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/ Ben Caudell / 01 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Nadal consoling Federer has been the familar story in recent times but tonight it could be different
"With both men playing well on the hard-courts and almost immune to any sort of pressure, I am going to edge with the better value and take Roger Federer to defeat Nadal tonight."
It's not often we see Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal playing in a semi-final because they're normally the last two standing but here's a rare chance to see them slogging it out in the round before. But which of the two gets the nod from Ben Caudell?
One of the most profound rivalries in the modern day era between two of the greatest players to have ever graced the tennis world will face off at midnight tonight on the stadium court for an all-important place in the final here in Miami.
Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have been paired against one another on no less than 22 occasions during their amazing careers. Incredibly, seven of those 22 matches were played in Grand Slam finals, 12 on clay courts and (not including Exhibition events) only four of these head-to-heads have taken place on outdoor hard courts.
The Spaniard definitely has the upper-hand in terms of their rivalry leading the head-to-head series 14-8. Not surprisingly, the majority of these wins have come on his favoured surface the European red clay, in which he is so dominant. Nadal also has a 3-1 record against the Swiss champ on outdoor hard courts.
Having stayed up until the early hours of the morning to watch Nadal scrape through an entertaining match against Tomas Berdych in three sets, I now have niggling doubts about the 24 year-old's fitness. The world No. 1 twice called a trainer onto the court to remedy a right arm shoulder problem and stiff neck that appeared to hamper the Spaniard after he took the first set.
With these doubts in mind and the fact that Roger Federer has had virtually an extra day's rest due to the early retirement of Gilles Simon in the quarter-final round, I am confident that the Fed Express will take advantage of the injury worries that may be playing Rafa's mind he is worth backing at [2.34] in the Match Odds.
Furthermore, Roger holds a 22-3 match record this season (all three losses have come against Novak Djokovic). He opened up the 2011 campaign with his 67th career title in Doha in his 96th final and he's the all-time leader in ATP World Tour Masters 1000 match wins (231) with a career mark of 231-69. Federer also has two Miami titles to his name (2005 - 2006) and a great record against left-handers winning, 12 of his last 13.
One more important stat to take not of is that in their previous 22 matches, the winner of the first set has gone on to win 17 times, including in all of the last 11 encounters.
With both men playing well on the hard-courts and almost immune to any sort of pressure, I am going to edge with the better value and take Roger Federer to defeat Nadal tonight.
Recommended Bet:
Back Roger Federer @ [2.34] to win match
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