the last 15 on all surfaces."

Back Karlovic to beat Nieminen at 1.625/8

It was a great start to the fortnight in New York for tennis expert Sean Calvert, who made a substantial profit from his tips on Monday. He's back to pick the best bets in the US Open on Tuesday...

The US Open began in profitable fashion yesterday, as all three of my bets were winners, plus Nick Kyrgios from my 'potential upsets' article.

Novak Djokovic starred for me by winning the opener 6-1 over Diego Schwartzmann at odds of 5.04/1, while Michael Llodra was an odds-against winner and Andreas Seppi also won comfortably.

Llodra and Seppi were drifters in the market too, which made it even better and for my first bet today I have to side with Ivo Karlovic over Jarkko Nieminen.

Amazingly, for two gnarly tour veterans nearing the end of their careers this pair have never met, but the Finn does struggle against big servers and he looks like he hasn't got that much longer left on tour to me.

Nieminen has a 6-15 record on outdoor hard courts against the big servers in my list of players and he's lost 11 of the last 15 on all surfaces.

His serve isn't powerful enough and second serve is weak, which puts him at a disadvantage in tie breaks and tight moments in matches and I think the 1.625/8 about Karlovic is fair enough in hot and quick conditions.

Two at bigger prices that I like today are Andreas Haider-Maurer and Borna Coric against Roberto Bautista Agut and Lukas Rosol respectively.

RBA has been in no sort of form since a very hectic summer and he may be feeling the effects of that at the moment after poor showings in both of his hard court events in North America.

Haider-Maurer sprang a surprise here last year by beating Ernests Gulbis and although he's more at home on clay he can test out RBA and see if there are any weaknesses and injury/fitness concerns there.

Rosol is on a high right now after winning the title in Winston-Salem, despite appearing to not fancy it at all in his first match, but he's never won a match at the US Open so far in his career.

Today he faces a young player I really like in Coric, who can go places and perhaps surprise a few people here with his game.

Rosol is not one to trust by any means and he looks short today to me, with the 3.55n/a about Coric a potentially decent investment on a Cash Out basis.

Elsewhere, Wayne Odesnik takes on Kei Nishikori in the only one of my 'upsets' playing today and much of the value has gone in that one, but Cash Out backers have already made some money, with Odesnik a 4.03/1 shot now from 6.05/1.

Recommended Bets
Back Karlovic to beat Nieminen at 1.625/8
Back Haider Maurer to win a set at 2.26/5

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Coric to beat Rosol at 3.55n/a

Profit based on £10 stake per bet = + £984.60


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April 26, 2013

Lee Dixon: Gunners gamble should pay off with a defeat of United

"From my experience it is an entirely human reaction to take your foot off the gas and relax a bit after winning the league. We went to Liverpool for a midweek match after winning the title in 1998 and were spanked 4-0! All of a sudden the knocks and fatigue were harder to ignore and the mind drifted to the beach that summer."

Back Arsenal to win @ 2.285/4

Manchester United wrapped up the Premier League title on Monday night and punters have been rushing to back top four-chasing Arsenal to win on Sunday afternoon. Lee Dixon is joining them...

There's been a bit of a gamble on Arsenal to win this game since Manchester United secured yet another Premier League title on Monday night - and I think those backers might be on to something.
The thinking behind the bet is that United will have a lost a little of their edge since achieving their last remaining major goal of the season. 

From my experience it is an entirely human reaction to take your foot off the gas and relax a bit after winning the league. We went to Liverpool for a midweek match after winning the title in 1998 and were spanked 4-0! Yes, we had enjoyed a celebration or two, but it wasn't just that. All of a sudden the knocks and fatigue were harder to ignore and the mind drifted to the beach that summer. We lost to Aston Villa in the next match before rounding out the season with a win over Newcastle. 

United, of course, are chasing Chelsea's record points haul of 95, achieved in 2004/05, but that may not be such a strong motivator as winning a league title. We'll see. 

Sir Alex may switch the personnel around in a bid to keep his team fresh and playing at a high level but one man who I think we will see is Monday night's hat-trick hero, Robin van Persie. The Dutch ace will relish going back to his old club and I suspect Fergie will play him if that is the case.

It would be nice to think he'll get a good reception from the Arsenal faithful after more than eight years of service in the shirt, but there are a lot of bitter people in the stands because he left and, worse still, went to United.  

For me, the way to go about it would be to give him a round of applause and then get on with supporting your own team because a win in this match would go a long way to securing Champions League football next year. With all due respect to the Gunners' opponents after this game - QPR, Wigan and Newcastle - they don't make the most intimidating fixture list. 

Arsenal have done the hard work in the last few months, putting together a very strong run of results to sit in third place ahead of this game. They are in good form, score plenty at home and need the points more than United. A fast start is essential on Sunday afternoon. If United's minds aren't focused, Arsenal could soon hold a lead and the extra desire should take them to a big win. 

They'll have to do that without Oliver Giroud, who is suspended until the last game of the season, and I expect to see Theo Walcott upfront. His pace is a huge danger to United and I fancy Theo will grab his chance to stake a claim for the forward role on a permanent basis. 

His skills should contribute to an entertaining encounter and it's not hard to envisage the over 2.5 goal barrier will be breached. 

Recommended Bets 
Back Arsenal to win @ 2.285/4
Back Walcott to score @ 2.915/8 
Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.84/5 

As Lee says, as soon as the goals started going in on Monday night, Manchester United began to drift in the match odds. In my opinion there's no value backing Arsenal to win this one. Under normal circumstances, I would have Arsenal about 2.8 to win this game but they are currently 2.28. I can’t back them BUT can understand why people will.

Arsenal are yet to beat a side in the top four home or away this season - their 5-2 win against Tottenham is their only victory against a top six side! However, in seven games against the current top six, five have seen over 2.5 goals and six have seen both teams scoring. I will be looking at the correct score and overs markets - having a saver on 1-1 @ 8.0 before the game starts and then getting on over 2.5 goals IF it reaches 2.1 in running.

I fully agree with Lee – it feels like Manchester United have a habit of switching off once the league title has been secured. I also think there's a chance Arsenal might benefit from the possible absence of Robin van Persie. I’m not sure he’ll want to rub his title success in the faces of Arsenal fans, and Luis Suarez’s suspension means he’s got the Golden Boot wrapped up thanks to his hat-trick at Villa Park.

Arsenal’s defence has improved significantly since Thomas Vermaelen was dropped following the horror show at White Hart Lane, and after three clean sheets in their previous six games, 3.8 is a decent price for another against a half-hearted United.

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March 3, 2012

Lee Dixon: Black Cats defeat in the bag

Premier League RSS / / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Demba Ba showed against Manchester United that he's often at his best in the biggest matches

Demba Ba showed against Manchester United that he's often at his best in the biggest matches

"But I’m edging towards Newcastle in the match odds. They have the firepower and the Black Cats might just encounter another blip after a stunning run."

Sunderland have improved massively under Martin O'Neill but this Newcastle side have been far more consistent over the course of the season and with a little help from Demba Ba, should make home advantage count, says Lee Dixon.

Match Odds

I talked to Alan Pardew on Match of the Day 2 last week and he had an interesting take on his side's 2-2 draw with Wolves. Pards said that the solitary point they picked up after 90 minutes might get Newcastle where they want to be at the end of the season - a glass-half-full guy if ever there was one!

Pardew gave his players the Monday off following the game and that adult approach could be just what the team needs after a disappointing result.

In fierce local rivals Sunderland, they are playing a side that suffered a painful weekend themselves, coming unstuck at West Brom in dramatic fashion, after a good run.
Regardless of that 4-0 defeat, Martin O'Neill has done a fantastic job since taking the helm at the Stadium of Light. His team are in a very decent position and could even push on for a European spot. In a strange way, I suspect that Pardew would have preferred to face the Black Cats when they were on the crest of a wave, as Martin O'Neill will have his players fully fired up for this one.

But I'm edging towards Newcastle in the match odds. They have the firepower and the Black Cats might just encounter another blip after a stunning run. The Opta stats back up the fact the hosts have had the upper hand in this fixture in recent times: Newcastle have won eight, drawn five and lost just one of the last 14 Premier League games against Sunderland.

At [2.22] I'm prepared to back the Toon for home win number eight of the season.

To Score

Demba Ba has had a fantastic season upfront for Newcastle and he's been joined in attack by fellow countryman Papiss Cisse, who has been most impressive in the four games since his arrival. Full of effort and energy, Cisse has fully deserved his two Premier League goals with his all-action displays.

However, he is a slight doubt for the match and I see Ba getting back amongst the goals himself. Against Manchester United he proved to us that he enjoys the big games and I fancy the Senegalese to score his 17th goal of the season on Sunday. As Opta say, Ba has not gone three league starts without a goal since joining Newcastle and I think he will get on the scoresheet again.

Booking Odds

This is generally a card-heavy affair with sendings off in the two of the last three, and I can't resist a dabble on nine points and above in the booking odds market
.
Recommended Bets

2pts Back Newcastle to win @ [2.22]
2pts Back Demba Ba to score @ [3.0]
2pts Back 9pts and above in Booking Odds @ [1.7]

Michael Cox says:

I'm expecting plenty of cards in this derby - there were six yellows and one red in the previous meeting between the two sides, and there could have been many more.

There are a couple of obvious players to back to pick up a card - Lee Cattermole is one, but Cheick Tiote strikes me as a walking yellow card here. He's picked up five yellows from 15 Premier League games this season, and was in good booking form at the African Cup of Nations, with three from his four games. Against Wolves last week he gave the ball away too much then had to stop counter-attacks, and I think he might be forced to break up Sunderland moves with fouls. So I'll back him to be shown a card at anything around [3.0].

It's difficult to predict the starting line-ups for this game, but that means a potentially exciting tactical battle, says Michael Cox...

Chelsea travel to the Hawthorns, the increasingly impressive Swansea are at Roberto Martinez's Wigan and Stoke play hosts to a Norwich side who can't stop scoring on the road. Let's see what Feizal Rahman and his Opta stats make of...

Table-toppers Manchester City are at home to Bolton, Aston Villa travel to relegation-threatened Blackburn and Everton visit out-of-form QPR. But what do Opta say ahead of the games?...


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February 2, 2012

Super Bowl Betting: Coughlin plots another defeat of old rival

Super Bowl RSS / / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Tom Coughlin has a habit of delivering when it matters most

Tom Coughlin has a habit of delivering when it matters most

"The trouble with Coughlin, is that he seldom gets the results in flashy fashion. Nor does he even get them consistently. Apart from when it matters most."

Romilly Evans profiles Giants coach, Tom Coughlin, who faces old adversary Bill Belichick in Sunday's big one looking to once again turn the odds on their head

Tom Coughlin is something of a maverick. Less the shiny, happy NFL coach of slick soundbites and slicker hair. More the gnarled, gritty war veteran of one too many tours of duty. The kind of pugnacious pooch you'd gladly let have a scamper round the park, but would never take to Crufts.

Fortunately for Coughlin, he plies he trade on the park, not a conformation show. Nevertheless, it's taken a while for fans and commentators alike to appreciate just what this somewhat unfashionable coach has to offer. Which is strange when you look at his credentials that reflect some impressive work at both collegiate and professional level.

The trouble with Coughlin, though, is that he seldom gets the results in flashy fashion. Nor does he even get them consistently. Apart from when it matters most. After a three-year spell at Boston College, Coughlin got the inaugural head coaching gig as the Jacksonville Jaguars where he led his charges to the AFC Championship Game in only their second year of existence. Pretty impressive on paper, but even then the doubters were circling after Coughlin posted a mere 9-7 in the regular season. The play-off push silenced them, as did the Jags' return trip to the Conference Championship in 1999. Coughlin was building a reputation for training teams to punch above their weight when it mattered most.

However, after a few more seasons mired in mediocrity, the knives were again out for Coughlin. A change of scenery to the New York Giants did little to arrest the slide, as the Big Blue fell to 6-10 in his first season. Still, Coughlin only needs a year to get his teeth into the root of a problem. And he again managed to work the oracle, qualifying for the post-season in successive 2004/5 campaigns via the Wildcard Game.

Not that the snipers had lowered their sights. Consecutive losses in their play-off openers (coupled to average regular seasons) were deemed too small a return for the Giants, in spite of a three-star teamsheet. And when that trend continued with the Giants losing the first two games of 2007, Coughlin was a dead man walking. But this stubborn 65-year-old was too stubborn to hear.

"I just kept the blinders on," he would later comment. His team would follow suit, refocusing and rebounding to six straight wins. They were back in play-off country against the odds.

The rest, of course, is history. The Giants blazed a trail of on-the-road upsets all the way to the Vince Lombardi trophy. Coughlin had done it again, taking an ordinary side to extraordinary heights. In short, he welded a team which was greater than the sum of its parts. It's become his trademark.

The 2007 Giants even confounded the stats (for so long Coughlin's enemy) by becoming one of the happy few to have bested the top two seeds in their conference en route to Super Bowl glory. They said it wouldn't be done again. At least that was until the 2011 Giants scraped into the play-offs, before blasting past the hot favourites Green Bay and edging out the No.2 seeds of San Francisco. Here was a pinch-coacher, if you will, whose players feasted on pressure and exceeded expectations.

Few know this better than his opposite number this Sunday, Bill Belichick. Coughlin and Belichick go back to 1988 and their days as assistant coaches for the Giants under the great Bill Parcells. Their combined stint culminated in 1999 Super Bowl victory and effectively foreshadowed their futures.

Small wonder then that the pair have enormous respect for one another. Belichick's path has been the easier of the two (as evidenced by five Super Bowls with the Pats, three victories and three Coach of The Year awards) but he is the first to praise Coughlin.

"Our time together was very exceptional," explained Belichick.

"He knows my moves better than most."

That line was eloquently articulated when the Coughlin's Giants shocked his Patriots in the 2007 Super Bowl and again at fortress Foxboro this season. As befits a future hall-of-famer, Belichick has of course had his successes over his old colleague, but those recent high-profile failures must have been hard to swallow. Banal statistics suggest there is no comparison between the two (silverware aside, Belichick holds a 65% win-percentage to Coughlin's 55%) but Belichick knows he's the man most likely to foil him on the big occasions.

Speaking of big occasions, it's the 100th year since that pesky iceberg struck down The Titanic.

Towering, impressive, supposedly unsinkable: read Belichick. Jagged, ice-cold in temperament, supposedly irrelevant: read Coughlin.

And if you want to read more, you can do a lot worse than Thomas Hardy: "As the smart ship grew in stature, grace, and hue; In shadowy silent distance grew the Iceberg too... They were bent by paths coincident; to become twin halves of one august event."

Events don't come more august than the Super Bowl. And while my mind is screaming New England, Coughlin could yet repeat history and return to break Belichick's heart. Not to mention my handicap bet.

There's history between these two, says Andy Richmond, but while everyone is looking at Super Bowl XLII the most relevant match-up to be looking at came in week nine of this season......

Romilly Evans argues that Tom Brady must win this Super Bowl if he is to ever be mentioned alongside his idol, Joe Montana...

Fourteen of the last 34 Super Bowls have been played indoors and that simple dynamic can make a big difference on how a game pans out. Richard O'Hagan explains all...


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January 23, 2012

Kenny Dalglish is honest if nothing else after Bolton defeat

Premier League RSS / / 22 January 2012 / 3 Comments

Kenny Dalglish has spent a lot more money than his predecessor Roy Hodgson but results haven't been that much better

Kenny Dalglish has spent a lot more money than his predecessor Roy Hodgson but results haven't been that much better

"It should be pointed out, though, that Dalglish’s untouchability does present problems of its own, for neither should the Reds’ coach be exempt from all culpability."

Liverpool's season suffered a huge setback with defeat at Bolton yesterday but Kenny Dalglish pulled no punches when it came to laying the blame on his players. He may be honest but he needs to start winning some matches, says Richard Aikman.

Kenny Dalglish has come in for a good deal of criticism of late. There is no question that his public position over the Luis Suarez affair was unacceptable, but the Liverpool manager should be commended for his unsparing public criticism of his players following their abject capitulation at Bolton Saturday night.

Liverpool, (now a well-priced [5.6] to finish the season in sixth place were outplayed, out-thought and outfought by a club that have spent most of the campaign languishing at the nether end of the division and who, before last night, had mustered just one league victory at home all campaign. Afterwards, it was only natural to expect the blame to be levelled at the referee or perhaps his assistant, such is the present day norm for match-day reactions. Arsene Wenger was a case in point last weekend when he tried to put Arsenal's deserved 3-2 defeat by Swansea down to a match official who had made "strange decisions" and a penalty award he described as "a complete imagination".

How refreshing it was, then, to hear a Premier League manager for once giving the supporters the benefit of some intelligence by telling it as it was. "We've got to look at ourselves and if that's the level (the players) expect to play then they'll not be here long," he said.

When offered the chance to explain the result away with a penalty appeal that went unheeded, he added: "That's not the problem. The problem starts with your attitude and your approach to the game and if that's not right then who are we to disrespect anyone and think we can go to any football ground and automatically get a result? Liverpool Football Club has not been built on that foundation, they've always been respectful to people who have paid and have worked hard to get the result. If they don't want to do that, then fine. I don't know where this attitude has come from but it had better go quickly."

Cue: collective sigh of relief. Too many modern-day managers spend their entire post-match press conference seeking excuses, alibis and smokescreens in a thinly-veiled bid to protect their obviously culpable players. Indeed, one of the reasons so many players that leave Arsenal are so complimentary about Wenger is precisely because he never hangs them out to dry. And the reason most managers don't publicly criticise their own is for fear of losing the dressing room.

Dalglish, however, is an exception to the rule because he would have to get his side relegated and burn down Anfield before losing the unswerving support of the Kop. No player is bigger than the club and not even Steven Gerrard is bigger than King Kenny, who decided to use his position to inflict an entirely justifiable withering attack on his own.

It should be pointed out, though, that Dalglish's untouchability does present problems of its own, for neither should the Reds' coach be exempt from all culpability. After all, unlike his harshly vilified predecessor Roy Hodgson, it is Dalglish who was given the keys to the coffers and his £100m plus outlay on players has not paid dividends hitherto. His claims in August that the club had spent "responsibly" are beginning to ring hollow with his side lying seventh in the table and 16 points off the top, having played a game more than leaders Manchester City.

Andy Carroll has yet to justify a tenth of his £35m price tag, while Luis Suarez, aside from letting down his team-mates in the whole Patrice Evra affair, has not translated star quality into goals. Five strikes in 18 league matches is a poor return for a player at a club who, before yesterday, had created the second most goalscoring chances than any other club this season. In total Liverpool have scored just 25 goals all season: significantly less than half of the 57 Manchester City have managed, and their lowest return by this stage of the season in 40 years.

On Saturday, with the exception of Craig Bellamy and Pepe Reina, the Reds were abject, ceding possession cheaply, defending naively and receiving no protection from Charlie Adam or Gerrard, who failed to track back. On a day when Chelsea dropped points and Newcastle lost this was a chance to make gains on the top four, but after Saturday's performance they are as likely to earn a Champions League place as 16th-placed QPR are to finish in the top ten.

Dalglish fell short of suggesting that he will delve into the transfer market to salvage his side's flagging campaign, saying that there is "no need for a knee-jerk". In all honesty, to do so would represent an admission of failure on his part; it would highlight just how poor the likes of Stewart Downing and Jordan Henderson have been. However, he needs to do something soon to inspire a reaction from his players, who yesterday seemingly had half an eye on Wednesday's Carling Cup semi-final against Manchester City at Anfield and Saturday's FA Cup fourth round encounter against Manchester United.

Perhaps the public scolding will suffice. It can't do any harm because Liverpool need something to rouse themselves from their present state of torpour. Either way it was refreshing to see the players being berated rather than pampered for once. For that much Kenny deserves the thanks of us all.

Mario Balotelli scored a last-gasp winner as Manchester City beat Spurs but could well have been sent off earlier. At the Emirates, Manchester United took all three points as Arsenal's troubles continue......

With four of the top five Premier League clubs in action, Sunday afternoon is going to be one to saviour. Mike Norman is here throughout the day to update all the action and price changes as they happen....

Lee Dixon wonders whether Manchester United deserve to go into this match as favourites and thinks the fixture will, as ever, be a fiery affair between two teams who don't really like each other....


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July 18, 2011

Betting Briefing: Rewilding to defeat another Ballydoyle superstar?

Weekly Betfair Briefing RSS / Timeform / 17 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Rewilding will bid to win his third Group 1 of the year in the King George at Ascot on Saturday.

Rewilding will bid to win his third Group 1 of the year in the King George at Ascot on Saturday.

"One of the biggest races of the year, the Betfair King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes takes place at Ascot on Saturday and sees some of the best middle-distance performers in the world take each other on..."

Timeform look ahead to next week's racing, which includes the Group 1 Betfair King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday...

Sunday July 17

There is Group 1 action in Ireland, as the Curragh stages the Irish Oaks. Nine fillies go to post including Dancing Rain who bids to repeat her Epsom victory, but the market believes Wonder of Wonders and Blue Bunting will finish ahead of her this time.

Also in Ireland Tipperary have a NH card in the afternoon, as do Newton Abbot and Stratford, while Redcar hosts the only Flat card in Britain.

Monday July 18

Ayr and Yarmouth are the venues for the afternoon's Flat action, while Beverley and Windsor are on in the evening. In Ireland, Ballinrobe stage a mixed seven-race card.

Tuesday July 19

There are three Flat meetings and one NH card in Britain. Musselburgh and Yarmouth are on the level in the afternoon, while there is action at Southwell in the evening, as well as at Bangor over jumps. For the second evening in a row, Ballinrobe (NH) is the sole Irish meeting.

Wednesday July 20

Catterick and Lingfield on the Flat and Worcester over jumps are the venues for the afternoon racing on Wednesday. In the evening there is also Flat action at Leicester, Sandown and Naas in Ireland where there is a six-furlong fillies' listed race, won last year by Charles O'Brien's Bewitched.

Thursday July 21

A busy Thursday with eight meetings either side of the Irish Sea. In Britain, Bath and Sandown (including a listed race for two-year-olds) are the Flat meetings in the afternoon, along with a NH card from Uttoxeter. Three meetings in the evening sees the Yorkshire Racing Festival continue at Doncaster, while there are also cards at Epsom and Folkestone.

There are also two evening meetings in Ireland, a seven race Flat card at Leopardstown which stages two Group 3s and a jumps fixture at Limerick.

Friday July 22

Ascot hosts day one of the Betfair Weekend, the highlight being the listed Woodcote Stud Valiant Stakes over a mile for fillies and mares. Also on the Flat there are meetings at Thirsk and in the evening at Newmarket, Chepstow and York where there is a listed race for fillies over a mile and a quarter. Southwell represents the sole jumps fixture in the afternoon.

In Ireland, there are meetings at Down Royal and Wexford.


Saturday July 23

One of the biggest races of the year, the Betfair King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes takes place at Ascot on Saturday. A Group 1 over a mile and a half, it sees some of the best middle-distance performers in the world take each other on. This year we are likely to see Aidan O'Brien's Coronation Cup winner St Nicholas Abbey take on dual Group 1 winner Rewilding, with the possibility of last year's Arc hero Workforce taking his place as well. It is supported by the Group 3 Princess Maragret Stakes for fillies over six furlongs.

Elsewhere, in the afternoon York stages the Group 2 Skybet York Stakes, it's Ladies Day at Newcastle and there is a competitive card at Newmarket. The two evening meetings are both on the level at Lingfield and Salisbury.

Download a Free Race Card every day in July at timeform.com. Click HERE to register or see the menu.


It's a relatively quiet week as we gear up to the Betfair King George and the Goodwood and Galway Festival meetings later in the month, but Market Rasen stages a quality card on Saturday......

Timeform look ahead to next week's racing, the highlight of which is Newmarket's July Meeting......

It's Irish Derby day at the Curragh on Sunday, and fast-forward to Saturday and you can see another Derby winner in the shape of Workforce, who goes for the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown......


Betfair website

July 17, 2011

Betting Briefing: Rewilding to defeat another Ballydoyle superstar?

Weekly Betfair Briefing RSS / Timeform / 16 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Rewilding will bid to win his third Group 1 of the year in the King George at Ascot on Saturday.

Rewilding will bid to win his third Group 1 of the year in the King George at Ascot on Saturday.

"One of the biggest races of the year, the Betfair King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes takes place at Ascot on Saturday and sees some of the best middle-distance performers in the world take each other on..."

Timeform look ahead to next week's racing, which includes the Group 1 Betfair King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday...

Sunday July 17

There is Group 1 action in Ireland, as the Curragh stages the Irish Oaks. Nine fillies go to post including Dancing Rain who bids to repeat her Epsom victory, but the market believes Wonder of Wonders and Blue Bunting will finish ahead of her this time.

Also in Ireland Tipperary have a NH card in the afternoon, as do Newton Abbot and Stratford, while Redcar hosts the only Flat card in Britain.

Monday July 18

Ayr and Yarmouth are the venues for the afternoon's Flat action, while Beverley and Windsor are on in the evening. In Ireland, Ballinrobe stage a mixed seven-race card.

Tuesday July 19

There are three Flat meetings and one NH card in Britain. Musselburgh and Yarmouth are on the level in the afternoon, while there is action at Southwell in the evening, as well as at Bangor over jumps. For the second evening in a row, Ballinrobe (NH) is the sole Irish meeting.

Wednesday July 20

Catterick and Lingfield on the Flat and Worcester over jumps are the venues for the afternoon racing on Wednesday. In the evening there is also Flat action at Leicester, Sandown and Naas in Ireland where there is a six-furlong fillies' listed race, won last year by Charles O'Brien's Bewitched.

Thursday July 21

A busy Thursday with eight meetings either side of the Irish Sea. In Britain, Bath and Sandown (including a listed race for two-year-olds) are the Flat meetings in the afternoon, along with a NH card from Uttoxeter. Three meetings in the evening sees the Yorkshire Racing Festival continue at Doncaster, while there are also cards at Epsom and Folkestone.

There are also two evening meetings in Ireland, a seven race Flat card at Leopardstown which stages two Group 3s and a jumps fixture at Limerick.

Friday July 22

Ascot hosts day one of the Betfair Weekend, the highlight being the listed Woodcote Stud Valiant Stakes over a mile for fillies and mares. Also on the Flat there are meetings at Thirsk and in the evening at Newmarket, Chepstow and York where there is a listed race for fillies over a mile and a quarter. Southwell represents the sole jumps fixture in the afternoon.

In Ireland, there are meetings at Down Royal and Wexford.


Saturday July 23

One of the biggest races of the year, the Betfair King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes takes place at Ascot on Saturday. A Group 1 over a mile and a half, it sees some of the best middle-distance performers in the world take each other on. This year we are likely to see Aidan O'Brien's Coronation Cup winner St Nicholas Abbey take on dual Group 1 winner Rewilding, with the possibility of last year's Arc hero Workforce taking his place as well. It is supported by the Group 3 Princess Maragret Stakes for fillies over six furlongs.

Elsewhere, in the afternoon York stages the Group 2 Skybet York Stakes, it's Ladies Day at Newcastle and there is a competitive card at Newmarket. The two evening meetings are both on the level at Lingfield and Salisbury.

Download a Free Race Card every day in July at timeform.com. Click HERE to register or see the menu.


It's a relatively quiet week as we gear up to the Betfair King George and the Goodwood and Galway Festival meetings later in the month, but Market Rasen stages a quality card on Saturday......

Timeform look ahead to next week's racing, the highlight of which is Newmarket's July Meeting......

It's Irish Derby day at the Curragh on Sunday, and fast-forward to Saturday and you can see another Derby winner in the shape of Workforce, who goes for the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown......


Betfair website

April 20, 2011

Follow The Money: Is defeat out of the question for Firebeam?

Follow the Money RSS / Follow The Money / 20 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will you follow the money at Southwell?

Will you follow the money at Southwell?

"With today`s extra furlong likely to suit, Firebeam must be very hard to beat."

Today's Follow the Money comes from the cards at Southwell and Epsom...


In the opening 14:10 maiden contest at Southwell, Firebeam has been backed as if defeat is out of the question, coming in from an early [2.3] to [1.49]. William Haggas' three-year-old gelding makes his second racecourse appearance today following a highly promising debut at Doncaster when chasing home a decent sort with a proven level of form. With today`s extra furlong likely to suit, Firebeam must be very hard to beat.

At Epsom, Sunny Game has been well backed in the 14:35 race, moving in from [8.2] to [5.4]. Successful under today`s pilot Jamie Spencer a year ago in a Warwick maiden, this one continued to run well in handicap company, winding up last season with a close fifth in a competitive Doncaster contest. The early money today suggests he will be ready to run a big race in what is his seasonal reappearance.

Our final mover is also at Epsom and a negative in the 15.10 Derby Trial. Borug has drifted out to [3.95] from [2.64]. Officially top rated of today`s five runners, Saeed Bin Suroor's inmate has been in action over in Meydan of late with a couple of respectable efforts. Those runs don`t however suggest he's improving much and layers seem happy to take him on with a couple of his less exposed rivals.

Recommended Bets

Back Firebeam @ [1.49] Southwell 14.10
Back Sunny Game @ [5.4] Epsom 14.35
Lay Borug @ [3.95] Epsom 15.10

Today's Follow the Money comes from the cards at Pontefract, Fontwell and Southwell....

Today's Follow The Money three selections run at Exeter and Redcar....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Leicester and Newbury....


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February 26, 2011

Serie A Betting: Don't rule out the Milan home defeat

Italian Football RSS / Dave Farrar / 25 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Antonio Cassano (ineligible in Europe) returns to the side but it may not be enough to beat Napoli

Antonio Cassano (ineligible in Europe) returns to the side but it may not be enough to beat Napoli

"I’m tempted by the [5.3] which is available about Napoli causing a shock, but without Lavezzi they’re likely to be happier with a draw than they might have been."

There's a long way to go yet in this season's Serie A race and they may well drop points as soon as Monday night when Napoli come calling. Elsewhere Udinese can spring a bit of an upset of their own.

Palermo v Udinese


The Palermo president Maurizio Zamparini has been winning friends and influencing people again this week, telling the press in Sicily that the recent poor run of the men in pink and black is "all the coach's fault."

Delio Rossi and the Udinese boss Francesco Guidolin will be able to compare notes on Signor Zamparini, as Guidolin has been fired three times from the Palermo hotseat. Guidolin is in the happier position at the moment, with his Udinese side the team of 2011 so far, and now that Alexis Sanchez is back from suspension, they're likely to give Palermo a real run for their money. Fabrizio Miccoli is out with an injury for the home team, and with Palermo having lost their last two matches in disappointing fashion, Udinese may just be a bit of value at [3.5] to go to the Renzo Barbera and win.

Recommendation: Back Udinese to beat Palermo @ [3.5]


Roma v Parma

While European football fans were concentrating on the Champions League in midweek, there was a significant and slightly surprising result in Serie A, but it's one that will have passed many people by.

In their first game since Claudio Ranieri left the club, Roma went to Bologna and won 1-0 in what was a pretty dull game. The result was significant because Roma don't really do dull, having conceded fourteen goals in their previous four Serie A matches, but in a new formation, and with a new impetus, they despatched a decent Bologna side fairly comfortably.

It seems too simplistic to say that senior players had fallen out with Ranieri, and that the group had stopped trying, but rumours coming out of the club suggest that this was the case, and that Roma might be set for a focused and successful end of the season. Caretaker manager Vincenzo Montella is organised, intelligent, and popular, and that might be enough.

Roma should certainly be too good for Parma, who have hidden from the outside world this week after a desperate 2-2 draw against Cesena, and they're only four points away from relegation after a terrible 2011 so far. It could well be a second clean sheet in a row for Roma, and they're always dangerous going forward, so rate good value at odds against to give the visitors a goal start on the Asian Handicap.

Recommendation ROMA -1 on Asian Handicap @ [2.1]

Milan v Napoli

The Monday evening game in Serie A is unquestionably the match of the weekend, and quite possibly the ninety minutes that will define the rest of the season. Milan go into the weekend three points clear of Napoli, and five points clear of Inter, although by the time that these two play on Monday night, Inter could well have reduced the gap to two.

Milan are no shoo-ins to win the title, and this is the first of seven really difficult games which face them on a difficult run-in. The Rossoneri are definitely too short at [1.74] to finish the season as champions, with a trip to Juventus to come next week, and the Milan derby to follow not long afterwards.

The game is being played on Monday night because of Napoli's Europa League match against Villareal, and once the initial disappointment of being eliminated has abated, the Neapolitans will probably see that their ability to focus on Serie A is a good thing.

Tottenham exposed Milan's occasional lack of inspiration in front of goal, and Napoli are able to do likewise, although they will be seriously hampered by the absense of the suspended Ezequiel Lavezzi. I'm tempted by the [5.3] which is available about Napoli causing a shock, but without Lavezzi they're likely to be happier with a draw than they might have been.

Milan are still missing Andrea Pirlo, but those of you who were unimpressed by them in the Champions League should remember that the Serie A version of Milan features Antonio Cassano, who can provide the creativity which they so sorely lacked against Spurs, but is ineligible to play in Europe. The Napoli win can't go unbacked purely on value terms (after all both Roma and Juve have won at Milan this season), but it should be supported with a bet on under 2.5 goals at [1.83]. Napoli will stifle for a half, and then try and sprit away a win. They may well succeed, but I doubt that it will be pretty to watch.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 Goals in Milan v Napoli @ [1.83]
Napoli to win @ [5.3]

There's a long way to go yet in this season's Serie A race and they may well drop points as soon as Monday night when Napoli come calling. Elsewhere Udinese can spring a bit of an upset of their own....

The Tinkerman has gone but whoever replaces him at Roma - and it might yet be the current Chelsea boss - will need to overhaul an ageing squad, says Ben Lyttleton....

Both Fiorentina and Sampdoria look sharp in front of goal so it's worth backing overs when they meet this weekend, says Dave Farrar. Meanwhile, how fortunes have changed since the last time Udinese met Brescia and an entertaining Saturday night...


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