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/ Short-Stacked Shamus / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment
“Most of your opponents in small-stakes games don't use the process described in this book to try to read your hand," explains Miller. "They try to guess hands you could have, and often their perceptions are colored by their emotions.”
We all know that in no-limit hold'em it is important to think beyond our own hand and give some attention to figuring out what our opponents might be holding. Of course, that's easier said than done for a lot of us, especially those among us who automatically fear the worst whenever a flop c-bet fails to get a desired fold. If you fall into that group -- or if you are simply looking for solid, well-presented advice to help bolster your NLHE game -- Ed Miller's latest offering, How to Read Hands at No-Limit Hold'em, provides an excellent source of instruction.
In addition to numerous strategy columns he has contributed to Card Player magazine and frequent postings on his aptly-named website, Noted Poker Authority, Miller has now authored or co-authored a half-dozen strategy texts, all of which focus on limit hold'em, no-limit hold'em, or both.
Thanks both to Miller's consistently clear, accessible style and the wealth of insight one finds in his books, titles from Miller are highly regarded within the poker community, frequently recommended as must-reads for those looking to improve their hold'em games. Thus even in an era when poker strategy books have largely given way to instructional videos, forums, and coaching, the appearance of a new text from Miller has already been greeted with anticipation and interest.
As the title suggests, How to Read Hands at No-Limit Hold'em presents an extended, focused lesson that primarily concentrates on one crucial aspect of NLHE, namely, how to deduce from available evidence what hands are among those our opponents are likely to hold. The book is chiefly geared toward small-stakes live games -- i.e., with blinds of $1/$2 or $2/$5 -- although the advice it contains readily applies to the micro/low limit online games, too.
The book is arranged in three parts. The first part, titled "Core Hand Reading," begins by discussing player types typically encountered at the small-stakes NLHE tables, then addresses at length central concepts for reading hands on all streets (preflop, flop, turn, and river). Then comes another long part titled "Hand Reading Variations" in which special circumstances are addressed, including those times when opponents do more than just call our bets but start raising and reraising themselves. Finally comes a short section of hand analyses, "Hand Reading in Practice," which brings together the many ideas that come before.
Nits, Fish, and Regulars
While the idea of grouping our opponents into categories isn't new, Miller provides a somewhat different approach to this exercise when he characterizes the small-stakes NLHE game as primarily attracting three core types: the nits, the fish, and the regulars.
As Miller explains, all three of these types possess certain characteristics that can help us with our hand-reading. And -- importantly -- we rarely if ever encounter at our $1/$2 games masterful "Tom Dwan"-types who cannot be classified as belonging to one of these three groups. Those who play at a higher level generally play for higher stakes, Miller reasonably points out, thus making the task of reading hands at the small-stakes games somewhat easier to manage.
After additionally arming us with a few "principles" of these games (i.e., players at these games do what they do for a reason, players tend not to bluff correctly or enough, large bets tell us more than small ones), Miller constructs beginning hand ranges for each of the types based on preflop action. Then, as we proceed through the flop, turn, and river, Miller shows us how to narrow down those ranges according to board texture and betting.
Stop Guessing, Start Reading
Since most players at these limits (even the fish) tend toward "fit or fold" poker, their calls of our bets after the flop generally signal that they have something with which to proceed, described by Miller as either a "strong fit" (made hands, draws) or a "weak fit" (overcards, underpairs).
The method of analysis recommended by Miller for figuring out what kind of "fit" our opponent might have is mostly probability-driven, although as already suggested how we go about making such calculations should be opponent-dependent. For example, once we've determined an opponent is a "nit" or relatively tight player, we are able to construct a hand range for him after he calls our preflop raise. Then when he calls our flop bet, that allows us to narrow his range further, and so forth through the hand.
Then, from within that range Miller invites us to think about combinations of possible hands as indicated by unseen cards. Some of these calculations are quite involved, but Miller's explanations are clear and easy enough to follow. He also provides shortcuts for making such calculations on the fly, although his primary advice is to get used to doing such work between sessions in order to make it easier to make decisions at the tables.
Thus, say, when a nit calls our preflop raise from the blinds, check-calls the flop and turn, then bets out on the river, Miller shows us how we can make a fairly precise (if not exact) read of our opponent's hand by looking at his preflop calling range, how his calls on the flop and turn narrow that range, then figuring out on the river what combinations of hands are still available with which he might bet into us.
Such effort will immediately distinguish us from many of our opponents, says Miller. As he explains, "Most of your opponents in small-stakes games don't use the process described in this book to try to read your hand. They do try to read your hand. They're just not systematic about it. They try to guess hands you could have, and often their perceptions are colored by their emotions. They think of hands they're worried you could have. Or they think of hands they hope you have."
Thus it is Miller's goal to show us how to avoid such fuzzy thinking influenced more by fear and hope than by logic and analysis.
Thinking Beyond Our Own Hand
The second part, "Hand Reading Variations," covers a number of topics and situations, including what to do when opponents don't "cooperate" and starting raising us, how to handle multiway pots (common in $1/$2 games), how to recognize "polarized ranges," and other tips for further narrowing opponents' possible holdings.
Throughout the book, Miller punctuates sections with useful exercises that give readers opportunities to do the kinds of away-from-the-table work he's recommending. He also provides ideas for how to profile players relatively quickly based on their play plus an understanding of the relative percentage of loose and tight players one typically finds in small-stakes games.
For much of the first two parts, Miller sticks with discussing concepts, although he often illustrates ideas with hand examples. Interestingly, in many of these examples our hand is not even noted -- instead we're basing our reads primarily on the actions of opponents (calling, raising, reraising) and the community cards. The method highlights how reading others' hands has much more to do with factors other than the two cards we are holding than some of us might think (although we do account for those cards when removing them from our opponents' ranges).
We are told what our hole cards are in the sample hands from a $2/$5 game that Miller discusses in Part III, "Hand Reading in Practice." In each he takes us up to a decision point -- e.g., it has been checked to us on the river and we must decide whether to bet, and if so, how much -- then carries us through the process of profiling, analyzing action, then counting and discounting hand combinations in order to narrow down our opponent's range and base our decision on the resulting probabilities.
Developing the Hand-Reading Instinct
Toward the end of the book Miller describes a typical conversation he has with his students regarding a commonly-faced situation in no-limit hold'em. You raise before flop and are called, then after a Jc-7d-2s flop your c-bet gets called. The Kc then comes on the turn, at which point Miller asks his students "'What hands could your opponent have now?'"
"Nearly every time," says Miller, "the first hand my students will say is 'King-jack.'"
Is this you? Does your "hand-reading" often work this way, that is, almost instinctively to narrow down your opponent's "range" to a single hand that might well be labeled "Worst Case Scenario"?
As Miller shows his students, in this case K-J is in fact an unlikely holding -- something a simple understanding of probability helps clarify -- and in fact that overcard on the turn is often going to be a good one on which to barrel again.
It's hard, though, for a lot of us to get past emotions and think logically in these spots. Or, indeed, most spots. All of which makes Miller's How to Read Hands at No-Limit Hold'em a especially valuable resource for the player with some experience and knowledge at the game who wants help improving upon this crucial skill of hand-reading.
Miller's book is currently available as an e-book via his website, Noted Poker Authority.
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