Showing posts with label Miami. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miami. Show all posts
October 5, 2013
April 3, 2011
Miami Masters Tips: Vamos Rafa...
Events 
/ Ben Caudell / 03 April 2011 / 1 Comments 
Nadal can come out on top in what should be a Titanic struggle
"Nadal is not the player you want to meet if your energy levels are low."
We could be in for a classic as the world's best do battle in Miami. Ben Caudell looks for the best bets
Rafael Nadal (ESP) v Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Its crunch time everyone, and boy do we have a mouth-watering final to look forward to this evening. The top-two ranked players on the ATP World Tour are all set for an epic battle with World No.1 Nadal looking to record his first tournament win in Miami and World No.2 Djokovic trying for a fourth straight title this year, and a second in Miami.
The Serbian enters the game armed with the third longest winning start to a season in the past 30 years, with a staggering 23 victories in a row. His last defeat was way back in November 2010, to Roger Federer in the semi-finals of the World Tour Finals.
But Nadal has been in fine form in Miami and I will be siding with the Spaniard who can be backed at [1.96] in the match odds.
Novak's streak has to come to an end soon, the Indian Wells and Davis Cup winner must be fatigued after his energy sapping run of wins. And Nadal is not the player you want to meet if your energy levels are low. The surface in Miami play's a lot slower than any other hard court and are more akin to clay.
The Serbian has admitted to feeling a little tired and stated that "I won't feel like the favourite on court. It's a final, so in order for me to win I will have to be on the top of my game."
The Spaniard on the other hand is adamant that he is playing at a higher level than last week in Indian Wells where the left-hander was defeated in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 by tonight's opponent.
"I am feeling well every day," he said. "It's not like Indian Wells last week. I wasn't playing well almost all tournament"
Furthermore, Nadal leads their head-to-head series 16-8 and has a 5-1 mark against Djokovic in finals, the world No. 1 has a 19-3 match record this season. At World Tour Masters, Nadal has become the all-time leader with 18 titles to his name.
And there are more stats that favour the Spaniard. Not since Roger Federer in 2006 has a player won back-to-back Indian Wells and Miami titles, only two players have ever defeated Nadal at least twice in a final (Roger Federer and Nikolay Davydenko).
The Miami courts are better suited to the Spaniard and the World No.1 has held serve in 47 of 48 games thus far, saving 12 of 13 break points. We also cannot ignore Nadal's impeccable performance against Roger Federer in the semi-finals in which the Mallorca native battered the Swiss Master 6-3 6-2.
All things considered, tonight's match should be a joy to watch and another close affair between the very best in the world. But both heart and mind say Djokovic will struggle to beat Nadal twice in a row, therefore I am siding with the Spaniard to record his first ever Miami title. Vamos Rafa...
Recommended Bet
Back Rafael Nadal @ [1.96]
Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka meet to decide the coveted Miami Open title this weekend. Guy McCrea considers who might come out on top of this intriguing clash ......
It's not often we see Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal playing in a semi-final because they're normally the last two standing but here's a rare chance to see them slogging it out in the round before. But which of the...
Roger Federer is up against Gilles Simon today in Miami and there are plenty of reasons to suggest the Frenchman will give him a really good game. So bet accordingly, says Ben Caudell....
April 2, 2011
Miami Women's Final Betting: Vika to vanquish Maria
Players Under the Microscope / Guy McCrea / 01 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Guy believes Azarenka could be in contention at the Slams
"I can’t shake the feeling that the former world number one might be tired after recent efforts... "
Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka meet to decide the coveted Miami Open title this weekend. Guy McCrea considers who might come out on top of this intriguing clash ...
Victory in Miami can prove crucial to a player's season. Often referred to as the 'fifth Slam', this title carries huge ranking points, prize money and prestige. While it does herald the end of the winter hardcourt swing, winning Miami can also bestow momentum for the rest of the campaign. This weekend's showpiece between two-time former finalist Maria Sharapova and 2009 champion Victoria Azarenka is likely to be no different. The two stars are at different stages of their careers, but for both this final represents an opportunity to show that they can be major players at the upcoming Grand Slams.
Sharapova has done a decent job of making herself relevant again this past month, following up a semi-final run in Indian Wells. By winning her marathon quarter-final against Alexandra Dulgheru, Sharapova re-entered the WTA top ten and with few ranking points to defend over the next three months, the Russian could be back in the top five by the end of Wimbledon. But even if she wins Miami, can Sharapova go on and claim the fourth Grand Slam title she craves? I remain unconvinced.
However motivated she is, I can't see Sharapova [22.0] winning the French Open. Clay is her weakest surface and I don't think she can produce the required energy levels and sustained performance to win seven matches in Paris. In Miami, Sharapova's shown that she remains a formidable ball-striker with remarkable fighting spirit. But post shoulder surgery, her serve is a liability and she can no longer be backed to consistently overpower opponents.
For her part, Azarenka has impressed en route to her second Miami final. The Belarussian survived two-hour battles with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Dominika Cibulkova and dispatched both Kim Clijsters and Vera Zvonareva in straight sets. Due to injuries, Clijsters wasn't entirely at the races but take nothing away from Azarenka for staying focused and finishing the job. She was equally relentless against Zvonareva.
Regular readers know that I've been critical of Azarenka's mental focus in the past. But she has shown bundles this past fortnight. Still only 21-years-old, perhaps now is the time for Azarenka to go deep at the Slams and fulfil her huge potential. Everything I have seen of her these past two weeks suggests she can be a contender at both the French Open and Wimbledon.
Returning to this weekend's final, we can expect a good battle between Sharapova and Azarenka. Both can make spectators reach for their ear plugs with the noise they produce on-court, both are most at home on American hardcourts and they possess similar baseline games. They also have two victories apiece from their four previous meetings.
In many ways, the final will come down to how well both women serve and who can dictate the baseline exchanges. Azarenka didn't even face a break point in her semi-final and if the Belarussian can again hold serve so comfortably, it will put huge pressure on Sharapova's extremely fragile delivery. Azarenka did this to excellent effect to beat Sharapova in their most recent meeting in Stanford last year, punishing the Russian's weak second serves. Sharapova is also prone to plenty of double faults and needless to say she must keep these to a minimum to stay in with a chance against Azarenka.
Sharapova does own an excellent career record (104/36) in three set matches, and has won all five that she's played so far this season. But if you want to back the Russian, I think her best chance of victory is actually to win the title in straight sets, decent value at around 4.2.
I can't shake the feeling that the former world number one might be tired after recent efforts though, which is why I plump for Azarenka to win the coveted Miami crown for a second time, and give herself a timely boost ahead of the clay court campaign.
Recommended Bets
Back Azarenka to win Miami at around [1.68]
Justine Henin's 2010 return was cut short by injury. But the former world number one is now back again ahead of the Australian Open. Guy McCrea assesses her chances ......
Sean Calvert considers the career of a likable Russian who ultimately failed on the biggest stages. But why?...
There is likely to be a change at the top of the WTA rankings this week, with Caroline Wozniacki set to take over from Serena Williams as world number one. Guy McCrea discusses if this will be a good thing...
Miami Masters Betting: Masters at work
Events / Ben Caudell / 01 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Nadal consoling Federer has been the familar story in recent times but tonight it could be different
"With both men playing well on the hard-courts and almost immune to any sort of pressure, I am going to edge with the better value and take Roger Federer to defeat Nadal tonight."
It's not often we see Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal playing in a semi-final because they're normally the last two standing but here's a rare chance to see them slogging it out in the round before. But which of the two gets the nod from Ben Caudell?
One of the most profound rivalries in the modern day era between two of the greatest players to have ever graced the tennis world will face off at midnight tonight on the stadium court for an all-important place in the final here in Miami.
Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have been paired against one another on no less than 22 occasions during their amazing careers. Incredibly, seven of those 22 matches were played in Grand Slam finals, 12 on clay courts and (not including Exhibition events) only four of these head-to-heads have taken place on outdoor hard courts.
The Spaniard definitely has the upper-hand in terms of their rivalry leading the head-to-head series 14-8. Not surprisingly, the majority of these wins have come on his favoured surface the European red clay, in which he is so dominant. Nadal also has a 3-1 record against the Swiss champ on outdoor hard courts.
Having stayed up until the early hours of the morning to watch Nadal scrape through an entertaining match against Tomas Berdych in three sets, I now have niggling doubts about the 24 year-old's fitness. The world No. 1 twice called a trainer onto the court to remedy a right arm shoulder problem and stiff neck that appeared to hamper the Spaniard after he took the first set.
With these doubts in mind and the fact that Roger Federer has had virtually an extra day's rest due to the early retirement of Gilles Simon in the quarter-final round, I am confident that the Fed Express will take advantage of the injury worries that may be playing Rafa's mind he is worth backing at [2.34] in the Match Odds.
Furthermore, Roger holds a 22-3 match record this season (all three losses have come against Novak Djokovic). He opened up the 2011 campaign with his 67th career title in Doha in his 96th final and he's the all-time leader in ATP World Tour Masters 1000 match wins (231) with a career mark of 231-69. Federer also has two Miami titles to his name (2005 - 2006) and a great record against left-handers winning, 12 of his last 13.
One more important stat to take not of is that in their previous 22 matches, the winner of the first set has gone on to win 17 times, including in all of the last 11 encounters.
With both men playing well on the hard-courts and almost immune to any sort of pressure, I am going to edge with the better value and take Roger Federer to defeat Nadal tonight.
Recommended Bet:
Back Roger Federer @ [2.34] to win match
Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka meet to decide the coveted Miami Open title this weekend. Guy McCrea considers who might come out on top of this intriguing clash ......
Roger Federer is up against Gilles Simon today in Miami and there are plenty of reasons to suggest the Frenchman will give him a really good game. So bet accordingly, says Ben Caudell....
He'll have home support on his side and a strong record against top ten players, but can Mardy Fish overcome David Ferrer in what is likely to be a long match?...
March 30, 2011
Miami Masters Tips: America's next top tennis player?
Events / Ben Caudell / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Ben's backing Mardy Fish to be the American number one
"If Fish wins today, not only would he reach the semi-finals of this event for the first time, he would also become the top ranked American for the first time in his career."
He'll have home support on his side and a strong record against top ten players, but can Mardy Fish overcome David Ferrer in what is likely to be a long match?
David Ferrer (ESP) v Mardy Fish (US)
After surprising first round losses for both these players at Indian Wells a fortnight ago, Miami has proved to be a different kettle of 'fish'. With the Spaniard and American firing on all cylinders and with both players yet to drop a single set, we can look forward to a real corker of a match that looks evenly balanced on paper but not in the match odds where Fish can be backed at [2.80].
The head-to-head record reads three wins apiece with only two of the six matches having been won in straight sets. However, it's been nearly four years since these two stalwarts last competed against each other, so history shouldn't have a significant baring on how this quarter-final pans out.
What is important, though, is the fact that Fish is coming into a purple patch of form at the right time. Having completed notable wins over former top ten player Richard Gasquet 6-4 6-3 and former US Open Champion Juan Martin Del Potro, the American has another incentive that will give him an extra adrenaline boost. If Fish wins today, not only would he reach the semi-finals of this event for the first time, he would also become the top ranked American for the first time in his career.
Fish has a great record against top ten players and he recorded a positive 5-3 stat in 2010. He's appearing in his third ATP World Tour quarter-final or better this year and his fourth ATP World Tour Masters quarter-final. An important fact to note is that from his last three appearances at this stage of a Master series event Mardy has gone on to reach the final.
There will be a lot of home support cheering Fish on. This match will probably go all the way but my money is going on the soon to be top American.
Recommended Bets
Back Mardy Fish @ [2.8] to win match
Back three sets @ [2.44]
It's an all-Serb clash in Miami today and it's hard to see the prohibitively short-priced Novak Djojovic losing this one to Viktor Troicki. We must therefore go in search of alternative betting options, says Ben Caudell....
Rising Ukrainian can edge ahead of inconsistent Frenchman, says Ben Caudell...
Former US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro is up against Robin Soderling in the glamour tie of the third round in Miami and Ben Caudell thinks the smart money is on the Swede...
March 28, 2011
Miami Masters Tips: Get on the Dol
Events / Ben Caudell / 28 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Alexandr Dolgopolov in action
"Dolgopolov is currently at an all-time high of 23 and should no longer be regarded as a promising player, but instead a top performer who can compete on every surface."
Rising Ukrainian can edge ahead of inconsistent Frenchman, says Ben Caudell
Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR) v Jo Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)
Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Alexandr Dolgopolov are all set for what should be a fiery late night encounter on the Stadium Court this evening, with the winner likely to face Rafael Nadal in the fourth round.
If this is anywhere near as good as their first two meetings we are in for a real treat. in their first clash last summer at Wimbledon, Tsonga prevailed in five sets. They met again at the Australian Open this year which the Ukrainian took in a five set epic.
We are all aware of the Tsonga's explosive power game and the excitement he brings to the tennis court has generated a huge amount of support from players and fans alike. However, often plagued by physical issues, Tsonga has again been inconsistent this year and looked out of sorts against his second round opponent Teimuraz Gabashvili ranked 61 places lower, eventually taking the match 6-3 6-7 6-3. These inconsistencies were also in evidence with a lacklustre performance against an out of form Xavier Malisse at Indian Wells last week that resulted in a second round loss for the Frenchman after receiving a bye in round one.
Dolgopolov, who has a 15-7 record this season, is continuing his ascent towards the top of the world rankings. The 22-year-old is currently at an all-time high of 23 and should no longer be regarded as a promising player, but instead a top performer who can compete on every surface.
Having reached the quarter-finals of the Australian Open earlier in the year, including wins over Robin Soderling and today's opponent Tsonga, Dolgopolov will be confident in his ability to beat the Frenchman for a second time today. The brilliant shot-maker has a decent record against big servers and his game is more suited to the humid, windy conditions of Miami than Tsonga's.
Finally, Dolgopolov is making his debut appearance in Miami so has no points to defend and given his better current form, my money is with the Ukrainian.
Recommended Bets
Back Dolgopolov @ [1.73] to win match
Back Over 22.5 Games @ [1.95]
Former US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro is up against Robin Soderling in the glamour tie of the third round in Miami and Ben Caudell thinks the smart money is on the Swede...
Jurgen Melzer is in action against Philipp Petzschner later on today and Ben Caudell predicts the worst for the tempestuous Austrian....
Ben Caudell looks ahead to tonight's clash between Igor Andreev and John Isner....
March 27, 2011
Miami Masters: Further Melzdown
Events / Ben Caudell / 26 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Melzer has had a tough time of it over the past few weeks
"Today Melzer faces Philipp Petzschner of Germany; a player who could further damage the Austrian’s credentials and continue the trend of seeded players being knocked out at the early stages of this competition."
Jurgen Melzer is in action against Philipp Petzschner later on today and Ben Caudell predicts the worst for the tempestuous Austrian.
29 year-old Jurgen Melzer has clambered into the top 10 of the ATP World Rankings for the first time in his distinguished career after a successful 2010 which saw the Austrian reach the fourth round of the US Open and Wimbledon and amazingly the semi-finals of the French Open. However ,the pressures of retaining his top 10 position is in doubt due to his recent poor form that has seen the left-hander struggle to win two consecutive matches in his last four tournaments.
Today Melzer faces Philipp Petzschner of Germany; a player who could further damage the Austrian's credentials and continue the trend of seeded players being knocked out at the early stages of this competition.
There are good reasons for siding with the German in today's afternoon match-up. Firstly, Petzschner holds an important 1-0 head-to-head lead over his opponent, although this match was admittedly played on clay. Philipp won 7-6 6-2 in Monte Carlo, at Master Series event level.
Secondly, Petzschner has won four in a row against big servers, and has won four in a row when priced as a moderate underdog (2.0 to 3.0). He also reached the third round in Miami last year defeating Janko Tipsarevic and Ryan Sweeting in straight sets and has the advantage of having acclimatised to the tournament conditions with a first-round win over Florent Serra (6-1 7-5).
It is also important to note that Melzer has a poor record in Miami; he is currently 3-7 and has only once made it through to the round of 32... and that was way back in 2004. Go for the German at [2.44] in the match odds.
Recommended Bet:
Back Philipp Petzchner @ [2.44] to win match
Ben Caudell looks ahead to tonight's clash between Igor Andreev and John Isner....
Ben Caudell looks out for winners at the Miami Masters and he's looking to a big server on a big run to do him a big favour...
After a torrid 12 months, the one-time world number three could be in title contention this week. But first he has to overcome his big-serving round one opponent, says Ben Caudell....
March 25, 2011
Miami Masters Daily Tips: Revved up Karlovic can keep run going
Events / Ben Caudell / 24 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Big Ivo knows how to serve
"I expect this match to be a close-fought battle which has three sets written all over it. Karlovic has the momentum though so he is the selection at [1.63]."
Ben Caudell looks out for winners at the Miami Masters and he's looking to a big server on a big run to do him a big favour
Florian Mayer (GER) v Ivo Karlovic (CRO)
Karlovic managed to squeeze into the Miami Masters main draw at the last minute when a wild card became available on Monday following Thiemo de Bakker's withdrawl from the tournament.
The 6'10" giant was reportedly livid with the tournament organisers after initially not even getting a wild card for due to his world ranking of 153. But it turns out that was a blessing in disguise.
Karlovic starts off this year's event against Germany's Florian Mayer having missed most of the 2010 season with an Achilles problem. His comeback wasn't as successful as he would have hoped until last week at Indian Wells where he turned it all around with wins over David Ferrer, Giles Simon and Albert Montanes, eventually losing at the quarter-final stage to Rafael Nadal in a third set tie-break.
With good form pushing him on and the added motivation of sticking two fingers up at the organisers who snubbed him we can expect good things of Karlovic. He also has a great chance of improving his world ranking back into the realms of the top 50.
The Croat leads their head-to-head series over Mayer 1-0, however this match was played way back in 2006 at the Sunrise Challenger tournament which the Croat took in three sets. Tonight's match will prove to be a tough match-up for Ivo, Mayer is a crafty veteran and a player who can mix all kinds of spin and slices to disrupt the rhythm of play. However, the German lost last week in straight sets to Andrey Golubev 6-2, 6-1 and prior to this to Marin Cilic in a five-set Davis cup match. It is also important to note that Mayer has lost four of his last five matches in the United States, where as Karlovic has won four of his last five.
I expect this match to be a close-fought battle which has three sets written all over it. Karlovic has the momentum though so he is the selection at [1.63].
My best bet however is to back over 23.5 games, Karlovic is a difficult player to break on serve (he has lost serve just four times in his last six matches) of the 11 best of three-set matches he has played so far this year, seven of 13 have been over 23.5 games with an average of 26 games played. The [1.9] on offer in the total games market looks to solid value for me.
Recommended Bets
Back Over 23.5 Games @ [1.9]
Back Ivo Karlovic @ [1.63]
After a torrid 12 months, the one-time world number three could be in title contention this week. But first he has to overcome his big-serving round one opponent, says Ben Caudell....
In-form Sean Calvert tells us why Andy Murray has the right credentials to 'go deep' this week in the heat of Miami after a disastrous few weeks....
Rafal Nadal has a good decent record against Novak Djokovic but can the world number two turn the table on the world number one in the final at Indian Wells?...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)