Showing posts with label potential. Show all posts
Showing posts with label potential. Show all posts
August 24, 2013
September 2, 2012
Six Potential Champions League Upsets: City to ruffle Real's feathers?
"A pre-Abu Dhabi cash injection Man City would have been no match for Real Madrid at the Bernabeu in Group D. A lot has changed in the last four years, however, and the blue side of Manchester can now compete with some of the world’s most illustrious clubs."
The Champions League group stage begins on September 18. Alex Lee provides us with half-a-dozen long shots to get your betting mind ticking before the big kick-off
Difficult to favour draw specialists
Statistically, the most commonly occurring result in football is the home win. Dynamo Kiev, however, qualified for the group stage of the Champions League on the back of an impressive away win at Borussia Monchengladbach. Their Group A opponents PSG on 18 September, however, are currently draw specialists and don't have the kind of home form that will instil any fear in Ukrainian circles. A lay of PSG @ 1.75/7 or under is therefore one way of covering both the draw and the away win.
Schalke can shade it
Sometimes, when assessing a team's UEFA Champions League chances, a good way is to compare the relative merits of its domestic league against that of its opponents. While Olympiacos have home advantage in their first Group B match against Schalke, the Greek league pales into insignificance against an ultra-competitive Bundesliga and this is why Schalke are a great shout for an away win at a price of around the 2.915/8 mark.
Malaga to get case of home jitters
In Group C, Malaga face Zenit St Petersburg, who are unbeaten in their travels this season. While the home side has got off to a good start domestically, a fixture in the Champions League group stage is completely unknown territory for them. Zenit, on the other hand, are hardened competitors at this level and qualified for the knock-out phase last season. For the above reasons, it might be wise to lay a blinking-into-the-UEFA Champions League-headlamps Malaga @ 2.35/4.
City are the Real deal
A pre-Abu Dhabi cash injection Man City would have been no match for Real Madrid at the Bernabeu in Group D. A lot has changed in the last four years, however, and the blue side of Manchester can now compete with some of the world's most illustrious clubs. The proud owners of one of Europe's most parsimonious back lines, Manchester City are more than capable of forcing a draw or sneaking a win in Madrid when they lock horns later this month. A lay of Real Madrid, therefore @ 1.674/6 is a potential steal.
Benfica to provide tough test
While Celtic are the undisputed kings of Scotland at present, the lack of any real competition due to Rangers' fall from grace means that Benfica will be of a much higher calibre than the Hoops are used to welcoming to Celtic Park in Group G. Furthermore, the away team's odds of around 2.111/10 are just too good to turn down when you consider they brushed aside Spanish aristocrats Real Madrid, albeit in a friendly, 5-2 during pre-season.
Nordsjælland can shock Shakhtar
When it comes to causing an upset in football, there is often nothing better than the unknown quantity. Nordsjælland, from Denmark, fit the bill perfectly. With a Champions League place secured on the back of winning their first ever domestic league title, the Danish minnows have nothing to lose. Meanwhile, the home fans of Shakhtar Donetsk will be expecting a comfortable win, which as we all know can bring considerable pressure. A lay of Shakhtar at around 1.42/5 is a cheap option for those of you looking for an in-running trade if Nordsjælland somehow get their noses in front.
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October 5, 2011
X Factor 2011: Habibis emerges as the potential winner
X-Factor 
/ Mike Norman / 05 October 2011 / Leave a Comment 
X Factor contender Sophie Habibis
"Very little of Sophie Habibis was shown during the audition process but as the weeks commence people are going to take note of how good she actually is and her odds will surely shorten."
Little was shown of Sophie Habibis during the audition process, but since Bootcamp the 19-year-old Londoner has emerged as a big contender to take this year's crown says Mike Norman.
Don't you just hate deadlines? For the last 48 hours I've been desperately trying to find out what this BIG TWIST is going to be ahead of Saturday's first live show. But I've failed miserably, and now I must make this year's X Factor selections without having a clue what's going on!
I sent emails to everyone who's anyone in the reality TV world (except Jack Houghton) asking for some insight into this weekend's surprise, and the only replies I received were from Syco TV saying that Louis Walsh will be beheaded live on air for even thinking of taking Goldie Cheung to the final, and an email from my boss saying that Mike Norman will be the red hot favourite in the First Elimination market if he doesn't get his preview posted. Charming!
So whatever the twist is going to be I'm afraid I'm completely in the dark, though most of my selections won't be affected by whatever happens on Saturday night.
I've watched all 16 finalists as much as I possibly can. Actually, that's a lie because there is no footage of 'super' group The Risk as they were only put together after the Judges Houses stage was complete. For the record The Risk started off as five solo performers and a group called The Keys. The five individuals then formed a group (called The Risk) only for two of them to be later axed whilst the three that were retained joined one member from The Keys. They were then re-named... err... The Risk!
I think we should all be thankful that The Risk's mentor Tulisa Contostavlos doesn't breed dogs or we'd have a three-legged chocolate brown German bearded collie walking the streets!
I've wrote a few words on each of the 16 finalists here, and from that you can probably deduce who I like and don't like, but after much deliberation I've narrowed an initial five or six-long list down to just two selections in the Winner market.
I've been a massive fan of [5.0] favourite Janet Devlin since the first time that I saw her, and if anyone had have said to me a few days ago that she won't be one of my selections I'd have probably collapsed in a fit of hysterics. But here I am deserting her in favour of 19-year-old Londoner Sophie Habibis. Habibis wasn't even on my radar two weeks ago, but ever since Bootcamp I haven't been able to stop watching clips of her at every opportunity. I'm now officially hooked on her.
I'm not a huge follower of trends in competitions like this either, but we have seven years of results to go on now and it's fair to say that the trends are starting to have an impact, especially when your fancied contestant fits these trends as well as being able to sing.
The last six winners of the X Factor have been in the Boys or Girls category, whilst five of those six winners were between the ages of 18 and 21. Also worthy of note is the location of the previous winners; every one has come from an area with a huge population - Newcastle (Joe McElderry), Manchester (Shayne Ward), Scotland (Leon Jackson), Essex (Matt Cardle) and London (Steve Brookstein, Leona Lewis and Alexandra Burke).
Habibis fits perfectly into all these pointers, so at [14.0] to back, she is very much worth a wager at this stage. Very little of her was shown during the audition process but as the weeks commence people are going to take note of how good she actually is and her odds will surely shorten. And above all else she is a great singer and looks to have a very unpretentious personality.
My other selection is the very funny and likeable Craig Colton at [18.0]. Again he fit's the profile of the previous winners though it is a worry that two of the other Boys - Marcus Collins ([14.0]) and James Michael ([18.0]) - also come from Liverpool. If Colton can see off them two and get that part of the country supporting him then he will go far.
One of my strongest recommendations is Johnnie Robinson at [4.2] in the Over 25s market. I can't emphasise enough how likeable this 45-year-old is, and I can see the whole country - except for my boss that is - falling in love with his infectious personality. He's not the greatest singer in the world, but I think the public will do everything in their power to keep him in the competition as long as they can. He is going to be an uplifting journey.
If anyone knows what the much anticipated twist is - or has an idea of what it is - then please leave a comment below. I can officially confirm however that Wagner isn't returning... and neither are Jedward, fingers crossed!
Recommended Bets
Back Sophie Habibis @ [14.0] in Winner market (1pt)
Back Craig Colton @ [18.0] in Winner market (1pt)
Back Johnny Robinson @ [4.2] in Over 25s market (2pts)
Already advised
Back Kelly Rowland @ [2.6] in Winning Mentor market (1pt)
It's official, this year's 16 X Factor Finalists have been revealed and the betting is about to intensify. Mike Norman explains......
Bootcamp is looming and Mike Norman already knows some of the acts that have made it to the final TV stages, but who has impressed during the last few weeks of X Factor auditions?...
After a few more audition shows the whole nation is talking about a 21-year-old Scottish girl, but Mike Norman wasn't as impressed as everyone else and believes she won't appeal enough to win....
May 22, 2011
French Open Women's Draw: Five potential first round upsets
French Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 21 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Gary believes Vania King could cause an upset in round one
"No way would I want to back Cornet as favourite – even with the partisan crowd on her side. The value clearly lies with Voracova at around [2.6].
The Boz tuned in to the French Open Women's draw on Friday and he's been at the form books ever since, working out his potential first round shocks. The following are his top five to turn over the odds.
Vania King to beat Dominika Cibulkova - priced around [5.0]
Absolute monster price for what is essentially a very tight match up. The Slovakian 22- year-old Cibulkova is in good form and is arguably the greater clay court player but she has a 0-2 head to head to overcome and the first of those defeats was the classic match of three tie-breaks which tells you how close this one is to call. I'd have it [2.1] the pair.
The recent match, at the 2010 Australian Open, produced another close three setter which the American won 7-5 in the last. She has slid down the rankings a tad since those days and, with both wins on hard court, it's perhaps easy to overestimate the current 94 ranked player as she attempts to dump the seed. The price being so wrong as a reflection of the difference between them makes me want to bet! I can't resist such an over generous offer.
Romani Oprandi to beat Ekaterina Makarova - priced around [3.2]
If you take the previous form between 77 ranked Italian Oprandi and 36 ranked Russian Makarova literally you can only make one favourite. Oprandi holds a 2-0 head to head score and both wins came back in 2006 on her favoured clay surface that they'll meet on here. In the first three sets between the two, Makarova won only four games, going down 6-1 6-3 and 6-0 before rallying to tie ten games all in the two final sets of the three set match in Denain.
The Russian was only 17 then and pretty green and of course she has improved immeasurably since and passed her 25-year-old opponent in the rankings but that head to head form is never forgotten and always influential. Oprandi comes in to the game knowing how to beat Makarova and beat her convincingly while Makarova comes in with the reverse feeling and the pressure on her to justify her revised rating since last they met.
That's a strong reason for taking the lesser ranked player in my book, especially when you are being offered such a price differential.
Renata Voracova to beat Alize Cornet - priced at around [2.6]
For 122 ranked Czech Voracova, this is a first appearance at Roland Garros and she is likely to be in the bear pit against local heart throb Alize Cornet who has herself slipped to a lowly 80 ranking after 12 months of indifferent form. Back in 2007, great things were forecast for the 21-year-old French woman as she triumphed in the junior French Open. She's lost her way a fair bit since then and has an unimpressive head to head against the 27-year-old to boot. Defeats at Poiters in 2007 and Linz in 2010 were both in straight sets and Cornet has that ability to simply not turn up. No way would I want to back her as favourite - even with the partisan crowd on her side in this (just as much a negative as a positive depending on how well you are playing). The value clearly lies in the debutante at around [2.6].
Kirsten lipkens to beat Lucie Safarova priced around [4.8]
The diminutive Belgian has dropped to 96 in the rankings but can be fancied to overcome the odds against 24-year-old Czech Safarova who has a serve to die for and claims to like the clay. That liking is not transparent to this observer who might fancy her to take this on grass but can see the weakness in Safarova's groundstrokes being influential in the outcome here. Flipkens keeps it low and I remember watching their only previous meeting at Estoril back in 2008 where it was a closely contested affair, won 7-5 6-4 by the Belgian who exerted with her return.
When the Safarova serve is not dominating, she is not a difficult opponent to master and I seriously fancy the reverse here despite the huge gulf in current rankings. Value once more lies in taking on the 37 ranked Czech.
Pauline Parmentier to beat Ksenia Pervak - priced around [2.2]
Can't pretend to have seen much of the new Russian on the block - 19 year old Ksenia Pervak - about whom I've heard several dogs barking of late. Her 88 ranking tells me she is not yet that exciting however and this is one where the home support might work in underdog Parmentier's favour. The French player also boasts much greater match experience and in 2009 she was able to blow the diminutive Pervak away 6-2 6-3 in Barnstaple. That will do for me at the odds on offer. The least confident of my picks but another slice of value nevertheless.
Recommended bet is level stakes singles - all five with one, two or three needed to prevail to successfully register a profit.
It's day one at Roland Garros and Ben Caudell is here to select the best bets and find the value that could give you a winning start......
On the eve of the French Open, Sean Calvert selects five matches in which punters could find the first round value......
She is the world number one but still doesn't have a Grand Slam singles title. Guy McCrea as if Caroline Wozniacki will end that wait at the French Open ......
May 21, 2011
French Open Men's Draw: Five potential first round upsets
French Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 21 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
"In contrast to Verdasco, Monaco warmed up nicely with some fine displays in Dusseldorf this week and he has to be backed as the underdog here."
On the eve of the French Open, Sean Calvert selects five matches in which punters could find the first round value...
Marcos Baghdatis [1.8] v Frederico Gil [2.2]
After suffering a bout of flu a few months ago, Marcos's form has really taken a dive, with just two wins from 11 matches and six losses as odds-on favourite.
The Cypriot lost in the first round in his warm-up event in Nice to Julien Benneteau in straight sets and he hasn't won a set on the dirt since beating Alejandro Falla in Madrid.
His record at Roland Garros is also poor, with three first round losses from six starts and Baggy has never beaten anyone ranked higher than number 62 in the world at the tournament.
In two of his last three visits to the French Open, he's lost in straight sets in the first round and he was also beaten by Gil the last time they met.
That match was on Baggy's favoured hard-courts, so this one has upset written all over it with Gil posting wins over Gael Monfils and Florian Mayer already in 2011. Back the Portuguese at around [2.2]
Fernando Verdasco [1.78] v Juan Monaco [2.3]
Verdasco has had a really poor year so far and has dropped down to number 17 in the world rankings from being inside the top-10 this time last year.
And just when it looked like he was finding a bit of form in Rome, he blew three consecutive match points on his own serve against Robin Soderling and went on to lose the match.
His already brittle confidence must be shot now and what he doesn't want first up here is a match with Monaco, who has won five of their last six meetings and seven out of nine overall.
The Argentine has won all but one of their clay meetings and also won the only one at Roland Garros in 2006.
In contrast to Verdasco, Monaco warmed up nicely with some fine displays in Dusseldorf this week and he has to be backed as the underdog here.
Richard Gasquet v Radek Stepanek
By rights, Gasquet should be brimming with confidence after beating Roger Federer in Rome after being a set and a break down, but I won't be going anywhere near the [1.25] about him beating Steps in the first round here.
The Gasman's record at Roland Garros is atrocious, with four first round losses from seven starts and a solitary last 32 place his best result in Paris.
Gasquet has always struggled with the weight of expectancy and beating Federer win won't help in that regard.
The inconsistency is still there, with his first round loss against Daniel Gimeno-Traver in Madrid when around the same price as this one being a prime example.
Steps is not the force of old, but he does well here, with the last 16 being his best and he has just one first round loss from his seven visits to Roland Garros.
He loves an upset and stunned Fernando Gonzalez here in straight sets in 2007 when Gonzo was world number five, as well as beating Tommy Robredo in 2008.
The Czech's recent form is good, with a run to the semis in Munich before retiring with a leg injury, which is a concern, but he's still worth a punt at a handy price.
Daniel Gimeno-Traver [1.75] v Robin Haase [2.3]
This one should be tough for Gimeno-Traver against a big match, big occasion player such as Haase.
The Dutchman has only been beaten in the main draw of Slams by current or former top-10 players and the Spaniard is surely only favourite for this because he finally found some form in Madrid recently.
Prior to that run to the last 16 in Spain, he had lost 13 of 15 matches in 2011 and he's never beaten anyone ranked inside the top-90 in the world at Roland Garros.
GT's overall career record is 40 wins and 72 losses, which is hardly inspiring, but it's his record after losing the first set that leads me to question his temperament.
The Spaniard has won just seven of 70 matches when he's gone a set down and Haase rarely goes down without a fight in Slams, as his last three results show.
A four set loss to Andy Roddick in Melbourne followed a five set loss to Nadal at Wimbledon and another five setter at Roland Garros to Nico Almagro.
Haase was also a regular winner on clay on the Challenger circuit last year and has a win over Nikolay Davydenko on dirt this season, so all-in-all I think he could be value in this one.
Lleyton Hewitt [3.0] v Albert Montanes [1.5]
Hewitt makes his comeback after foot surgery at Roland Garros this week after three months out and Tony Roche is sure to have the former world number one spot on for this.
The Aussie's record at Roland Garros is very respectable, with only Rafa Nadal (four times!) David Ferrer, Gaston Gaudio, Tommy Robredo, Guillermo Canas and Juan Carlos Ferrero beating Hewitt here since 2001.
Montanes, despite being the higher ranked and being generally regarded as more proficient on the dirt, has been below par lately on the clay, with early losses in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid and Rome - the latter two in the first round.
The calibre of opponent that he's been losing to is a concern for Montanes backers, with Sergiy Stakhovsky, Pablo Andujar, and Feliciano Lopez all besting him on his favourite surface.
The pair have met twice before with Hewitt winning both and with their similar grinding styles, this could come down to mental strength with Hewitt likely to come out on top.
It's day one at Roland Garros and Ben Caudell is here to select the best bets and find the value that could give you a winning start......
The Boz tuned in to the French Open Women's draw on Friday and he's been at the form books ever since, working out his potential first round shocks. The following are his top five to turn over the odds....
She is the world number one but still doesn't have a Grand Slam singles title. Guy McCrea as if Caroline Wozniacki will end that wait at the French Open ......
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