Home and Away: Valencia nothing to lose as PSG miss Zlatan

Bet 1: Valencia (AWAY) @ 4.2
Bet 2: Notts County (HOME) @ 2.3

Jonno Turner looks to select two sides for the win at decent value tonight - focusing on Valencia's trip to France, and a key game for play-off chasing Notts County.

We're off to France for our first pick of the day - and Paris Saint Germain look to protect a 2-1 first leg lead, as they welcome Valencia to the Parc des Princes in the Champions League.

The hosts looked set to keep an all-important clean sheet in Spain in that night, but a goal from Vicente Guaita in the dying moments threw the tie into dissaray, and the Spaniards will hold real hope of getting themselves back into this tonight.

Carlo Ancelotti's side will be missing key players Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Marco Verratti, who are both suspended from the first leg, and they will be big absences to them in the final third - as they attempt to get back on track following a rocky performance against Reims at the weekend.

A 1-0 loss in that game showed up the flaws of PSG - and with the pressure mounting on Ancelotti, it will be interesting to see how they respond to the many questions being asked of them in this clash.

The loss of Ibra in particular can not be underestimated. The Swede has smashed 22 goals in his 24 appearances this campaign, and his side looked lacking in ideas at the weekend without him to lead the line.

Much has been made of the hosts impressive form on their own patch, and they are unbeaten since November going into this one - but not many sides will have attacked them as their guests will be looking to do this evening, desperately in need of a goal.

Valencia go into this encounter having lost just one of their last eight games home and away, and six wins and a draw from their last eight away from the Mestalla suggests that they are more than capable of securing a result here.

Ernesto Valverde's charges have won their last two Champions League outings on the road, scoring four and keeping two clean sheets, and I think that they are cracking odds to pull another impressive performance out of the bag in Paris.

The visitors know that they must score in order to stand any chance of progression in this competition, and for that reason, they may be worth a back - with a view to trading out for a quick profit if they notch a goal first.

With nothing to lose in this game, Los Che might as well go for broke - and I think that they are very good value for the win here, against a PSG side missing their talisman striker.

Bet 1: Valencia (AWAY) @ 4.2

Back to more familiar climes now - and focusing on League One, as Notts County host Leyton Orient at Meadow Lane.

Magpies manager Chris Kiwomya has seen something of a resurgence from his side of late, and they have lost just one of the half a dozen games they've played since he took over at the beginning of February.

A five match unbeaten run since then has seen the home side to 10th in the division, and they are now eight points off the coveted play-off positions with 11 left to play.

The hosts have not lost on their own patch since New Year's Day - and three wins from their last four in front of their own fans suggests that they are hard to beat at the Lane.

Kiwomya has no new injury worries ahead of this one, and is expected to stick with the 3-5-2 formation which fared them so well in a 1-0 victory against Carlisle on Saturday.

Leyton Orient travel up the M1 sitting in 13th place in the table, and just one win from five will have knocked confidence down at Brisbane Road.

Furthermore, one win from eight on the road suggest travel sickness on the part of the visitors - and 11 goals shipped in that time indicates that their defensive weaknesses could play a big part in the outcome of this game.

Russell Slade's side have kept just one clean sheet from their last seven, and his headaches continue this evening as influential defender gary Sawyer remains sidelined through injury.

Bet 2: Notts County (HOME) @ 2.3

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US Sunday Preview: Nothing Placid about Stephanie's Kitten

Disposeablepleasure gets all the allowances and can’t be ruled out but she will do well to see off Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Filly winner Stephanie’s Kitten

Graeme North takes you through the best of Sunday's action in the second part of his weekend preview...

Sunday's main event at Saratoga is the G2 Woodford Reserve Lake Placid Stakes (16:55 local time, 21:55 BST) for three-year-old fillies over nine furlongs on the turf and, with a couple of G1 races open to the same horses the day before, it's no surprise it has attracted just six runners.

Leading trainer and jockey at Saratoga, Todd Pletcher and Ramon Dominguez respectively, team up with Timeform top-rated Disposeablepleasure. All her best form, however, which includes a second to Zo Impressive in the Mother Goose at Belmont in June, has been achieved on dirt and she could only finish fourth on her only turf start so far which was more than a year ago. Disposeablepleasure gets all the allowances and can't be ruled out but she will do well to see off Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Filly winner Stephanie's Kitten, who was unlucky to finish only fourth in the Lake George Stakes (a race contested by Irish 1000 Guineas winner Samitar) here last month.

Nearly all the protagonists that day take each other on again but that result shouldn't be taken at face value- there was plenty of trouble in running which the winner Centre Court and second Better Lucky avoided and Stephanie's Kitten and Somali Lemonade didn't, all on the back of an overly strong pace set by the previously progressive Medolina whose rider had a lapse of judgement.

Medolina is worth another chance given the deep impression she created in her previous win at Belmont given she is much more likely to get her own way in front this time, but the longer distance will be in Stephanie's Kitten and a repeat of her previous best will probably be good enough. An exacta boxing her and Medolina might be the smart play.

There is European interest at Woodbine on Sunday when Andreas Wohler's Scalo runs in the G2 Sky Classic (16:44, 21:44 BST) over a mile and a quarter. He settled the Gerling-Preis at Cologne last year with a good turn of foot, returning a Timeform rating of 120 in the process, but he has run only three times since and was some way below his best on his reappearance at Dortmund in June. At his best he'd take all the beating and Morning Line forecasts of 2.6 reflect that, but the claims of the reliable Smart Bid are just as convincing.

Graham Motion's six-year-old is a regular at the top level in States and finished ahead of the former Luca Cumani trained Forte Dei Marmi in the Colonial Turf Cup at Colonial Downs back in June. He didn't need to be at his best when landing a non-graded stakes event at Penn National last time and is going to be very hard to keep out of the first two.

Chokurei, who won four races for Clive Cox last year culminating in a Nottingham handicap off a BHA mark of 82, makes her first North American start in the Belle Mahone Stakes (15:39, 20:39 BST) but she looks to have a fair bit to find on ratings. Mike Maker's Juanita, who won the G2 La Troienne Stakes at Churchill Downs back in May, has 5lb in hand on Timeform's weight-adjusted figures but, though she has won on turf, she has never run on Tapeta and has shown all her best form on dirt. Second top-rated Moment of Majesty has won on the surface but her recent improvement has come on turf so all in all this is a tough race to call.

It's not often that Emerald Downs is on this column's radar but the Seattle venue plays host to the G3 Longacres Mile Handicap on Sunday. Several of the eleven runners have presumably been entered more in hope than expectation but a weight spread of 9lb helps bring the field together.

Top weight and veteran Awesome Gem was back to somewhere near his best last time on his first start this year on dirt when third in the Cornhusker at Prairie Meadows. That race, won by the subsequent G1 Whitney Handicap winner Fort Larned, is strong form in the context of this race but more important to Awesome Gem's chance is the prospect of a strong gallop- Fort Larned dictated the five-runner Cornhusker at a very slow tempo by dirt standards but three of the field in the Longacres has an average early position figure 90 or higher promising a very strongly-run race. That should be enough to make Awesome Gem's class tell, though Hudson Landing, who won here last time and was one place behind Awesome Gem in the G3 Berkeley Handicap at Golden Gates in May, is respected.

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Follow The Money: Nothing Casual about this Mover

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 19 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

FTM are backing two at Kempton today

"Casual Mover who has been backed into [2.58] from [4.2]."

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Southwell and Kempton.

Today's negative runs in Southwell's 15.00. Chapel House has drifted to [2.44] from [2.06]. The gelding is up 10lb today following back-to-back victories at Leicester over 2m4½f. This nine-year-old is up in class today and has struggled when attempting this class before over fences and hurdles. Chapel House has had jumping problems in the past and that combined with tougher opposition may cause him to struggle today.

We then move on to Kempton for our first positive in the 15.20 Median Auction Maiden Stakes, where Red Shuttle has received steady support from [5.9] into [4.7]. This will be a step down in trip from 1m4f to 1m2f but, as this five-year-old gelding has been tiring at the finish in his previous races, this shorter trip could be the key to him picking up his first win. Having been placed in his three runs on the flat, after tailing off in a bumper, he has shown promise and a liking for the AW surface. Noel Quinlan's charge ran keenly last time in a slowly run race so the faster pace over this distance should also suit.

Our next selection is also at Kempton in the 15.50. The money has come for Casual Mover who has been backed into [2.58] from [4.2]. This four-year-old colt is having his only his sixth race and his third try at this trip. This debut winner got his career back on track when winning his last race at Lingfield over the same distance. He is up 5lb today and could well defy the rise as he looks open to improvement. With winning jockey Steve Drowne up again he could be notching up his third career win today.

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Today's Follow The Money Movers come from the meetings at Newton Abbot and Carlisle....

Today's Follow The Money comes from the meetings at Kempton, Uttoxeter and Ffos Las....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Cheltenham and Lingfield....

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Kenny Dalglish is honest if nothing else after Bolton defeat

Premier League / Richard Aikman / 22 January 2012 / 3 Comments

Kenny Dalglish has spent a lot more money than his predecessor Roy Hodgson but results haven't been that much better

"It should be pointed out, though, that Dalglish’s untouchability does present problems of its own, for neither should the Reds’ coach be exempt from all culpability."

Liverpool's season suffered a huge setback with defeat at Bolton yesterday but Kenny Dalglish pulled no punches when it came to laying the blame on his players. He may be honest but he needs to start winning some matches, says Richard Aikman.

Kenny Dalglish has come in for a good deal of criticism of late. There is no question that his public position over the Luis Suarez affair was unacceptable, but the Liverpool manager should be commended for his unsparing public criticism of his players following their abject capitulation at Bolton Saturday night.

Liverpool, (now a well-priced [5.6] to finish the season in sixth place were outplayed, out-thought and outfought by a club that have spent most of the campaign languishing at the nether end of the division and who, before last night, had mustered just one league victory at home all campaign. Afterwards, it was only natural to expect the blame to be levelled at the referee or perhaps his assistant, such is the present day norm for match-day reactions. Arsene Wenger was a case in point last weekend when he tried to put Arsenal's deserved 3-2 defeat by Swansea down to a match official who had made "strange decisions" and a penalty award he described as "a complete imagination".

How refreshing it was, then, to hear a Premier League manager for once giving the supporters the benefit of some intelligence by telling it as it was. "We've got to look at ourselves and if that's the level (the players) expect to play then they'll not be here long," he said.

When offered the chance to explain the result away with a penalty appeal that went unheeded, he added: "That's not the problem. The problem starts with your attitude and your approach to the game and if that's not right then who are we to disrespect anyone and think we can go to any football ground and automatically get a result? Liverpool Football Club has not been built on that foundation, they've always been respectful to people who have paid and have worked hard to get the result. If they don't want to do that, then fine. I don't know where this attitude has come from but it had better go quickly."

Cue: collective sigh of relief. Too many modern-day managers spend their entire post-match press conference seeking excuses, alibis and smokescreens in a thinly-veiled bid to protect their obviously culpable players. Indeed, one of the reasons so many players that leave Arsenal are so complimentary about Wenger is precisely because he never hangs them out to dry. And the reason most managers don't publicly criticise their own is for fear of losing the dressing room.

Dalglish, however, is an exception to the rule because he would have to get his side relegated and burn down Anfield before losing the unswerving support of the Kop. No player is bigger than the club and not even Steven Gerrard is bigger than King Kenny, who decided to use his position to inflict an entirely justifiable withering attack on his own.

It should be pointed out, though, that Dalglish's untouchability does present problems of its own, for neither should the Reds' coach be exempt from all culpability. After all, unlike his harshly vilified predecessor Roy Hodgson, it is Dalglish who was given the keys to the coffers and his £100m plus outlay on players has not paid dividends hitherto. His claims in August that the club had spent "responsibly" are beginning to ring hollow with his side lying seventh in the table and 16 points off the top, having played a game more than leaders Manchester City.

Andy Carroll has yet to justify a tenth of his £35m price tag, while Luis Suarez, aside from letting down his team-mates in the whole Patrice Evra affair, has not translated star quality into goals. Five strikes in 18 league matches is a poor return for a player at a club who, before yesterday, had created the second most goalscoring chances than any other club this season. In total Liverpool have scored just 25 goals all season: significantly less than half of the 57 Manchester City have managed, and their lowest return by this stage of the season in 40 years.

On Saturday, with the exception of Craig Bellamy and Pepe Reina, the Reds were abject, ceding possession cheaply, defending naively and receiving no protection from Charlie Adam or Gerrard, who failed to track back. On a day when Chelsea dropped points and Newcastle lost this was a chance to make gains on the top four, but after Saturday's performance they are as likely to earn a Champions League place as 16th-placed QPR are to finish in the top ten.

Dalglish fell short of suggesting that he will delve into the transfer market to salvage his side's flagging campaign, saying that there is "no need for a knee-jerk". In all honesty, to do so would represent an admission of failure on his part; it would highlight just how poor the likes of Stewart Downing and Jordan Henderson have been. However, he needs to do something soon to inspire a reaction from his players, who yesterday seemingly had half an eye on Wednesday's Carling Cup semi-final against Manchester City at Anfield and Saturday's FA Cup fourth round encounter against Manchester United.

Perhaps the public scolding will suffice. It can't do any harm because Liverpool need something to rouse themselves from their present state of torpour. Either way it was refreshing to see the players being berated rather than pampered for once. For that much Kenny deserves the thanks of us all.

Mario Balotelli scored a last-gasp winner as Manchester City beat Spurs but could well have been sent off earlier. At the Emirates, Manchester United took all three points as Arsenal's troubles continue......

With four of the top five Premier League clubs in action, Sunday afternoon is going to be one to saviour. Mike Norman is here throughout the day to update all the action and price changes as they happen....

Lee Dixon wonders whether Manchester United deserve to go into this match as favourites and thinks the fixture will, as ever, be a fiery affair between two teams who don't really like each other....

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Premier League Bets: The season the stats mean nothing

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 02 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Leighton Baines' penalty against his old club Wigan denied the hosts a fanrastic chance of picking up a rare win

"It’s not just we punters who lay store by trends and numbers. I’ve been in many manager’s offices where there is a graph on the wall, plotting how their season can reach a particular points total they consider will guarantee them promotion or a play-off place. What happens when the line that shows points achieved goes above the one that shows the target, but it still doesn’t actually reap the reward?"

It's been a strange old season and whoever wins the title will have done so without setting the league alight if their final points tally is anything to go by. But then again, the stats affecting all teams have got us all in a right spin, says Ralph Ellis.

Statistically, nobody will win the Barclays Premier League this season. Not a single team will get relegated either.

Aaron Ramsey's carefully slotted winning goal for Arsenal against Manchester United wasn't only a blow for Sir Alex Ferguson. It was a bit of a kick in the wotsits for mathematicians too, especially those who rely on numbers, facts and figures to plot their betting.

Everybody saw that the defeat opened up the title race.Chelsea had beaten Spurs 2-1 thanks to two awful refereeing decisions the day before. Now three points behind on the same goal difference, a win at Old Trafford next Sunday afternoon will take them back to the top of the table. But Arsenal's win also meant that United cannot get more than 82 points by the time they kick the last ball on May 22nd. It's ten years since a smaller total took top spot. In fact in the last six seasons, it wouldn't even get you into second place. On that basis you can confidently lay them for the title right now at [1.29], because the stats show that simply isn't enough to win the Premier League.

Feeling brave enough to do it? No, me neither. Because this is the season that has defied all the statistical trends on which we were beginning to base our targets.
It's not just we punters who lay store by trends and numbers. I've been in many manager's offices where there is a graph on the wall, plotting how their season can reach a particular points total they consider will guarantee them promotion or a play-off place. What happens when the line that shows points achieved goes above the one that shows the target, but it still doesn't actually reap the reward?

I spent all last week wondering whether to pick up the £100 that was available if you wanted to lay Birmingham for relegation. At last week's price of [16.0] it would have meant putting all my 'available to bet' balance at stake, but statistically it looked safe as houses. Only twice in the last 12 years has anybody gone down with more than 36 points, and Alex McLeish's side already had 38.

They have 39 now after a scrappy 1-1 draw with Wolves, clinging on for a point with ten men after Craig Gardner got himself sent off. I chickened out last week and I'm still not confident enough to collect the £27 that at this moment is waiting if you want to lay them for relegation at [17.5].

More stats: 35 points would have kept you up in five of the last seven seasons. So Blackpool, having battled for a 0-0 draw against Stoke, ought mathematically to be odds against of about [2.5] to be relegated, yet instead they are [1.29]. Even West Ham, still bottom after a miserable first 20 minutes and a 2-1 defeat at Manchester City, can still get to 35 points. I suspect if they do, they will go down regardless.

Next week Hammers play Blackburn, who chipped out a 1-0 win over local rivals Bolton, and moved on to 38 points. They will feel more safe and look the safest lay at [5.4] to be relegated. But I'm sure somebody at Upton Park will remind them that Sheffield United went down with 38 in 2007 when Carlos Tevez scored that winner at Old Trafford on the final day, and that Hammers themselves got relegated on 42 points in 2003.

Roberto Martinez said last week that none of the sides near the bottom deserved to be relegated, and that was his point (or 35 of them, as the case may be). Wigan backed up his argument by moving to 35 points with a 1-1 draw at home to Everton, and should have won but for conceding a silly penalty which their former player Leighton Baines slotted away.

Even for the teams in mid-table safety you can't rely on much this season. Of the £35,000 that's been matched on Sunderland finishing in the top half of the table, most of it has been at odds of anywhere between [3.0] and [1.15]. A miserable 3-0 defeat at home to Fulham pushed the current lay out to [19.5]. Roy Hodgson's West Brom, whose ten men took their recent tally to 16 points from nine games with a late winner against Aston Villa, are now the best value to do it at [3.25].

The uncertainty of the whole season is underlined by Betfair's market. Four teams are very short odds on to go down, yet only three of them can do.There's clearly an opportunity. Just don't rely on the stats to tell you where!

Ramsey goal blows title race wide open ahead of next week's massive Old Trafford clash. Meanwhile, Liverpool seal comfortable win over Newcastle and City pull clear in fourth......

There is too much riding on the outcome of football matches for FIFA to continue their absurd opposition to goal-line technology, says Richard Aikman....

Chelsea stay in touch in title race as Harry fumes at linesman. Meanwhile, Blackburn earn vital win and Sunderland slump continues......

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Champion Chase Betting: There's nothing Folly about backing Woolcombe

Ante-Post Betting / Timeform / 07 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Woolcombe Folly: Has the form to have a big say in the Champion Chase

"Woolcombe Folly’s win at Cheltenham rates as one of the very best handicap performances of the season, and if he repeats it at the Festival he will more than likely place. If he can improve slightly upon that form then it is not at all difficult to envisage him playing an even more significant role."

The Champion Chase could prove to be one of the races of the Festival, with dual winner Master Minded set to have another crack at the one who stole his crown last year, Big Zeb. However, Timeform reckon the value lies elsewhere....

In the aftermath of his narrow defeat of Somersby in the VC Chase at Ascot in January, Master Minded drifted slightly in the ante-post market for the Champion Chase. However, rather than Master Minded running below form, we have taken the view that Somersby put up the sort of top-class performance that he had long promised at Ascot, and in getting the better of him Master Minded produced his best effort on Timeform ratings since announcing himself as the best two-mile chaser around in the 2008 Champion Chase. That sort of form makes Master Minded the clear one to beat ahead of this season's renewal of the Champion, and the rightful market leader at [3.35].

After some uncertainty as to which race would be his Festival target, Somersby has reportedly been confirmed as on track for the Champion Chase rather than the Ryanair. Whether that is the right move is open to question given how well he usually finishes off his races, but nevertheless the fact of the matter is that Somersby has a top-class performance in a two-mile chase to his name, and a reproduction of his VC Chase effort would obviously result in him being right in the mix in the Champion. In both his previous runs over two miles at Cheltenham (in the 2009/10 Arkle and this season's Tingle Creek) Somersby has got outpaced turning for home before staying on strongly up the Hill, and the likelihood is that a real test at the trip will see him at his very best. Strictly judged on form the [8.6] currently available about him for the race is too big, but the doubts raised by his previous efforts over two miles at Cheltenham temper enthusiasm somewhat.

Big Zeb is the reigning Champion Chaser, and he has built up a very solid profile over the last couple of seasons. He met with something of a bump on his road back to Cheltenham when beaten by Golden Silver in the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown at the end of January, but the market has by no means overreacted to that apparent setback, Big Zeb currently a [4.6] shot for the Champion, having been matched to decent money at a low of [4.0]. That lack of significant movement in the market looks justified, as Big Zeb's defeat to Golden Silver represented his best effort of the season on Timeform ratings, and he was only 2 lb below the form he had shown when winning the Champion in 2010. He will head there this time with excellent claims once more, though this year's race will likely take a bit more winning with Master Minded seemingly back to his best and a couple of other pretenders having emerged in the meantime.

Other than Somersby, Woolcombe Folly looks the strongest challenger among last season's novices. Woolcombe Folly won a Grade 2 novice chase at Doncaster on his first start over fences around this time last year, and was swiftly pitched into considerably rougher waters to contest the Arkle on his next start. The Arkle proved too much for Woolcombe Folly as he trailed in last, but the scope remained for him to still do better, and that has emphatically proved the case in two starts this season.

Woolcombe Folly started out 2010/11 with a win off 142 in a two-mile handicap at Ascot in November and built on that the following month when defying a mark of 154 at Cheltenham, in a time that compared very favourably with the one recorded by Master Minded in the Tingle Creek on the same day. Woolcombe Folly's win at Cheltenham rates as one of the very best handicap performances of the season, and if he repeats it at the Festival he will more than likely place. If he can improve slightly upon that form then it is not at all difficult to envisage him playing an even more significant role, so there is certainly a case to be made that the [10.0] currently available about him is on the generous side.

Golden Silver put up a career-best effort when lowering Big Zeb's colours in the Tied Cottage, running to the sort of figure that puts him right among the leading form contenders for the Champion Chase, though he does also have the option of the Ryanair at the Festival. The level of his form entitles Golden Silver to be shorter for both those races, though that is mitigated somewhat by his Cheltenham record, poor effort in the the 2009 Arkle and last season's Champion Chase all he has to show from two visits to Prestbury Park.

Captain Cee Bee is the best of those not yet mentioned, but at [12.0] he looks a very poor price on anything he's done over fences to date. He finished a long way behind Big Zeb and Golden Silver when last seen at Leopardstown over Christmas, and has getting on for a stone to find with the form principals.

Sizing Europe looked like he had the potential to make up into a realistic Champion Chase contender when winning last year's Arkle, but he hasn't quite gone on from that run as might have been hoped. He seemed to see three miles when tried over the trip on his first two starts this season, and ran to a similar standard back at two miles last time when third behind Golden Silver and Big Zeb at Punchestown. That suggests he may have reached his limit over fences, and there isn't a compelling reason why he'll reverse that form.

Recommendation

Back Woolcombe Folly @ [10.0] in the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival

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Champion Chase Betting: There's nothing Folly about backing Woolcombe

Ante-Post Betting / Timeform / 07 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Woolcombe Folly: Has the form to have a big say in the Champion Chase

"Woolcombe Folly’s win at Cheltenham rates as one of the very best handicap performances of the season, and if he repeats it at the Festival he will more than likely place. If he can improve slightly upon that form then it is not at all difficult to envisage him playing an even more significant role."

The Champion Chase could prove to be one of the races of the Festival, with dual winner Master Minded set to have another crack at the one who stole his crown last year, Big Zeb. However, Timeform reckon the value lies elsewhere....

In the aftermath of his narrow defeat of Somersby in the VC Chase at Ascot in January, Master Minded drifted slightly in the ante-post market for the Champion Chase. However, rather than Master Minded running below form, we have taken the view that Somersby put up the sort of top-class performance that he had long promised at Ascot, and in getting the better of him Master Minded produced his best effort on Timeform ratings since announcing himself as the best two-mile chaser around in the 2008 Champion Chase. That sort of form makes Master Minded the clear one to beat ahead of this season's renewal of the Champion, and the rightful market leader at [3.35].

After some uncertainty as to which race would be his Festival target, Somersby has reportedly been confirmed as on track for the Champion Chase rather than the Ryanair. Whether that is the right move is open to question given how well he usually finishes off his races, but nevertheless the fact of the matter is that Somersby has a top-class performance in a two-mile chase to his name, and a reproduction of his VC Chase effort would obviously result in him being right in the mix in the Champion. In both his previous runs over two miles at Cheltenham (in the 2009/10 Arkle and this season's Tingle Creek) Somersby has got outpaced turning for home before staying on strongly up the Hill, and the likelihood is that a real test at the trip will see him at his very best. Strictly judged on form the [8.6] currently available about him for the race is too big, but the doubts raised by his previous efforts over two miles at Cheltenham temper enthusiasm somewhat.

Big Zeb is the reigning Champion Chaser, and he has built up a very solid profile over the last couple of seasons. He met with something of a bump on his road back to Cheltenham when beaten by Golden Silver in the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown at the end of January, but the market has by no means overreacted to that apparent setback, Big Zeb currently a [4.6] shot for the Champion, having been matched to decent money at a low of [4.0]. That lack of significant movement in the market looks justified, as Big Zeb's defeat to Golden Silver represented his best effort of the season on Timeform ratings, and he was only 2 lb below the form he had shown when winning the Champion in 2010. He will head there this time with excellent claims once more, though this year's race will likely take a bit more winning with Master Minded seemingly back to his best and a couple of other pretenders having emerged in the meantime.

Other than Somersby, Woolcombe Folly looks the strongest challenger among last season's novices. Woolcombe Folly won a Grade 2 novice chase at Doncaster on his first start over fences around this time last year, and was swiftly pitched into considerably rougher waters to contest the Arkle on his next start. The Arkle proved too much for Woolcombe Folly as he trailed in last, but the scope remained for him to still do better, and that has emphatically proved the case in two starts this season.

Woolcombe Folly started out 2010/11 with a win off 142 in a two-mile handicap at Ascot in November and built on that the following month when defying a mark of 154 at Cheltenham, in a time that compared very favourably with the one recorded by Master Minded in the Tingle Creek on the same day. Woolcombe Folly's win at Cheltenham rates as one of the very best handicap performances of the season, and if he repeats it at the Festival he will more than likely place. If he can improve slightly upon that form then it is not at all difficult to envisage him playing an even more significant role, so there is certainly a case to be made that the [10.0] currently available about him is on the generous side.

Golden Silver put up a career-best effort when lowering Big Zeb's colours in the Tied Cottage, running to the sort of figure that puts him right among the leading form contenders for the Champion Chase, though he does also have the option of the Ryanair at the Festival. The level of his form entitles Golden Silver to be shorter for both those races, though that is mitigated somewhat by his Cheltenham record, poor effort in the the 2009 Arkle and last season's Champion Chase all he has to show from two visits to Prestbury Park.

Captain Cee Bee is the best of those not yet mentioned, but at [12.0] he looks a very poor price on anything he's done over fences to date. He finished a long way behind Big Zeb and Golden Silver when last seen at Leopardstown over Christmas, and has getting on for a stone to find with the form principals.

Sizing Europe looked like he had the potential to make up into a realistic Champion Chase contender when winning last year's Arkle, but he hasn't quite gone on from that run as might have been hoped. He seemed to see three miles when tried over the trip on his first two starts this season, and ran to a similar standard back at two miles last time when third behind Golden Silver and Big Zeb at Punchestown. That suggests he may have reached his limit over fences, and there isn't a compelling reason why he'll reverse that form.

Recommendation

Back Woolcombe Folly @ [10.0] in the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival

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