Showing posts with label champion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label champion. Show all posts

April 25, 2013

Rabobank Champion Hurdle: Fly to face six rivals

"Punchestown might suit Rock On Ruby, but it's an away game for him, a strange place, where for us it is just up the road."

Hurricane Fly faces just six rivals as he bids to land the Rabobank Champion Hurdle for the fourth successive year at Punchestown on Friday...

Among the horses taking on Willie Mullins' crack two-miler are three of his stable companions, Midnight Game, So Young and Thousand Stars. But it is the sole British raider, Rock On Ruby, who is expected to give Hurricane Fly the most to do.

The pair clashed in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, with Hurricane Fly coming out on top by two and a half lengths from Harry Fry's charge.

The Michael Winters-trained Rebel Fitz, winner of last year's Galway Hurdle, and Brendan Duke's Mister Benedictine make up the field. The three defections at the final declaration stage were Hurricane Fly's stablemates Zaidpour and Quevega and the Tom Mullins-trained Fosters Cross.

Mullins feels "home advantage" further increases Hurricane Fly's chances of victory.

He told At The Races: "We've been happy with the horse all year. He's been doing all his work well, eating up after, and coming back strong after his races.

"We've spent a lot of time trying to settle him and maybe it's working, as he's not as aggressive as he used to be. Punchestown might suit Rock On Ruby, but it's an away game for him, a strange place, where for us it is just up the road."

Walsh also believes racing on home soil has to give his mount an extra edge. "He's in really good order. Punchestown is 35 minutes up the road for Hurricane Fly but it's a long way from Dorset (for Rock On Ruby)," he said.

Fry knows it will be difficult to reverse Cheltenham form, but intends to ensure Rock On Ruby gives it his best shot.

"We want to ride to give ourselves the best possible chance and that's to play to our strengths, which is that we know we stay." 

"We certainly don't want it to be a crawl and a sprint so I wouldn't be surprised if we employ similar sort of tactics to the ones we used in the Champion Hurdle."

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March 12, 2013

Cheltenham Results: Hurricane flies in the Champion Hurdle

Hurricane Fly, trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Ruby Walsh, won the Champion Hurdle, the feature race on day one of the Cheltenham Festival...

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March 11, 2013

Champion Hurdle: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

"Hurricane Fly has looked irresistible so far this season with his preparation having gone much smoother than 12 months ago..."

Timeform analyse the feature on the opening day of Cheltenham 2013, the Champion Hurdle...

Balder Succes gained sole win this season in minor event at Haydock and has had limitations exposed at a higher level, running about as well as could be expected when third to Zarkandar at Wincanton last time.        
Binocular won Champion Hurdle in 2010 and 6½ lengths fourth to Rock On Ruby 12 months ago. Encouraging return when third to easy winner Hurricane Fly in Irish Champion and should be in hunt for minor honours.        
Cinders And Ashes completed a 4-timer when successful in 2012 Supreme Novices'. Not at best in testing conditions in his 2 runs this term, fifth in Christmas Hurdle latest outing. Something to prove now.            
Countrywide Flame was a game winner of Triumph Hurdle, and stepped up again with easy success in Fighting Fifth on return. Stuck to task behind Rock On Ruby after forcing pace at Doncaster latest, but more needed.      
Grandouet beat Overturn in Grade 2 here in 2011 and excellent second to Zarkandar in corresponding race when next seen. Missed prep race due to minor problem but okay now and looks a leading player.                  
Hurricane Fly won 2011 Champion Hurdle and unbeaten since third in 2012 renewal, easily accounting for Thousand Stars and Binocular in Irish Champion last time. Every chance of reclaiming crown.                
Khyber Kim finished second to Binocular in this in 2010. Rejoined Nicky Henderson/off nearly 2 years before fair return when runner-up to Zarkandar at Wincanton, but even pick of best form sees him fall short.        
Rock On Ruby's best performances last 2 seasons have come at the Festival, winning well-run Champion Hurdle 12 months ago. May not get similar end-to-end gallop this time, but in good form, and now blinkered.              
Zarkandar's only defeat when completing over jumps came when fifth in this last year and looks an improved performer this season, beating 2 of these in International here in December. Bold bid expected.        
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Hurricane Fly 
2. Zarkandar
3. Grandouet

Timeform Verdict: Hurricane Fly can become only the second horse to regain the Champion Hurdle title after Comedy of Errors (1975). He's looked irresistible so far this season with his preparation having gone much smoother than 12 months ago. Rock On Ruby may not have the race go as ideally for him as it did last year, so bigger dangers could emerge in the shape of Zarkandar, unbeaten this term, and Grandouet.            

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Queen Mother Champion Chase: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Sprinter Sacre is unbeaten in seven starts over fences, beating Cue Card impressively in the Arkle last term. Imperious when landing Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler this season, and hard to envisage defeat here.

Timeform take you through the 2013 renewal of the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Mail de Bievre Was a smart chaser in France, winning 3 times at up to 2¾m. Shorter trip likely to suit after impressing for a long way in Denman Chase on British debut, but still plenty to find.

Sanctuaire bounced back from a poor show behind Sprinter Sacre to land Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton, but slammed again by that rival reverting to waiting tactics last time, and bit to prove now.

Sizing Europe won this in 2011 and second last year. As good as ever in 4 runs this season, readily landing sixth Grade 1 over Christmas, but may need Sprinter Sacre to underperform to regain his crown.

Somersby deservedly landed a big prize when winning Victor Chandler last season. Cheekpieces refitted after performing slightly below best for new yard this term, but likely to struggle again.

Sprinter Sacre is unbeaten in seven starts over fences, beating Cue Card impressively in the Arkle last term. Imperious when landing Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler this season, and hard to envisage defeat here.

Tataniano is a fine jumper who has been lightly raced in recent times, making all to score on sole outing at Chepstow last season, but below best both comeback runs before Christmas, and out of his depth here.

Wishfull Thinking has come back to very best this season, scything down rivals late to land a Grade 2 at Newbury in February. Not the easiest to predict, though, and did fall early in this race a year ago.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Sprinter Sacre
2. Sizing Europe
3. Wishfull Thinking

Timeform's view: While the presence of potential front runners Sizing Europe and Mail de Bievre should ensure a thrilling spectacle, the race is likely to be set up perfectly for the strong-travelling Sprinter Sacre, who has looked nigh on unbeatable this term. Sizing Europe is still a top-class force on his day and can prove best of the rest, while Wishfull Thinking, often patiently ridden these days, may pick up the pieces for third.

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March 10, 2013

Jamie Lynch's Cheltenham Day Two Preview: Masterminding another Champion performance

Behind every great champion lies a well-run race, argues Jamie Lynch, as he tries to derive emotional, rather than financial, gain from this year's Champion Chase.

It happens infrequently, only five years in the last thirty to be exact, but every now and then the hare beats the tortoise on Timeform ratings, in that a two-mile chaser comes along who's so spectacular that it outranks the best in the staying division. Such speed-awareness horses are rarer still considering that those five supersonic years comprised just three chasers, as Badsworth Boy and Moscow Flyer did it in back-to-back seasons. Sprinter Sacre is about to become the fourth. 

Achieving a huge rating, as Badsworth Boy (179) and Moscow Flyer (184) did, along with Master Minded whose mighty 179 would have won him the outright rather than divisional award in almost any other era but Kauto Star's, can be as much about opportunity as ability. George Best had World Cup-winning ability but never the opportunity because of his compatriots. 

Likewise, to express their true talent, horses are sometimes at the mercy of comrades, but this specialist group - racing's adrenaline junkies - are reliant, above all, on pace, the faster the better. They feed on speed. That element has been the common denominator in each of the greatest displays in the Queen Mother Champion Chase over the last three decades. 

The gallop was strong when, in 1983, Badsworth Boy won, by a distance, the first of three consecutive renewals, while by far the better of Moscow Flyer's two Champion Chase wins, in 2005 when he finished clear with Well Chief of Azertyuiop, came courtesy of two outsiders following the Will.I.Am edict of going hard or going home.

It was the same scenario, only more pronounced, for Master Minded's show-stopper in 2008. A two-mile, undulating track incorporating 13 stiff, five-foot fences might not sound the ideal environment for an attempted land-speed record, but that's what Tamarinbleu and Schindlers Hunt did, and it proved the catalyst for one of the most memorable, as well as one of the highest-rated, performances in the history of the race, Master Minded storming away by 19 lengths.    
With that in mind, Nicky Henderson might as well go halves with Tom George on the £17,500 it cost to supplement Mail de Bievre for the Champion Chase, because his presence significantly increases the possibility of something out of this world from Sprinter Sacre. He has it in him, and the game is on, in a big way. 

Racing needs gambling and vice versa, but periodically, albeit fewer and further between than a two-miler who can outperform a Gold Cup winner, a thoroughbred emerges who uproots the whole sport from its entrenched betting foundations, so that the privilege comes in watching the horse rather than backing it, in the style of Frankel and Black Caviar. Sprinter Sacre is in the play-offs for that promotion, and a wingman like Mail de Bievre may give him a decisive leg-up. 

Is it better to be a wingman or a middleman? It sounds scurrilous to describe an Arkle and Champion Chase winner as a middleman, but that's what Sizing Europe might be reduced to by Sprinter Sacre, though he's the perfect link in the kingmaker chain. 

Visualise the composition. First the wingman, or wingmen if Sanctuaire reverts to type, provide the ideal platform by setting a searching gallop, before the all-important second stage, involving Sizing Europe. In his unbeaten time as a chaser, Sprinter Sacre has never played with a horse who can carry him deep enough into a race as Sizing Europe will. Then we'll see just how phenomenal Sprinter Sacre is. 

His current Timeform rating is 183p. He still has a little way to go to qualify for dressage, which is seemingly 191, the peak rating in Kauto Star's preliminary career as a racehorse, but, for Wednesday, the stage is set, the bit-part players are well-rehearsed, and we the audience are ready in anticipation of a seen-to-be-believed performance. Sprinter Sacre won't fluff his lines.

With odds of 1.282/7 and a sense of formality, the Champion Chase won't make us rich, but it may just leave us open mouthed in a way that Badsworth Boy did, that Moscow Flyer did, and that Master Minded did, the way that only crack two-mile chasers can. The blueprint has been mapped out for Sprinter Sacre to take his place in history, and for Mail de Bievre, Sanctuaire and Sizing Europe to be listed in the contributors.       
While the Champion Chase looks a race to savour first and bet in second if at all, the rest of the Wednesday Cheltenham card comprises races to bet in first and top up second, so let's look at a few:

The Make-Or-Breaker

This is personal rather than widespread make-or-breaker, but my biggest ante-post bet comes in the second race. Almost by the hour, the confidence levels from wager day to present day have diminished, firstly by the gradual revelation that Pont Alexandre is the second coming and then, more devastatingly, by the news that Dr Christian and his medical team have decamped to Grange Hill Farm hot on the trail of an equine scuppering bug. 

Sinatra permeated the Tuesday preview, and Mack is back in town for an explanatory singalong wittily entitled 'New One, New One'. (Let's forget about the word 'The' for now...)

Stop spreading the germs, I'm too late to lay
I want to see a big profit - New One, New One.
My savings bond dues, are going astray, 
Right through the very arse of it, Neptune, Neptune. 
I wanna wake up on the Thursday, and not to weep 
But to find I'm King of Cheltenham, cash in a heap.

And if I can make it there, I'll stroke Sam's ginger hair, 
It's up to you - New One, New One.  

Despite various shepherds and wise men with gifts gathering at a certain stable in Co. Carlow to proclaim the arrival of Pont Alexandre, and despite various vets and microbiologists in containment suits gathering at a certain stable in Naunton, I'm still a believer in The New One. I have to be. 

Amid the panic (sorry, my panic), let's not forget that The New One beat My Tent Or Yours in the Graded bumper at Aintree and that he could and probably should be undefeated over hurdles, but for Sam Twiston-Davies pressing on marginally too soon on testing ground at Cheltenham last time. 

Pont Alexandre looks a top horse, and he is one by the sounds of it, but he'll have to be to see off the classy and hardened The New One. 

Wednesday's C.H.I.L.D. Is Ex-Sheikh Mo

If The New One does shake off the twin troubles of the lurgi and the next Denman, then I promise to donate a portion of my winnings to Greatwood, a fantastic charity that provides fullilling futures for former racehorses. Equally productive, but less reliant upon benefaction, is a similar set-up by the name of Bloomfields, which gives regally-bred Flat horses a second chance as jumpers, and, under the management of John Ferguson, it's proving a huge success. 

Bloomfields is the source of Wednesday's C.H.I.L.D. (Cheltenham Handicapper Imploring Large Down-payment), as Bordoni looks the ideal type, and favorably treated, for the Fred Winter. Impeccably bred, by Bernardini and from the family of Allez France, Bordoni went the right way in his only season on the Flat and has taken well to hurdling... apart from that time he ran out when set to hack up at Ludlow. But he put that behind him when making short work of subsequent-winner Somemothersdohavem at Market Rasen, when looking for all the world as if the demands of a well-run race on a stiff track like Cheltenham will be the making of him, as supported by the fact he won at as far as two miles on the Flat. 

Career-changer Bordoni was bred for Epsom rather than Cheltenham, but better Cheltenham than Greatwood, or dressage for that matter.  

Read Jamie's Previews of days One, Three and Four.

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Champion Hurdle: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

"Hurricane Fly has looked irresistible so far this season with his preparation having gone much smoother than 12 months ago..."

Timeform analyse the feature on the opening day of Cheltenham 2013, the Champion Hurdle...

Balder Succes gained sole win this season in minor event at Haydock and has had limitations exposed at a higher level, running about as well as could be expected when third to Zarkandar at Wincanton last time.        
Binocular won Champion Hurdle in 2010 and 6½ lengths fourth to Rock On Ruby 12 months ago. Encouraging return when third to easy winner Hurricane Fly in Irish Champion and should be in hunt for minor honours.        
Cinders And Ashes completed a 4-timer when successful in 2012 Supreme Novices'. Not at best in testing conditions in his 2 runs this term, fifth in Christmas Hurdle latest outing. Something to prove now.            
Countrywide Flame was a game winner of Triumph Hurdle, and stepped up again with easy success in Fighting Fifth on return. Stuck to task behind Rock On Ruby after forcing pace at Doncaster latest, but more needed.      
Grandouet beat Overturn in Grade 2 here in 2011 and excellent second to Zarkandar in corresponding race when next seen. Missed prep race due to minor problem but okay now and looks a leading player.                  
Hurricane Fly won 2011 Champion Hurdle and unbeaten since third in 2012 renewal, easily accounting for Thousand Stars and Binocular in Irish Champion last time. Every chance of reclaiming crown.                
Khyber Kim finished second to Binocular in this in 2010. Rejoined Nicky Henderson/off nearly 2 years before fair return when runner-up to Zarkandar at Wincanton, but even pick of best form sees him fall short.        
Rock On Ruby's best performances last 2 seasons have come at the Festival, winning well-run Champion Hurdle 12 months ago. May not get similar end-to-end gallop this time, but in good form, and now blinkered.              
Zarkandar's only defeat when completing over jumps came when fifth in this last year and looks an improved performer this season, beating 2 of these in International here in December. Bold bid expected.        
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Hurricane Fly 
2. Zarkandar
3. Grandouet

Timeform Verdict: Hurricane Fly can become only the second horse to regain the Champion Hurdle title after Comedy of Errors (1975). He's looked irresistible so far this season with his preparation having gone much smoother than 12 months ago. Rock On Ruby may not get the end-to-end gallop he did last year, so bigger dangers could emerge in the shape of Zarkandar, unbeaten this term, and Grandouet.            

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March 6, 2013

Champion Hurdle: Ten left in Champion contention

The Willie Mullins-trained nine-year-old landed the two-mile championship in 2011 and although he was beaten into third when odds-on 12 months ago, he has looked as good as ever so far this season...

Hurricane Fly will face a maximum of nine rivals when he aims to regain his crown in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival on Tuesday...

The Willie Mullins-trained nine-year-old landed the two-mile championship in 2011 and although he was beaten into third when odds-on 12 months ago, he has looked as good as ever so far this season. He currently heads the market, trading at 3.55/2 on Betfair.

The three main hopes for the home team are last year's winner Rock On Ruby, Paul Nicholls' improving Zarkandar and the Nicky Henderson-trained Grandouet.

Henderson could also run 2010 Champion Hurdle winner Binocular, as well as the runner-up of that year, Khyber Kim.

Last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner Cinders And Ashes and Triumph Hurdle hero Countrywide Flame add further strength in depth.

The field is completed by Balder Succes and Cotton Mill, although the latter looks more likely to stick to handicap company in the County Hurdle.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

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February 2, 2013

Timeform In-Play Hints: Tanerko a Champion bet?

"A proliferation of possible pace-forcers could set things up for those coming from further back: Tanerko Emery is one who may benefit."

Timeform use their In-Play Hints to try and solve the Welsh Champion Hurdle and the West Wales National.

Race: 14:05 Ffos Las - Welsh Champion Hurdle - 2½m

Pace Forecast: Strongly contested.

Specific Pace Hint: Of those forecasted with a better chance, Double Ross could be the most susceptible, in a race in which competition for the lead looks plentiful: A proliferation of possible pace-forcers could set things up for those coming from further back: Tanerko Emery is one who may benefit.

Individual Price Hint: Tanerko Emery traded at more than 5 times BSP and 2 times BSP when winning on 2 of its last 5 starts: Hollow Tree traded at 10% or less of BSP, 25% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP on 3 of its last 5 starts.

Race: 14:40 Ffos Las - West Wales National - 3½m

Pace Forecast: Strongly contested.

Specific Pace Hint: There is a chance of a pace burnout early, and Shaking Hands is one who could suffer on recent run style: A proliferation of possible pace-forcers could set things up for those coming from further back: Makethe Mostofnow is one who may benefit.

Individual Price Hint: Incentivise traded at more than 10 times BSP twice when winning during its last 5 starts: Double Dizzy traded at 10% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP 3 times on 4 of its last 5 starts.

Look out for the new features in Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

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September 13, 2012

Irish Champion Stakes Result: Snow Fairy prevails under Dettori

Snow Fairy won the Irish Champion Stakes under Frankie Dettori, registering her seventh Group 1 win in the process...

Always travelling well, Snow Fairy had Nathaniel firmly in her sights as they turned for home and there was a sense of inevitability about the result as they approached the final furlong.

Nathaniel battled well to hold on to second, whilst St Nicholas Abbey finished well to take third.

Dettori had also ridden Snow Fairy 12 months ago when Dunlop's star found only So You Think too good.

Dettori said: "Usually I don't notice these things, but I could hear the crowd really get behind her and the roar when she crossed the line.

"The crowd at Leopardstown are fantastic. I've had some great days here. It's all about the filly, she's so popular. Everyone was delighted to see her win like that in a fighting finish. She got a tremendous cheer. She's as popular as Kauto Star over jumps and for racing we need superstars like that. She's small but she comes with a big punch!

"All the credit goes to Ed and the team for bringing her back after her serious injury, this race has been won by some great champions and she is one of them. It has been an honour to be on her again. Ryan said be patient and she'll quicken when you ask her. Ryan has been a gentleman, a great help."

There was a dramatic conclusion to the Group 1 Matron Stakes as Chachamaidee was awarded the race in the stewards' room.

Duntle, who won the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot, finished first-past-the-post, but the placings were reversed after it was decided that Duntle's rider Wayne Lordan had caused interference. Chachamaidee, who had received a bump, was only narrowly behind Duntle at the line and, after a lenghty inquiry, was eventually awarded the race.

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September 3, 2012

Champion Stakes: Pastorious facing Frankel test

"We know we can't beat Frankel, I don't think anybody can beat him, but it will be great just to be in the same race. If we can finish second, third or fourth we'll be very happy".

Frankel is set to face a new rival at Ascot next month after German star Pastorius was confirmed an intended runner in the Champion Stakes...

Mario Hofer's three-year-old won the German Derby at Hamburg in early July and tasted further Group 1 glory with an eight-length success at Munich later that month.

He was beaten just a length into third by top-class compatriot Danedream in Sunday's Grosser Preis Von Baden and Hofer believes his star colt will benefit from coming back in distance.

The trainer admits his charge has little chance of toppling the world's highest-rated racehorse on Champions Day at Ascot, but is looking forward to the race nonetheless.

"He ran a very good race on Sunday and we are very happy with him," said Hofer.

"After watching the race, we think 10 furlongs is better for him than a mile and a half and if everything is good, the plan is to bring him for the Champion Stakes at Ascot. We know we can't beat Frankel, I don't think anybody can beat him, but it will be great just to be in the same race. If we can finish second, third or fourth we'll be very happy. Our horse will stay in training as a four-year-old and hopefully he can still improve."

Pastorius is currently trading at 40.039/1 for the Champion Stakes, set to be run at Ascot on October 20.

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March 18, 2012

US Masters Trends: How to find the identikit Augusta champion

US Masters RSS / / 18 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Is Nick Watney the next Masters champion?

Is Nick Watney the next Masters champion?

"Champions over the last 20 years had already played an average 8.65 Masters, with only four making fewer than six appearances."

With the first major of the year always played on the same course there's plenty of history and statistics to go through in an attempt to find the 2012 winner.

Brits have a poor recent record. Aussies even more so.
In an era when the UK boasts the world's top-three ranked players, following this rule defies both the market and basic logic. Nevertheless, Augusta has not been a happy hunting ground recently for Brits, with none of our boys winning since Nick Faldo in 1996. Still, at least our stats compare very favourably to Australia, who have never provided a Masters champion.

Thirty-somethings with plenty of Augusta experience tend to fare best
At 26, Charl Schwartzel rather bucked this trend last year but 11 of the last 20 champions were in their 30s and only Tiger Woods won at a younger age than Schwartzel. A second stat, therefore, that counts against 22 year-old, British, tournament favourite Rory McIlroy and it doesn't bode well for third favourite Phil Mickelson either, who will be bidding to become the first over-40 to win since Mark O'Meara in 1998. The average age during the last 20 years was 32.55.

Debutant winners very rare, champions tend to have plenty of Augusta experience
Champions over the last 20 years had already played an average 8.65 Masters, with only four making fewer than six appearances. Once again Schwartzel and Woods bucked this trend by winning on their second attempt. Unsurprisingly on a layout where course knowledge offers a huge advantage, no debutant has won since 1979. Keegan Bradley backers beware!

Favour multiple winners and proven major champions
Eleven of the last 20 winners were already major champions, of whom nine were winning at least their second Masters title. Even the unlikeliest champions were multiple winners on the European or PGA tours, besides one exception. Zach Johnson had only won once on the PGA Tour, although he did have a couple more to his name on the competitive Nationwide Tour. Otherwise, the least prolific was Angel Cabrera, who had only four previous titles to his name although the Argentinian was hardly short of credentials, having already won a US Open. Of the players currently trading below [100.0], this trend counts against Bradley, Jason Day, Webb Simpson and Rickie Fowler.

Shortlist
If sticking strictly to the above four trends, only five players currently trading below [100.0] meet all the criteria. They are Tiger Woods, Nick Watney, Sergio Garcia, Bubba Watson and Brandt Snedeker. All are multiple winners, in their thirties, making at least their fourth appearance at Augusta. Many more would qualify if considering players currently trading in triple-figures and given that four of the last five Masters winners began the week at well above [100.0], looking for outsiders might well be the best plan.

With Rory McIlroy gobbling up attention at the head of the market punters are forgetting about other Augusta contenders with some spectacular prices available on good players with a genuine chance of Masters glory, says Paul Krishnamurty...

There was drama galore in the final round of the WGC Cadillac with big ramifications for the Masters betting. Tiger Woods pulled out injured, Rory McIlroy finished strongly again, and Justin Rose won his first WGC event. Mike Norman reports......

Rory McIlroy is the new World Number One after a two-stroke victory at the Honda Classic. But joint runner-up there Tiger Woods was in imperious form himself and things are tight in the Betfair US Masters winner market....


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March 14, 2012

Champion Hurdle: Timeform runner-by-runner guide

Champion Hurdle RSS / / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Hurricane Fly defend his Champion Hurdle crown?

Can Hurricane Fly defend his Champion Hurdle crown?

"Last year's winner Hurricane Fly has cemented his position at the top of the 2m tree since then and can confirm himself the best since Istabraq with a follow up."

Can Hurricane Fly defend his Champion Hurdle crown on the opening day of Cheltenham 2012? Read on to get Timeform's thoughts on the big race on Tuesday...

Binocular won the 2010 Champion Hurdle, and back to that sort of form on last 2 starts after undergoing breathing operation. Smooth winner of Kingwell Hurdle last month, and looks the main threat to Hurricane Fly.

Brampour has been much improved this season, winning at Ascot then Greatwood Hurdle at this track a couple of weeks later. Third in Grade 2 here after and had excuses since, but hopes look pretty slim in this company.

Celestial Halo has been a fine servant to connections, landing the Triumph in 2008 as well as 4 Grade 2s. Only just touched off in 2009 renewal of this, but latest defeat to Binocular confirms he's just short of this level.

Hurricane Fly was unbeaten in 5 starts (all Grade 1s) last term, including in this contest, and showed himself as good as ever when making impressive return in Irish Champion in January. Hard to beat on that form.

Kalann quickly left his Flat form behind switched to hurdling, running out a ready winner of 4-y-o minor event here in October. Failed to really build on that since and firmly up against it.

Oscars Well won 2 Grade 1 novices last term and would surely have won the Neptune but for a late blunder. Better form in defeat this season, but put in his place by Hurricane Fly last time.

Overturn is a front runner who was seventh in 2011 Champion. Better than ever this term, completing hat-trick when beating Binocular in Fighting Fifth. Given a break and likely to give it his all again.

Rock On Ruby propelled himself into Champion Hurdle picture when running away with handicap at Newbury on return, and pushed Binocular hard when neck second in Christmas Hurdle. Definite place contender.

Zaidpour is unbeaten in 4 starts this season, showing himself effective from 2m to 3m. Last 3 wins gained at Grade 2 level and this step back up in class likely to prove a bridge too far.

Zarkandar took Triumph Hurdle win in unbeaten 2010/11 campaign, and returned from absence with impressive win in Betfair Hurdle last month. Capable of better still, but that is factored into his price.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Hurricane Fly
2. Binocular
3. Rock On Ruby

Timeform View: Last year's winner Hurricane Fly has cemented his position at the top of the 2m tree since then and can confirm himself the best since Istabraq with a follow up. An on-song Binocular would provide the stiffest resistance, with Rock On Ruby a solid each-way proposition.
...........
Timeform TV Focus callers enjoyed over £2500 profit (to £20 level stakes at Betfair SP) in our first year. Call TV Focus for tips on all Cheltenham CH4 races.

Connections of Binocular are expecting a big run from the 2010 winner, who was unable to defend his crown 12 months ago......

Willie Mullins is pleased to see the taps being turned on at Cheltenham ahead of Hurricane Fly's defence of the Champion Hurdle......

Timeform Radio have another podcast for you, with next week's Champion and World Hurdles under the microscope......


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March 13, 2012

Champion Hurdle: Binocular connections expecting big run

News RSS / / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Binocular: Winner of the 2010 Champion Hurdle

Binocular: Winner of the 2010 Champion Hurdle

"I know AP (McCoy) came back happy after Wincanton and I was thrilled. He looked like his old self the way he jumped,"

Connections of Binocular are expecting a big run from the 2010 winner, who was unable to defend his crown 12 months ago...

The JP McManus-owned eight-year-old, Binocular, landed the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton before supplementing that with victory in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton last month.

"I know AP (McCoy) came back happy after Wincanton and I was thrilled. He looked like his old self the way he jumped," said trainer Nicky Henderson.

"He has got to be back where he was (to win), but it was the positive vibes that told us he was something near the same horse. It has put us right in the mix."

Binocular's regular partner Tony McCoy was also delighted with the Wincanton performance and is looking forward to taking on Hurricane Fly at Cheltenham.

"He jumped very well at Wincanton. At times he has never given the impression he's the same horse that won the Champion Hurdle," said the champion jockey.

"His run at Kempton (in the Christmas Hurdle) was better but he gave me a better feel at Wincanton.

"I think he's got a long way to go to beat Hurricane Fly, he's an exceptional horse who has won 10 Grade Ones and never looked like getting beat.

"But it is Cheltenham, and at Wincanton he felt better than he has done for a long time."
..........
Timeform TV Focus callers enjoyed over £2500 profit (to £20 level stakes at Betfair SP) in our first year. Call TV Focus for tips on all Cheltenham CH4 races.

Find out what Nicky Henderson, Jessie Harrington and Charlie Longsdon had to say about their runners in Tuesday's Cheltenham curtain-raiser, the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.......

Nicky Henderson is hoping Sprinter Sacre can succeed where stablemate Finian's Rainbow failed in Tuesday's Arkle Chase at Cheltenham......

Timeform look back at the highlights from the weekend, which included the Imperial Cup at Sandown and Super Saturday at Meydan......


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February 22, 2012

Champion Bumper: History gives a steer on how to tackle the race

Ante-post RSS / / 22 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Village Vic (right) at Newbury

Village Vic (right) at Newbury

"...favour experience over potential, achievement over promise, and do not be put off by a horse having suffered one, or possibly two, defeats."

It is [10.0] the field ante-post in the Champion Bumper, but recent contests show that certain types of horses tend to do well and/or be underbet. Simon Rowlands took the journey from ignorance to enlightenment...

I start this blog with an admission: while I have managed to watch most of the major jumps races of this season, my day (or should that be "night"?) job has meant that I am more familiar with the runners at Beulah Park and Tampa Bay Downs than with much of what has been going on in bumpers in Britain and Ireland of late.

As my task this week consists of blogging about the Cheltenham Champion Bumper market, I hope you will understand that I felt the need to resort to some help!

So, as a starting point, I looked at all runners in the race since 2000 - 238 of them in total - and tried to establish which types of horses have performed well and badly, and which horses have tended to be overbet and underbet. The results were encouraging enough to prompt me to part with some hard-earned cash. Let's see if you agree.

As mentioned many times previously, simple win-loss strike-rates are too crude a measure. For a start, they do not allow for variations in opportunity as defined by field size, and they do not distinguish between an abject loss and a heroic defeat.

Instead, I used percentage of rivals beaten (%RB) and the profit/loss to an each-way stake at starting price in which the stake is varied according to price (the longer the odds, the less is staked).

There was not a lot to report by age-group (four-year-olds were slightly below par in terms of %RB but were less overbet than five- and six-year-olds) or by the number of previous wins, but there was a much clearer picture in terms of the profitability, or otherwise, by number of runs.

There was not a lot in it judged by %RB, but horses with three or (ideally) four runs to their names have been undervalued by the market. Horses that had raced just once - of which there were 82 cases - had been notably bad betting propositions.

In a related find, unbeaten horses (which many once-raced individuals were) had returned a large loss, while horses who had won between 50% and 75% of their races had done a good deal better than market expectation.

Perhaps most tellingly of all, a high pre-race Timeform rating - defined as 118 or more - not only saw 67.7%RB (where 50% would be par) but showed a profit against starting price through the staking suggested.

What may gain less favour from my employers is that I can also point out that horses with a 'p' or 'P' symbol on their Timeform rating (signifying the likelihood of more than normal or considerable improvement) fared better than par in terms of %RB but much worse in terms of profitability. Horses with obvious potential tend to be overbet, in other words.

A pattern seems to be emerging, which I would summarise thus: favour experience over potential, achievement over promise, and do not be put off by a horse having suffered one, or possibly two, defeats.

Running through the ante-post market on Betfair, three horses made the most appeal by these criteria.

Moscow Mannon just about heads the market after winning the last three of his four races and earning a Timeform rating of 119+. In his last two runs he has given weight and impressive beatings to fairly useful rivals.

Clonbanan Lad has won both his races but has achieved quite a bit more in doing so than other unraced horses at shorter odds. His rating of 122+ would have been good enough to win three or possibly four of the last 10 runnings of the Cheltenham Bumper.

Village Vic might well be unbeaten were it not for inexperience which saw him go down by just a short head to Shutthefrontdoor at Newbury last time (had run away with Chepstow bumper on only other start) and could yet improve on his 118 rating.

Moscow Mannon is marginally my preferred, but all three are worth having on your side in a race which can be one of the most difficult to pin down at the entire Festival.

Recommendations: 2 pts win Moscow Mannon at [10.0]; 1 pt win Clonbanan lad at [21.0], 1 pt win Village Vic at [21.0].

There's Grade 2 action aplenty in Ireland this weekend, with the Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle kicking off proceedings at Fairyhouse on Saturday..........

With a number of horses throwing their names into the ring at the weekend, Timeform's Adam Brookes assesses the Champion Hurdle picture and provides a recommended bet for the two-mile showpiece on March 13......

Sizing Europe will go to Cheltenham with a good chance, but there could be one to topple him in his bid to win at the Festival for the third year in a row. Simon Rowlands reports......


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February 21, 2012

Champion Hurdle Betting: Not hard to see Binocular's leading chance

Ante-post RSS / / 21 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

J P McManus' Binocular

J P McManus' Binocular

"...Timeform ratings show he's now the leading home-trained hope for the race."

With a number of horses throwing their names into the ring at the weekend, Timeform's Adam Brookes assesses the Champion Hurdle picture and provides a recommended bet for the two-mile showpiece on March 13...

With most recent events freshest in the mind, Binocular is a good place to start and the eight-year-old has returned to his best in winning his last two outings, matching his 2010 Champion Hurdle victory when easily beating fellow Champion Hurdle entries Celestial Halo and the returning Starluck in the Kingwell at Wincanton on Saturday. That strong-travelling performance was much more taking than his two previous 'prep' runs for the Champion (forced to miss last year's race on the BHA's advice having been treated for an allergy leading up to the race) and Timeform ratings show he's now the leading home-trained hope for the race.

Nicky Henderson also has Grandouet amongst the rating principals, the five-year-old having impressively landed a minor event at Haydock and the Grade 2 International hurdle at Cheltenham since crashing out at the second last when upsides winner Celestial Halo in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton in November. Grandouet was due to be the yard's representative in the Kingwell before banging a hind leg and, although he is expected to be fine given a few days' rest, it remains to be seen whether being forced to miss the race will affect his preparation.

Five lengths ahead of Grandouet in last year's Triumph Hurdle was Zarkandar, who was another to stake a firm claim at the weekend when maintaining his unbeaten status with a determined win in a very competitive Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Newbury. The half-brother to unbeaten Arc de Triomphe heroine Zarkava clearly has stacks of ability and most probably did well to score, having not had the smoothest of passages and reportedly been one of the yard's runners to come back with a dirty nose. Zarkandar obviously has the potential to progress further but he is going to need to do so and he reportedly looked plenty fit enough to do himself justice before Friday's race. At the current prices, he doesn't make great appeal.

While Nicholls also has Betfair Hurdle seventh Brampour and Celestial Halo entered, ratings suggest his best chance of winning the race for the first time is actually last year's Neptune runner-up Rock On Ruby. Rock On Ruby, who had made a much-improved winning return when carrying top weight in a listed 16.5f handicap at Newbury in November, might well have made a successful step up in class but for a sloppy jump at the last when finding only Binocular a neck too good in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He is sure to be staying on stoutly up the gruelling Prestbury Park hill and is not to be overlooked.

The one they will all have to beat though is, of course, Hurricane Fly, who looks highly likely to retain his crown and record Ireland's sixth success in the last nine renewals. Hurricane Fly ran to a rating 1 lb higher than for last year's Champion win when cruising home in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown (his first start on heavy ground) at the end of last month, which suggests the eight-year-old may even be improved this time round. What's more, he is sure to be benefited by the return to better ground (unbeaten in three starts on good), meaning he'll thoroughly deserve his place as very short-priced favourite.

Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins also has Zaidpour (first in Red Mills Trial Hurdle at Gowran on Saturday), Mikael d'Haguent (second in Boyne Hurdle at Navan on Sunday), So Young (third in Neptune on good going last year but five wins have come on soft or heavy) and Thousand Stars (fourth in 2011 Champion) to choose from, but all currently trade at shorter odds for the World Hurdle on the Thursday.

Ireland's other leading contender looks likely to be the horse Hurricane Fly beat by six and a half lengths last time, Oscars Well, another who performed well at the Festival last March (still going strongly in front when stumbling on landing after the last in the Neptune). While not in the same class as the defending champ, he's in there pitching with the following pack and has minor place claims with the return to better ground and likely generous gallop sure to suit.

The final contender to mention is the admirable Overturn who, with Peddlers Cross nigh on certain to go for the Arkle, looks set to be Donald McCain's only runner. He's another whose overall level of form entitles him to a small place chance, but his style of running means he's always there to be shot at and he was a well-beaten third behind Binocular and Rock On Ruby in the Christmas Hurdle last time.

With Hurricane Fly looking a class apart, the "To Be Placed" and "W/O HFly" markets look more inviting from a betting perspective at this stage. Zarkandar is the only entry who remains open to further improvement but the scramble for the placings looks likely to be a closely-fought one and, at the prices, it could be wise to look elsewhere. Fellow Nicholls contender Rock On Ruby is sure to be overlooked in the betting considering that he's very likely to be deserted by Ruby Walsh (Hurricane Fly) and Daryl Jacob (Zarkandar) but it may be prudent to stick with one who's got the t-shirt, namely his Kempton conqueror Binocular.

Recommendation

Back Binocular @ [4.5] in the Champion Hurdle "W/O Hurricane Fly" market

Sizing Europe will go to Cheltenham with a good chance, but there could be one to topple him in his bid to win at the Festival for the third year in a row. Simon Rowlands reports......

With a quality weekend in prospect, Timeform's Adam Brookes runs the rule over Saturday's Betfair Ascot Chase ......

Timeform's Matt Gardner takes an ante-post look at Saturday's Grand National Trial, run over three and a half miles at Haydock Park......


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February 8, 2012

Champion Chase: Big Zeb worth chance to bounce back at odds

Ante-post RSS / / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

2010 Champion Chase hero Big Zeb

2010 Champion Chase hero Big Zeb

"...owing to the current disparity in prices, it’s Colm Murphy’s runner who makes most appeal as an ante-post back proposition."

With current prices in mind, Timeform's Adam Brookes believes he's found the value bet in the second-day feature of this year's Cheltenham Festival, the Grade 1 Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Sizing Europe's 15-length victory over Big Zeb in the recent Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown has seen the reigning champion chaser establish a 7 lb edge over his rival on Timeform ratings, the 172 figure he achieved matching his winning effort in last year's main event. It's not surprising that trainer Henry de Bromhead has been quoted as saying how the horse is like a child to him, Sizing Europe's record since being sent chasing aged seven quite staggering (yet to finish out of the places, winning four Grade 1s, three Grade 2s and a Grade 3) and, judged on his latest authoritative victory, the trainer can look forward to a few more big days yet. A seemingly bombproof sound jumper/strong traveller, Sizing Europe is undoubtedly the one they will all have to beat at Cheltenham in five weeks' time.

Another modern day Irish legend, Moscow Flyer, was the last 11-year-old to win the race when regaining his crown in 2005 and Big Zeb aims to achieve an identical feat this time round having found Sizing Europe five lengths too good last year. Big Zeb finished runner-up (to Golden Silver) in the Tied Cottage a year ago too, the first of two verdicts he has over Sizing Europe (the current head-to-head score is 2-2) and, although he ran to a figure some 12 lb below his Timeform master rating in the race this time round, he was travelling as well as the winner for most of the race and might just have got bogged down in the ground (the second time he hasn't been at his best on heavy going).

With a Master Minded-shaped hole in this year's Champion Chase, and a field size that will probably fail to match the 10 runners averaged since 2000, stiffest opposition to the 'Big Two' is highly likely to come from Finian's Rainbow. Last year's Arkle runner-up produced a tremendous turn of foot when getting back up to beat Wishfull Thinking and Oiseau de Nuit having made a bad mistake four out on his seasonal return at Kempton, and he showed himself a high-class chaser when finding only Somersby too good in the VC Chase at Ascot just under a month later. However, while admitting that similar comments could have been applied to Sizing Europe before his Champion Chase win, he remains with a bit to prove at the highest level, and there's also the possibility that he'll struggle to get his own way in front with Sizing Europe in opposition.

Somersby is currently second in on Timeform ratings but he also holds the same status for the Ryanair and, with him being having been beaten at the shorter option at all of the last three Cheltenham Festivals, that race should be his preferred target. The Ryanair could also be the preferred destination for Gauvain, I'msiningtheblues, the Irish pair Realt Dubh and Blazing Tempo, and Paul Nicholls' Kauto Stone.

With that in mind, and the strong likelihood that both Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof will go for the Arkle, the champion trainer could well have a live contender for the Champion Chase frame in the shape of Hold Fast. Graham Wylie's eight-year-old impressed with his jumping when readily taking a Sandown handicap on just his second start for Nicholls and, though he has a fair bit to find with the form principals, he's already rated higher than the David Pipe duo I'm So Lucky and Dan Breen, and he has the potential to leapfrog the likes of stablemate Ghizao (lost his way), Forpadydeplaster (hasn't won since 2009 Arkle), Wishfull Thinking (seemingly has breathing issues), and Oiseau de Nuit (has been let down by jumping) as the most interesting outsider.

While Sizing Europe clearly deserves his place as strong favourite in his bid to emulate the likes of Badsworth Boy, Pearlyman, Barnbrook Again and, more recently, Master Minded by winning the Champion Chase for two years in succession, it is worth remembering that he was somewhat advantaged by a positive ride last year and there's the overriding feeling that the market's reaction to the Tied Cottage was excessive. It would be no surprise were Big Zeb to finish much closer to him next month and, owing to the current disparity in prices, it's Colm Murphy's runner who makes most appeal as an ante-post back proposition, with him likely to be trading at a shorter price come March 14. With dangers thin on the ground, it may even pay to also back Big Zeb for a place nearer the time, when anything over [1.7] would be considered value.

Recommendation

Back Big Zeb @ [7.6] in the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival

The highlight of the weekend is the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown on Sunday which features a clash between champion chaser Sizing Europe and the horse whose crown he took at Cheltenham last March, Big Zeb.........

With the Cheltenham Festival only six weeks away, Timeform's Adam Brookes previews the Ryanair Chase on Thursday March 15 and highlights a runner he believes to be value at the current prices......

Timeform's Adam Brookes takes a look at one of the betting features of the weekend, Saturday's three-mile Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster......


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January 24, 2012

Irish Champion Hurdle: Hurricane heads hopefuls

News RSS / / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Hurricane Fly will make his reappearance at Leopardstown.

Hurricane Fly will make his reappearance at Leopardstown.

"Hopefully he will improve for the run. He is a horse that has a habit of getting himself into trouble at home, but he seems to be right now..."

Hurricane Fly features among just six remaining entries for the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown...

The Willie Mullins-trained star cleaned up in the two-mile division last season, landing this Grade One prize before going on to further Champion Hurdle success at Cheltenham and later at Punchestown.

The eight-year-old, rated 174 by Timeform, bypassed intended comeback runs at Punchestown in November and at Leopardstown over Christmas as the champion trainer revealed he was not happy with his charge, but he now looks set to grace the racecourse for the first time this season in the Irish Champion Hurdle.

Mullins could also be represented by Thousand Stars, while talented mares Voler La Vedette and Unaccompanied remain in the mix.

Jessica Harrington's Oscars Well and Kalann, from the Sabrina Harty yard, complete the small but select field.

There will be no British interest after Nicky Henderson withdrew both Binocular and Spirit Son as anticipated.

Mullins is much happier with Hurricane Fly now than he was a month ago but expects his charge will improve for the run.

He said: "He is a hell of a horse and probably only once or twice in your lifetime might you come across a horse with that sort of ability.

"He is hard to train as he is so tough on himself and we can't let him do what he wants to do.

"I just want to keep him right and if he gets beaten, he gets beaten.

"Hopefully he will improve for the run. He is a horse that has a habit of getting himself into trouble at home, but he seems to be right now."

Leopardstown's other Grade 1 on Sunday, the Arkle over two miles and a furlong, has eight remaining entrants with Blackstairmountain and Flemenstar being the leading names.

One notable absentee is Bog Warrior, but trainer Tony Martin said: "He's fine, I've just decided to wait an extra week so we can get a bit more done with him.

"There are plenty of races coming up for him and I just felt this weekend was coming a week too soon, so we've decided to give it a miss."

Last season's Grand National runner-up Oscar Time has been ruled out for the season with a leg injury......

Recession Proof will not defend his title in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury next month......

Improvement needed from David Pipe's big race favourite according to ratings...


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January 22, 2012

Champion Hurdle News: Spirit Son suffers new setback

News RSS / / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Spirit Son could miss the rest of the season.

Spirit Son could miss the rest of the season.

"The work was great, but I fear we've got to take things very carefully..."

Spirit Son's participation in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival is in serious doubt after suffering another setback...

The six year-old, rated 159p by Timeform, has not been seen since winning a Grade Two at Aintree last April, and is unlikely to return for the foreseeable future.

Henderson said he could even miss the rest of the season.

He said: "The picture is grey. If you are going to miss two weeks at this point of the game, you are really out of the ball park.

"We had a hiccup with him earlier on (in the season) which cost me three weeks, but this was a new problem.

"I'd rather start next season with a horse in one piece than risk him and lose him for this season and next."

Henderson added: "Everything went great in his gallop the other day but Barry thought that he needed it and we ruled out Ireland (Irish Champion Hurdle)

"But we do have a problem and we will have to monitor it.

"When you have a problem with a good horse it's all over the world before you know it owing to the exchanges.

"The work was great, but I fear we've got to take things very carefully."

Somersby (BSP of [5.8]) finally gained the big victory his consistent efforts deserved when wearing down Finian's Rainbow in the 25th Anniversary of the VC Chase at Ascot......

Betting.Betfair columnist Donald McCain fired in a quartet of winners at Haydock on Saturday......

Paul Nolan's Noble Prince continues his Cheltenham Festival preparations in the Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse on Sunday......


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Champion Hurdle News: Spirit Son suffers new setback

News RSS / / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Spirit Son could miss the rest of the season.

Spirit Son could miss the rest of the season.

"The work was great, but I fear we've got to take things very carefully..."

Spirit Son's participation in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival is in serious doubt after suffering another setback...

The six year-old, rated 159p by Timeform, has not been seen since winning a Grade Two at Aintree last April, and is unlikely to return for the foreseeable future.

Henderson said he could even miss the rest of the season.

He said: "The picture is grey. If you are going to miss two weeks at this point of the game, you are really out of the ball park.

"We had a hiccup with him earlier on (in the season) which cost me three weeks, but this was a new problem.

"I'd rather start next season with a horse in one piece than risk him and lose him for this season and next."

Henderson added: "Everything went great in his gallop the other day but Barry thought that he needed it and we ruled out Ireland (Irish Champion Hurdle)

"But we do have a problem and we will have to monitor it.

"When you have a problem with a good horse it's all over the world before you know it owing to the exchanges.

"The work was great, but I fear we've got to take things very carefully."

Somersby (BSP of [5.8]) finally gained the big victory his consistent efforts deserved when wearing down Finian's Rainbow in the 25th Anniversary of the VC Chase at Ascot......

Betting.Betfair columnist Donald McCain fired in a quartet of winners at Haydock on Saturday......

Paul Nolan's Noble Prince continues his Cheltenham Festival preparations in the Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse on Sunday......


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April 12, 2011

Malaysian Open Betting: Tough week ahead for Masters Champion

Golf Bets RSS / Mike Norman / 12 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Kiradech Aphibarnrat kisses the SAIL Open trophy – his maiden Asian Tour title

Kiradech Aphibarnrat kisses the SAIL Open trophy – his maiden Asian Tour title

"What was encouraging about that performance was that Davies wasn’t defending at the same venue, he was playing a course – two courses in fact – for the first time so his improvement in form can be taken as genuine."

Charl Schwartzel is making a quick reappearance after winning last week's US Masters, but Mike Norman believes it will be a tough week for the South African and two other Masters' participants.


Throughout this season Mike will give one selection in each of the Winner, Top Five Finish and Top Ten Finish markets every week a European Tour event is being played.


Punting wise, it hasn't been a great start for me on the European Tour this season but there have been a lot of low-key events to date with some very weak fields. The stronger the event, the more confidence I will have in my selections. Patience is definitely the key.

Although this week's Maybank Malaysian Open has another relatively weak feel to it, I at least go into the selection process on the back of a very good week at the US Masters. Two of my three selections - Luke Donald and Justin Rose - finished first and second in the Top European market, and I decided on Thursday night (as betting.betfair editor Joe Dyer, and Steve 'The Punter' Rawlings will testify) that I was going to back Charl Schwartzel at [46.0] in the Winner market.

Schwartzel is in Malaysia this week along with Rory McIlroy - the man who made the headlines for all the wrong reasons after his final round collapse - and world number one Martin Kaymer, but other than that it's a familiar looking line-up for the first leg of the 'Asian Swing'.

Schwartzel can be backed at [16.0], but of the star trio he is the one who I'd want to avoid most. He's never been a prolific winner outside of South Africa, and last week's exertions - the media side of it that is - will surely take its toll as the week goes on. Kaymer ([8.8]) missed the cut at Augusta for the fourth year running, and with his season being a bit stop-start so far, I definitely don't want to back him at his current price. It's anyone's guess as to how McIlroy ([13.0]) will respond this week, but he will get almost as much media attention as Schwartzel in the next few days and the whole saga might just get to his already scrambled brain.


Winner

It was at this same time last year that Rhys Davies was finishing in the top five seemingly for fun. That terrific run of form included a win at the Moroccan Open and the Welshman went very close to defending his crown a fortnight ago, eventually losing in a play-off to David Horsey. What was encouraging about that performance was that Davies wasn't defending at the same venue, he was playing a course - two courses in fact - for the first time so his improvement in form can be taken as genuine. He is available to back at [36.0] to triumph this week and he is worth a punt without doubt. He proved last year that he is a very consistent player when in form, and the fact that he finished in a tie for third in this tournament - at this venue - in 2010 augers well.


Top Five Finish

A few weeks ago I vowed personally to leave Stephen Gallacher go un-backed for a while - he's a player that I can never seem to catch right. But a few things have changed my mind. The first is the fact that Schwartzel was another player that I could never catch right, but that changed last week (a good omen perhaps), and the second is Gallacher's price. When I backed Gallacher two weeks running last month he was around the [20.0] mark, now he can be backed at [80.0] to win - and at [14.0] in this market - against similar type players. His Gulf Swing form is hard to ignore (three top-12 finishes), so a missed cut last time out shouldn't have put punters off as much as it appears to have done.


Top Ten Finish

My selection in this market is a complete stab in the dark purely and simply because I wanted an Asian-born player on my side. But the wonderfully-named Kiradech Aphibarnrat is no long shot at [7.4]. The 21-year-old finished in a tie for third - alongside Davies - here last year, and after numerous close finishes he finally won his maiden Asian Tour title when he triumphed at the SAIL Open just three weeks ago. You can do much worse than back a recent winner, a player with proven course form, and someone who knows the culture so well; and in Aphibarnrat you'll also have an extremely enjoyable character to follow.


Recommended Bets

Back Rhys Davies at [36.0] in Winner market
Back Stephen Gallacher at [14.0] in Top Five Finish market
Back Kiradech Aphibarnrat at [7.4] in Top Ten Finish market


Total pts bet this season (one pt bet per selection): 30
Total pts returned: 10.75
2011 European Tour season Profit/Loss: -19.25

It's another low key affair on the European Tour this week so Mike Norman is pinning his hopes on a trio of Spanish players, two of which have been very consistent in 2011....

The European Tour visits Spain this week for a tournament hosted by loveable veteran Miguel Angel Jimenez, but Mike Norman finds reasons to oppose both Jimenez and his classy countryman Alvaro Quiros....

There's a new venue for the European Tour this week but Mike Norman is not put off by having no course form to go on, he's been studying hard he tells us....


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