Showing posts with label inform. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inform. Show all posts
August 31, 2013
July 16, 2012
Home And Away: Happy ever Aftur for in-form visitors
Michael Lintorn is filling in for Jonno Turner this week. Evidently, he can't compete on the gag front. Will his tips compensate...
The outcome of the SFL's meeting on Friday has prompted the TV companies to apologise to all subscribers for wrongly advertising that they could watch Rangers in 3D. They meant Rangers in D3.
The Gers' demise has inspired us to follow suit by digging down the divisions for our first pick, all the way to Iceland's third tier, where Afturelding's recent success suggests that they can capitalise on HK Kopavogur's sudden surrender of form.
HK Kopavogur have shifted from a run of four wins in five to a four-match spell without a triumph which represents the second longest lean streak in the entire division.
By winning five of their last six, Afturelding have surged past them and all the way up to fourth in the table, with the opportunity to leap to second, two points off the top, by prevailing here.
Their away displays haven't matched those on their own patch but, glossing over a hammering at rock bottom KFR, there have been signs of improvement, with two of their last three road trips in all competitions resulting in 3-1 wins.
Also in their favour is the fact that they are the most prolific team in the league, and they have been at their most productive lately. With a huge reward for three points, they stand a fine chance of making it six wins in seven.
Bet 1: Afturelding (AWAY) to win @ 2.941/1
A group of chess enthusiasts were kicked out of the hotel I stayed at this weekend for discussing their victories. Turns out the manager can't stand chess nuts boasting in an open foyer.
Our second tip takes us to a fixture as delicately poised as a chess match in the Finnish Veikkausliiga, as Lahti bid to put more distance between themselves and the bottom of the table against faltering title chasers IFK Mariehamn.
The hosts have shown no sign of being scarred by their shock 2010 relegation on their return to the top flight, piling seven wins on the board already.
Their home form should ensure that there is no nervy conclusion this time, and they showed that their strong record in front of their fans since promotion is sustainable a fortnight ago by beating table-topping FC Inter 4-3.
IFK Mariehamn by contrast have seen their challenge at the top compromised by poor away results. Their last five encounters on the road in all competitions have produced just one win compared to three defeats in which they have conceded ten goals.
It is a similar story for them when visiting Lahti, collecting a point at best on their last eight trips there.
Bet 2: Lahti (HOME) to win @ 2.761/1
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March 21, 2012
Sony Ericsson Tips: In-form Matosevic to keep good run going
Events 
/ Ben Caudell / 21 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Marinko Matosevic has hit a good streak
"My bet of the day is to back Marinko Matosevic of Australia to defeat Robin Haase of the Netherlands @ [1.9] in the match odds market."
Ben Caudell begins a week of tipping with a look at the first round of this Masters Series event in Miami and an Aussie on a hot streak is his first bet...
A stomach bug swept through the locker room in Indian Wells last week with eight payers falling victim to the virus during the early rounds of the tournament.
That event was hit by a number of withdrawals and that has continued on the other side of the US with six players retiring on day one of qualifying in the Miami Masters Series, followed by two more yesterday.
As a heads-up, remember that if a player retires before the first set has been completed all match odds bets will be voided. Should a player retire at any stage after the completion of the first set all bets stand.
Although we are unsure about the true circumstances surrounding any retirement, having sifted through many of today's matches there a couple of players to keep an eye on due to illness or injury.
The first player to look out for is Philipp Petzschner of Germany who has lost six of his last seven matches overall and five of his last six when priced as a favourite (2.00 - 2.99) therefore consider backing Ivan Dodig @ [2.1] especially seeing as the German recently stated the following on twitter:
14 March - Hey guys, I am injured since a couple of weeks, as some of you already realized...
Tommy Haas is another player to oppose. He retired from the Dallas Challenger event only last week due to a stiff back and has poor form in Miami and at Master Series level losing four of his last five matches. His Opponent, Guillaume Ruffin should be considered @ [2.86].
The Frenchman has won through two rounds of qualifying without losing a set and has won four of his last five matches in the USA.
My bet of the day however is to back Marinko Matosevic of Australia to defeat Robin Haase of the Netherlands @ [1.9] in the match odds market.
Twenty-six-year-old Matosevic has risen from 203 to a career high of 122 in the world rankings since the start of the year and has won 15 of his last 17 matches. Since February Marinko has triumphed at the Caloundra Challenger tournament as well as reaching the final of Delray Beach, an event he had to qualify for.
Although this will be the first competitive match between the two, Matosevic comes into the match with a superior surface rating and match rating (Match Ratings assess form specific to the current tournament conditions and the opposing player). Moreover, Haase has lost six of his last seven matches in Master Series events and 50% of his last ten matches on tour and is in dire form. The [1.9] currently on offer for a Matosevic win in my view represents a decent value bet.
Recommended Bet
Back Marinko Matosevic to defeat Robin Haase @ [1.9]
Now 23 matches undefeated after victory in Indian Wells, Victoria Azarenka leads the WTA's stars to Miami for an equally important event - the Sony Ericsson Open. But Guy McCrea thinks her brilliant run could finally end this fortnight......
It's finals day in Indian Wells and the greatest player of his generation will go off as a heavy favourite to win another title - and Sean Calvert can't find a reason to oppose him......
It's men's semi-final day at the BNP Paribas Open with the headline act being another instalment of Nadal v Federer and Sean Calvert is backing the Spaniard to extend his good record against the Swiss master...
November 22, 2011
Find Me a 100 Winner: In-form Kamte can land big odds
Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 22 November 2011 / Leave a Comment 
James Kamte
"Unlike almost everyone around the same odds, Kamte is at least in good form. Moreover, he should enjoy an advantage over the substantial European contingent on these slow, undulating greens."
Local favourite Kamte finished top 10 last week and knows how it feels to win in his homeland. Could he be under-estimated at monster odds of [160.0]?
Such are the inevitable ups and downs of punting, it is probably best to focus on the positives, rather than dwell on what might have been. It would be easy to bemoan my luck at going so close with Daniel Chopra last week, especially given that the Swede had an eagle putt on the final hole to reach a play-off. However on the other hand, 30 units profit in any tournament is obviously welcome and, lets be honest, my man bottled it after carrying a substantial lead into Sunday. The upshot is that, with just a few weeks left of 2011, this trading advice column has reduced it's annual loss to 11.5 units. Given how hard results have been, and that I haven't found that elusive 100 winner, that's a tolerable return.
Not that the year is over yet of course. There are still a few weeks left to turn that small loss into a profit, although this week it does feel like looking for a needle in a haystack. Triple-figure priced winners simply never happen in Australia or the World Cup, so that just leaves the South African Open.
And to say that there is a dearth of classy or in-form candidates within our price range here is an understatement. With that in mind, I'm going in here with just the one pick, James Kamte at [160.0]. Unlike almost everyone around the same odds, Kamte is at least in good form. Moreover, he should enjoy an advantage over the substantial European contingent on these slow, undulating greens.
Six of the top-ten at Leopard Creek last week were South Africans, one of whom was Kamte, who shot 69/66 over the weekend to share ninth place. All of the other leading South Africans are well below triple-figures, yet on the basis of their Sunshine Tour form, he isn't markedly inferior to the likes of Garth Mulroy and Hennie Otto. Kamte has won four times on that tour, most recently in October at the BMG Classic. Unlike many of his compatriots, Kamte has also won overseas, on the Asian Tour. That's not a bad return for a 29 year-old.
I'm not trying to be too ambitious with the trading plan, placing the first lay target at just [25.0]. If Kamte hits that first target, we'll quadruple our two unit outlay.
Recommended Bets
2u James Kamte @ [160.0]
Place order to lay 8u @ [25.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]
Updated 2011 Stats: -11.5u
Two very different golfers attract Paul Krishnamurty's eye ahead of the Barclays Singapore Open...
This week's event in China is a tough one for punters but Paul Krishnamurty has identified a couple of big hitters who could be ready to return to winning ways....
Under-rated Englishman should be in his element at Valderrama, says Paul Krishnamurty, who advises taking the three figure odds while you can...
March 13, 2011
Indian Wells Betting: Back an in-form trio
Events / Sean Calvert / 12 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Ferrer should despatch big serving Ivo Karlovic
"Ferrer takes on Ivo Karlovic and has a 2-0 head-to-head record over the Croatian, who broke the world’s fastest serve record last week in Davis Cup. But Ivo still didn’t win either of his Davis Cup games and hasn’t beaten anyone of note since his comeback from a long term foot injury."
Sean Calvert has found three sure things and recommends you back them in an acca
Yesterday's defeat for Japan's Kei Nishikori was hardly surprising given the news that shocked the world a matter of hours after I made the Day Two picks.
Day Three at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden sees some of the big guns begin their singles campaigns, with Andy Murray among them.
The Scot tries to get his year back on track against Donald Young and he couldn't have hoped for a much easier draw.
Once quoted by a certain high street bookmaker as low as [2.5] to win Wimbledon in his career after an incredible amount of hype as a teen star, Young is yet to break the top-75 and is currently at 143.
Murray should win this at a canter, but at [1.04] and in a slump with a dodgy wrist, I won't be touching that one.
Instead, I fancy a treble today that pays around [2.26] which involves David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro and Alexandr Dolgopolov.
Ferrer takes on Ivo Karlovic and has a 2-0 head-to-head record over the Croatian, who broke the world's fastest serve record last week in Davis Cup. But Ivo still didn't win either of his Davis Cup games and hasn't beaten anyone of note since his comeback from a long term foot injury.
Karlovic couldn't take a set off Ferrer when he was at his best, so I can't see him winning today against the Spaniard, who has a 14-2 record this season, with two titles and is back up to number six in the world.
The Croatian also has a poor 4-7 record at Indian Wells and Ferrer is a confident selection.
Ferrer's doubles partner this week, Almagro, is in rare form at the moment, also with two titles and an 18-3 record in 2011 and he should have far too many weapons for journeyman Michael Russell.
The 32-year-old American has beaten Almagro before and had a good win over Kevin Anderson in the first round here, but the Spaniard is at the peak of his powers and should be too classy for him this time with confidence at a high.
Finally, Dolgopolov is also in fine form, boasting a 13-6 record in
2011 and is at a career high of 23 in the world following a quarter final effort in Melbourne and an excellent Golden Swing on the clay in South America.
His opponent, Victor Hanescu is on his way down the rankings after a couple of years in and around the top-30 or so and hasn't been past the third round of any tournament since New Haven last autumn.
The 29-year-old Romanian has only played five outdoor hard-court matches since the US Open last year and is much happier on clay, with a 19-32 record on hard over the last four years.
Hanescu has a 3-7 record in 2011 and hasn't won a completed match against a top-50 player since beating Michael Berrer on clay last April. And the last time he beat a top-50 player on a hard-court was over Jurgen Melzer in Canada in 2009.
Recommended Betfair Multiple Bet:
Ferrer to beat Karlovic [1.26]
Almagro to beat Russell [1.32]
Dolgopolov to beat Hanescu [1.3]
Sean Calvert has found three sure things and recommends you back them in an acca...
Sean Calvert picks the best bet from today's action at Indian Wells....
It may not be the most high-profile match from today's action but this one provides one of the best betting opportunities......
February 9, 2011
Totesport Trophy Betting: Soldatino to triumph for in-form Henderson
Tipping / Stuart Jones / 08 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Triumph hurdle winner Soldatino looks the pick of Nicky Henderson's trio in this Saturday's totesport Trophy
"Salden Licht was better than ever on the Flat during the autumn and mirrored that progress when returned to hurdles at Exeter on New Year’s Day".
Just two favourites (the well-backed Essex in 2005 and Landing Light in 2001) have obliged in the last ten renewals of the totesport Trophy, perhaps not unsurprisingly given the typically high quality field and competitive nature of what is the richest handicap hurdle of the season, but Timeform's Stuart Jones reckons it's not worth looking far beyond the market leaders this year...
Nicky Henderson has an excellent record in the race and has been responsible for four of the last eleven winners, most recently when Geos took the 2004 renewal. Henderson's gung-ho approach towards the contest is nothing new and the Seven Barrows trainer has three entries at this stage.
The ex-French gelding Solix is the most prominent in the market of Henderson's trio, despite being a tricky one to assess. Capable of smart form over hurdles for Guy Cherel in France, Solix beat Bel la Vie in a Grade 3 hurdle at Auteuil prior to finishing a creditable fourth behind that rival in a Grade 1 contest there in November. He's undoubtedly an interesting recruit for connections, but he hardly looks thrown in from a mark of 152 and better value looks to be had elsewhere.
The most interesting of Henderson's entries, from a betting point of view, anyway, is last year's Triumph Hurdle winner Soldatino. Unbeaten on all three starts as a juvenile, he made an eye-catching return from ten months off when sixth to Tiger O'Toole at Ascot last month, travelling powerfully until the lack of a recent outing told. Soldatino remains open to improvement and appeals as the one most likely to add to his trainer's excellent record here.
Alan King is a trainer very much back on the up and also looks set to go into the race mob-handed, with Walkon, Iolith, Salden Licht and The Betchworth Kid all amongst the five-day entries.
Walkon was a very smart juvenile in 2008/9, runner-up to Zaynar in the Triumph before winning a Grade 1 Hurdle at Aintree, and showed all that old ability was intact when runner-up in that race won by Tiger O'Toole at Ascot. However, he's always shaped as if he'd be ideally suited by two and a half miles, and he may well prove vulnerable to speedier types back at the minimum trip.
Salden Licht is the least exposed of King's quartet and his profile is not all that dissimilar to Manyriverstocross, who finished third in the corresponding event for the same yard last season. Salden Licht was better than ever on the Flat during the autumn and mirrored that progress when returned to hurdles at Exeter on New Year's Day, always travelling powerfully and just nudged out to beat Sir Kezbaah by a length and a half. That form has held up well subsequently and Salden Licht makes more appeal than his shorter-priced stablemate.
Get Me Out of Here took his unbeaten run over hurdles to five when beating Ronaldo des Mottes in the corresponding event last term and met with defeat for the first time when beaten narrowly by Menorah in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham next time. Jonjo O'Neill's representative hasn't been in quite the same form on either start this season, however, pulling too hard when sixth to that same rival in the Greatwood last time, and others look more solid betting propositions for the time being.
Bothy progressed well in novice company last term, winning his first three starts over hurdles, and he took a big step forward on his return when just touched off by Menorah in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham (receiving 24 lb). Bothy's latest run in a bumper is probably best ignored, and he's one of the likelier candidates, especially if the ground came up testing.
John Quinn's Recession Proof won two of his three starts in novice company, finding only the very useful Dunraven Strom too strong at Ascot. He also created a good impression when successful in a jumpers' bumper at Southwell in late-December, but it's a big ask to expect him to make an impact at this level from an opening mark of 134.
Final Approach led home a 1-2 for Willie Mullins in this year's renewal of the valuable MCR Hurdle (formerly the Pierse) at Leopardstown. Owned by the managing director of the race sponsor, the well-backed Final Approach quickened up smartly to beat Call the Police by two lengths. Although still unexposed over timber, Final Approach will need to improve plenty if he's to defy a mark 16 lb higher.
Sweet My Lord is another lightly-raced raced performer representing the Mullins yard, and after just three completed outings (fell on two of first three outings) he surely remains open to further improvement. His jumping shouldn't be a problem - if anything it looked an asset when winning easily at Limerick last time - and he certainly deserves to take his chance at this level.
Recommendations
Back Soldatino @ [13.0] and Salden Licht @ [10.0] to win the totesport Trophy at Newbury.
Just two favourites (the well-backed Essex in 2005 and Landing Light in 2001) have obliged in the last ten renewals of the totesport Trophy, perhaps not unsurprisingly given the typically high quality field and competitive nature of what is the richest handicap hurdle of the season, but Timeform's Stuart Jones reckons it's not worth looking far beyond the market leaders this year......
Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor analyses the performances of three winners from Saturday who are all set to be seen next on the opening day of the Festival......
Today's Follow The Money movers come from Sedgefield and Southwell......
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