Italian Football 
/ Dave Farrar / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Palermo boss Delio Rossi
"Parma may have improved lately, but they’re still not as good a side as Palermo, and I’ll certainly be laying Parma at what is a ridiculously short price."
In years gone by a club that needed to win against a club that had nothing to play for meant just one outcome, but perhaps not anymore says Dave Farrar.
Parma v Palermo
A few weeks ago, Parma's fans were getting used to the fact that they'd be supporting a Serie B side again next season, but in the last two weeks the team has dredged up a couple of remarkable performances to beat both Inter at home and then Udinese away, and now Parma find themselves three points above the drop zone with others fading fast. The job isn't done yet, though, and another resurgent team in the shape of Palermo will provide stern opposition on Sunday.
Parma are [2.02] to win, and it's easy to see why that price is as short as it is; the home team have it all to play for, the away team are safely in the top 10, and so, as the Serie A way goes, Parma will be gifted the win. We'd do well to remember that, at the start of the month, Parma welcomed a Bari team here which had pretty much already been relegated. It was a marriage of convenience if ever there was one but Bari won 2-1 and the cynics had discovered that the ground had moved beneath them. And trust me, if this match is to be a fix in favour of the home team, then Parma would be [1.3] to win, not [2.02].
Parma may have improved lately, but they're still not as good a side as Palermo, and I'll certainly be laying Parma at what is a ridiculously short price. Despite their relatively static position in the table, Palermo's players have good reason to be motivated. The club's maverick President, Maurizio Zamparini, has said that Delio Rossi will be in a job next season, but given the respect that the players have for Rossi, and the trigger happy nature of Zamparini's stewardship so far, they'll want to make sure that they finish as high up the table as possible and give Zamparini no cause whatsoever to sack Rossi for a second time in the calendar year.
I'm tempted by the [4.6] about a Palermo win, and those of you who like to split your stakes and lay one team while backing the other should take advantage of that price. I'm not getting greedy though, and will lay a Parma team for whom a draw wouldn't be a disaster.
Recommendation: Lay Parma against Palermo @ [2.02]
Fiorentina v Udinese
Another team with absolutely everything to gain from a victory, Udinese, travel to Florence, and the men from the Friuli are being priced up far shorter than an away side would normally be for a trip like this. The reason for that, of course, is once again the perception that Fiorentina aren't at all bothered about winning, while Udinese are desperate to. That's why we're able to back Fiorentina at [2.6] and that's well worth doing.
Udinese will very possibly have to do without their three best players on Sunday; Gokhan Inler is definitely out through suspension, Alexis Sanchez has probably played his last game for the club after picking up a muscle injury, and Antonio Di Natale is struggling after reporting that he's feeling unwell.
While the excellent Udinese coach Francesco Guidolin must try and make the best of the players that he has available, it's somehow hard to see the Fiorentina coach Sinisa Mihaijlovic sending out a team and allowing them to play at anything other than their best. There are players with points to prove, most notably Adrian Mutu, and with Riccardo Montolivo and Valon Behrami rejoined by Juan Vargas in a powerful looking midfield, there's every reason to suspect that Fiorentina's front three could have a fun afternoon.
La Viola won this fixture 4-1 last season, and while I can't see that kind of scoreline, the home side should certainly be backed at a price which is based on motivation, rather than reality.
Recommendation: Back Fiorentina to beat Udinese @ [2.6]
Dave Farrar believes both his featured games will provide plenty of goals this weekend, but perhaps the best bet could be for Lazio to grab a famous victory at Inter....
After this weekend's action we're closer to knowing who will be winning the major European leagues and that includes Serie A, after Napoli lost at home to Udinese. It's now AC Milan's to lose, says Ben Lyttleton....
Inter are all but out of this title race in the eyes of Dave Farrar and it's left to AC Milan and Napoli to fight to the bitter death. They should both win pretty comfortably this weekend......
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