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/ Timeform / 13 July 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Dancing Rain (red cap) may struggle to confirm form with those who finished behind her in the Epsom Oaks
"Normally, the Epsom Oaks is a good indicator of who is the best middle-distance three-year-old filly of their generation, but the way the race was run gives half of the field excuses."
This Sunday sees William Haggas' Dancing Rain bid to become the third British filly in as many years to do the Oaks double. Timeform's Paul Robson assesses what chance she has...
Dancing Rain has come a long way in a short time, her victory at Epsom coming just six weeks after winning a Newbury maiden on her reappearance, and although she improved to finish second in a listed race at the Berkshire track next time, her Oaks win still came as something of a surprise to most, returning a Betfair SP of [29.0].
Dancing Rain's classic success was arguably down to the tactics deployed by Johnny Murtagh, who was allowed to go off in front unchallenged. Murtagh stacked the runners up just before Tattenham Corner and kicked off the final bend, turning a middle-distance classic into a sprint. Understandably, not many runners could get into the race, and Dancing Rain bravely fought off the challenge of Aidan O'Brien's Wonder of Wonders, scoring by three quarters of a length.
The strong suspicion is that many of those Dancing Rain beat at Epsom will improve past her, hence the fact she can be backed at [5.3] to complete the Oaks double while the runner-up form Epsom is a short as [2.16].
Like many of those that ran at Epsom, Wonder of Wonders was disadvantaged by the steady gallop, even though she was better placed than many racing in second. She was the only filly to put up a strong challenge to Dancing Rain, going as short as [1.11] in-running on Betfair, but the front-runner had kept just enough in reserve. Wonder of Wonders is a big, rangy filly, who will probably be better suited by the more galloping track at the Curragh, and the chances are that there's still a big chunk of improvement in her. She has an obvious chance of giving O'Brien his fourth Irish Oaks in six years, but her price fully reflects that.
Another leading Ballydoyle contender is Irish 1000 Guineas and Pretty Polly winner Misty For Me, who is available at [8.0]. A very impressive display when defeating multiple Group 1 winner Midday at the Curragh by six lengths for her latest success makes her the Timeform top rated, but that that was over a mile and quarter, when dictating a steady gallop under a shrewd Seamie Heffernan ride before unleashing a devastating turn of foot to quicken clear, and there are doubts about her at Sunday's trip, a mile and a half seeming to stretch her stamina when fifth in the Oaks at Epsom.
Godolphin's Blue Bunting ([6.0]) has also tasted 1000 Guineas success, beating Together by three quarters of a length at Newmarket, but unlike Misty For Me she is very much bred to be an Oaks filly (by Dynaformer and from a staying family). Blue Bunting came with a late surge as her stamina kicked in at HQ, one of the first off the bridle but responding all the time, and her run in the Oaks can easily be excused, poorly positioned in mid-field and having little chance to land a blow (finished fourth). Godolphin have never won the Irish Oaks, but that record could well be broken as this race is likely to suit her a lot more than Epsom and she's potentially even better than she showed at Newmarket.
Ribblesdale winner Banimpire ([12.0]) proved her stamina at Royal Ascot last time, knuckling down to see off Field of Dreams by a short head. A tough and consistent filly who has won five of her last six starts, Banimpire is sure to give her running but may be vulnerable to the improvers.
Jessie Harrington's Laughing Lashes overcame a disappointing run on the Rowley Mile in the 1000 Guineas to stay on from rear into third in the Irish equivalent, but her pedigree suggests that the four furlong step up in trip will be too much.
Normally, the Epsom Oaks is a good indicator of who is the best middle-distance three-year-old filly of their generation, but the way the race was run gives half of the field excuses. It would be disappointing if Wonder of Wonders wasn't able to improve, but her price is too short. On the other hand, 1000 Guineas winner Blue Bunting can be excused her Epsom run and, at a current price of [6.0], looks the value pick.
Recommendation
Back Blue Bunting @ [6.0] in the Irish Oaks at the Curragh on Sunday
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