Ante-post 
/ Adam Brookes / 21 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
J P McManus' Binocular
"...Timeform ratings show he's now the leading home-trained hope for the race."
With a number of horses throwing their names into the ring at the weekend, Timeform's Adam Brookes assesses the Champion Hurdle picture and provides a recommended bet for the two-mile showpiece on March 13...
With most recent events freshest in the mind, Binocular is a good place to start and the eight-year-old has returned to his best in winning his last two outings, matching his 2010 Champion Hurdle victory when easily beating fellow Champion Hurdle entries Celestial Halo and the returning Starluck in the Kingwell at Wincanton on Saturday. That strong-travelling performance was much more taking than his two previous 'prep' runs for the Champion (forced to miss last year's race on the BHA's advice having been treated for an allergy leading up to the race) and Timeform ratings show he's now the leading home-trained hope for the race.
Nicky Henderson also has Grandouet amongst the rating principals, the five-year-old having impressively landed a minor event at Haydock and the Grade 2 International hurdle at Cheltenham since crashing out at the second last when upsides winner Celestial Halo in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton in November. Grandouet was due to be the yard's representative in the Kingwell before banging a hind leg and, although he is expected to be fine given a few days' rest, it remains to be seen whether being forced to miss the race will affect his preparation.
Five lengths ahead of Grandouet in last year's Triumph Hurdle was Zarkandar, who was another to stake a firm claim at the weekend when maintaining his unbeaten status with a determined win in a very competitive Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Newbury. The half-brother to unbeaten Arc de Triomphe heroine Zarkava clearly has stacks of ability and most probably did well to score, having not had the smoothest of passages and reportedly been one of the yard's runners to come back with a dirty nose. Zarkandar obviously has the potential to progress further but he is going to need to do so and he reportedly looked plenty fit enough to do himself justice before Friday's race. At the current prices, he doesn't make great appeal.
While Nicholls also has Betfair Hurdle seventh Brampour and Celestial Halo entered, ratings suggest his best chance of winning the race for the first time is actually last year's Neptune runner-up Rock On Ruby. Rock On Ruby, who had made a much-improved winning return when carrying top weight in a listed 16.5f handicap at Newbury in November, might well have made a successful step up in class but for a sloppy jump at the last when finding only Binocular a neck too good in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He is sure to be staying on stoutly up the gruelling Prestbury Park hill and is not to be overlooked.
The one they will all have to beat though is, of course, Hurricane Fly, who looks highly likely to retain his crown and record Ireland's sixth success in the last nine renewals. Hurricane Fly ran to a rating 1 lb higher than for last year's Champion win when cruising home in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown (his first start on heavy ground) at the end of last month, which suggests the eight-year-old may even be improved this time round. What's more, he is sure to be benefited by the return to better ground (unbeaten in three starts on good), meaning he'll thoroughly deserve his place as very short-priced favourite.
Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins also has Zaidpour (first in Red Mills Trial Hurdle at Gowran on Saturday), Mikael d'Haguent (second in Boyne Hurdle at Navan on Sunday), So Young (third in Neptune on good going last year but five wins have come on soft or heavy) and Thousand Stars (fourth in 2011 Champion) to choose from, but all currently trade at shorter odds for the World Hurdle on the Thursday.
Ireland's other leading contender looks likely to be the horse Hurricane Fly beat by six and a half lengths last time, Oscars Well, another who performed well at the Festival last March (still going strongly in front when stumbling on landing after the last in the Neptune). While not in the same class as the defending champ, he's in there pitching with the following pack and has minor place claims with the return to better ground and likely generous gallop sure to suit.
The final contender to mention is the admirable Overturn who, with Peddlers Cross nigh on certain to go for the Arkle, looks set to be Donald McCain's only runner. He's another whose overall level of form entitles him to a small place chance, but his style of running means he's always there to be shot at and he was a well-beaten third behind Binocular and Rock On Ruby in the Christmas Hurdle last time.
With Hurricane Fly looking a class apart, the "To Be Placed" and "W/O HFly" markets look more inviting from a betting perspective at this stage. Zarkandar is the only entry who remains open to further improvement but the scramble for the placings looks likely to be a closely-fought one and, at the prices, it could be wise to look elsewhere. Fellow Nicholls contender Rock On Ruby is sure to be overlooked in the betting considering that he's very likely to be deserted by Ruby Walsh (Hurricane Fly) and Daryl Jacob (Zarkandar) but it may be prudent to stick with one who's got the t-shirt, namely his Kempton conqueror Binocular.
Recommendation
Back Binocular @ [4.5] in the Champion Hurdle "W/O Hurricane Fly" market
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