Randwick Guineas: Mosheen makes history

Australia / Timeform / 19 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mosheen has completed the Australian Guineas – Randwick Guineas double

"Mosheen.. is currently the second highest Timeform rated three-year-old filly over 1600m to 2000m, behind Atlantic Jewel (128+)."

The records keep tumbling for crack filly Mosheen who overcame difficulties last Saturday to win the G1 Randwick Guineas over 1600m at headquarters...

The win by Mosheen made her the first filly to win the Randwick Guineas since it's inauguration in 2006, replacing the time honoured Canterbury Guineas that had been previously run over 1900m dating back to 1935.

In addition Mosheen is the first horse to have won the Australian Guineas - Randwick Guineas double, as well as the first filly to win the treble of Group o1 races, VRC Oaks-Australian Guineas-Randwick Guineas, something we may not see achieved again for a very long time.

It takes an exceptional filly to win those three races and Mosheen has certainly proved herself that. However, to some extent she still lives in the shadow of another filly, the unbeaten Atlantic Jewel who treated Mosheen with such contempt in the 1000 Guineas over 1600m at Caulfield last October.

Admittedly Mosheen has improved a great deal since then, but so too has Atlantic Jewel and even trainer Robert Smerdon who regards Mosheen as the best horse he has trained, is not keen to engage Atlantic Jewel anytime soon.

In its short history the Randwick Guineas has quickly made a name for itself as quality race, capable of producing good horses.

The 2011 renewal won by Ilovethiscity has not produced as many subsequent winners as the other renewals have but Queensland Derby Shootoff winner was in that field.

However the 2010 renewal produced subsequent G1 AJC Derby winner Shoot Out, G1 Epsom Handicap winner Captain Sonador, G1 Rosehill Guineas winner Zabrasive, G1 SA Derby winner Kidnapped and G1 Railway Stakes winner Gathering.

The previous four renewals have produced nine subsequent G1 winners and 20 overall Stakes winners - not bad for a race only in its infancy.

Last Saturday's Randwick Guineas was looked upon as a match between G1 winning gelding Manawanui and Mosheen, however with 200m to travel neither looked a chance of victory.

Manawanui who again travelled close to the lead failed to detonate when put under pressure while Mosheen was still some five lengths off the lead and looking for clear running.

Once rider Dan Nikolic angled Mosheen into the open she accelerated like the good horse she is quickly gathering up the leaders to win surging away by a neck.

The final assessment of the race was not straightforward. In this instance the margin is not reflective of the merit of the win plus second and third placegetters Said Com and Laser Hawk were both coming off restricted class races both factors tending to hold the race back to a value under the five year average.

Others factors in the mix when assessing the quality of the race are, a bunched finish, the fact Mosheen was coming off a career peak effort at her previous start fourteen days prior and those efforts are seldom backed up next start. Mosheen also suffered buffeting during the race that cost her valuable ground.

Consequently Mosheen ran to a 115+ Timeform rating some nine pounds under her previous peak figure while Said Com and Laser Hawk ran to vastly improved ratings of 118 and 117 respectively.

Interestingly fourth placegetter Ambidexter ran to his master value while Manawanui continues his current flat line ratings profile around nine pounds under his peak Spring rating.

In respect of Manawanui, maybe the arduous Spring campaign that saw him "spent" when narrowly downed by Helmet after a titanic struggle all the way up the Caulfield straight is having an impact on him regaining his best form?

Certainly there are signs emerging this campaign with both Helmet and Manawanui this could be the case. Both are currently well below form.

I will be surprised if the form from the Randwick Guineas does not hold up and again prove to be a strong reference over the coming weeks.

As for Mosheen, she is currently the second highest Timeform rated three-year-old filly over 1600m to 2000m, behind Atlantic Jewel (128+). Quality Sydney filly Streama has a Timeform rating of 122 at 1600m, but is yet to be tried over a middle or staying distance.

Mosheen's immediate target will be the G1 Vinery Stakes over 2000m at Rosehill in two weeks time where she races against her own age and sex. The opposition will be easier than she raced against in either of her last two outings and she looks certain to start very much in the red.

Under those circumstances, it is hard to see her improving her master rating past 124 in that assignment, but the AJC Oaks (her next probable race) could be a different story as she will meet improving New Zealand Oaks winner Silent Achiever.

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The Randwick Guineas is the feature event on Saturday, and Timeform's Australian team highlight their three best bets from 'Down Under'......

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Champion Bumper: History gives a steer on how to tackle the race

Ante-post / Simon Rowlands / 22 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Village Vic (right) at Newbury

"...favour experience over potential, achievement over promise, and do not be put off by a horse having suffered one, or possibly two, defeats."

It is [10.0] the field ante-post in the Champion Bumper, but recent contests show that certain types of horses tend to do well and/or be underbet. Simon Rowlands took the journey from ignorance to enlightenment...

I start this blog with an admission: while I have managed to watch most of the major jumps races of this season, my day (or should that be "night"?) job has meant that I am more familiar with the runners at Beulah Park and Tampa Bay Downs than with much of what has been going on in bumpers in Britain and Ireland of late.

As my task this week consists of blogging about the Cheltenham Champion Bumper market, I hope you will understand that I felt the need to resort to some help!

So, as a starting point, I looked at all runners in the race since 2000 - 238 of them in total - and tried to establish which types of horses have performed well and badly, and which horses have tended to be overbet and underbet. The results were encouraging enough to prompt me to part with some hard-earned cash. Let's see if you agree.

As mentioned many times previously, simple win-loss strike-rates are too crude a measure. For a start, they do not allow for variations in opportunity as defined by field size, and they do not distinguish between an abject loss and a heroic defeat.

Instead, I used percentage of rivals beaten (%RB) and the profit/loss to an each-way stake at starting price in which the stake is varied according to price (the longer the odds, the less is staked).

There was not a lot to report by age-group (four-year-olds were slightly below par in terms of %RB but were less overbet than five- and six-year-olds) or by the number of previous wins, but there was a much clearer picture in terms of the profitability, or otherwise, by number of runs.

There was not a lot in it judged by %RB, but horses with three or (ideally) four runs to their names have been undervalued by the market. Horses that had raced just once - of which there were 82 cases - had been notably bad betting propositions.

In a related find, unbeaten horses (which many once-raced individuals were) had returned a large loss, while horses who had won between 50% and 75% of their races had done a good deal better than market expectation.

Perhaps most tellingly of all, a high pre-race Timeform rating - defined as 118 or more - not only saw 67.7%RB (where 50% would be par) but showed a profit against starting price through the staking suggested.

What may gain less favour from my employers is that I can also point out that horses with a 'p' or 'P' symbol on their Timeform rating (signifying the likelihood of more than normal or considerable improvement) fared better than par in terms of %RB but much worse in terms of profitability. Horses with obvious potential tend to be overbet, in other words.

A pattern seems to be emerging, which I would summarise thus: favour experience over potential, achievement over promise, and do not be put off by a horse having suffered one, or possibly two, defeats.

Running through the ante-post market on Betfair, three horses made the most appeal by these criteria.

Moscow Mannon just about heads the market after winning the last three of his four races and earning a Timeform rating of 119+. In his last two runs he has given weight and impressive beatings to fairly useful rivals.

Clonbanan Lad has won both his races but has achieved quite a bit more in doing so than other unraced horses at shorter odds. His rating of 122+ would have been good enough to win three or possibly four of the last 10 runnings of the Cheltenham Bumper.

Village Vic might well be unbeaten were it not for inexperience which saw him go down by just a short head to Shutthefrontdoor at Newbury last time (had run away with Chepstow bumper on only other start) and could yet improve on his 118 rating.

Moscow Mannon is marginally my preferred, but all three are worth having on your side in a race which can be one of the most difficult to pin down at the entire Festival.

Recommendations: 2 pts win Moscow Mannon at [10.0]; 1 pt win Clonbanan lad at [21.0], 1 pt win Village Vic at [21.0].

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Champions League Final: Key battles and recent history

Champions League / Jonathan Wilson / 26 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Lucky number 13? Ji-Sung Park will be key for United

"Park is, quite simply, the best defensive forward in the world. Dealing with Alves will be one of the key tasks for United and it’s hard to believe Park will not be the man to do so."

Jonathan Wilson provides an erudite analysis of Saturday's big match, looking at recent ties between Manchester United and Barcelona and explaining where the important battles will be fought.

When Manchester United [4.1] face Barcelona [2.06] in the Champions League final, it will be their fourth encounter in a little over three years. Past performance, of course, is no guarantee of future results, but perhaps those three games can provide clues as to what will happen on Saturday.

The three games in question are the 2009 Champions League final, in which Barcelona beat Manchester United 2-0, and the two legs of the semi-final a year earlier, in which United forced a goalless draw in Barcelona and then won 1-0 at Old Trafford.

What is perhaps most striking about those three games is the comparison with the previous games between United and Barcelona. When they met in 1998-99 in the first group stage of the Champions League, they provided two magnificent spectacle, drawing both encounters 3-3. That, though, was in the brief golden age of attacking play that culminated in Euro 2000.

Both sides have tempered their approach since: United by abandoning the gung-ho 4-4-2 that occasionally left them vulnerable to counter-attacks, and Barca by pursuing a policy of fundamentalist possession football which, as Arsene Wenger remarked earlier in the season, can lead to "sterile domination". That was seen even in the final, in which Barcelona, having taken a tenth-minute lead, were almost entirely in control and yet won only 2-0. So the last three games between United and Barca have between them yielded only half as many goals as each of the previous two games, which suggests the
under 2.5 goals market might be worth a look [1.73].

The first of the most recent three matches, the goalless draw in the Camp Nou was significant in that it marked a real turning point for United. Any pretence that they were still the cavalier side of old went as they packed men behind the ball, despite a starting line-up that included Owen Hargreaves at right-back, and Cristiano Ronaldo, Carlos Tevez and Wayne Rooney. Lionel Messi, playing on the right in those days, was barely involved, so ineffective he was taken off after 62 minutes. This time, of course, it will not be Patrice Evra who is asked to deal with the Argentinian but, after his move into a more central role, some combination of the two centre-backs and whoever United field at the back of the midfield.

In the return at Old Trafford, United took a 14th-minute goal through a Paul Scholes stroke, and held on to it with relative ease despite being without Rooney and Nemanja Vidic. Wes Brown partnered Rio Ferdinand in the centre of defence, with Paul Scholes and Michael Carrick sitting deep in central midfield. Nani was used centrally, playing off Tevez, with Ronaldo to the right and Park Ji-Sung to the left.

Park did a superb job in forcing Gianluca Zambrotta, Barca's right-back, deep, and he will presumably be employed in a similar role on Saturday, although Dani Alves is a far more potent threat going forward than Zambrotta was by that stage of his career. That the South Korean was employed on the other side, against Sylvinho, in the final of two years ago, always seemed odd. He is, quite simply, the best defensive forward in the world, so to ask him to attack the weaker full-back while Rooney came up against Carles Puyol was unusual. Dealing with Alves will be one of the key tasks for United and it's hard to believe Park will not be the man asked to do so.

United were actually much the better side in the first 10 minutes of that final, before lax defending let Eto'o in to score the opener, after which Carrick and Anderson went into meltdown. If Ryan Giggs is Carrick's partner in the centre of midfield, it's hard to imagine a similar capitulation. It may be, though, that Darren Fletcher, who was suspended two years ago, comes in to give United more bite in midfield. If not, it places a huge onus on Rooney, who seems certain to play centrally, to be the ball-winner. He, anyway, will have a responsibility to stifle Sergio Busquets, who pretty much had the run of the pitch in Rome the last time they met.

They're the big outsiders and they ended up on the losing side the last time they met Barcelona in a Champions League final but the Betfair Contrarian is convinced Manchester United will come good on Saturday night....

Matthew Walton looks at the past 18 Champions League/European Cup finals to highlight the trends that count ahead of Saturday's showpiece...

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