Manchester United 
/ Soccer Widow / 25 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Antonio Valencia - firing on all cylinders
"Fulham's recent record at Old Trafford is abysmal with just one win from the last 12 games there in all competitions. United won the other 11, seven of them by a two-goal-or-more margin."
Soccerwidow studies the stats and finds stand-out value bets as Manchester United bid to steal a march on their title rivals.
It would have been too good to be true for fans of Manchester United if Chelsea had held on at Manchester City in mid-week. But with Stoke putting up an heroic performance on Saturday, the Red Devils can create a three point cushion on Monday night against Fulham.
Fulham's recent record at Old Trafford is abysmal with just one win from the last 12 games played there in all competitions, whilst United have won the other 11, seven of those by a two-goal-or-more margin. Fulham's recent away record in the Premier League is not much more promising, winning just five of their last 25 (20%), and losing on 11 occasions (44%).
Sir Alex Ferguson will hope that his squad comfortably defeats Fulham and makes in-roads into the four goal difference between City and United. Fulham are the league's lowest scorers away from home but will feature Pavel Pogrebnyak up front, who has scored in a victory over United, for former club Zenit St Petersburg in the 2008 European Super Cup match.
The United team will probably be without Nani but this is not an issue with Antonio Valencia fully fit and firing on all cylinders again. United look more balanced whenever he plays and his composure and unselfish approach in front of goal contrasts with Nani, who more often than not looks to shoot on sight, with only moderate results.
Detailed Stats Analysis
Head-to-Head record last 12 games; Manchester United at home, Fulham away (all competitions since 1998-99):
• Full-time: United 11 wins (91.67%); no draws; Fulham one win (8.33%); Last six (most recent first): H-H-H-H-H-H
• Full-time: United winning by two-goals-or-more: seven times (58.3%); Fulham winning by two-goals-or-more: once (8.33%)
• Half-time: United eight wins (66.67%); four draws (33.33%); Fulham no wins (0%)
• Full-time over 2.5 goals eight times (66.67%); full-time over 3.5 goals four times (33.33%)
• Total goals last six meetings (most recent first): 2-3-3-2-6-6
Manchester United's last 25 Premier League home games:
• Full-time: 22 wins (88%); one draw (4%); two defeats (8%); Last six (most recent first): W-W-W-W-L-W
• Full-time: winning by two goals or more: 14 times (63.6% of their 22 wins)
• Half-time: United 16 wins (64%); seven draws (28%); two defeats (8%)
• Full-time over 2.5 goals 15 times (60%); full-time over 3.5 goals nine times (36%)
• Total goals last six home games (most recent first): 2-3-2-3-5-5
Fulham's last 25 Premier League away games:
• Full-time: five wins (20%); nine draws (36%); 11 defeats (44%); Last six (most recent first): L-W-L-L-D-D
• Full-time: winning by two goals or more: four times (80% of their five wins)
• Half-time: Fulham six wins (24%); 10 draws (40%); nine defeats (36%)
• Full-time over 2.5 goals six times (24%); full-time over 3.5 goals twice (8%)
• Total goals last six away games (most recent first): 1-1-3-4-2-2
Summary
Interesting to see how few goals feature in Fulham's away fixtures with 13 out of 25 games (52%) finishing with just two, four matches with only one (16%), plus two 0-0 draws (8%). All told, 76% of their last 25 league games away from home have finished under 2.5 goals.
United have not had a single 0-0, have had only four home matches involving just a single goal (16%), plus six games with a total of two goals (24%). These statistics equate to 40% of their last 25 league home games ending with fewer than 2.5 goals.
Of Fulham's last 25 away fixtures, 92% have ended under 3.5 goals as opposed to 64% of United's last 25 home games.
This is another game where the market has determined the 'draw' odds by taking the league average into consideration rather than head-to-head comparisons. The current lay odds are [6.8], whereas in reality, the 'true' draw odds are [10.0]. Laying the draw is therefore a possibility with only a 10% chance of it occurring. Whether the prudent bettor wishes to 'gamble' with odds this high is another matter.
Value Bet Recommendations:
Back full-time under 3.5 goals (odds [1.60] 'true' odds 1.38; value 56.9%; probability 72.33%)
Because of the very clear prognosis this week, there are hardly any value bets to be found for this match. No matter which formulae are used to compile the probabilities and odds this is one of those exceptional games where all computations lead to the same results and the whole market seems to be in agreement.
So, only two 'value bet' recommendations but herewith a few other ideas which, although highly likely to occur, do not necessarily carry any 'value'.
It is 46% likely that Manchester United will win both halves, with current odds at [2.3]; 93% likely that Fulham will not keep a clean sheet at odds of [1.08]; 57% likely that United will keep a clean sheet at odds of [1.88]
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