Golf Bets 
/ Mike Norman / 12 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Kiradech Aphibarnrat kisses the SAIL Open trophy – his maiden Asian Tour title
"What was encouraging about that performance was that Davies wasn’t defending at the same venue, he was playing a course – two courses in fact – for the first time so his improvement in form can be taken as genuine."
Charl Schwartzel is making a quick reappearance after winning last week's US Masters, but Mike Norman believes it will be a tough week for the South African and two other Masters' participants.
Throughout this season Mike will give one selection in each of the Winner, Top Five Finish and Top Ten Finish markets every week a European Tour event is being played.
Punting wise, it hasn't been a great start for me on the European Tour this season but there have been a lot of low-key events to date with some very weak fields. The stronger the event, the more confidence I will have in my selections. Patience is definitely the key.
Although this week's Maybank Malaysian Open has another relatively weak feel to it, I at least go into the selection process on the back of a very good week at the US Masters. Two of my three selections - Luke Donald and Justin Rose - finished first and second in the Top European market, and I decided on Thursday night (as betting.betfair editor Joe Dyer, and Steve 'The Punter' Rawlings will testify) that I was going to back Charl Schwartzel at [46.0] in the Winner market.
Schwartzel is in Malaysia this week along with Rory McIlroy - the man who made the headlines for all the wrong reasons after his final round collapse - and world number one Martin Kaymer, but other than that it's a familiar looking line-up for the first leg of the 'Asian Swing'.
Schwartzel can be backed at [16.0], but of the star trio he is the one who I'd want to avoid most. He's never been a prolific winner outside of South Africa, and last week's exertions - the media side of it that is - will surely take its toll as the week goes on. Kaymer ([8.8]) missed the cut at Augusta for the fourth year running, and with his season being a bit stop-start so far, I definitely don't want to back him at his current price. It's anyone's guess as to how McIlroy ([13.0]) will respond this week, but he will get almost as much media attention as Schwartzel in the next few days and the whole saga might just get to his already scrambled brain.
Winner
It was at this same time last year that Rhys Davies was finishing in the top five seemingly for fun. That terrific run of form included a win at the Moroccan Open and the Welshman went very close to defending his crown a fortnight ago, eventually losing in a play-off to David Horsey. What was encouraging about that performance was that Davies wasn't defending at the same venue, he was playing a course - two courses in fact - for the first time so his improvement in form can be taken as genuine. He is available to back at [36.0] to triumph this week and he is worth a punt without doubt. He proved last year that he is a very consistent player when in form, and the fact that he finished in a tie for third in this tournament - at this venue - in 2010 augers well.
Top Five Finish
A few weeks ago I vowed personally to leave Stephen Gallacher go un-backed for a while - he's a player that I can never seem to catch right. But a few things have changed my mind. The first is the fact that Schwartzel was another player that I could never catch right, but that changed last week (a good omen perhaps), and the second is Gallacher's price. When I backed Gallacher two weeks running last month he was around the [20.0] mark, now he can be backed at [80.0] to win - and at [14.0] in this market - against similar type players. His Gulf Swing form is hard to ignore (three top-12 finishes), so a missed cut last time out shouldn't have put punters off as much as it appears to have done.
Top Ten Finish
My selection in this market is a complete stab in the dark purely and simply because I wanted an Asian-born player on my side. But the wonderfully-named Kiradech Aphibarnrat is no long shot at [7.4]. The 21-year-old finished in a tie for third - alongside Davies - here last year, and after numerous close finishes he finally won his maiden Asian Tour title when he triumphed at the SAIL Open just three weeks ago. You can do much worse than back a recent winner, a player with proven course form, and someone who knows the culture so well; and in Aphibarnrat you'll also have an extremely enjoyable character to follow.
Recommended Bets
Back Rhys Davies at [36.0] in Winner market
Back Stephen Gallacher at [14.0] in Top Five Finish market
Back Kiradech Aphibarnrat at [7.4] in Top Ten Finish market
Total pts bet this season (one pt bet per selection): 30
Total pts returned: 10.75
2011 European Tour season Profit/Loss: -19.25
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