La Liga Preview: Emery could leave Sociedad biting their nails

"Over 2.5 Goals has been the right bet in 7/8 Sevilla home games and 8/13 Sociedad away matches"

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75/7

The Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan is the setting for the biggest game of La Liga's ante-penultimate weekend. Tobias Gourlay reckons in-form Sevilla's clash with fading Sociedad will be fun...

Zaragoza v Athletic Bilbao
Sunday 18:00

Zaragoza 1.910/11 Athletic 4.3100/30 draw 3.9n/a

Athletic are unbeaten in four and the seven points accrued in that run will likely keep their 'never been relegated' boasts alive.

Just to be sure, Marcelo Bielsa's men need one more point from the final three rounds of the season.

Seven points from nine have fired Zaragoza out of the relegation zone, but they need more wins.

Athletic have scored in 12/14 on the road and conceded in 12/14 on the road.

Zaragoza have been potent in attack recently - scoring six in two at La Romareda - and porous in defence all season, shutting out their visitors in only 3/17.

Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.84/5

Barcelona v Valladolid
Sunday 20:00

Barcelona 1.3130/100 Valladolid 11.010/1 draw 6.611/2

Barcelona are champions and are now playing for the artificial prize of equalling Real Madrid's all-time points record (100, set last year).

To make three figures Tito Vilanova's men must win each of their last three games.

Leo Messi will sit out the rest of the season, but other team news is scant.

We'll focus on the other end of the pitch. Valladolid have scored in nine straight rounds of La Liga and in each of the last 17 in which talismanic wide-forward Patrick Ebert has appeared.

Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.774/5

Granada v Osasuna
Saturday 19:00
Granada 2.186/5 Osasuna 4.216/5 draw 3.259/4

Together on 36 points, these two are four clear of the drop zone. 

A draw would be useful to both, and respect the improvements they have recently shown: Osasuna beat Getafe last time out, while Granada are unbeaten in four.

That said, the hosts still have La Liga's worst home record (W4-D6-L7) and haven't scored more than once in any of Lucas Alcaraz's seven matches at Los Carmenes.

We're ready to take them on - and will front up with either the straight draw or a bet that goes even further.

The visitors have scored twice or more in 3/6 on the road. Backing Osasuna 0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap pays out on half your stake if the game finishes all-square and you'll get a full payout if the away side take all three points.

Recommended Bet
Back Osasuna 0 & +0.5 @ 2.26/5

Sevilla v Sociedad
Saturday 21:00
Sevilla 2.0811/10 Sociedad 3.613/5 draw 4.03/1

In the race for Spain's final Champions League spot, Real Sociedad have given up a five-point lead over Valencia in the last couple of weeks.

Problems are arising at the back: Philippe Montanier's side have conceded exactly twice in 5/7 home and away. 

Unai Emery has won 7/8 at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. In all seven wins Sevilla have been ahead by half-time. If you fancy them to confirm Sociedad's loss of form, take them at 3.613/5 in the Half Time/Full Time market.

Over 2.5 Goals is a safer play. It's been the right bet in 7/8 Sevilla home games and 8/13 Sociedad away matches.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75/7

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La Liga Betting: Real Sociedad and Levante to win

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 11 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Sevilla's Luis Fabiano is out of the picture for the Barcelona game this weekend

"Martin Lasarte’s Real Sociedad have rewarded their backers at Inoeta this season, returning a good profit from all matches"

Tobias Gourlay enters Basque Country, but only has eyes for the formbook.

Real Madrid v Hercules (Saturday 1900 GMT)

Hercules have not scored an away goal in La Liga since 24 October. They are ten games without one and it is hard to conceive of anything other than a routine home win for Real Madrid on Saturday evening.

Cristiano Ronaldo is injured, but Real have never previously suffered much in his absence. The rest of the squad might be thinking about next week's Champions League game with Lyon, but 13 wins out of 13 and five clean sheets in seven games at the Bernabeu say they should Win to Nil again this weekend.

Real Sociedad v Malaga (Sunday 1600 GMT)

Martin Lasarte's Real Sociedad have rewarded their backers at Inoeta this season, returning a good profit from all matches and a bigger one from those in which they have started as favourites.

This weekend, they are [2.1] to beat Malaga, whose previous away result was a 7-0 besting at the Bernabeu. More shocking even than that was last weekend's home defeat to Osasuna, who had gone a very long time without an away win.

Coach Manuel Pellegrini admitted defeat before the Real game in order to concentrate on the Osasuna encounter. Will he be able to concentrate at all now that the Osasuna game has been lost and the media are berating him for his pragmatism?

Sociedad have won 8/13 home games this season and three of the last four - only newly rejuvenated Levante (more of whom below) have stopped them recently.

The Basques are [2.1] to win on Sunday.

Levante v Real Mallorca (Sunday 1600 GMT)

So, Levante. We discussed their renaissance here last week. (Or is it a 'naissance' if they have never been this good before?)

Whatever it is, long may it continue. Or, at least, long may the layers continue not to recognise it. They are [2.3] to beat Real Mallorca at home this weekend and the sweet smell of value hangs over that price.

Mallorca won at Espanyol recently, but their hosts were in the middle of losing six out of seven Liga games. That is most definitely not the case with Levante, who have won five of the last seven.

Sevilla v Barcelona (Sunday 2000 GMT)

Luis Fabiano was injured in Sevilla's last match and is out for six weeks. The Brazil No. 9 is not as important to his club as his reputation might suggest - his strike partner, Freddie Kanoute, is the real leader of the line. But the Andalusians might notice Fabiano's absence against the champions this weekend.

At the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan, eight of the last 10 games involving the Big Two have produced Over 2.5 Goals. The problem in backing that outcome in this game is twofold. First, Barcelona are not scoring as freely as they were earlier in the season. Second, who is going to get the ball to Freddie Kanoute and Alvaro Negredo for Sevilla?

Gregorio Manzano identified Sevilla's midfield as the problem area almost as soon as he was appointed last year. He wanted midfielders to come in through the transfer window, and Schalke's Ivan Rakitic and Chilean hardman Gary Medel have arrived.

If the skills they have shown at other clubs are transferable, then Sevilla's defence will be better protected and its attackers better supplied, but the integration of the pair is not yet complete.

Barcelona marmalised Sevilla at the Camp Nou earlier this season and have won 2/2 in Seville under Pep Guardiola. They are heavily odds-on to complete a hat trick on Sunday.

If Guardiola is fit to lead the team south and Carles Puyol is fit again, [1.9] for the Win to Nil will be worth considering.

Best Bet: Back Real Sociedad at [2.1] to beat Malaga
Recommended Bet: Back Levante at [2.3] to beat Real Mallorca

Tobias Gourlay enters Basque Country, but only has eyes for the formbook....

He has been the forgotten man of Real Madrid's frontline but in an unexpected twist of events, the arrival of Emmanuel Adebayor and the short-term injury to Cristiano Ronaldo have suddenly caused an upturn in fortunes for the former Lyon...

Tobias Gourlay has been flat out trying to keep up with all that the Primera Division action this week, but he is still not as stretched as Sevilla's defence....

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La Liga Betting: Sociedad to win, perhaps Valencia too

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 10 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Valencia are going for a seventh win in eight against psychologically fragile Atletico Madrid.

"Diego Forlan is being booed by the fans and his strike partner, Sergio Aguero, has realised it is time to move on."

Atletico Madrid's own coach does not really believe in them any more. And neither does Tobias Gourlay.

Atletico Madrid v Valencia (Saturday 1700 GMT)

Quique Sanchez Flores admitted his side was mentally weak after losing 3-0 to Barcelona last weekend. He did not just mean they were mentally weak in the face of the champions. It is much deeper than that. Quique is not helped by the self-serving behaviour of Atleti's board of directors and is no longer sure that he knows how to solve the problem.

Diego Forlan is being booed by the fans and his strike partner, Sergio Aguero, has realised it is time to move on. This team should not be [2.16] to beat Valencia at the Vicente Calderon on Saturday afternoon.

Valencia have won six of their last seven Liga games and 2/3 away from home. Coach Unai Emery's incessant tinkering attracts a lot of criticism, but there is usually a good reason for it. [3.75] is a great price at which to back to win, but you might want to cover the draw by taking them at [2.75] in the Draw No Bet market.

And don't forget Los Che's late-goal habit. Strikes in the last 15 minutes have changed the results of six of their last seven matches.

Sporting Gijon v Barcelona (Saturday 1900 GMT)

Barcelona have won an unprecedented 16 Liga games in a row. More than likely they will win a 17th at El Molinon on Saturday evening.

How will they win?

- By getting ahead before half-time. That is what they have done in 9/10 away games already this season.
- By a margin of at least three goals. That is what they have in all of their most recent five away games.
- By keeping a clean sheet. That is what they have done in four of their most recent five away games.

When a team is all-conquering like Barca, the opposition's patterns are less important than usual. In which case, there is value in backing any of Barcelona/Barcelona ([1.6]), Barcelona -2.5 on the Asian Handicap ([2.3]) and Barcelona Win to Nil ([2.1]).

Real Sociedad v Osasuna (Sunday 1600 GMT)

Pep Guardiola has started something in Spanish football. Full backs who attack like wingers, forwards who defend like midfielders, defenders who step into midfield, midfielders who drop into defence. It is a new formula and a very successful one so far.

Martin Lasarte has been taking notes. His Real Sociedad team play an aggressive 4-2-3-1, attacking the opposition with and without the ball, working very hard. Opponents are often taken aback by this and six of the last seven visitors to Inoeta have been behind at the end of the first half.

This weekend, Osasuna are in town. They are the La Liga's worst away team, going W0-D2-L9 outside Pamplona this season. Tack on the end of last season and they have lost 17 of their last 19 matches on the road. They have been behind at half-time in seven of the most recent eight defeats.

[3.8] for Sociedad/Sociedad?

Big. Value.

Espanyol v Real Madrid (Sunday 2000 GMT)

A couple of goals for Emmanuel Adebayor. A couple of games without injury for Kaka. There are good reasons for Jose Mourinho to be cheerful this weekend. Whether there are good reasons for Real Madrid to be [1.49] to win at Espanyol on Sunday night is debatable.

Real have only won 6/11 away from home this season. Young, hungry Espanyol have won 8/10 at Cornella-El Prat. But it must be a worry for Espanyol's backers that their two defeats have come recently and against the teams either side of Real in the table.

Better to accompany this game with a glass of Rioja than any sort of bet.

Best Bet: Back Sociedad/Sociedad at [3.8] v Osasuna
Recommended Bet: Back Valencia Draw No Bet at [2.75] v Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid's own coach does not really believe in them any more. And neither does Tobias Gourlay....

Real Madrid tried very hard to keep pace with Barcelona in the first half of the season, but are now paying for their exertions, reports Tobias Gourlay in his weekly Spanish football column....

With disharmony between management and board, new players not up to the job and refereeing decisions going against them, Real Madrid may have to give up on the Spanish title and focus on the Champions League, says Jonathan Wilson....

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