Italian Football 
/ Dave Farrar / 04 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Dave believes that Milan would be significantly weakened without Alexandre Pato
"I’m going for Milan to win a low scoring game by the odd goal."
Juve are out of form but Milan face a tough task if they are to overcome their old rivals, says Dave Farrar. Meanwhile, can the capped crusader overcome Lazio? And make sure you watch Udinese.
Juventus v Milan
That price of [5.3] that was being laid about a Napoli win on Monday night tempted me in, and let's face it, I was wrong. Milan were much the better side, particularly in the second half. Conspiracy theories have been rife in Italy this week, with Inter fans certain that Milan influenced the referee at San Siro. Even if that is true, Napoli were poor: tired, unambitious, and there for the taking.
The romantics among us would like to think that brilliant Udinese could come from the clouds and snatch the title at a massive price, but it's a two horse race now, and Milan's difficult run in continues with a trip to Turin to play their old rivals Juventus.
Juve have been in desperate form lately, losing to Lecce and Bologna in the last two weeks, but before we pile on Milan at [2.62], we must remember two things: the Rossoneri have a huge Champions League game against Tottenham in midweek, and Juventus play much better against big clubs than they do against the likes of Lecce and Bologna. They've lost six in ten, but they beat Inter three games ago: go figure.
The other thing to bear in mind is that Juve won at Milan back in October, but those were the days when Fabio Quagliarella was fit and Juve looked to have a genuine title chance. There are rumours that Massimiliano Allegri is going to rest Pato with a view to the Spurs game, and that would worry me, as the young Brazilian is in fine form and was the key man against Napoli. Giorgio Chiellini has a good record against Zlatan Ibrahimovic and so with no Pato, Milan may have to rely on goals from elsewhere.
Even though they beat Inter, Juve are hard to fancy on their current run, and the fight may just have gone out of Gigi Delneri's team. Milan have the best away record in Serie A, and the feeling that this game may be a likelier route to silverware than the Champions League could well mean that we see a polished, bloodless, Milan win. So, after careful consideration, and with due respect to Alessandro Matri, a player I like a great deal, I'm going for Milan to win a low scoring game by the odd goal.
Recommendation: Back Milan to win 1-0 @ [9.0]
Lazio v Palermo
The cap wearing maniac Serse Cosmi is back, and Serie A is a far richer league for his return. Delio Rossi was sacked from his job as Palermo coach last week and Cosmi now has until the end of the season to convince President Zamparini to give him the job on a full time basis. Forget football - I would pay good money to be a fly on the wall in a Cosmi-Zamparini meeting. It's not a relationship that anyone can see lasting long, but there will be fireworks as long as it lasts.
The question we have to ask ourselves as punters is whether we should keep opposing Palermo after their 7-0 capitulation against Udinese last week. In short, yes. They have the same injury problems (Mattia Cassani might be back, but that won't solve everything) and they still look awfully fragile at the back.
Lazio have done well to stay in fourth place after setting the pace in Serie A and then falling away, and their home form has been largely excellent. The Olimpico can be a soulless place on a Sunday afternoon, but that seems to suit Edy Reja's team: they're mega professional, tight defensively, and usually find a way to get a goal. They somehow don't seem to need passion flooding onto the pitch from the Curva. The opposite, in fact of a team like Palermo: the men in pink are capable of turning in unforgettable performances at home when the Renzo Barbera is full, but on a quiet night, or away from Sicily, their spark and energy seems to vanish.
They have won four away from home, but they were at Lecce, Cesena and, impressively, at Fiorentina and Juventus. Cosmi will make them play with pride, but those who think of the "bounce" factor of a new coach should also bear in mind that Lazio have their sights set on the Champions League, and don't think for a minute that they will be outfought.
After a normal week, I'd have fancied Lazio to win this, and an unsettled Palermo defence shorn of confidence makes me doubly confident. Lazio haven't scored four goals in a game all season, so the "Any Unquoted" correct score is pushing it at [12.0], but Lazio are rock solid at odds against to win, probably comfortably.
Recommended bet: Back Lazio to beat Palermo @ [2.06]
Finally, a quick warning to those of you who are tempted to pile into Udinese at home against the bottom club Bari. Udinese have been the team of the year, and I make no apology for constantly referring to their brilliant style of play. If you haven't yet watched them, then make sure that you do. However, their title challenge has turned into a Champions League challenge because of their inability to beat poor teams at home. Since the turn of the year, they've played thrilling counter attacking football away from home, and yet drawn at the Friuli against both Bologna and Brescia. If they'd won those games they'd be just seven points behind Milan.
The Bari coach Bortolo Mutti is very clever and experienced, and will play for a 0-0. It won't keep his team up, but may restore some pride. Udinese are the likelier winners, but are no [1.31] pokes. And under 2.5 goals at [2.34] is hugely tempting. Four of Udinese's last five home games have featured two goals or fewer, and while my heart says I want to watch them dish out another Alexis Sanchez inspired thrashing, my head tells me to be very, very careful.
Juve are out of form but Milan face a tough task if they are to overcome their old rivals, says Dave Farrar. Meanwhile, can the capped crusader overcome Lazio? And make sure you watch Udinese....
There's a very good chance that in two weeks time we'll no longer have any Italian representatives left in European competitions. Rigid ractics and a lack of dynamism are partly to blame, says Jonathan Wilson....
There's a long way to go yet in this season's Serie A race and they may well drop points as soon as Monday night when Napoli come calling. Elsewhere Udinese can spring a bit of an upset of their own....
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