French Open Women's Draw: Five potential first round upsets

French Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 21 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gary believes Vania King could cause an upset in round one

"No way would I want to back Cornet as favourite – even with the partisan crowd on her side. The value clearly lies with Voracova at around [2.6].

The Boz tuned in to the French Open Women's draw on Friday and he's been at the form books ever since, working out his potential first round shocks. The following are his top five to turn over the odds.

Vania King to beat Dominika Cibulkova - priced around [5.0]

Absolute monster price for what is essentially a very tight match up. The Slovakian 22- year-old Cibulkova is in good form and is arguably the greater clay court player but she has a 0-2 head to head to overcome and the first of those defeats was the classic match of three tie-breaks which tells you how close this one is to call. I'd have it [2.1] the pair.

The recent match, at the 2010 Australian Open, produced another close three setter which the American won 7-5 in the last. She has slid down the rankings a tad since those days and, with both wins on hard court, it's perhaps easy to overestimate the current 94 ranked player as she attempts to dump the seed. The price being so wrong as a reflection of the difference between them makes me want to bet! I can't resist such an over generous offer.

Romani Oprandi to beat Ekaterina Makarova - priced around [3.2]

If you take the previous form between 77 ranked Italian Oprandi and 36 ranked Russian Makarova literally you can only make one favourite. Oprandi holds a 2-0 head to head score and both wins came back in 2006 on her favoured clay surface that they'll meet on here. In the first three sets between the two, Makarova won only four games, going down 6-1 6-3 and 6-0 before rallying to tie ten games all in the two final sets of the three set match in Denain.

The Russian was only 17 then and pretty green and of course she has improved immeasurably since and passed her 25-year-old opponent in the rankings but that head to head form is never forgotten and always influential. Oprandi comes in to the game knowing how to beat Makarova and beat her convincingly while Makarova comes in with the reverse feeling and the pressure on her to justify her revised rating since last they met.

That's a strong reason for taking the lesser ranked player in my book, especially when you are being offered such a price differential.

Renata Voracova to beat Alize Cornet - priced at around [2.6]

For 122 ranked Czech Voracova, this is a first appearance at Roland Garros and she is likely to be in the bear pit against local heart throb Alize Cornet who has herself slipped to a lowly 80 ranking after 12 months of indifferent form. Back in 2007, great things were forecast for the 21-year-old French woman as she triumphed in the junior French Open. She's lost her way a fair bit since then and has an unimpressive head to head against the 27-year-old to boot. Defeats at Poiters in 2007 and Linz in 2010 were both in straight sets and Cornet has that ability to simply not turn up. No way would I want to back her as favourite - even with the partisan crowd on her side in this (just as much a negative as a positive depending on how well you are playing). The value clearly lies in the debutante at around [2.6].

Kirsten lipkens to beat Lucie Safarova priced around [4.8]

The diminutive Belgian has dropped to 96 in the rankings but can be fancied to overcome the odds against 24-year-old Czech Safarova who has a serve to die for and claims to like the clay. That liking is not transparent to this observer who might fancy her to take this on grass but can see the weakness in Safarova's groundstrokes being influential in the outcome here. Flipkens keeps it low and I remember watching their only previous meeting at Estoril back in 2008 where it was a closely contested affair, won 7-5 6-4 by the Belgian who exerted with her return.

When the Safarova serve is not dominating, she is not a difficult opponent to master and I seriously fancy the reverse here despite the huge gulf in current rankings. Value once more lies in taking on the 37 ranked Czech.

Pauline Parmentier to beat Ksenia Pervak - priced around [2.2]

Can't pretend to have seen much of the new Russian on the block - 19 year old Ksenia Pervak - about whom I've heard several dogs barking of late. Her 88 ranking tells me she is not yet that exciting however and this is one where the home support might work in underdog Parmentier's favour. The French player also boasts much greater match experience and in 2009 she was able to blow the diminutive Pervak away 6-2 6-3 in Barnstaple. That will do for me at the odds on offer. The least confident of my picks but another slice of value nevertheless.

Recommended bet is level stakes singles - all five with one, two or three needed to prevail to successfully register a profit.

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Miami Women's Final Betting: Vika to vanquish Maria

Players Under the Microscope / Guy McCrea / 01 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Guy believes Azarenka could be in contention at the Slams

"I can’t shake the feeling that the former world number one might be tired after recent efforts... "

Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka meet to decide the coveted Miami Open title this weekend. Guy McCrea considers who might come out on top of this intriguing clash ...

Victory in Miami can prove crucial to a player's season. Often referred to as the 'fifth Slam', this title carries huge ranking points, prize money and prestige. While it does herald the end of the winter hardcourt swing, winning Miami can also bestow momentum for the rest of the campaign. This weekend's showpiece between two-time former finalist Maria Sharapova and 2009 champion Victoria Azarenka is likely to be no different. The two stars are at different stages of their careers, but for both this final represents an opportunity to show that they can be major players at the upcoming Grand Slams.

Sharapova has done a decent job of making herself relevant again this past month, following up a semi-final run in Indian Wells. By winning her marathon quarter-final against Alexandra Dulgheru, Sharapova re-entered the WTA top ten and with few ranking points to defend over the next three months, the Russian could be back in the top five by the end of Wimbledon. But even if she wins Miami, can Sharapova go on and claim the fourth Grand Slam title she craves? I remain unconvinced.

However motivated she is, I can't see Sharapova [22.0] winning the French Open. Clay is her weakest surface and I don't think she can produce the required energy levels and sustained performance to win seven matches in Paris. In Miami, Sharapova's shown that she remains a formidable ball-striker with remarkable fighting spirit. But post shoulder surgery, her serve is a liability and she can no longer be backed to consistently overpower opponents.

For her part, Azarenka has impressed en route to her second Miami final. The Belarussian survived two-hour battles with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Dominika Cibulkova and dispatched both Kim Clijsters and Vera Zvonareva in straight sets. Due to injuries, Clijsters wasn't entirely at the races but take nothing away from Azarenka for staying focused and finishing the job. She was equally relentless against Zvonareva.

Regular readers know that I've been critical of Azarenka's mental focus in the past. But she has shown bundles this past fortnight. Still only 21-years-old, perhaps now is the time for Azarenka to go deep at the Slams and fulfil her huge potential. Everything I have seen of her these past two weeks suggests she can be a contender at both the French Open and Wimbledon.

Returning to this weekend's final, we can expect a good battle between Sharapova and Azarenka. Both can make spectators reach for their ear plugs with the noise they produce on-court, both are most at home on American hardcourts and they possess similar baseline games. They also have two victories apiece from their four previous meetings.

In many ways, the final will come down to how well both women serve and who can dictate the baseline exchanges. Azarenka didn't even face a break point in her semi-final and if the Belarussian can again hold serve so comfortably, it will put huge pressure on Sharapova's extremely fragile delivery. Azarenka did this to excellent effect to beat Sharapova in their most recent meeting in Stanford last year, punishing the Russian's weak second serves. Sharapova is also prone to plenty of double faults and needless to say she must keep these to a minimum to stay in with a chance against Azarenka.

Sharapova does own an excellent career record (104/36) in three set matches, and has won all five that she's played so far this season. But if you want to back the Russian, I think her best chance of victory is actually to win the title in straight sets, decent value at around 4.2.

I can't shake the feeling that the former world number one might be tired after recent efforts though, which is why I plump for Azarenka to win the coveted Miami crown for a second time, and give herself a timely boost ahead of the clay court campaign.

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Back Azarenka to win Miami at around [1.68]

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Women's Tennis: Changing of the guard at the top of the game

General / Guy McCrea / 19 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Petra Kvitova is a rising star in the women's game

"Kvitova would be my current tip to win a maiden major title come the first week of June."

The women's game has lost many of its biggest names either to injury or retirement in recent times. Guy McCrea asks if we are finally about to witness a new group of women regularly contend at the Grand Slams...

It's been dubbed the "veteran's tour" and if you consider the recent Grand Slam singles champions on the WTA you can see why. Just two of the last 20 major winners were aged under 24 - Maria Sharapova and Ana Ivanovic, both back in 2008.

The WTA's season-ending top ten has seen some fresh faces in recent years led by current world number one Caroline Wozniacki, with Agnieszka Radwanska and Victoria Azarenka also involved. These three and other younger players have enjoyed excellent success at WTA events around the world.

But aside from Wozniacki's run to the 2009 US Open final, the participants in Grand Slam showpieces have largely been players aged over 24.

Of course, this has mainly been due to the dominance of the Williams sisters, plus the Belgian duo of Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin. Between them, this formidable quartet has won 13 of the past 17 Grand Slam singles titles. But there are increasing doubts over how long Serena and Venus will continue to stick around. Serena still hasn't played since winning Wimbledon last year and Venus hasn't since the US Open. Henin has retired again due to a serious elbow problem, while Clijsters also thinks this season will be her last full year on tour. She still plans to play in 2012 - the London Olympics are a target - but will pursue a reduced schedule.

Then there are continuing doubts over Sharapova and Ivanovic. Both are still just 23 years old, but Sharapova has only reached one quarter-final in eight Grand Slams since returning from shoulder surgery. I wonder whether she can ever really dominate players from the baseline as she did in the past. Note her Australian Open fourth round exit to Germany's Andrea Petkovic.

Ivanovic looked like she was getting back to her best late last season. But then Heinz Gunthardt decided he couldn't commit to a full-time coaching role. What followed was a disappointing opening round defeat in Melbourne and a failed trial coaching period with Antonio Van Grichen. The Serb remains talented enough to contend this year. But currently without a coach and short on victories, you wouldn't bet a great deal on it.

So who are the women to take advantage of this at the majors? Wozniacki (currently [11.0] on Betfair to win the French Open) is the obvious choice. Now back at number one after Kim Clijsters took the top spot for one week, the Dane will again have to field questions as to whether she deserves to be at the summit without having won a Grand Slam singles title.

Wozniacki was close to ending her wait at the Australian Open, but couldn't convert a match point against China's Li Na in the semi-finals. The thing is, although she hasn't been to another major final since losing to Clijsters in New York in 2009, Wozniacki has hardly underperformed at the Slams. She has reached the second week every time since then, including two semi-finals. With doubts over so many of the other older names in the women's game, Wozniacki will surely win a maiden major soon - particularly if she can rekindle her form of the second half of 2010 where she combined trademark defensive strengths with a willingness to try and be more aggressive on her forehand.

Who else? Well, there's lefty Petra Kvitova. The 20-year-old has already recorded some excellent results at the Slams - most notably her run to last year's Wimbledon semi-finals. Kvitova also reached the Australian Open quarters in January. The Czech has improved hugely even since last summer. She is fitter thanks to intense off-season training in the Slovakian mountains and appears less prone to concentration lapses than in the past.

I asked Clijsters about Kvitova at last week's WTA Premier event in Paris and the Belgian is in little doubt that the Czech will become a regular fixture at the back end of the majors. She reached the fourth round at Roland Garros on her Grand Slam debut and with few standout contenders on clay in the women's game (especially since Henin's retirement) Kvitova would be my current tip to win a maiden major title come the first week of June.

Of the others, both Radwanska and Azarenka have been second week fixtures for a while now (Radwanska has four, and Azarenka three previous quarter final appearances) but I would still put Kvitova above them. I doubt Radwanska has the power to win a Slam, while does Azarenka have the mental toughness yet to survive seven matches at a major?

Nevertheless, you can't get away from the feeling that for this trio and the other emerging talents on the WTA, the next couple of years present a wonderful opportunity to regularly contend for the sport's major prizes.

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