Against All Odds: Hannover to suffer hangover in Sweden

"Mirko Slomka’s Hannover team have conceded 13 goals in eight Bundesliga matches, and they have shipped seven in their last three on the road."

Lay Hannover against Helsingborgs @ 1.875/6

Hannover are odds-on for their trip to Sweden tonight against Helsingborgs in the Europa League but Paul Robinson thinks they could struggle to take all three points.

Helsingborgs have just a single point from their opening pair of matches in this competition. They lost 1-0 away to Levante before being held at home by Dutch side, FC Twente, after conceding two late goals.

It's still all to play for the reigning Allsvenskan champions and they are back to form following five straight defeats during August. Since that period, caretaker manager, Åge Hareide, has steadied the ship and The Reds have lost just one of their last eight, which was the aforementioned defeat in Spain.

Hannover top Group L with four points thanks to a draw in Holland with FC Twente and an impressive 2-1 win over Levante, where they were reduced to 10 men from the ninth minute. That red card does mean that recipient, Karim Haggui, will be suspended though, and that will weaken an already suspect backline.

Mirko Slomka's Hannover team have conceded 13 goals in eight Bundesliga matches, and they have shipped seven in their last three on the road. Their away form must be a worry for their supporters as it's now no win in four and three defeats in a row.

I can see plenty of goals in this one, but the value appears to be in laying Hannover. Their recent away form doesn't warrant a quote of 1.875/6 and that's why I'm making them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Hannover against Helsingborgs @ 1.875/6

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1st ODI Betting: Batsmen could suffer Cardiff blues

"In eight completed first-innings, the average score has been 231"

Lay the side batting first for 250 or more at around 2.809/5

Ed Hawkins, the SJA Betting Writer of the Year, previews the first match between England and South Africa at Cardiff on Friday

England
The home side are without Stuart Broad after taking the decision to rest the Twenty20 captain ahead of next month's World Cup. It is a slightly odd decision as there is plenty of time before the Sri Lanka stint and it deprives them of a fine bowler.

Instead Chris Woakes could be given a run. He has caught the eye for Warwickshire this season and is deserving of an opportunity to prove himself.

Ravi Bopara, returned to the fold after a hiatus for personal reasons, is in no form whatsoever and failed in a guest appearance for Gloucestershire against the South Africans on Wednesday. It would be a surprise if he played.

South Africa
South Africa have long been the masters of the bits and pieces one-day player. And there are plenty in this squad which form a formidable-looking jigsaw. Albie Morkel, who could biff one over the border, is a tantalising, yet often disappointing, all-rounder, while Robin Peterson, Ryan McLaren and Wayne Parnell are all fine operators in this format.

Venue and conditions
Sophia Gardens in Cardiff is something of a friend of gamblers. It is so darn reliable. Usually we can expect some wet weather and a difficult batting pitch. Throw in a toss bias and we're like pigs in mud.

If you subscribe to the view that gamblers should stick to what they know, then turn off the brain. Sophia Gardens is tricky for batsmen and we are looking to play the innings runs market. In eight completed first-innings, the average score has been 231. The highest total was by India against England last year but previous to that only Pakistan (in 2001) have managed 250 or more.

Runs have been short supply in the three CB40 matches there, too - 173, 151 and 227 have been the first-dig totals.

Better still, with rain forecast either a reduced-overs affair or a stop-start mind muddle for batsmen points to a low-scoring contest. Lay the side batting first for 250 or more at around the 2.809/5 mark.

Match odds
Hell, we could be here all day debating the respective merits of these two sides - England bat deeper, South Africa have the smarter crew - but it pales into insignificance when you consider the toss bias. Yup, it's a cracker, too.

In the seven matches which have produced results each have been won by the side chasing. Bonkers I know but it is impossible, not to mention pure folly, to ignore.

England are 2.1211/10 and South Africa are 1.8910/11. The toss is a fifty-fifty call. Or a 2.001/1 shot. So who is the value? Corrrect. It's England. Easy this betting lark really.

Top England runscorer
In batting conditions which are testing, it is not surprising that one would eschew the flashy strokemakers. So sorry, Bell, Bairstow, Bopara and Kieswetter, stodge is what we want. Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott both dropped anchor for half-tons last time out at this venue against India and you can't go far wrong by favouring them again.

Top South Africa runscorer
We should apply the same rule from the England market. Hashim Amla and Graeme Smith are expected to open the batting and both have techniques tight enough to warrant support. Dean Elgar showed form against Gloucestershire but wasn't quite in tune so will probably miss out. Shame Jacques Kallis is not playing, though, as he would have been well-supported.

Recommended bet
Lay the side batting first for 250 or more at around 2.809/5

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Dancing On Ice: KK to suffer a KO?

Dancing On Ice / Eliot Pollak / 16 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ta-ra, Kerry. Your time has come

"Newton’s 3rd law of Reality Television states that Action and Reaction are opposite and equal. It is therefore inevitable that having survived unfairly this time around, the producers will sate the public’s clamour for justice, and dispense of the Pete Best of Atomic Kitten this time around (she is [1.78] to go on Sunday night.)"

'Fix' talk has filled the air since last week's skate-off and the public may take their anger out on la Katona, says Eliot Pollak

Whilst much of the world rages about trivial matters such as cruel dictatorships, or flagrant abuses of political power, the PR gurus here in the UK know their public. Our squalid, childish minds are too fixed on the real issues of the day, to worry about epoch-defining revolutions.

If the X Factor taught us anything (and that in itself is open to debate), it taught us that the British public are suckers for a judging controversy - nothing is more guaranteed to have the tabloids a-gushing, and that certainly includes overthrows of naughty dictators. Such scandals may get the public annoyed - there may even be a day of rage who knows. But the free publicity in the papers will certainly compensate for the one or two viewers who switch off in disgust, and write letters to the Daily Mail.

In short, it has been a week of MASSIVE CONTROVERSY. First up, the old women who phone up to cast their votes on these kinds of shows are livid that Kerry Katona survived the weekend's skate off and fix talk is in the air.

However, Newton's 3rd law of Reality Television states that Action and Reaction are opposite and equal. It is therefore inevitable that having survived unfairly this time around, the producers will sate the public's clamour for justice, and dispense of the Pete Best of Atomic Kitten this time around (she is [1.78] to go on Sunday night.) As Tahrir Sqaure showed, the public can only be pushed so far.

The bigger scandal in terms of impacting on the eventual result however, could be what we are already calling Attwater-Gate (see what we did there.) Hot favourite Sam Attwater, hitherto a shoe-in, has admitted that his romance with a certain dance partner was all just for show. Who'd have guessed. Pure publicity. Their 'romps' were made up - he'd never so much as slightly smashed it, let alone hung out the front or even back.

Attwater remains the man to beat; [1.3] to top-score this week, and [1.78] to win outright. Were there to be a backlash from the more romantically-inclined voters however, a gentlemanly figure could emerge triumphant in his place. Johnson Beharry, currently at 16 outright and 6.2 to be top male, certainly fits that bill.

'Fix' talk has filled the air since last week's skate-off and the public may take their anger out on la Katona, says Eliot Pollak...

Revelations of x-rated activities between the Dancing on Ice hot favourite and his partner may not have resonated particularly well with his core fans, says Eliot Pollak...

The Loose Women star was a little too loose with dance partner Gareth Gates and the time has come to bid farewell, says Eliot Pollak...

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