Dancing On Ice Betting: Corrie's Kirk skating on thin ice

Dancing On Ice / Simon Hopper / 24 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Down and out: Andy Whyment is in danger of being eliminated this week

"In terms of pure skating ability you have to say that Sam has the edge and with just five weeks to go, I can’t see Andy’s support base carrying him too much further in the competition."

This week's elimination is very tough to call says Simon Hopper, but Coronation Street's Kirk Sutherland - aka Andy Whyment - is likely to depart if in a skate-off.

I flagged up Heidi Range to be eliminated at [3.0] in last weekend's Dancing On Ice but this Sunday looks a much tougher heat to call.

If you believe the market then four skaters are in real danger of departing on Sunday - Sam Nixon, Andy Whyment, Chemmy Alcott and Jennifer Ellison. There is very little to choose between them and I'd be shocked if these four are separated by more than five points in the elimination betting come show time.

Sam recorded the lowest score of anyone left in the competition last Sunday and he was in the skate-off just three weeks ago so his credentials are obvious. Andy posted his best ever mark (19.5) last time out and has never been in the danger zone before, but he still has the lowest average score of all the remaining contestants. Chemmy is now a skate-off regular with viewers obviously not connecting with her, despite a half-decent performance on the last show. Jennifer cut her head badly two weeks ago and hasn't been progressing as fast as the other skaters, though she still looks a cut above this lot (no pun intended) and I'd be surprised if she went this week.

What you have to think to yourself here is - who would survive a skate-off? Jennifer's the best of the four skaters and she would definitely start favourite to survive over any of the other contenders. Chemmy also has decent ability on the ice and she's already survived two skate-offs so we know she won't go down without a fight.

That leaves Sam and Andy; and at the odds I'd rather take a chance on the latter. In terms of pure skating ability you have to say that Sam has the edge and with just five weeks to go, I can't see Andy's support base carrying him too much further in the competition.

It's tough this week - really tough - but Andy's the weakest skater and that could just turn out to be the all-important factor. I expect him to trade at around the [4.0] mark when the market increases in liquidity.

Recommended bet: Andy Whyment to be eliminated @ [4.0]

Sugababes star Heidi Range stumbled last week but this week she could be falling out of the competition says Simon Hopper. And don't rule out Andy Whyment joining her in this week's double elimination....

Do you know what Rosemary scored last week? Simon Hopper is more than happy to tell you, several times in fact, but he's not letting the fact that she's boring put him off backing her again this week....

It's elimination time again in Dancing on Ice and Simon Hopper is backing an old favourite to go once more...

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Irish Oaks Betting: Dancing Rain to complete Epsom & Curragh double?

Tipping / Timeform / 13 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Dancing Rain (red cap) may struggle to confirm form with those who finished behind her in the Epsom Oaks

"Normally, the Epsom Oaks is a good indicator of who is the best middle-distance three-year-old filly of their generation, but the way the race was run gives half of the field excuses."

This Sunday sees William Haggas' Dancing Rain bid to become the third British filly in as many years to do the Oaks double. Timeform's Paul Robson assesses what chance she has...

Dancing Rain has come a long way in a short time, her victory at Epsom coming just six weeks after winning a Newbury maiden on her reappearance, and although she improved to finish second in a listed race at the Berkshire track next time, her Oaks win still came as something of a surprise to most, returning a Betfair SP of [29.0].

Dancing Rain's classic success was arguably down to the tactics deployed by Johnny Murtagh, who was allowed to go off in front unchallenged. Murtagh stacked the runners up just before Tattenham Corner and kicked off the final bend, turning a middle-distance classic into a sprint. Understandably, not many runners could get into the race, and Dancing Rain bravely fought off the challenge of Aidan O'Brien's Wonder of Wonders, scoring by three quarters of a length.

The strong suspicion is that many of those Dancing Rain beat at Epsom will improve past her, hence the fact she can be backed at [5.3] to complete the Oaks double while the runner-up form Epsom is a short as [2.16].

Like many of those that ran at Epsom, Wonder of Wonders was disadvantaged by the steady gallop, even though she was better placed than many racing in second. She was the only filly to put up a strong challenge to Dancing Rain, going as short as [1.11] in-running on Betfair, but the front-runner had kept just enough in reserve. Wonder of Wonders is a big, rangy filly, who will probably be better suited by the more galloping track at the Curragh, and the chances are that there's still a big chunk of improvement in her. She has an obvious chance of giving O'Brien his fourth Irish Oaks in six years, but her price fully reflects that.

Another leading Ballydoyle contender is Irish 1000 Guineas and Pretty Polly winner Misty For Me, who is available at [8.0]. A very impressive display when defeating multiple Group 1 winner Midday at the Curragh by six lengths for her latest success makes her the Timeform top rated, but that that was over a mile and quarter, when dictating a steady gallop under a shrewd Seamie Heffernan ride before unleashing a devastating turn of foot to quicken clear, and there are doubts about her at Sunday's trip, a mile and a half seeming to stretch her stamina when fifth in the Oaks at Epsom.

Godolphin's Blue Bunting ([6.0]) has also tasted 1000 Guineas success, beating Together by three quarters of a length at Newmarket, but unlike Misty For Me she is very much bred to be an Oaks filly (by Dynaformer and from a staying family). Blue Bunting came with a late surge as her stamina kicked in at HQ, one of the first off the bridle but responding all the time, and her run in the Oaks can easily be excused, poorly positioned in mid-field and having little chance to land a blow (finished fourth). Godolphin have never won the Irish Oaks, but that record could well be broken as this race is likely to suit her a lot more than Epsom and she's potentially even better than she showed at Newmarket.

Ribblesdale winner Banimpire ([12.0]) proved her stamina at Royal Ascot last time, knuckling down to see off Field of Dreams by a short head. A tough and consistent filly who has won five of her last six starts, Banimpire is sure to give her running but may be vulnerable to the improvers.

Jessie Harrington's Laughing Lashes overcame a disappointing run on the Rowley Mile in the 1000 Guineas to stay on from rear into third in the Irish equivalent, but her pedigree suggests that the four furlong step up in trip will be too much.

Normally, the Epsom Oaks is a good indicator of who is the best middle-distance three-year-old filly of their generation, but the way the race was run gives half of the field excuses. It would be disappointing if Wonder of Wonders wasn't able to improve, but her price is too short. On the other hand, 1000 Guineas winner Blue Bunting can be excused her Epsom run and, at a current price of [6.0], looks the value pick.

Recommendation

Back Blue Bunting @ [6.0] in the Irish Oaks at the Curragh on Sunday

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St Nicholas Abbey heads the market for the Betfair sponsored King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on July 23, but the value lies elsewhere. Timeform's Mark Powell-Bevan explains why he'll be betting against the favourite......

Three selections for today's meetings at Downpatrick and Killarney....

There are some useful performers on show in this minor event over a mile......

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Dancing on Ice 2011: Our verdict on the final three

Dancing On Ice / Eliot Pollak / 24 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can season-long favourite Sam Attwater justify his position at the top of the market?

"At one stage, the boy Attwater was so hot, even the sun was jealous."

It's a three-way battle as Dancing On Ice reaches its cool crescendo - but who is the pick of the odds? Let Eliot Pollak take you by the hand and skate through the final three contenders

Nothing says beer, takeaway and some comfy clothes more than the final of a big reality television competition. Except perhaps, Paul Gascoigne pitching up at the scene of a man-hunt. Nevertheless, in the absence of the genial Geordie, a night in-front of the telly is the best we can do.

Here is your guide as to who will win Dancing on Ice 2011

Sam Attwater ([2.0])
At one stage, the boy Attwater was so hot, even the sun was jealous. But his grasp on the big prize has slipped slightly of late, and he has drifted steadily for weeks, out from his zenith of [1.44].

Yet there are plenty of good omens for him. Fans of pretty patterns might be interested to know that the winning genders from the previous five series read like a dinner party seating plan - girl, boy, girl, boy, girl... as the only male left, it's in the bag for Attwater. He is also very much the form man, having been absolutely spectacular in last week's solo dance.

One final thing in the big dog's favour is that Justin Beiber - the closest thing to a deity we have - has decreed his desire for Attwater to win. Should Beiber's hysterical minions find the time to stop screaming and ghosting his dance moves, they may pick up the phone on their God's behalf. Because lets face it, he is unlikely to bother himself.

Laura Hamilton ([2.5])
There is precedent for a large upset in this show. A couple of years ago, it was supposed to be in the bag for Chris Fountain - the best ice skater from the start - but he lost out on the big night to Suzanne Shaw. Whoooooo? So an upset is not entirely out of the question.

In truth, Hamilton would make for a worthy winner. She's a graceful ice dancer, a judge's favourite, and will serve as perfect lads-mag fodder for many years to come. She has also had 'a journey' - so beloved by viewers of this sort of tripe.

Chloe Madeley ([9.6])
Madeley, although in the skate-off at the weekend, has the potential lethal combination of bulldog spirit and famous parents. In addition, first-time voters may be swayed by her Balboa pluckiness next to Hamilton's robotic grace. An outsider to win, but by no means an impossibility.

So there you have it. Place your money, slip on some pyjamas, and get the pizzas in. For what its worth, judge Jason Gardiner has rather pointlessly described the final as, "very neck-and-neck." Tosser.

It was all about Laura v Sam last week but, look!, Chloe Madeley's getting involved all of a sudden. Can this young 'born-to-be-a-D-list' star do the business, asks Eliot Pollak...

Watch out! Dancing On Ice has suddenly got interesting as the previously impregnable favourite Sam Attwater has been drawn into a battle for the winner's crown with Laura Hamilton...

Saucy Sam knows how to get the voters' hearts pumping faster and that makes him a skated shoo-in for top honours in the 2011 Dancing On Ice, says Eliot Pollak...

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Dancing On Ice: Enter Hamilton

Dancing On Ice / Eliot Pollak / 09 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Could Laura sneak up on the outside to deny long-term favourite Sam Attwater?

"Hamilton's ability on the ice, not to mention likeability, has transformed a runaway Sam Attwater victory, into an exciting two-horse race."

Watch out! Dancing On Ice has suddenly got interesting as the previously impregnable favourite Sam Attwater has been drawn into a battle for the winner's crown with Laura Hamilton

The obvious peril of any knock-out reality television show is that as the weeks progress, the number of eclectic and alluring characters diminish (particularly as the novelty characters, the Wagners et al, are gradually shoved out,) leaving some rather dull, albeit competent, remnants.

The success of the format thereon, depends on tension replacing variety. At the beginning we tune in because we like to laugh at fools. Then we tune in because we have really taken to that bloke from The Bill. Once he goes, the sole lure is drama.

DOI producers must therefore be incredibly grateful to Laura Hamilton. Her ability on the ice, not to mention likeability, has transformed a runaway Sam Attwater victory, into an exciting two-horse race. Reality telly voters, who notoriously love 'a journey', may see something in the previously unknown girl-next-door, rather than the slightly arrogant soap star.

Attwater is still the favourite - but he is now trading at above evens for the first time in weeks. Hamilton is in to [3.05], and is virtually unbackable in the 'without Attwater' market ([1.25]).

Indeed, judge Jason Gardiner now expects Hamilton to be the first ice-skater on the show to receive full marks for a performance. According to reports, her routines are now becoming so daring and intricate that medics have been placed on red alert to tend to her should she fall foul of motion sickness.

The only other horse in town is Chloe Madeley, and we mean that in a nice way. She is available at [6.2] in the Winners market, or [3.05] to be the best female. This week young Madeley has been grumbling to the press about the near-naked group tanning sessions that the contestants are encouraged to attend, in between gliding around ice rinks. Apparently, she's concerned about men gawking at her bits. Someone pass her the burka.

She has also complained to the tabloids that her boyfriend is TOO good looking. This may be an enormous tactical mistake - alienating the vast mob of voters who married absolutely revolting-looking men, and would love to have such a magnificent problem. She is [4.4] to be booted out this week.

War hero Johnson Beharry is above our mocking. So we turn to the fifth and final contestant still standing, Jeff Brazier. Big news for him this week was that he injured his neck in training. A few years ago, we would make a joke about being married to Jade Goody - so being used to pains in the neck. Not now though. Too soon. Too soon.

Watch out! Dancing On Ice has suddenly got interesting as the previously impregnable favourite Sam Attwater has been drawn into a battle for the winner's crown with Laura Hamilton...

Saucy Sam knows how to get the voters' hearts pumping faster and that makes him a skated shoo-in for top honours in the 2011 Dancing On Ice, says Eliot Pollak...

KK's gone but there's a new vacant blonde for punters to back for success. Meanwhile, will the public forgive Sam? Elliot Pollack selects this week's best D on I bets....

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Dancing On Ice: Sam plays the audience again

Dancing On Ice / Eliot Pollak / 02 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

It's all over bar the dancing (on ice, of course)

"Attwater told the buxom milkmaids who read Cosmopolitan magazine that he is cripplingly shy around women - the textbook boyband tactic, the equivalent of covering yourself in honey to attract mates. The women LOVE that drivel."

Saucy Sam knows how to get the voters' hearts pumping faster and that makes him a skated shoo-in for top honours in the 2011 Dancing On Ice, says Eliot Pollak

With that little-known awards ceremony, 'the Oscars', jamming up our tabloid newspapers, news from the ice rink this week, has been sparser than tourist buses in Libya. But in spite of all this, a momentum shift appears to have occurred. You can't touch it, you can't smell it, but man alive you can cop a feel.

Having wobbled of late, Sam Attwater appears to have played a cleverer game over the past few days, and stuck himself right back in the mix. In a most thrilling contrast, Attwater has counteracted his poise on the ice by floundering like a one-legged man in a butt-kicking contest, whenever he opens his heart and talks women.

First we had the pretend romance, then some serious backtracking, now he's told the buxom milkmaids who read Cosmopolitan magazine that he is cripplingly shy around women - the textbook boyband tactic, the equivalent of covering yourself in honey to attract mates. The women LOVE that drivel.

Far be it from us to rain on the parade womenfolk, but as history will tell you, he's probably lying, and in fact, has a pop at anything that moves. No matter, Attwater is running away with this, [1.86] to win, and money placed elsewhere is simply money wasted.

The betting suggests that the firm favourite to come second is Laura Hamilton, who currently lies at [3.5] on the markets. Her appearance in the skate-off last week however, has very much put the Cat Deeley amongst the pigeons. For the bold punters out there, a little nibble at [12.0] for her to be out this week may be surprisingly shrewd. For the more conservative amongst you, LH is [1.2] to be top lass, and [1.56] in the 'without Attwater' market.

Elsewhere amongst the D on I riff-raff, classy gentleman Jeff Brazier took a pop at the various cast members of The Only Way is Essex, by suggesting that they don't accurately capture the fierce intellect of the place. Instead, insists Brazier, viewers should look to Stacey Solomon and Olly Murs. Because they aren't on television enough obviously.

We could go on and on discussing Chloe Madeley's overdose of fake tan or Vanilla Ice's tears after being given the shove on Sunday night, or we could even do a paragraph or two on Holly Willoughby's anaemia. But instead the last word to Holly, who speaking of her illness said, "It was really weird waking up Monday morning saying, 'I don't know who went out.'" Incidentally, the majority of the British public share those sentiments. Just without the 'really weird' bit.

Saucy Sam knows how to get the voters' hearts pumping faster and that makes him a skated shoo-in for top honours in the 2011 Dancing On Ice, says Eliot Pollak...

KK's gone but there's a new vacant blonde for punters to back for success. Meanwhile, will the public forgive Sam? Elliot Pollack selects this week's best D on I bets....

'Fix' talk has filled the air since last week's skate-off and the public may take their anger out on la Katona, says Eliot Pollak...

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Dancing On Ice: Is Linda the dark horse?

Dancing On Ice / Eliot Pollak / 23 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

"Now priced at just [2.78], Hamilton has hit the magic [1.01] to finish in the top three."

KK's gone but there's a new vacant blonde for punters to back for success. Meanwhile, will the public forgive Sam? Elliot Pollack selects this week's best D on I bets.

When Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi stated, "Everyone who wills can hear the inner voice. It is within everyone," it seems he had successfully defined the global human yearning. He had articulated universality, and what every individual in the world truly seeks.

He was wrong however. ""Everyone's so eager for me to go out and get laid. So am I." So said Saturday's D on I evictee Kerry Katona in Tuesday's Sun. And who are we to argue? Literally, it is what everyone alive wants to see happen. Although perhaps with the words, 'flat under a heavy roller' appended to the sentiment.

It's like Atomic Kitten all over again for KK - dumped just as things were starting to get interesting. And indeed the show does go on. For fans of slightly vacant blonde women, it could be high time to switch allegiances to Laura Hamilton. Now priced at just [2.78], Hamilton has hit the magic [1.01] to finish in the top three. The kids' telly host is undoubtedly chief judge Gardiner's new favourite, and could cash in on Sam Attwater's halo slipping.

Following on from the 'did they? didn't they?' fauxmance with his icy-princess dance partner, Attwater is clearly unaware of when to just glide away and leave it. Just this week, he's been re-raking up the whole mess by insisting that they were together after all, but only for about eight minutes. Then the great love affair fizzled. We've all been there. Sadly, the voting public is made up of women who hate being lied to. Or women, as they're more commonly known. Attwater still trades at under evens however, priced at [1.94] to win the darn thing.

Meanwhile, it's been some week for Denise Welch. Eyebrows were raised when it was noted that she went to the theatre with Vanilla Ice (incidentally, what she also munched on at the interval.) She then cropped up in the communist weekly, Womens Own, bragging about misplacing a stone in weight. "I think the public loves me because I'm a trier" Welch beamed, in a brazen attempt to woo any voting cougars.
It may not be enough however. Welch remains 3.2 second favourite to be out this weekend, second only to Jeff Brazier, who is at 2.48. Brazier's slump may be connected to the papers' revelation on Monday that he has a secret, hot girlfriend. That is him done for one suspects. His goose is very much cooked.

KK's gone but there's a new vacant blonde for punters to back for success. Meanwhile, will the public forgive Sam? Elliot Pollack selects this week's best D on I bets....

'Fix' talk has filled the air since last week's skate-off and the public may take their anger out on la Katona, says Eliot Pollak...

Revelations of x-rated activities between the Dancing on Ice hot favourite and his partner may not have resonated particularly well with his core fans, says Eliot Pollak...

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Dancing On Ice: KK to suffer a KO?

Dancing On Ice / Eliot Pollak / 16 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ta-ra, Kerry. Your time has come

"Newton’s 3rd law of Reality Television states that Action and Reaction are opposite and equal. It is therefore inevitable that having survived unfairly this time around, the producers will sate the public’s clamour for justice, and dispense of the Pete Best of Atomic Kitten this time around (she is [1.78] to go on Sunday night.)"

'Fix' talk has filled the air since last week's skate-off and the public may take their anger out on la Katona, says Eliot Pollak

Whilst much of the world rages about trivial matters such as cruel dictatorships, or flagrant abuses of political power, the PR gurus here in the UK know their public. Our squalid, childish minds are too fixed on the real issues of the day, to worry about epoch-defining revolutions.

If the X Factor taught us anything (and that in itself is open to debate), it taught us that the British public are suckers for a judging controversy - nothing is more guaranteed to have the tabloids a-gushing, and that certainly includes overthrows of naughty dictators. Such scandals may get the public annoyed - there may even be a day of rage who knows. But the free publicity in the papers will certainly compensate for the one or two viewers who switch off in disgust, and write letters to the Daily Mail.

In short, it has been a week of MASSIVE CONTROVERSY. First up, the old women who phone up to cast their votes on these kinds of shows are livid that Kerry Katona survived the weekend's skate off and fix talk is in the air.

However, Newton's 3rd law of Reality Television states that Action and Reaction are opposite and equal. It is therefore inevitable that having survived unfairly this time around, the producers will sate the public's clamour for justice, and dispense of the Pete Best of Atomic Kitten this time around (she is [1.78] to go on Sunday night.) As Tahrir Sqaure showed, the public can only be pushed so far.

The bigger scandal in terms of impacting on the eventual result however, could be what we are already calling Attwater-Gate (see what we did there.) Hot favourite Sam Attwater, hitherto a shoe-in, has admitted that his romance with a certain dance partner was all just for show. Who'd have guessed. Pure publicity. Their 'romps' were made up - he'd never so much as slightly smashed it, let alone hung out the front or even back.

Attwater remains the man to beat; [1.3] to top-score this week, and [1.78] to win outright. Were there to be a backlash from the more romantically-inclined voters however, a gentlemanly figure could emerge triumphant in his place. Johnson Beharry, currently at 16 outright and 6.2 to be top male, certainly fits that bill.

'Fix' talk has filled the air since last week's skate-off and the public may take their anger out on la Katona, says Eliot Pollak...

Revelations of x-rated activities between the Dancing on Ice hot favourite and his partner may not have resonated particularly well with his core fans, says Eliot Pollak...

The Loose Women star was a little too loose with dance partner Gareth Gates and the time has come to bid farewell, says Eliot Pollak...

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Dancing On Ice: Atta-boy Attwater's sex talk douses his chances

Dancing On Ice / Eliot Pollak / 09 February 2011 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

That naughty boy Sam Attwater

"It turns out that Attwater and his skating partner have in fact been at it like skaters since day one, and even have gruesome nicknames for one another - Tai Tai and Shaneekwa."

Revelations of x-rated activities between the Dancing on Ice hot favourite and his partner may not have resonated particularly well with his core fans, says Eliot Pollak

The big tabloid splash of the D on I week was Gardinergate - with the acerbic judge naughtily making a nice blonde woman cry. The laws of modern television state that if you make jokes about women, you lose your job, whilst actually making a real woman cry entirely unnecessarily, is considered fair game. A great example to set for the next generation.

Whilst it may or may not be newsworthy, such shenanigans make no impact on the betting markets. Of more interest however, are the love lives of the participants, and this is where the second revelation of the week sprang, from hot favourite Sam Attwater ([1.57] to win, [1.1] to top score on Sunday.) It turns out that Attwater and his skating partner have in fact been at it like skaters since day one, and even have gruesome nicknames for one another - Tai Tai and Shaneekwa. As to which one is which, who the hell knows (or indeed cares), but it's this kind of overt sex talk that can turn swathes of broken-hearted voters against you. Big mistake Tai Tai. Or maybe Shaneekwa.

One may argue that previous precedents of loved-up partners (Tointon in last year's Strictly) have done contestants no harm in the ballot box. But there is unquestionably a massive difference in how the (largely female) public condemn a male celeb steamrollering his female partner on the one hand, and the far more acceptable female ravishing her male dancer (viewed as feminist aspirational rutting) on the other.

Elsewhere, one to keep a cheeky eye on is Laura Hamilton; [6.0] to win outright and [1.43] to finish as top female. The papers tell us she is taking the show so seriously, that she has even taken to training in the park with a boxing champion. Because if boxing doesn't help you win an ice dance show, I don't know what will.

Another one keeping their head down and getting on with it is Jeff Brazier. After the misjudged gay slurs (see previous issues), he's spent the week diligently working on his ice skating. If you're looking for a rank outsider should some great plague befall the Attwater, Brazier is your man at [34.0]. Certainly the [9.4] in the 'without Attwater' market is worth a look.

For Kerry Katona, however, the clock seems to be ticking ever louder. Jason Gardiner has equated watching her glide around an ice rink to being tortured. And not in a good way either. Not for the first time, KK could be soon searching for a dignified exit from the white stuff.

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