US Open 2014 Men's Betting: Back Karlovic to defeat Nieminen in battle of the veterans

"Nieminen has a 6-15 record on outdoor hard courts against the big servers in my list of players and he's lost 11 of the last 15 on all surfaces."

Back Karlovic to beat Nieminen at 1.625/8

It was a great start to the fortnight in New York for tennis expert Sean Calvert, who made a substantial profit from his tips on Monday. He's back to pick the best bets in the US Open on Tuesday...

The US Open began in profitable fashion yesterday, as all three of my bets were winners, plus Nick Kyrgios from my 'potential upsets' article.

Novak Djokovic starred for me by winning the opener 6-1 over Diego Schwartzmann at odds of 5.04/1, while Michael Llodra was an odds-against winner and Andreas Seppi also won comfortably.

Llodra and Seppi were drifters in the market too, which made it even better and for my first bet today I have to side with Ivo Karlovic over Jarkko Nieminen.

Amazingly, for two gnarly tour veterans nearing the end of their careers this pair have never met, but the Finn does struggle against big servers and he looks like he hasn't got that much longer left on tour to me.

Nieminen has a 6-15 record on outdoor hard courts against the big servers in my list of players and he's lost 11 of the last 15 on all surfaces.

His serve isn't powerful enough and second serve is weak, which puts him at a disadvantage in tie breaks and tight moments in matches and I think the 1.625/8 about Karlovic is fair enough in hot and quick conditions.

Two at bigger prices that I like today are Andreas Haider-Maurer and Borna Coric against Roberto Bautista Agut and Lukas Rosol respectively.

RBA has been in no sort of form since a very hectic summer and he may be feeling the effects of that at the moment after poor showings in both of his hard court events in North America.

Haider-Maurer sprang a surprise here last year by beating Ernests Gulbis and although he's more at home on clay he can test out RBA and see if there are any weaknesses and injury/fitness concerns there.

Rosol is on a high right now after winning the title in Winston-Salem, despite appearing to not fancy it at all in his first match, but he's never won a match at the US Open so far in his career.

Today he faces a young player I really like in Coric, who can go places and perhaps surprise a few people here with his game.

Rosol is not one to trust by any means and he looks short today to me, with the 3.55n/a about Coric a potentially decent investment on a Cash Out basis.

Elsewhere, Wayne Odesnik takes on Kei Nishikori in the only one of my 'upsets' playing today and much of the value has gone in that one, but Cash Out backers have already made some money, with Odesnik a 4.03/1 shot now from 6.05/1.

Recommended Bets
Back Karlovic to beat Nieminen at 1.625/8
Back Haider Maurer to win a set at 2.26/5

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Coric to beat Rosol at 3.55n/a

Profit based on £10 stake per bet = + £984.60

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Miami Masters Daily Tips: Revved up Karlovic can keep run going

Events / Ben Caudell / 24 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Big Ivo knows how to serve

"I expect this match to be a close-fought battle which has three sets written all over it. Karlovic has the momentum though so he is the selection at [1.63]."

Ben Caudell looks out for winners at the Miami Masters and he's looking to a big server on a big run to do him a big favour

Florian Mayer (GER) v Ivo Karlovic (CRO)
Karlovic managed to squeeze into the Miami Masters main draw at the last minute when a wild card became available on Monday following Thiemo de Bakker's withdrawl from the tournament.

The 6'10" giant was reportedly livid with the tournament organisers after initially not even getting a wild card for due to his world ranking of 153. But it turns out that was a blessing in disguise.

Karlovic starts off this year's event against Germany's Florian Mayer having missed most of the 2010 season with an Achilles problem. His comeback wasn't as successful as he would have hoped until last week at Indian Wells where he turned it all around with wins over David Ferrer, Giles Simon and Albert Montanes, eventually losing at the quarter-final stage to Rafael Nadal in a third set tie-break.

With good form pushing him on and the added motivation of sticking two fingers up at the organisers who snubbed him we can expect good things of Karlovic. He also has a great chance of improving his world ranking back into the realms of the top 50.

The Croat leads their head-to-head series over Mayer 1-0, however this match was played way back in 2006 at the Sunrise Challenger tournament which the Croat took in three sets. Tonight's match will prove to be a tough match-up for Ivo, Mayer is a crafty veteran and a player who can mix all kinds of spin and slices to disrupt the rhythm of play. However, the German lost last week in straight sets to Andrey Golubev 6-2, 6-1 and prior to this to Marin Cilic in a five-set Davis cup match. It is also important to note that Mayer has lost four of his last five matches in the United States, where as Karlovic has won four of his last five.

I expect this match to be a close-fought battle which has three sets written all over it. Karlovic has the momentum though so he is the selection at [1.63].

My best bet however is to back over 23.5 games, Karlovic is a difficult player to break on serve (he has lost serve just four times in his last six matches) of the 11 best of three-set matches he has played so far this year, seven of 13 have been over 23.5 games with an average of 26 games played. The [1.9] on offer in the total games market looks to solid value for me.

Recommended Bets
Back Over 23.5 Games @ [1.9]
Back Ivo Karlovic @ [1.63]

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